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9-20-9/22 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by Guidas on Sept 21, 2013 20:06:00 GMT -5
So this is how we're going to give up home field? Ugh.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 21, 2013 20:06:24 GMT -5
The Ross / Buchholz combo does control the run game better than the others. Occasionally Buchholz throws it away but they do hold the runners on well. Ross is certainly proving some value today.
And even though Davis just got thrown out I still make a major push for him as our 5th OF next year especially if we lose Ellsbury. He is the closest thing to an automatic base stealer in the league and a guy like that being available in late innings is huge. Look at the impact of Billy Hamilton with the Reds. 8 AB so far this year. 10 steals. Zero CS. He has won 3 games for that team with his legs alone. Stealing bases to get in position to score. Scoring from 2nd when no one else could. That is game changing speed and is extremely valuable even if he only is used mainly as a pinch runner. And Davis would be a decent OF sub as well. He is probably available for Jonny Gomes money and he is at least as valuable.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 21, 2013 20:14:04 GMT -5
Thought we were talking defense. I love Xander's bat. He'll have to work hard to be average with the glove.Agreed. Drew's play lately (two great assists on the caught stealings tonight) coupled with Middlebrooks at first tonight makes me wonder if we should offer Drew a long term deal after all. --Now, another Drew hit. Professional. I think Drew/Bogearts at SS/3B probably a better left side than Bogearts/WMB at SS/3B, but at the same time, I want no part of WMB at first base. Ultimately someone probably pays way too much for Drew and makes the whole conversation academic. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 21, 2013 21:03:59 GMT -5
So this is how we're going to give up home field? Ugh. You're surprised? |
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Post by nationinthesouth on Sept 21, 2013 21:15:03 GMT -5
We will just get 7 per from the starters...Not a problem
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Post by Guidas on Sept 21, 2013 21:29:14 GMT -5
Well Thornton looks to miss the playoffs - I hope.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 21, 2013 22:58:42 GMT -5
The Ross / Buchholz combo does control the run game better than the others. Occasionally Buchholz throws it away but they do hold the runners on well. Ross is certainly proving some value today. And even though Davis just got thrown out I still make a major push for him as our 5th OF next year especially if we lose Ellsbury. He is the closest thing to an automatic base stealer in the league and a guy like that being available in late innings is huge. Look at the impact of Billy Hamilton with the Reds. 8 AB so far this year. 10 steals. Zero CS. He has won 3 games for that team with his legs alone. Stealing bases to get in position to score. Scoring from 2nd when no one else could. That is game changing speed and is extremely valuable even if he only is used mainly as a pinch runner. And Davis would be a decent OF sub as well. He is probably available for Jonny Gomes money and he is at least as valuable. I get what you are saying about Davis. he also can play all 3 OF positions and not embarrass himself at any, then come in and steal a base when he isn't starting. The big knock on him is that he's a MAJOR hacker. he just doesn't walk. Boston today (and all weekend) made the mistake of throwing him pitches in the zone, it wasn't necessary. he's a WMB hacker without the power. If Cherrington would be willing to overlook that knock of his game (since they are obviously overlooking WMB's) then I'd like to see him on a 2Y deal for no more than he just made (2.5m AAV) since a guy with an AAV that hovers around .300-215 every year can't be paid major money. |
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Post by jmei on Sept 21, 2013 23:31:59 GMT -5
Davis also has pretty serious splits-- a solid .296/.354/.428 versus lefties but a terrible .256/.297/.354 versus righties. If heavily platooned, he'd make a very good backup outfielder, especially for a team relatively light on speed (assuming Ellsbury is gone). He's coming off a good year, though, so I don't think you're going to get him too cheap. A Gomes-esque deal sounds about right.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 22, 2013 2:14:39 GMT -5
Davis also has pretty serious splits-- a solid .296/.354/.428 versus lefties but a terrible .256/.297/.354 versus righties. If heavily platooned, he'd make a very good backup outfielder, especially for a team relatively light on speed (assuming Ellsbury is gone). He's coming off a good year, though, so I don't think you're going to get him too cheap. A Gomes-esque deal sounds about right. I really get what you are saying there JMEI, it makes sense that some team would be willing to spend upwards of 2/8-10m for what Davis brings to the field. Don't think Boston is one of those teams however. Oakland now? Yep.. They replaced him earlier with a much improved version of the same thing in Crisp 3 years back and could bring in Davis now to improve upon Young, who is being massively overpaid and a FA. Oakland has multiple players exactly like Davis. He'd fit right in and be insurance as well if Reddick never regains his 2012 form. |
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Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2013 10:35:58 GMT -5
@scottlauber John Farrell is "optimistic" that Jacoby Ellsbury will play Wednesday in Colorado #RedSox
@scottlauber Pain tolerance is major issue with Ellsbury. If he can manage pain in foot, #RedSox believe he'll be able to play
Sounds like it is what it was before they sat him down. He did fairly well for those 8 days until the swelling got to be too much. If he can get his timing back I think he should be fine. 4 days off to end the season to rest then a 2 days on 1 day off schedule for the 1st round - plenty of time for ice and rest.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 22, 2013 12:41:58 GMT -5
I think its fine if they don't get the #1 seed I'm just hoping they don't slip to #3 and potentially don't have home field in either of the first two rounds. Losing 3 of our last 4 is tough but at least we wouldn't have to play Tampa in that first round.
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Post by rangoon82 on Sept 22, 2013 12:51:19 GMT -5
Sox 1.5 games up on Oakland coming into today for best record in the AL. Oakland is on the road vs. the Angels then Seattle to finish the season.
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Post by rangoon82 on Sept 22, 2013 13:10:46 GMT -5
JBJ!! Huge 3 run knock
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 22, 2013 13:10:46 GMT -5
Really happy to see Jackie Bradley JR get the homer there after some of the criticism he has received. He has been very good the last few days.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 22, 2013 13:25:33 GMT -5
Don't think it was so much criticism as a little bit of impatience. Baseball doesn't work that way. Lots of streaks, week to week, month to month... even season to season. Lots of variability in performance. I think it takes a different mindset to play the game successfully. Billy Beane would probably tell you that from his own experience in the minors (see Moneyball as a reference). The best players let their performance from atbat to atbat and game to game just roll off their backs. If we give Bradley time, I think he'll be the player he's shown himself to be in the minors.
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Post by orcoaster on Sept 22, 2013 13:25:56 GMT -5
Nice stroke JBJ! Stick that in your binder, Boras.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 22, 2013 13:32:57 GMT -5
I know it is unconventional but I would put Davis in Billy Hamilton mode, rather than as a conventional 5th OF. Use him mainly as a late inning pinch runner, and defensive replacement after he pinch runs. I know it sounds crazy but that is his main value. He has over 44 SB in 345 AB. With a very high steal percentage. He is a much better SB guy than we have with our PT stealer now, who is very hesitant to run it seems even though his percentage is high. When everyone knows you are going, you need that top guy like Davis in order for it to work.
If you think about it, using a guy mainly in that mode might give him potenatially 100 steal opportunities a year. We could insert him into the game even in the 4th inning if it is a tight game. He probably gets more steal opportunities in that mode than he would in a normal 5th OF mode.
I agree on the hacking ergo the preferred mode for him is as a designated base stealer extraordinaire. If Billy Hamilton can get 10 steals in 8 AB in that mode, what could a full season result in? I do recognize that Hamilton had 4 steals in one start, which did skew his results but he did essentially play a key role in 3 Cincinnati wins win his speed alone. In that last week, Billy Hamilton has potentially created a new model for scoring runs.
He should be available for Gomes type money and he would help us generate more wins. He's a breakthrough player potentially. A game changer if used the right way. Especially for a team in "Maury Wills" mode like Seattle or the Padres. A team which wants to maximize low scoring game wins but I'd use him in Boston also. We have the money to buy a 5th OF for $5 mil a year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 22, 2013 13:33:28 GMT -5
I think its fine if they don't get the #1 seed I'm just hoping they don't slip to #3 and potentially don't have home field in either of the first two rounds. Losing 3 of our last 4 is tough but at least we wouldn't have to play Tampa in that first round. I'm so not worried about homefield/seeding. I think the most important thing is to give rest to the guys who need it and have the team as healthy as possible going into october, and just let the chips fall where they may as far as the final standings go. Avoiding the coin flip game is all that really matters and that's done. |
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 22, 2013 13:33:45 GMT -5
Nice stroke JBJ! Stick that in your binder, Boras. I'm sure he will. Bradley is a Boras client, too. |
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 22, 2013 13:45:43 GMT -5
Guys, I'm really convinced that the Sox will be a much better team the next couple seasons with Bogaerts at third and Drew at short rather than keeping Middlebrooks. I don't want Middlebrooks at first either - I don't think he'll ever be anything more than a .240/.290/.450 hitter. Sure, he could easily pop 25 homers and rack up 75-80 RBI from the bottom half of the lineup, but his complete lack of a plan or discipline at the plate will never allow him to be more than a powerful and streaky hitter. I mean, I really have more confidence in just about every other person on the team, save for Ross, to get a hit than him when they come up. If a pitcher studies Middlebrooks well, they should be able to get him out nearly every time.
It's too bad, because I really want the guy to do well. But, whenever he has one of his hot few days (which can be monstrously productive), it renews peoples confidence in him for several weeks, only to see him come crashing back down.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 22, 2013 14:05:03 GMT -5
Guys, I'm really convinced that the Sox will be a much better team the next couple seasons with Bogaerts at third and Drew at short rather than keeping Middlebrooks. I don't want Middlebrooks at first either - I don't think he'll ever be anything more than a .240/.290/.450 hitter. Sure, he could easily pop 25 homers and rack up 75-80 RBI from the bottom half of the lineup, but his complete lack of a plan or discipline at the plate will never allow him to be more than a powerful and streaky hitter. I mean, I really have more confidence in just about every other person on the team, save for Ross, to get a hit than him when they come up. If a pitcher studies Middlebrooks well, they should be able to get him out nearly every time. It's too bad, because I really want the guy to do well. But, whenever he has one of his hot few days (which can be monstrously productive), it renews peoples confidence in him for several weeks, only to see him come crashing back down. Drew is a free agent and a Boras client. Middlebrooks can be a bridge to Cecchini. Bogaerts is a SS, not a 3rd Baseman. |
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 22, 2013 14:13:48 GMT -5
Guys, I'm really convinced that the Sox will be a much better team the next couple seasons with Bogaerts at third and Drew at short rather than keeping Middlebrooks. I don't want Middlebrooks at first either - I don't think he'll ever be anything more than a .240/.290/.450 hitter. Sure, he could easily pop 25 homers and rack up 75-80 RBI from the bottom half of the lineup, but his complete lack of a plan or discipline at the plate will never allow him to be more than a powerful and streaky hitter. I mean, I really have more confidence in just about every other person on the team, save for Ross, to get a hit than him when they come up. If a pitcher studies Middlebrooks well, they should be able to get him out nearly every time. It's too bad, because I really want the guy to do well. But, whenever he has one of his hot few days (which can be monstrously productive), it renews peoples confidence in him for several weeks, only to see him come crashing back down. Drew is a free agent and a Boras client. Middlebrooks can be a bridge to Cecchini. Bogaerts is a SS, not a 3rd Baseman. So? 1) Offer QO, attempt to sign him to a 2-year deal with a bit of annual overpay 2) Because a likely-to-be solid prospect will be ready in a couple seasons, we should fill the position in the meantime with a below average player? 3) Middlebrooks also was an SS. So was Michael Morse. XB will be an average-ish SS at best. He could be an above average 3B. I'm not saying there aren't good arguments for retaining WMB and penciling him in at third next year, but those "points" of yours seem kind of weak for shooting down what I think gives us the best 2014 and (and maybe) 2015 team. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 22, 2013 14:21:32 GMT -5
Drew is a free agent and a Boras client. Middlebrooks can be a bridge to Cecchini. Bogaerts is a SS, not a 3rd Baseman. So? 1) Offer QO, attempt to sign him to a 2-year deal with a bit of annual overpay 2) Because a likely-to-be solid prospect will be ready in a couple seasons, we should fill the position in the meantime with a below average player? 3) Middlebrooks also was an SS. So was Michael Morse. XB will be an average-ish SS at best. He could be an above average 3B. I'm not saying there aren't good arguments for retaining WMB and penciling him in at third next year, but those "points" of yours seem kind of weak for shooting down what I think gives us the best 2014 and (and maybe) 2015 team. We have other needs and its pretty unlikely Drew signs a 1 or 2 year deal. He also cannot hit lefties. Middlebrooks is also a solid defender and still improving his game. Bogaerts provides the most value at SS and we don't have unlimited amounts of money to throw at guys like the Dodgers or MFYs do. We still have other needs at 1B, Catcher, OF, Bullpen etc. |
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Post by jmei on Sept 22, 2013 14:42:48 GMT -5
I know it is unconventional but I would put Davis in Billy Hamilton mode, rather than as a conventional 5th OF. Use him mainly as a late inning pinch runner, and defensive replacement after he pinch runs. I know it sounds crazy but that is his main value. He has over 44 SB in 345 AB. With a very high steal percentage. He is a much better SB guy than we have with our PT stealer now, who is very hesitant to run it seems even though his percentage is high. When everyone knows you are going, you need that top guy like Davis in order for it to work. If you think about it, using a guy mainly in that mode might give him potenatially 100 steal opportunities a year. We could insert him into the game even in the 4th inning if it is a tight game. He probably gets more steal opportunities in that mode than he would in a normal 5th OF mode. I agree on the hacking ergo the preferred mode for him is as a designated base stealer extraordinaire. If Billy Hamilton can get 10 steals in 8 AB in that mode, what could a full season result in? I do recognize that Hamilton had 4 steals in one start, which did skew his results but he did essentially play a key role in 3 Cincinnati wins win his speed alone. In that last week, Billy Hamilton has potentially created a new model for scoring runs. Um, Rajai Davis is no Billy Hamilton, and it's not close. Hamilton might be one of the five fastest baserunners of all time, while Davis is just a speedy outfielder (and one entering his 30s to boot). I think Davis is a useful reserve outfielder, but he's not fast enough (or good enough with the bat) to be a designated base stealer, at least outside of September expanded rosters. It's an interesting idea, but there's a reason Hamilton's role this year is unique-- because Hamilton is a unique player. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 22, 2013 16:46:01 GMT -5
Twins are just rolling over and waiting to the season to end. Boston is going to need to go 3-2 it looks like to solidify the best record with Oakland and next detroit wiping out the near dead twinkies. 1st Detroit got to take BP vs the Chisox, now the Twins. No wonder that team piled up 90W's being able to play those 2 teams around 36 times during the season.
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