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Post by jmei on Oct 17, 2013 8:43:46 GMT -5
I know the hubris around after Price got smashed was high, but honestly it's not fear of Price but rather the law of averages. Great pitcher pitches a crappy game the first time around. I would think he'd pitch a gem the next time out. Conversely a mediocre pitcher pitches the game of his life the first time out. I would expect a mediocre performance the next time out. It doesn't always work out that way, but I think it's a reasonable expectation. Right, and the law of averages would imply that Sanchez/Scherzer/Verlander are more likely to be merely very good pitchers next time out rather than unhittable pitchers. I mean, the Red Sox are probably underdogs in each of the next three games, but it's probably something like 52/48, 52/48, 55/45. |
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Post by Guidas on Oct 17, 2013 9:29:50 GMT -5
3. I finally contend that this is an extremely damaging loss because of the quality of the pitcher the Sox faced tonight - a #2-3 starter. Losing to Fister has forced them to now win the series against pitchers who profile more as # 1-2s, especially given that Buchholz has not pitched like a #1 since his return from injury and that Lackey's tremendous performance was likely aberrant. Meanwhile, Sanchez, Scherzer and Verlander have a much higher probability of repeating their relative performances in games 1-3 than Lackey does in repeating his, or Buchholz has of rediscovering his pre-injury performance level. And if that occurs the cheery silver lining articulated above will be moot as the Sox offense will likely rediscover its anemia. Just because a pitcher has pitched extremely well against the Red Sox once does not mean that they will do so again-- I hoped we'd learned this lesson after the ALDS where everyone was petrified of Price and Moore. Obviously, winning tonight would have made the Red Sox much, much more likely to win the series, and the Red Sox are probably slight underdogs if you projected the rest of the series out with a simulator. But you're doing this team a disservice if you don't think they still have a pretty good shot of taking two of three. Don't forget that Detroit has only scored off Boston pitching in 5 of 36 innings so far, and they looked pretty helpless against Lester, Lackey, and Buchholz's first five innings. I know defeatism has a long history 'round these parts, but it seems slightly misplaced to me. Trust me I want to be wrong. I'm the guy who picked the Sox to win the World Series before this season opened. And I really, really want them to win. But my reaction last night, I thought, was pretty clear-eyed given the circumstances this team faces going forward. My concern lies more with Buchholz and Lackey keeping pace with Scherzer and Verlander. I think Buchholz is a true #1 when he's right, but - so far - he's still not as sharp as he was before the injury. I love what Lackey has done this year - from rededicating himself physically to fighting through every low run support game he's pitched. But Lackey's performance the other night was once-in-a-lifetime; Verlander's performance was actually his worst start of his last 3. Positives: It's possible that they will hit Sanchez (who did walk 6) better tonight after seeing him five days ago. Also possible they wear down Scherzer (who seems to be a 110 or so pitch guy) and get to the Tiger pen again. The Sox have given Verlander a hard time over the years on occasion. They can rise to the occasion. It's what athletes do, and it's part of why we love this game. It will just be much, much more difficult to achieve - and it was especially hard to stomach when they had a much easier path to a win last night (before Peavy imploded). |
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Post by ishkabibble on Oct 17, 2013 10:11:23 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia's AB's are simply painful to watch. He is a strikeout waiting to happen from both sides of the plate. It looks as if he's just waving the bat up there with his eyes closed. ZERO confidence in that guy. I understand his popularity and his value to the team but this reminds me too much of Tek at the end of his career; no hitting, mediocre-at-best defense and can't throw out anyone....but the pitchers, coaches and teammates love him.
I have real questions about how much and how long a contract you give this guy.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 18, 2013 8:10:00 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia's AB's are simply painful to watch. He is a strikeout waiting to happen from both sides of the plate. It looks as if he's just waving the bat up there with his eyes closed. ZERO confidence in that guy. I understand his popularity and his value to the team but this reminds me too much of Tek at the end of his career; no hitting, mediocre-at-best defense and can't throw out anyone....but the pitchers, coaches and teammates love him.  |
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