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2013 Rule 5 Draft (Part 2)
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 10, 2013 7:23:22 GMT -5
I know this is very far in advance, but the sox will have a lot of quality players rule-5 eligible after this year, so i wouldn't be a bad idea to start thinking about it. the following players are rule 5 eligible after this year:
Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Luis Bastardo, Ricardo Betancourt, Carson Blair, Xander Bogaerts, Bryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Jose Garcia, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Charlie Haeger, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Drew Hedman, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron Kurcz, Lucas LeBlanc, Juan Carlos Linares, Tyler Lockwood, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Roberto Reyes, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Scott Swinson, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Shannon Wilkerson, Tyler Wilson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer100% locks:Xander Bogaerts Bryce Brentz Brandon Workman Very Likely:Garin Cecchini Keury De La Cruz Brandon Jacobs
Other possibilities, depends on performance this year:Jose Vinicio Mike Almanzar Chris Balcom-Miller Anthony Ranaudo William Cuevas Keith Couch Jeremy Hazelbaker Chris Hernandez Jeremy Kehrt JC Linares Boss Moanora (Not really, he just has a great name) Reply for your thoughts. There are some intriguing players on the last list, so this will be a tough year to determine who will make the 40-man and who won't. Wanted to revive this post from earlier in the year. Now that we've finished the minor league season, I think we can say: 100% locks:Xander Bogaerts (already there) Brandon Workman (already there) Garin Cecchini Anthony Ranaudo Very Likely:Bryce Brentz (if not traded)
Other possibilities:Jose Vinicio Mike Almanzar Chris Balcom-Miller William Cuevas Keith Couch Keury De La Cruz Jeremy Hazelbaker Chris Hernandez Jeremy Kehrt JC Linares |
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 10, 2013 7:29:13 GMT -5
I had a couple prospects I'd like to hear opinions on though. Is there anything Ruiz and Couch do during the AFL that get them to the 40-man? I don't really see Ruiz getting taken in the draft, but Couch is your perfect rubber arm for the last spot in a bullpen. Can spot start, or pitch a few innings, doesn't overpower, but just gets outs.
And with Hazelbaker and Wilkerson, what are the odds that guys with solid speeed (plus some power in Hazelbaker's case), and the ability to play 2-3 spots in the OF are taken to be the 5th OF/pinch runner on an NL team?
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 10, 2013 8:13:41 GMT -5
Ortiz
Lester
Pedroia
Buchholz
Doubront
Tazawa
Lackey
Morales
Miller
Lavarnway*
Middlerooks
Britton
Bailey*
Nava
Breslow
Ross
Webster
De La Rosa
A Wilson
Wright
Butler*
Vazquez
Hassan*
Gomes
Victorino
Uehara
Dempster
Holt
Carp
Bradley
Beato*
Workman
Villareal*
Peavy
Bogaerts
Catcher (Salty?)
1B (Napoli)
Cecchini
Ranaudo
Brentz
Unless there is a trade, or we use an internal option for C/1B which is unlikely, that gets you to 40 right there.
So the question is do any of the players you mention have more value than someone on this list?
I starred the ones who I think may be at risk, but for Ruiz/Couch they'd really have to perform well to break through. Same for Haze/Wilkerson as Hassan has done nothing to not justify his addition to the 40 man when he came back from injury. Basically my point is that the 40 man is already tight, and it is a tough year for these guys to sneak on as a last guy.
And of course as the off-season unfolds trades/signings can change everything, but this is what they'd have to break through right now.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 10, 2013 8:47:55 GMT -5
Huntzinger is another option to protect, after striking out a batter per inning at Pawtucket. But it seems the Sox prefer to roll the dice on letting relievers get claimed.
I think there are too many catchers (including Salty), starting pitchers, and OF (incl Kalish, Berry, Brentz, Hassan) on the 40-man and it makes sense to adjust at those positions - always provided the solution doesn't shed value needlessly, which should go without saying, but can't.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 10, 2013 12:32:41 GMT -5
Current 40-man (45 players): Ortiz, Lester, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz, Doubront, Tazawa, Lackey, Kalish (60-day DL), Saltalamacchia, Morales, Miller (60-day DL), Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Britton, Bailey, Nava, Breslow, Ross, Webster, De La Rosa, Wilson (60-day DL), Wright, Butler, Vazquez, Hassan, Gomes, Victorino, Uehara, Dempster, Hanrahan (60-day DL), Holt, Drew, Napoli, Carp, Bradley Jr., Beato, Snyder, Workman, Thornton, Peavy, Villarreal, Bogaerts, McDonald, Berry
Free Agents (7 players): Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia, Hanrahan, Drew, Napoli, McDonald and Thornton (assuming team doesn't pick up option)
Non-Tender Candidates (1 player): Bailey
Locks to be added (3 players): Cecchini, Ranaudo and Brentz
Likely DFA Candidates (3 players): Snyder, Beato and Berry
Question marks (2 players): Villarreal and Kalish
Possibilities to be added (3 players): Hernandez, Almanzar and Hazelbaker (note: I would not add any of them at this time)
Assuming all free agents leave, all non-tenders/likely DFAs occur and all locks occur, the 40-man roster would have three open spots and would look as follows:
Position players (18): Ortiz (DH), Carp (1B), Pedroia (2B), Bogaerts (SS), Middlebrooks (3B), Nava (LF), Bradley, Jr. (CF), Victorino (RF), Ross (C), Lavarnway (B/C), Holt (B/IF), Gomes (B/OF), Butler (AAA C), Vazquez (AAA C), Cecchini (AAA 3B), Brentz (AAA OF), Hassan (AAA OF), Kalish (AAA OF)
Starters (11): Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Dempster, Peavy, Workman (AAA), Webster (AAA), De La Rosa (AAA), Wright (AAA), Ranaudo (AAA)
Bullpen (8): Uehara, Tazawa, Morales, Miller, Breslow, Wilson, Villarreal, Britton (AAA)
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 10, 2013 14:49:35 GMT -5
So out of all the guys you think won't be added to the 40 man, anyone you think will be taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft?
I think the possible taken players are:
Almanzar, Couch, Hernandez, Hazelbaker, Wilkerson, Huntzinger, and Haeger.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2013 18:21:49 GMT -5
So out of all the guys you think won't be added to the 40 man, anyone you think will be taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft? I think the possible taken players are: Almanzar, Couch, Hernandez, Hazelbaker, Wilkerson, Huntzinger, and Haeger. Guys who are minor league free agents are not subject to the Rule 5; they can sign anywhere. That includes Huntzinger and Haeger. My own list of guys who might conceivably be taken, although all are long shots, are: Tier 1: Aaron Kurcz, Michael Almanzar, Luis Diaz, Madison Younginer, Matthew Price Tier 2: Jeremey Hazelbaker, Kyle Stroup, Keury De La Cruz, Jose Vinicio, Heiker Meneses. I wouldn't even mention these guys in an article for the average fan. I have the exact same list of 37 roster guys as amfox. They'll use the the three open spots for waiver claims on guys they later expect to DFA again ( a la Sandy Rosario and many other guys over past winters), but might get to keep if they happen to make trades that reduce the guys on the 40-man roster. The three open spots eventually allow them to sign a catcher, first baseman, and RH reliever, and assuming they trade Demspster, a better backup MI than Holt. There was a lot of useful information in the "old" thread on this topic (The 2013-2014 40-Man Roster (Post-Peavy Deal), which was last updated twelve days ago and is still on the forum page 1. Folks would not be omitting the very interesting case of Kurcz had they been reminded of it. Mods should append this thread to that one. |
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Post by kungfuizzy on Oct 12, 2013 8:27:48 GMT -5
So out of all the guys you think won't be added to the 40 man, anyone you think will be taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft? I think the possible taken players are: Almanzar, Couch, Hernandez, Hazelbaker, Wilkerson, Huntzinger, and Haeger. I think Hazelbaker and Kurcz stand the best chance of being taken in the Rule 5. If you go down the list the normal players usually taken are 4-5th outfielders and relievers. I would prefer them protecting both guys but I could see with Hassan on the 40 man why they'd not protect Hazelbaker for the 2nd straight year. Then again...if Ellsbury leaves (likely) then it's also likely that Hassan gets a crack at being the 4th outfielder for the Sox next year. The other thing in all of this is if the Sox aren't confident that Kalish will ever be healthy again maybe they DFA him and keep Hazelbaker... |
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2013 11:11:23 GMT -5
Remember that Kurcz didn't play at all in 2013 due to Tommy John surgery. He might be ready for 2014 Spring Training (there are shockingly few details about when he had surgery), but even if he is, I doubt a team would take him in Rule 5 coming off major surgery.
Diaz, Younginer, and Price are all interesting higher-upside arms that some team might grab and stick in the last spot of a bullpen, but the odds are very much against them sticking for a whole major league season.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 12, 2013 16:49:04 GMT -5
So out of all the guys you think won't be added to the 40 man, anyone you think will be taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft? I think the possible taken players are: Almanzar, Couch, Hernandez, Hazelbaker, Wilkerson, Huntzinger, and Haeger. I think Hazelbaker and Kurcz stand the best chance of being taken ... Hazelbaker is 26, hasn't cracked the .700 OPS mark in AAA, and while he can handle all OF positions he's best suited for LF. I'd be shocked if he were taken. Maybe Almanzar to see how he looks in Spring Training, though I doubt it. Maybe a reliever, again for a good ST look. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 12, 2013 16:54:52 GMT -5
Hazelbaker could be a major league player, but not for a team that's going to win more than half its games. He may get picked by a weak team, and if so good luck to him.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 12, 2013 17:28:08 GMT -5
Nice list. Price is the only one think has a chance of being drafted. Kurcz possibly before he got hurt, but is probably safe now.
None of the others are worth a spot and/or worth protecting. Almanzar, DLC. Extreme long shots. Stroup doubtful and not worth a spot anyway. Price possibly a middle reliever in a few years could help, ditto Kurcz.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2013 6:31:47 GMT -5
Then again...if Ellsbury leaves (likely) then it's also likely that Hassan gets a crack at being the 4th outfielder for the Sox next year. Umm ... Jonny Gomes? Where is he in that scenario? Hassan will be at Pawtucket, trying to demonstrate that his great 2013 wasn't a fluke, to put himself in line for Gomes' job in 2015. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 14, 2013 9:44:49 GMT -5
Then again...if Ellsbury leaves (likely) then it's also likely that Hassan gets a crack at being the 4th outfielder for the Sox next year. Umm ... Jonny Gomes? Where is he in that scenario? Hassan will be at Pawtucket, trying to demonstrate that his great 2013 wasn't a fluke, to put himself in line for Gomes' job in 2015. Hassan could be the 6th OF and 3rd or 4th 1b, and if Gomes, Nava, Carp or Napoli (or any starting 1b) are injured could spend time in Boston |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2013 15:05:41 GMT -5
Hassan could be the 6th OF and 3rd or 4th 1b, and if Gomes, Nava, Carp or Napoli (or any starting 1b) are injured could spend time in Boston Exactly. He's competing with Brentz (and maybe Hazelbaker) to be the first OF or 1B called up in case of injury. That's not competing for an MLB job. People have a tendency to lose track of the number of 25-man roster spots. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 14, 2013 22:11:45 GMT -5
If he does hit, will he be the next Zach Daeges that just hits at the minor league level and then disappears to another organization. Yes.. I remember that Daeges hurt his ankle and then finally retired from it. Mean that Hassan just finally runs out of chances/time with Boston and they move him as a minor piece in a deal.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2013 5:48:47 GMT -5
If he does hit, will he be the next Zach Daeges that just hits at the minor league level and then disappears to another organization. Yes.. I remember that Daeges hurt his ankle and then finally retired from it. Mean that Hassan just finally runs out of chances/time with Boston and they move him as a minor piece in a deal. You apparently don't remember well enough. Daeges was cut after missing what was essentially three years due to injury from 2009-2011. He wasn't traded nor did he catch on with anyone else after getting cut. He's not a good comparison for anyone really (Kalish was a better prospect at all points, but he'd be the closest thing). Just a point of information. Carry on. |
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Post by elguapo on Oct 15, 2013 8:25:28 GMT -5
If he does hit, will he be the next Zach Daeges.... Their numbers are similar (if you take Lancaster with a grain of salt), except that Hassan was a year and a half younger coming up the ladder. I don't see any reason to think Hassan's year was a fluke: A+ - 287 / 397 / 456 / 853 AA - 291 / 404 / 456 / 860 AAA - 269 / 389 / 388 / 777 (pre-injury, through July) AAA - 321 / 431 / 460 / 891 I don't think he'll hit .320 regularly, but on the whole that's a very consistent progression. Daniel Nava, as a point of comparison, put up a combined AAA line of 280 / 379 / 438 / 817, and the Sox kept him around. |
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 20, 2013 16:22:30 GMT -5
Bump. All Rule 5 discussion should go here.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2013 16:41:44 GMT -5
One player who I haven't yet seen mentioned as a possibility to be picked is Chris Carpenter. I haven't personally been all that impressed when I've seen him, but he throws very hard, leaving him on a roster probably doesn't squash his development, and a team with lots of holes on its roster might find it worth taking a flier on him. There's not really anyone else I can see sticking. I like Diaz and Price but I think they're too far away.
In the days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs, players like Almanzar and de la Cruz aren't going to stick. The only position players worth a selection are someone with elite speed or defense who can be useful on the bench. A team just can't carry a position player who isn't ready to play.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 21, 2013 9:29:56 GMT -5
Some available players include:
ARI - RHP Kevin Munson, LHP Cody Wheeler
BOS - RHP Luis Diaz, RHP Mathew Price, 1B/3B Michael Almanzar
CWS - 1B Andy Wilkins
CHC - RHP Matt Loosen
CIN - OF Junior Arias
HOU - RHP Jake Buchanan, LHP Alex Sogard
KC - Brian Fletcher
MIA - RHP Josh Hodges
MFY - RHP Tommy Kahnle, LHP Freddy Lewis, RHP Chase Whitley, RHP Daniel Burawa
PHI - RHP Mike Nesseth, RHP Nefi Ogando (former Red Sox farmhand)
SD - RHP Matt Lollis
SEA - RHP Steven Shackleford, 2B/SS Ty Kelly
STL - RHP Seth Blair, RHP Boone Whiting
TOR - LHP Ricky Romero (you take him, you take his contract)
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Post by larrycook on Nov 21, 2013 11:11:47 GMT -5
In the days of 12 and 13 man pitching staffs, players like Almanzar and de la Cruz aren't going to stick. The only position players worth a selection are someone with elite speed or defense who can be useful on the bench. A team just can't carry a position player who isn't ready to play. There are a couple of teams that are thin in the outfield and maybe a Hazelbaker would look better than signing an overpriced veteran of the Free Agent scrap heap. But other than that, I agree, teams are hungry for pitching and I think could easily over project a couple of our available candidates. |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 21, 2013 11:21:21 GMT -5
Hazelbaker was traded to the Dodgers a few weeks back. He may get taken but I don't see him sticking. He had a sub-.700 OPS as a 25-year old, and he really faded as the season went on, hitting .221/.257/.308 with 56 strikeouts in 184 plate appearances from July 1 onward. The stolen bases are nice, but he's not much of a defensive outfielder either.
Again, in the days of 10-man pitching staffs there was an argument for using a roster spot on a dedicated pinch runner like Hazelbaker, but there isn't today.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 21, 2013 12:57:48 GMT -5
Hazelbaker was traded to the Dodgers a few weeks back. He may get taken but I don't see him sticking. He had a sub-.700 OPS as a 25-year old, and he really faded as the season went on, hitting .221/.257/.308 with 56 strikeouts in 184 plate appearances from July 1 onward. The stolen bases are nice, but he's not much of a defensive outfielder either. Again, in the days of 10-man pitching staffs there was an argument for using a roster spot on a dedicated pinch runner like Hazelbaker, but there isn't today. Actually kind of a shame on Hazelbaker. Not with Boston, but with a NL team one would think he had a chance as a PH/PR |
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Post by bosox81 on Nov 21, 2013 13:09:43 GMT -5
Some available players include: ARI - RHP Kevin Munson, LHP Cody Wheeler BOS - RHP Luis Diaz, RHP Mathew Price, 1B/3B Michael Almanzar CWS - 1B Andy Wilkins CHC - RHP Matt Loosen CIN - OF Junior Arias HOU - RHP Jake Buchanan, LHP Alex Sogard KC - Brian Fletcher MIA - RHP Josh Hodges MFY - RHP Tommy Kahnle, LHP Freddy Lewis, RHP Chase Whitley, RHP Daniel Burawa PHI - RHP Mike Nesseth, RHP Nefi Ogando (former Red Sox farmhand) SD - RHP Matt Lollis SEA - RHP Steven Shackleford, 2B/SS Ty Kelly STL - RHP Seth Blair, RHP Boone Whiting TOR - LHP Ricky Romero (you take him, you take his contract) I doubt Ty Kelly lasts until the Sox pick, but he'd be an interesting candidate for backup INF over Holt. |
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