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First Base in 2013 and beyond
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Post by nothingball on Aug 7, 2013 12:23:36 GMT -5
Jesus Montero, buy low(er) candidate. This one actually piqued my interest. Certainly a reclaimation project at this point with bad results in the bigs and now a 50 game suspension to boot. However, it wasn't that long ago that he was a 20 year old tearing it up in AAA with the bat. Absolutely not a catcher, but 1B probably isn't that farfetched if he can get the bat back in order. He also will be completing his 23 year old season this year, so there is time.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 12:50:15 GMT -5
The Pitch/FX numbers are likely more accurate. In any case his overall swing percentage is way down.
Using the Pitch F/X data yielded 27.6%. Chances of a randomly achieving a 30.5% K rate if your true skill level is 27.6% over 157 ABs? 31.875%
Using the other data yielded 24.5%. Chances of 30.5% K rate in a random sample of 157 ABs with a 24.5% mean? 30%.
Like I said there is likely some elevation going on here. Model only explains 79% of variance in K/PA %. Not terribly accurate.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 7, 2013 12:57:22 GMT -5
Our 1st base situation is not going to be perfect this year, or probably next. The options are limited. We might as well continue to use Carp and Napoli mainly this year. In 2014, there is a chance we can pick up a solid RH bat there but to me it probably isn't Napoli. By year end in 2014 I think there is a chance that Cechinni can emerge and possibly take over that slot. The status quo is not ideal but if it isn't Napoli there is a chance it is cheap.
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Post by oleary25 on Aug 7, 2013 12:59:55 GMT -5
I think that's a great idea. However i propose giving Ryan Lavarnway a look @ 1B ? His bat could profile well there with the the versatility of being able to catch in a pinch.Remember he's not too far removed from hitting 30 bombs. So I say why not both? Most likely Salty gets resigned. So playing Lavarnway there his bat should come around. Plus Papi retires next season so Montero could slide in there as well. Just an idea discuss.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Aug 7, 2013 13:04:57 GMT -5
I think WMB long-term place on this team is at 1B. I expect WMB to start at 3B next year and after Garin gets here, WMB will move to first.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 7, 2013 13:20:20 GMT -5
Don't think Carp will ever be a FT player either and is best platooned. If Boston decides the price of a Michael Morse is too high, would very much like to see something along the lines of Gomes worked out at 1b, much like Nava was last year to get him ready to play some 1b if they needed him. You never can tell. Gomes could be a natural for the position if he played it for a couple weeks during the spring.
Would also allow them to get his bat in the lineup more if Ells leaves, JBJ is in Center and Nava in LF in 2014.
Still think Morse should be the prime consideration for a platoon with Carp, though getting some AB's vs RH pitchers as well. Cheaper than Napoli next year and massive RH power.
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Post by nothingball on Aug 7, 2013 13:22:46 GMT -5
I think WMB long-term place on this team is at 1B. I expect WMB to start at 3B next year and after Garin gets here, WMB will move to first. WMB profiles as a better defender than Garin based on reports from this site. Can't imagine they'd move the better defender to first in this circumstance. I also don't believe our 1B of the future is currently on the roster. Personal speculation.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 7, 2013 14:00:07 GMT -5
I think WMB long-term place on this team is at 1B. I expect WMB to start at 3B next year and after Garin gets here, WMB will move to first. WMB profiles as a better defender than Garin based on reports from this site. Can't imagine they'd move the better defender to first in this circumstance. I also don't believe our 1B of the future is currently on the roster. Personal speculation. I believe Garin is more likely to move to LF than WMB is to move to 1B. Agreed that the 1B of our future is not currently in the system.
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Post by jmei on Aug 7, 2013 14:27:15 GMT -5
If Middlebrooks can't hit enough to stick at 3B, there's no chance he'll hit well enough to be anything close to a regular at 1B. If he can't crack a .300 OBP, even the Lyle Overbay/James Loney-esque veteran retreads will be better options.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 15:30:02 GMT -5
Basically the conclusion is that there are a lot of bad options and there aren't any in our system in part because Travis Shaw has been awful this year. So it's basically hope that Carp isn't really a 30% K guy, or sign Justin Morneau and hope that he finds his old self.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 7, 2013 15:37:15 GMT -5
Morneau is a lefty. I might be slightly more inclined to go with Konerko or Morse or Hart to get a righty power guy in there. Unless they get another RHH power guy for the OF, but that seems unlikely. I know Xander should help next year, but still . . . .
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 7, 2013 16:29:33 GMT -5
If there is not a bopper available anywhere at least go cheap. If it's Napoli again at least drop him to 7th or so in the lineup. We need to at some point get a real stud at 1st. Whatever it takes.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 7, 2013 17:12:33 GMT -5
The potential left fielders are just so much better offensively than the available first basemen, that I would rather look for internal options at first.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 7, 2013 18:04:45 GMT -5
Maureen Mullen ?@maureenamullen 14m Farrell on Napoli day off: He needed some focused work to try to reproduce that more direct bat path thru the point of contact. #redsoxtalk
so if he gets his swing fixed can we stop complaining?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 7, 2013 18:26:08 GMT -5
Lets see if he gets his swing "fixed" first.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 12:51:58 GMT -5
The Sox farm system needs a player that projects to be a big-bopping first baseman. Maybe Brentz if he was moved to 1B, but his plate discipline is bad...
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 8, 2013 13:07:25 GMT -5
I don't think Brentz, Lavarnway, or Middlebrooks are anything close to the answer at first base. At the moment, they barely seem to hit well enough to deserve to play their current positions, let alone make an attempt at first. Brentz and WMB are going to struggle to post a .300 OBP, and Lavarnway seems like a shell of his former self at the plate, and I doubt he'd have any defensive value at first.
I think Morales, Morse, and Hart are intriguing options. Hart K's a lot, but he's got power that would fit Fenway, and he's a very serviceable outfielder as well. Morse can have value too, but I don't look at him as a full-time player, and his outfield defense is atrocious. Both those guys will be 32 next season too.
I like the idea of signing Kendrys Morales (just turned 30, switch hitter) to a 2-year deal, and enjoying a consistent hitting first baseman. He'd need days off more frequently than your typical starter, but that's a perfect situation when you have Carp and Nava around to fill in while sharing time in left.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Aug 8, 2013 15:05:15 GMT -5
I don't think we should completely give up on Travis Shaw. Yes the .216 average is way too low, but he has 65 BB's and has a .736 OPS with that awful BA weighing him down. If he could manage to hit .260, with his power and on base skills that OPS could jump to the mid-to-high .800's easy, and he could be a solid major league 1B.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 15:22:35 GMT -5
I don't think we should completely give up on Travis Shaw. Yes the .216 average is way too low, but he has 65 BB's and has a .736 OPS with that awful BA weighing him down. If he could manage to hit .260, with his power and on base skills that OPS could jump to the mid-to-high .800's easy, and he could be a solid major league 1B. At this point I don't even see how Shaw plays in Pawtucket next year. I hate to repeat this, but although walks are wonderful things, if you can't hit you don't play.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 15:39:34 GMT -5
I don't think Brentz, Lavarnway, or Middlebrooks are anything close to the answer at first base. At the moment, they barely seem to hit well enough to deserve to play their current positions, let alone make an attempt at first. Brentz and WMB are going to struggle to post a .300 OBP, and Lavarnway seems like a shell of his former self at the plate, and I doubt he'd have any defensive value at first. I think Morales, Morse, and Hart are intriguing options. Hart K's a lot, but he's got power that would fit Fenway, and he's a very serviceable outfielder as well. Morse can have value too, but I don't look at him as a full-time player, and his outfield defense is atrocious. Both those guys will be 32 next season too. I like the idea of signing Kendrys Morales (just turned 30, switch hitter) to a 2-year deal, and enjoying a consistent hitting first baseman. He'd need days off more frequently than your typical starter, but that's a perfect situation when you have Carp and Nava around to fill in while sharing time in left. What exactly happened to Lavarnway? It seems like he stopped hitting after 2011. That doesn't mean that he can't break out of it though. But it's weird that he just suddenly lost a lot of his power.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2013 16:38:32 GMT -5
I don't think Brentz, Lavarnway, or Middlebrooks are anything close to the answer at first base. At the moment, they barely seem to hit well enough to deserve to play their current positions, let alone make an attempt at first. Brentz and WMB are going to struggle to post a .300 OBP, and Lavarnway seems like a shell of his former self at the plate, and I doubt he'd have any defensive value at first. I think Morales, Morse, and Hart are intriguing options. Hart K's a lot, but he's got power that would fit Fenway, and he's a very serviceable outfielder as well. Morse can have value too, but I don't look at him as a full-time player, and his outfield defense is atrocious. Both those guys will be 32 next season too. I like the idea of signing Kendrys Morales (just turned 30, switch hitter) to a 2-year deal, and enjoying a consistent hitting first baseman. He'd need days off more frequently than your typical starter, but that's a perfect situation when you have Carp and Nava around to fill in while sharing time in left. What exactly happened to Lavarnway? It seems like he stopped hitting after 2011. That doesn't mean that he can't break out of it though. But it's weird that he just suddenly lost a lot of his power. Lost 25 pounds two different times in the same offseason, tried to shorten his swing to close a hole and it backfired by sapping his power, and caught more than he ever had before in a season. No idea what the deal is this year, but I was inclined to give him a mulligan for 2012.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 8, 2013 18:17:40 GMT -5
What exactly happened to Lavarnway? It seems like he stopped hitting after 2011. That doesn't mean that he can't break out of it though. But it's weird that he just suddenly lost a lot of his power. Lost 25 pounds two different times in the same offseason, tried to shorten his swing to close a hole and it backfired by sapping his power, and caught more than he ever had before in a season. No idea what the deal is this year, but I was inclined to give him a mulligan for 2012. Seems to me that pitchers are attempting to tie him up inside more than ever as well and not allow him to use the power he has left also. Am thinking he may be someone who may need to go to a different approach at the plate all together, if his age was such a detriment to the entire procedure and the fact he would have to be moved off the 40 man roster and lost while the issues with his swing/stance was being worked out. I think he could still be a worthwhile catcher at the MLB level. He is a very intelligent player who would work as hard as anyone to overcome any shortcomings in his game. Time is the negative factor now with him. Yeah, don't think he's any kind of candidate for any 1b use, his speed on the bases is probably slower than Ortiz even. Movement around the bag would not be a pretty site and that's not anything that could probably ever be fixed with any amount of work effort on his part.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 9, 2013 14:00:45 GMT -5
For fun, go to boston.redsox.mlb.com/bos/history/players.jsp and plug in "first base" and the year you were born. It's an amazing collection of AAAA players, players at the end of their careers, guys we traded away Sparky Lyle for, guys we traded away and then gave up a better 1b to get back (the late Boomer), guys who left as FA (Mo Vaughn after several good years, Esasky after 1 only to become dizzy), etc., and a huge number of them played 1-3 years. And it looks like it's going to be that way for the next ten years, too!
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Post by wheelz on Aug 9, 2013 14:26:34 GMT -5
I am more of an Almanzar fan though I know he is very raw defensively, but I am curious who everyone else would prefer as the future at first base?
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Post by honkbal on Aug 9, 2013 14:29:55 GMT -5
What's behind door #3?
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