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Post by James Dunne on Sept 24, 2013 10:17:10 GMT -5
In the last five years, exactly one of the ten teams who had the best record in their league has gone to the World Series.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2013 10:40:22 GMT -5
In the last five years, exactly ten of the ten teams who had the best record in their league has gone on to higher revenues.
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Post by jmei on Sept 24, 2013 11:08:54 GMT -5
In the last five years, exactly ten of the ten teams who had the best record in their league has gone on to higher revenues. Larry, is that you?
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 24, 2013 12:45:09 GMT -5
Guys, I'm really convinced that the Sox will be a much better team the next couple seasons with Bogaerts at third and Drew at short rather than keeping Middlebrooks. I don't want Middlebrooks at first either - I don't think he'll ever be anything more than a .240/.290/.450 hitter. Sure, he could easily pop 25 homers and rack up 75-80 RBI from the bottom half of the lineup, but his complete lack of a plan or discipline at the plate will never allow him to be more than a powerful and streaky hitter. I mean, I really have more confidence in just about every other person on the team, save for Ross, to get a hit than him when they come up. If a pitcher studies Middlebrooks well, they should be able to get him out nearly every time. It's too bad, because I really want the guy to do well. But, whenever he has one of his hot few days (which can be monstrously productive), it renews peoples confidence in him for several weeks, only to see him come crashing back down. Middlebrooks hit .368 / .434 / .621 in his first 26 games back from Pawtucket, with 20 K and 8 UBB in 97 PA. The walk rate (.082) is above the median of .081 for qualifying MLB hitters--and that ranking includes IBB. I think that maintaining an above-average walk rate for nearly a month is kind of a remarkable feat for someone who has the abilities in bold above. Subsequently, WMB has hit .114 / .139 / .114 in 36 PA over 9 starts, and the one BB was an IBB. Taken together, he's .295 / .356 / .475 since his return, which is pretty damn good. Whether he's better than that, or worse, will depend on his ultimate ratio of hot to cold streaks, about which this sample can only tell us so much. But Manny used to have funks like this of 12 to 18 games. In fact, you can find a ton of 35 game stretches like this in Manny's game logs, ones that would be really hard to distinguish from this one if you didn't look at the SO's. The joker in that deck, of course, is that the hot stretches for Manny would last a lot longer than 26 games. I not only want the guy to do well, I want hm to be accurately perceived by fans. But whenever he has one of his inevitable one-to-two-week funks, it seems to wipe out the memory of all the good he's done, irrationally destroying people's long-term confidence in him. It goes both ways, Eric. His inevitable funks are complemented by inevitable hot streaks. He does certain things well, like driving the ball with impressive power to all fields when he's getting fastballs in the zone. But he's very far from embodying the qualities of more complete hitters, Manny being an extreme example. All players are prone to being hot and cold, but how hot and how cold? It's WAY too early to look at Middlebrooks' overall line since being recalled from his Pawtucket stint, and surmising that he's truly improved as an MLB hitter. Looking at the last 30 days alone he's at .239/.272/.386/.658, with a 3/24 UBB/K. Really, his numbers are being propped up by a ridiculously hot 11 game streak when he first was recalled (8/10 to 8/21: .441/.535/.706/1.241, with a 5/7 UBB/K), and then a 5 game surge when we demolished the Tigers in that final game and then dismantled the Yankees (9/4 to 9/8: .500/.542/.1091/1.633 with a 2/3 UBB/K). I don't like to pick and choose arbitrary end points to make points about players, but since you're saying I'm irrationally losing confidence in him based on some short-term funks, I really think it's notable that there's 20 games of extreme cold against those 16 games of scorching hot. Those cold streaks, since I mentioned the hot ones, are: (8/23 to 9/3: .193/.219/.191/.412 with a 1/10 UBB/K) and (9/10 to 9/22: .114/.139/.114/.253 with a 0/11 UBB/K). Now, no matter what, we're dealing with a tiny sample and it's tough to draw conclusions either way. I think Will is a smart guy and knows what facets of his game he needed to improve on when he was demoted. He's consciously been trying to have a better plan at the plate, but a lot of the times, it seems like it's coming from mental pressing rather than new found discipline. This is purely observational, but I've seen him taking pitches at a higher rate, both outside the strike zone and many inside that he could be hammering. I think that as soon as he begins to get into a funk, he presses harder and harder until he catches fire again. FWIW, he hit .264/.314/.447/.760 with a 12/35 UBB/K on his 39 game PawSox stint. I think, and this is only me guessing, but guessing with some decent certainty, that that line is the best case scenario for him as a MLB hitter (with a deflated UBB/K line and OBP, when adjusting for him not being a middle of the order power threat in a minor league lineup). From a pure performance standpoint, Eric, how do you think the Sox would be next year with Drew and Bogaerts on the left side compared to Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? I, by the way, want the best for Will as much as anyone. But at the same time, we're talking about an average defender who needs to hit to be worth keeping in the lineup on an everyday basis. You see reasons to be optimistic with him overcoming his biggest flaw (plate discipline), where as I see reasons to be doubtful that he'll truly make lasting improvements. I want to be wrong and it's too early for either of us to draw conclusions. That being said, I don't see the guy ever being a consistent 2-win per season player, and he may struggle to even get close.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2013 22:18:54 GMT -5
Matt
I know that you are asking eric for his opinion but I'm curious about why you would pigeon hole Middlebrooks when he has a grand total of 1 years worth of major league games, and just over 500 upper level minor league AB's. There certainly isn't enough UZR data to draw any meaningful defensive statistical analysis.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 24, 2013 22:36:34 GMT -5
Matt I know that you are asking eric for his opinion but I'm curious about why you would pigeon hole Middlebrooks when he has a grand total of 1 years worth of major league games, and just over 500 upper level minor league AB's. There certainly isn't enough UZR data to draw any meaningful defensive statistical analysis. As I mentioned, the jury is still out as to what he can be in the majors. My main concern with him hinges on something that has been an issue with his player make up for his entire career, not just hinging on streakiness in the majors (although I think the issue contributes substantially to such streakiness), and the majors have exposed it big time. As for the defense, I just said I think he's average-ish. He can make some nice plays, and has decent but unspectacular range. The arm is good. UZR (which I usually wait for an even larger sample than most before drawing concrete conclusions) and DRS (which I actually like more than UZR) really don't like him this year, but that's not why I said he's average. I think he'll ultimately be a -5 to +5 type defender by both metrics (just a guess based on the feel I have for his defense), so I'm not knocking him at all for his glove work - just noting that it's not an asset to his game that significantly excuses poor offensive production.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2013 23:28:51 GMT -5
OK, fair enough, as a point of reference I have him as a slightly above average defender because of his ability to make strong throws on the move and that he always seems to take the proper angle to his left. My bad, I thought you wrote below average defender.
I view Will as being a small town boy that's going to need to get used to the headlights. I'm guessing here that in the batters box, he has trouble overcoming the noise of wanting to make a good impression. I found it interesting that he seemed to calm down quite a bit during his Pawtucket stay and I think his comfort level with DiSarsina had a lot to do with that. (they've known each other since his high school). If you look at old vids vs new vids, he's no longer all figgity in the batters box. I look for the psychological issues to disappear with time but, I'm an optimist, the strength of the power tool would make me want to give him a long leash but hold it tightly.
ADD: I don't ever see him as being an OBP guy no matter what level of pitch recognition he obtains. Long swings and high OBP rarely meet. On the other hand there's still something to be said for the three run HR. His RP will be just fine (LOL, showing my age relative to Bill James, believe it or not, when I moved to the Philippines I e-bay auctioned the complete set of Baseball Abstracts including the first edition).
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