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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 9, 2013 14:30:59 GMT -5
I'm going to go out on the limb (the very strong and sturdy one) and say the first baseman of the future is outside of this organization. Buuuut if I had to pick one guy, Almanzar.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2013 14:35:25 GMT -5
The real difference is bat speed. Shaw featured good pitch recognition and approach skills combined with decent power which allowed him to do very well in the lower minors. However now that he's in AA, his bat speed is getting exposed. The result is a lot of K's and weak contact.
Almanzar has always had plus batspeed, but less refined approach and rough inconsistent swing mechanics. For me, Almanzar advances to Pawtucket next year while Shaw is the 1B for Portland again.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2013 14:41:50 GMT -5
Part of his problem is that he's a really big guy and not all that atheltic. Because of this catching probably wears on him more than others. I still think he works as a bench player for a club who can catch some, play 1B, and pinch hit for you. It probably won't be for the Red Sox, and he's a harder fit in an era of 13 man pitching staffs. Earl Weaver would have found a way to make him useful. Does have an option left so you could probably move him if need be.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Aug 9, 2013 14:51:34 GMT -5
I'll always take the higher on base guy to the flashier player. Good pitch recognition doesn't really slump. I'm guessing both start next year in AA unless one of them just tears it up in the AFL (if they go) or in the Spring.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 9, 2013 14:52:29 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Almanzar will need to be protected this off-season on the 40-man. Neither is worth protecting. First base is one of the few positions in the minors we have no real solid prospects. I certainly am glad it is first and not short or third or even catcher, but there is NO ONE who looks like a potential major leaguer at first for the Sox. I understand you are asking who between those two.....so if I had to....it would be Shaw. I have never bought into Almanzar after watching him nonchalantly play in Greenville. He has progressed, but I don't see enough upside.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 9, 2013 15:00:04 GMT -5
why is this not in the "First base..." thread?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 9, 2013 15:05:16 GMT -5
Few possibilities to chose from this off season, but I guess at this moment I'd like to take a chance on someone like Michael Morse. I'm so disappointed with the output from one Mike Napoli. I figured it was a foregone conclusion he would hit, at least, 30 homers this year. His defense has been surprisingly good and he has been a great team mate, but I can't stomach the strikeouts. I had no idea he would swing and miss this much! I think his swing has actually impacted the weather in New England.. Morse can play in the outfield and give us some flexibility and Carp can do the same. MAYBE between these two we can get 25+ homers next year. at 1st.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2013 15:18:14 GMT -5
I'll always take the higher on base guy to the flashier player. Good pitch recognition doesn't really slump. I'm guessing both start next year in AA unless one of them just tears it up in the AFL (if they go) or in the Spring. Then you are going to end up with a lot of guys who can't hit. Take the flashier player.
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Post by timbobaggans on Aug 9, 2013 15:22:16 GMT -5
Travis Shaw is number 50 on this site. It seems wrong though. I get he is hitting .215 but he has hit 15 homers and has an OBP of .332, which is pretty good considering how low his average his OPBP is great. So he will draw plenty of walks which, is as good as a hit. Click the link below to see my post about Shaw. timsportssplash.com/2013/06/27/prospect-watch-travis-shaw/
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Post by elguapo on Aug 9, 2013 19:13:16 GMT -5
Shaw had (has?) a narrow window to hit to become a decent major leaguer and at this point it doesn't look like he's going to get there. He hits for some power and draws some walks ... but not much of anything else, and doesn't have enough power or enough on-base ability to poke through.
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Post by artfuldodger on Aug 10, 2013 13:26:37 GMT -5
Adam Laroche would be an intriguing trade target who could be had for reasonable package.
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Post by buffs4444 on Aug 10, 2013 17:26:50 GMT -5
Deal for Logan Morrison, who's heading into his arb years. Marlins are loathe to spend $$, meaning he's possibly available. So unless the taxpayers can be hoodwinked/conned into supplementing the Marlins yet again, arbitration years will continue to mean trade candidate years in Miami.....
Or I'm still on the Montero bandwagon....
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 10, 2013 18:14:02 GMT -5
Deal for Logan Morrison, who's heading into his arb years. Marlins are loathe to spend $$, meaning he's possibly available. So unless the taxpayers can be hoodwinked/conned into supplementing the Marlins yet again, arbitration years will continue to mean trade candidate years in Miami..... Or I'm still on the Montero bandwagon.... You and Montero's Mom! (meant as a joke!)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 11, 2013 7:23:27 GMT -5
I wouldn't put that much stock in the formula. It's based on a straight linear regression, but obviously there have to be interactions between the plate discipline factors: the impact of O-Swing on strikeouts is hugely dependent on O-Contact, for instance. And he omits Zone%, which is definitely a factor. I pulled all the 2007-2013 discipline data from Pitch/fx (minimum 180 PA), which is much more accurate than the BIS data he used, and started messing around. It's not as simple as you might think. The expected correlation between K rate and O-Swing is only present for guys with less than 425 PA; in fact, for guys with 425+, there is an inverse correlation that's more or less significant (p = .06). The two groups of hitters have identical O-Swing and Z-Swings; the 425+ PA guys make slightly better contact (.668 vs. .644 O, .886 vs. .879 Z) and see less pitches in the zone (.494 vs. .503). They have significantly more power (.042 vs. .032 HR/Contact, .307 vs. .293 BABIP). What I've got so far is a formula that predicts Zone% based on HR/Contact, BABIP, and XBH / Hits in Play. R is .57; team and ballpark context appears to be a big factor, as witnessed by the leader board of guys who saw more pitches in the zone than expected, minimum 325 PA: Dustin Pedroia 2010 (.564 vs. expected .491) Josh Willingham 2011 (.538 vs. .470) Marco Scutaro 2010 (.578 vs. .512) Kevin Youkilis 2008 (.540 vs. .474) J.D. Drew 2010 (.544 vs. .483) Whereas the guys who see fewer strikes than expected are guys who ... well, the top 5 seasons are Vlad Guerrero, Pablo Sandoval, Sandoval, Guerrero, and Guerrero. So my next step will be to try to derive a better pair of formulas for K% and BB%, including both actual and expected Zone%, and using interactions.
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 11, 2013 9:51:32 GMT -5
Trade some pitching prospects for Hosmer. And yes KC made him available this past offseason for some pitching help. Might be inclined to do it again for the right price.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 11, 2013 10:32:54 GMT -5
There is no reason to believe Hosmer, who is having a breakout year, will be available. Please take any conversation on specific players to the trade proposal sub forum.
Edit: To clarify - saying "the Red Sox should trade X for Eric Hosmer" belongs in the Trade Proposal Subforum". Inquiring as to whether the Mets might make Ike Davis available is fine, but trade proposals involving specific players don't belong in this thread.
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Post by rider on Aug 11, 2013 10:55:57 GMT -5
I wonder if the Mets are gonna make Ike Davis available this winter. He has been better since they called him back to the team after his AAA stint. If he shows he can hit for power again with a decent average the rest of the year I'd offer a pretty good prospect for him as our 1B solution
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 11, 2013 11:25:44 GMT -5
We could go with a combination of gomes/carp/nava at LF and 1st for another year... they're all signed aren't they?
Since we don't really appear to have the long term solutions at these positions in the minors, it looks like a trade might make the most sense in the coming months/years. From what I've seen, the options in free agency aren't that good.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2013 11:31:39 GMT -5
Adam Laroche would be an intriguing trade target who could be had for reasonable package. Hunter Strickland and Argenis Diaz. #Done At this point, I'm okay with Nava/Gomes/Carp/Salty being LF-1B-DH. I think the OF will end up thin though, especially if Nava is the best hitter for 1B (likely), and Hassan will play a big role on next year's team. I don't trust JBJ or Victorino to play more than 140 games, which leaves a lot of RF to cover. Like we all agreed on last year... any talk of Travis Shaw as a MLB 1B is a joke, right? If he ever starts 30+ games in a single year in a Boston uniform, something will have gone terribly wrong. I'm not sure "yeah but he's only hitting .214!" is as strong an argument for his IsoD as you might think.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 11, 2013 11:38:34 GMT -5
Travis Shaw is number 50 on this site. It seems wrong though. I get he is hitting .215 but he has hit 15 homers and has an OBP of .332, which is pretty good considering how low his average his OPBP is great. So he will draw plenty of walks which, is as good as a hit. Click the link below to see my post about Shaw. timsportssplash.com/2013/06/27/prospect-watch-travis-shaw/ Shameless self-promotion aside, that a player draws walks in A/AA ball doesn't mean it'll translate to MLB. A player who cant hit won't be getting a lot of pitches outside the strike zone at the MLB level, and the pitchers who throw outside the zone to players who can't hit won't be pitching at the MLB level.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Aug 11, 2013 12:33:45 GMT -5
I'd sign Hart to a one-year deal for 2014. In 2015 I'd put Cecchini or WMB at 1st base. The worse defensive 3rd baseman over to 1b.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 11, 2013 12:52:47 GMT -5
Don't really get the fuss over the "future" 1B. Almost every year you can find some one tha can fill in there and do a job.
I hope people don't go back to the mentality of wanting well above avg performance in every spot in the order. We've been there and it didn't work so well.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 11, 2013 21:14:53 GMT -5
A name that I haven't seen mentioned is Michael Cuddyer. He's going to be 35 in March. Has one year left on his contract(10.5m) and Colorado's not likely to contend. Has a career OPS of 806. He's played a little 1b each of the last 5 years with Morneau's injury situation and Helton's age; 34,84,46, 26 and 11 this year. Could bat 5th. And, if he produces. Would be a good candidate to extend for 2-3 years until we find a 1b of the future. Colorado needs big league ready pitching and I think we match up well with them trade wise.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 11, 2013 21:30:28 GMT -5
Jose Dariel Abreu, rumored to be a Stantonesque hitter, has defected from Cuba. He'll be 27 next year, probably a great guy to target.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 11, 2013 22:04:00 GMT -5
get him
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