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9-20-9/22 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 22, 2013 17:06:38 GMT -5
Good point John. I think it could be kinda good to play a good team like the Orioles at the end with our top of the line starters going, and gear up for the post season though.
With Detroit's loss and our win today, it looks like we'll get the 2 seed at worst. Which would be fine by me.
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Post by hammerhead on Sept 23, 2013 7:37:40 GMT -5
Can someone make a post-season roster construction thread for discussion of who is on the 25??? for some reason I am having trouble creating a thread and I'm surprised we don't have one already. The most interesting decisions will be Bogaerts vs. Macdonald , JBJ or Berry if Victorino and Ellsbury are still dinged up and Lavarnway if the sox want to carry 3 catchers. That doesn't even get into the pitching side of things where Thornton may have pitched himself off.
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Post by hammerhead on Sept 23, 2013 7:50:57 GMT -5
This Rajai Davis stuff is really lame. There is absolutely no-chance the guy is signing anywhere to be a 5th outfielder. No matter what you guys think of him, he thinks he's a starter and there's plenty of teams out there who probably agree and will pay him to be a fulltime starter. Stolen bases are not a significant enough benefit to waste a roster spot on alone.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 23, 2013 9:00:03 GMT -5
Can someone make a post-season roster construction thread for discussion of who is on the 25??? for some reason I am having trouble creating a thread and I'm surprised we don't have one already. The most interesting decisions will be Bogaerts vs. Macdonald , JBJ or Berry if Victorino and Ellsbury are still dinged up and Lavarnway if the sox want to carry 3 catchers. That doesn't even get into the pitching side of things where Thornton may have pitched himself off. There's a thread on the pitching. Look here. forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1265/playoff-rotation-bullpen Not really worth a thread on position players. It's pretty obvious if Ellsbury is healthy that your bench is; Gomes, Carp, Ross and Xander. Do you carry a pinch-runner, Inf or bat is the only question. Not really thread worthy.
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Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2013 9:03:08 GMT -5
Can someone make a post-season roster construction thread for discussion of who is on the 25??? for some reason I am having trouble creating a thread and I'm surprised we don't have one already. The most interesting decisions will be Bogaerts vs. Macdonald , JBJ or Berry if Victorino and Ellsbury are still dinged up and Lavarnway if the sox want to carry 3 catchers. That doesn't even get into the pitching side of things where Thornton may have pitched himself off. There's already a thread for the pitchers, and I really don't think the position player side is difficult at all-- assuming Victorino and Ellsbury are healthy (and there's little reason to think that they won't be), it will be the following fourteen players: Saltalamacchia Ross Napoli Carp Pedroia Drew Bogaerts Middlebrooks Nava Gomes Ellsbury Victorino Berry Ortiz MacDonald has literally played once in a non-blowout situation, and it was to give Pedroia a day off after they clinched the division. Lavarnway hasn't gotten much playing time of late either, and Saltalamacchia is a good enough hitter that three catchers are unnecessary. Berry has solidified his role as the designated pinch-runner, which the Red Sox front office value enough to have carried more often than not in recent years (Joey Gathright in 2009, Alejandro Machado in 2005, Dave Roberts in 2004, Adrian Brown in 2003). There is a small chance Bradley makes the roster over Berry if Ellsbury/Victorino have injury relapses, but as I mentioned above, that's pretty unlikely.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 23, 2013 9:29:34 GMT -5
Can someone make a post-season roster construction thread for discussion of who is on the 25??? for some reason I am having trouble creating a thread and I'm surprised we don't have one already. The most interesting decisions will be Bogaerts vs. Macdonald , JBJ or Berry if Victorino and Ellsbury are still dinged up and Lavarnway if the sox want to carry 3 catchers. That doesn't even get into the pitching side of things where Thornton may have pitched himself off. There's already a thread for the pitchers, and I really don't think the position player side is difficult at all-- assuming Victorino and Ellsbury are healthy (and there's little reason to think that they won't be), it will be the following fourteen players: Saltalamacchia Ross Napoli Carp Pedroia Drew Bogaerts Middlebrooks Nava Gomes Ellsbury Victorino Berry Ortiz MacDonald has literally played once in a non-blowout situation, and it was to give Pedroia a day off after they clinched the division. Lavarnway hasn't gotten much playing time of late either, and Saltalamacchia is a good enough hitter that three catchers are unnecessary. Berry has solidified his role as the designated pinch-runner, which the Red Sox front office value enough to have carried more often than not in recent years (Joey Gathright in 2009, Alejandro Machado in 2005, Dave Roberts in 2004, Adrian Brown in 2003). There is a small chance Bradley makes the roster over Berry if Ellsbury/Victorino have injury relapses, but as I mentioned above, that's pretty unlikely. This pretty much nails it. I can see an argument for Jackie but I think Berry will get it for the reasons he mentioned. I don't see a need for McDonald when Drew and Pedroia already provide good defense. Xander gives us a good bat off the bench which McDonald obviously doesn't.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 23, 2013 9:47:59 GMT -5
Davis has 45 successful steals with only 6 CS this year, as I said in only 345 AB. That is near league leading performance from a guy who wasn't getting a lot of steal opportunities and essentially makes him one of the top base stealers in baseball in my book. Those are real decent numbers and the other day he took off twice on the first pitch. When the game is on the line, and everyone knows you are going to run, it is a lot harder to steal a base. Some guys are near worthless in that situation. They only run when the pitcher is slow to the plate, the catcher is bad ...etc. Davis appears to be capable of stealing even off stronger pitchers and against stronger catchers. And earlier in the count when it gives the team the most benefit potentially.
22 steals against 0 CS is impressive but it does little good in a game changing situation late in the game if that player only gets those numbers from easy opportunities. If that player is so careful that he doesn't even attempt the steal when the steal is needed. The numbers Davis is putting up this year indicate he could be potentially a Billy Hamilton type threat. I'm not saying he's Billy Hamilton in ability but he appears to be one of the closest to him plus he is also a useful 5th OF as well. Hamilton may never be able to hit and never be very useful beyond base stealing. Davis is a decent reserve Of while also potentially being a major late inning threat on the base paths.
People can call it lame but the bottom line is "what generates more wins". Some real analysis should be given to this scenario. I think there may be more value there than some of us realize.
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Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2013 10:42:06 GMT -5
Davis appears to be capable of stealing even off stronger pitchers and against stronger catchers. And earlier in the count when it gives the team the most benefit potentially. It's pretty bold to make this claim based only on SB/CS numbers and the fact that he stole two bases off of Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the first pitch.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 23, 2013 11:09:58 GMT -5
Davis appears to be capable of stealing even off stronger pitchers and against stronger catchers. And earlier in the count when it gives the team the most benefit potentially. It's pretty bold to make this claim based only on SB/CS numbers and the fact that he stole two bases off of Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the first pitch. Not exactly taking up for signing Davis, cause am not a fan of giving him more than he made last year as a FA and he's a career hacker as mentioned in posts above.. But should be mentioned that those 2 1st pitch SB's you mentioned JMEI were in game 1, vs Jon Lester that who might be a lefty, but has one of the most pathetic moves to 1b, doesn't attempt to hold runners on 1b and is slow to the plate. Then couple that with Salty, who can hardly make a good throw to any bag and it means any team can run at will generally.
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Post by hammerhead on Sept 23, 2013 11:58:36 GMT -5
None of this takes into account the fact that the guy is not signing to be your "designated base-stealer /5th outfielder" ... He will sign somewhere to be a starter. No matter how well he'd fit in that role it's moot because he's not signing on for it.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 23, 2013 11:59:03 GMT -5
How hard would you guys push the last 5 games to make sure you get the top seed in the AL? Our magic number is 5
Turns out that the Colorado games don't mean quite as much, but the Baltimore games mean a lot (ie. 0-2 vs CO and 3-0 vs Bal is way better than 2-0/1-2) because of how deep in the tie-breakers we go with Oakland. Of course, if we win out, we're good, or we can afford to lose one per game Oakland loses. If we lose one more than them then we better hope it's against the Rockies and not the division rival O's, that would likely be the only way we still hold the tie-breaker.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 23, 2013 12:07:47 GMT -5
How hard would you guys push the last 5 games to make sure you get the top seed in the AL? Our magic number is 5 Turns out that the Colorado games don't mean quite as much, but the Baltimore games mean a lot (ie. 0-2 vs CO and 3-0 vs Bal is way better than 2-0/1-2) because of how deep in the tie-breakers we go with Oakland. Of course, if we win out, we're good, or we can afford to lose one per game Oakland loses. If we lose one more than them then we better hope it's against the Rockies and not the division rival O's, that would likely be the only way we still hold the tie-breaker. I know for tie-breaking purposes the Colorado games don't mean as much. But, you're putting the carriage before the horse. Win the Colorado games and you may not have to worry about tie-breakers. The Angels(21-8 with 2/3 in Oakland) are playing very well now. Actually, better than Baltimore(11-15 last 26). I'd be surprised if they don't win at least 1. Maybe, 2 against the A's. I'd try to win these games in Colorado like any other game. Might head into the weekend with a 2 or maybe 3 game lead if we win both. If we're 3 up headed to Baltimore. Oakland travels to Seattle for three. In short, try like hell to beat Colorado so the weekend may not matter.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Sept 23, 2013 14:03:17 GMT -5
I apologize if this is a stupid question, but . . . rule # 2 for the tiebreaking rules is:
"The team with the best overall record in intradivision games."
"Intradivision" seems to me a weird concept in this context. Does it mean our record in our division vs. their record in their division? If so, what a bizarre rule.
Edit: Typo
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Post by Guidas on Sept 23, 2013 14:10:44 GMT -5
It's pretty bold to make this claim based only on SB/CS numbers and the fact that he stole two bases off of Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the first pitch. Not exactly taking up for signing Davis, cause am not a fan of giving him more than he made last year as a FA and he's a career hacker as mentioned in posts above.. But should be mentioned that those 2 1st pitch SB's you mentioned JMEI were in game 1, vs Jon Lester that who might be a lefty, but has one of the most pathetic moves to 1b, doesn't attempt to hold runners on 1b and is slow to the plate. Then couple that with Salty, who can hardly make a good throw to any bag and it means any team can run at will generally. Not a Davis fan in terms of him being a starter - I totally think he's a 4th OF and we have 2-3 of those right now avail, but he'll likely get a decent contract and a starting job somewhere based on the scarcity of CFs available in Free Agency vs. need (and on the fact that not every ballpark is a crackerbox like Great American so Choo really isn't viewed as a CF option going forward for most clubs).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 23, 2013 15:12:00 GMT -5
I apologize if this is a stupid question, but . . . rule # 2 for the tiebreaking rules is: "The team with the best overall record in intradivision games." "Intradivision" seems to me a weird concept in this context. Does it mean our record in our division vs. their record in their division? If so, what a bizarre rule. Edit: Typo Precisely, and agreed.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Sept 23, 2013 15:21:53 GMT -5
Thanks, Chris.
I don't know if the NFL still does it this way but in the past one of their tiebreakers has been the record with common opponents. Much much smarter and fairer IMO.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 23, 2013 15:42:11 GMT -5
Davis has stolen 45 bases out of 51 attempts this year so to me the whole..."but it was against Lester and Salty" doesn't cut it especially since he basically was a 1/2 time player. Extend his numbers over 700 AB and he would have stolen 90 bases in 101 attempts. What does this guy have to do to impress you guys with his SB ability? Again, he stole 2 bases the other day against us on the first pitch. The guy is clearly a top 5 base stealer in mlb.
The only question is whether the Billy Hamilton approach is worth it from a 5th OF. If we have a major injury we can still call up an OF from AAA ball, be it Hassan or someone else. The question is whether a 5th OF of his mix of talent is a better solution for this team than what we might have next year in the OF.
Conceivably we may not have Napoli next year and Carp / Nava may be covering 1st and also back us up in the OF. If Ellsbury is also gone I think Davis would be a good fit. He may well get a starting gig somewhere but will it be for more money than he could get from the Sox?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 23, 2013 15:50:55 GMT -5
Davis has stolen 45 bases out of 51 attempts this year so to me the whole..."but it was against Lester and Salty" doesn't cut it especially since he basically was a 1/2 time player. Extend his numbers over 700 AB and he would have stolen 90 bases in 101 attempts. What does this guy have to do to impress you guys with his SB ability? Again, he stole 2 bases the other day against us on the first pitch. The guy is clearly a top 5 base stealer in mlb. The only question is whether the Billy Hamilton approach is worth it from a 5th OF. If we have a major injury we can still call up an OF from AAA ball, be it Hassan or someone else. The question is whether a 5th OF of his mix of talent is a better solution for this team than what we might have next year in the OF. Conceivably we may not have Napoli next year and Carp / Nava may be covering 1st and also back us up in the OF. If Ellsbury is also gone I think Davis would be a good fit. He may well get a starting gig somewhere but will it be for more money than he could get from the Sox? Yes.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 23, 2013 16:09:15 GMT -5
His approach at the plate runs against the grain of what the Sox are preaching is my issue. I can't justify paying anyone 5m (not knocking you here) that you were guesstimating his AAV could hit over 2y for just speed and the ability to play 3OF positions.
I like the addition of speed as much as anyone and liked having Ciriaco around for just that 1 reason, but he was making less than 1m. Giving a career .310 OBP guy 5m with little power that much would run contrary to anything Epstein ever did as well as what Cherrington appears do be doing as well in building players who have patience.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 23, 2013 21:36:21 GMT -5
I very much dislike Rajai Davis as a player and I wish you stop trying to talk about him as someone the Red So FO would want because that just makes me sad.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 24, 2013 0:58:03 GMT -5
Assuming Bradley replaces Ellsbury on the roster, and they either re-sign Napoli or get another 1B, there's no room on the roster for another OF, Davis or anyone else. That spot only opens if if Carp is the regular 1B next year.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 24, 2013 1:24:30 GMT -5
Guys, I'm really convinced that the Sox will be a much better team the next couple seasons with Bogaerts at third and Drew at short rather than keeping Middlebrooks. I don't want Middlebrooks at first either - I don't think he'll ever be anything more than a .240/.290/.450 hitter. Sure, he could easily pop 25 homers and rack up 75-80 RBI from the bottom half of the lineup, but his complete lack of a plan or discipline at the plate will never allow him to be more than a powerful and streaky hitter. I mean, I really have more confidence in just about every other person on the team, save for Ross, to get a hit than him when they come up. If a pitcher studies Middlebrooks well, they should be able to get him out nearly every time. It's too bad, because I really want the guy to do well. But, whenever he has one of his hot few days (which can be monstrously productive), it renews peoples confidence in him for several weeks, only to see him come crashing back down. Middlebrooks hit .368 / .434 / .621 in his first 26 games back from Pawtucket, with 20 K and 8 UBB in 97 PA. The walk rate (.082) is above the median of .081 for qualifying MLB hitters--and that ranking includes IBB. I think that maintaining an above-average walk rate for nearly a month is kind of a remarkable feat for someone who has the abilities in bold above. Subsequently, WMB has hit .114 / .139 / .114 in 36 PA over 9 starts, and the one BB was an IBB. Taken together, he's .295 / .356 / .475 since his return, which is pretty damn good. Whether he's better than that, or worse, will depend on his ultimate ratio of hot to cold streaks, about which this sample can only tell us so much. But Manny used to have funks like this of 12 to 18 games. In fact, you can find a ton of 35 game stretches like this in Manny's game logs, ones that would be really hard to distinguish from this one if you didn't look at the SO's. The joker in that deck, of course, is that the hot stretches for Manny would last a lot longer than 26 games. I not only want the guy to do well, I want hm to be accurately perceived by fans. But whenever he has one of his inevitable one-to-two-week funks, it seems to wipe out the memory of all the good he's done, irrationally destroying people's long-term confidence in him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2013 3:56:03 GMT -5
what eric said....
and my 2 cents
Just my opinion but there are 2 significant differences in WMB's approach pre and post demotion. First, he's a lot quieter in the batters box, same swing mechanics, less noise. Second, he's not chasing anywhere near as many bad pitches as he used to. He can still look bad and still chase but,a telling stat is that prior to his demotion, 25 of the 60 swinging strike outs came on pitches out of the strike zone.
Looking forward, we're likely to see a streaky third baseman with above average defense, low IsoD, high IsoP which should put him in the top 5 to 8ish third basemen in baseball when the counting is done.
If you look at position by position stats and compare to baseball as a whole in those positions, the two weakest positions this year are third base and right field. I think we've solved third base.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 24, 2013 9:27:08 GMT -5
Twins are just rolling over and waiting to the season to end. Boston is going to need to go 3-2 it looks like to solidify the best record with Oakland and next detroit wiping out the near dead twinkies. 1st Detroit got to take BP vs the Chisox, now the Twins. No wonder that team piled up 90W's being able to play those 2 teams around 36 times during the season. Sox may well have to go 5-0 to secure that record. We can only afford to lose games if TB loses the same number. Maybe one additional, if it's against CO.
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dd
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Post by dd on Sept 24, 2013 10:02:50 GMT -5
Twins are just rolling over and waiting to the season to end. Boston is going to need to go 3-2 it looks like to solidify the best record with Oakland and next detroit wiping out the near dead twinkies. 1st Detroit got to take BP vs the Chisox, now the Twins. No wonder that team piled up 90W's being able to play those 2 teams around 36 times during the season. Sox may well have to go 5-0 to secure that record. We can only afford to lose games if TB loses the same number. Maybe one additional, if it's against CO. Yes. The A's are hot. Right now I wouldn't bet on the Sox to get best record. Sigh. (That's probably partly my Red Sox fan mentality showing through from days of yore.)
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