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10/17 Red Sox vs. Tigers ALCS Game 5 Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2013 10:19:52 GMT -5
god drew has been pathetic At the plate Drew is baddddddd... however last night if Drew doesn't catch that airmailed high and behind him throw from Lester that game changer double play is an error and runs scored. In that game just that pick of a dumb pitcher throw saved the game at the time. Drew's value is high in defense and at the moment abysmal at the plate. But we need him at this time in the series! Yes. If even an average shortstop is in the game, that play doesn't get made - the body control Drew exhibited to basically change dircetion, recieve Lester's throw, and STILL be in position to turn the relay is really, really impressive. More to the point, a team with Middlebrooks at third and Bogaerts at short isn't really an upgrade offensively over Bogaerts/Drew - certainly not to where it's worth the downgrade on defense. There's really no reason to play Middlebrooks over Bogaerts at this point though, other than Middlebrooks was there first. And if that's going to be the deciding factor, let's get Butch Hobson over there.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2013 10:28:10 GMT -5
At the plate Drew is baddddddd... however last night if Drew doesn't catch that airmailed high and behind him throw from Lester that game changer double play is an error and runs scored. In that game just that pick of a dumb pitcher throw saved the game at the time. Drew's value is high in defense and at the moment abysmal at the plate. But we need him at this time in the series! Yes. If even an average shortstop is in the game, that play doesn't get made - the body control Drew exhibited to basically change dircetion, recieve Lester's throw, and STILL be in position to turn the relay is really, really impressive. More to the point, a team with Middlebrooks at third and Bogaerts at short isn't really an upgrade offensively over Bogaerts/Drew - certainly not to where it's worth the downgrade on defense. There's really no reason to play Middlebrooks over Bogaerts at this point though, other than Middlebrooks was there first. And if that's going to be the deciding factor, let's get Butch Hobson over there. Bogaerts/WMB is a lot more potent offensively. Drew is 1-17, striking out about half the time this series. WMB has been bad but not nearly as bad as Drew. 3rd is also not Xanders position, SS is.
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Post by jmei on Oct 18, 2013 10:56:59 GMT -5
Yes. If even an average shortstop is in the game, that play doesn't get made - the body control Drew exhibited to basically change dircetion, recieve Lester's throw, and STILL be in position to turn the relay is really, really impressive. More to the point, a team with Middlebrooks at third and Bogaerts at short isn't really an upgrade offensively over Bogaerts/Drew - certainly not to where it's worth the downgrade on defense. There's really no reason to play Middlebrooks over Bogaerts at this point though, other than Middlebrooks was there first. And if that's going to be the deciding factor, let's get Butch Hobson over there. Bogaerts/WMB is a lot more potent offensively. Drew is 1-17, striking out about half the time this series. WMB has been bad but not nearly as bad as Drew. 3rd is also not Xanders position, SS is. I mean, Middlebrooks is 1/10 with five strikeouts and no walks in the series, which is only very marginally better. Drew also has a much stronger record of offensive performance in the recent past and the platoon advantage. Xander may have played more games at SS, but it should be pretty indisputable that Bogaerts/Drew gives you better defense on the left side of the infield than Bogaerts/Middlebrooks, not to mention that having superior defense at SS is much more important than having it at 3B (SS gets more balls hit to it, is more involved in relay throws, and has to handle potential double plays). Outside of your well-established personal disdain for Drew, there's pretty much no reason to sit him in favor of Will Middlebrooks. EDIT: Sorry, that last sentence comes off harsher than it seems. We all have players we irrationally dislike-- I have Brentz and Lavarnway, johnsilver has Saltalamacchia, moonstone has Nava, etc. It's just that we have to recognize when we're letting our predispositions override what would otherwise be the best baseball decision.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2013 11:12:52 GMT -5
Yes. If even an average shortstop is in the game, that play doesn't get made - the body control Drew exhibited to basically change dircetion, recieve Lester's throw, and STILL be in position to turn the relay is really, really impressive. More to the point, a team with Middlebrooks at third and Bogaerts at short isn't really an upgrade offensively over Bogaerts/Drew - certainly not to where it's worth the downgrade on defense. There's really no reason to play Middlebrooks over Bogaerts at this point though, other than Middlebrooks was there first. And if that's going to be the deciding factor, let's get Butch Hobson over there. Bogaerts/WMB is a lot more potent offensively. Drew is 1-17, striking out about half the time this series. WMB has been bad but not nearly as bad as Drew. 3rd is also not Xanders position, SS is. I think it's important to remember Drew was a much better hitter than WMB this year, and it wasn't close. So no, 9 playoff games where both guys struggle mightily isn't changing anything in WMB's favor. I'm not sure why we're talking about Xander's natural position either, Drew is clearly superior defensively, and obviously you'd look to maximize defense at shortstop over third. I don't get where this Middlebrooks love comes from, he's been bad this season. I'm not expecting it to change at this point.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2013 11:14:44 GMT -5
Bogaerts/WMB is a lot more potent offensively. Drew is 1-17, striking out about half the time this series. WMB has been bad but not nearly as bad as Drew. 3rd is also not Xanders position, SS is. I mean, Middlebrooks is 1/10 with five strikeouts and no walks in the series, which is only very marginally better. Drew also has a much stronger record of offensive performance in the recent past and the platoon advantage. Xander may have played more games at SS, but it should be pretty indisputable that Bogaerts/Drew gives you better defense on the left side of the infield than Bogaerts/Middlebrooks, not to mention that having superior defense at SS is much more important than having it at 3B (SS gets more balls hit to it, is more involved in relay throws, and has to handle potential double plays). Outside of your well-established personal disdain for Drew, there's pretty much no reason to sit him in favor of Will Middlebrooks. EDIT: Sorry, that last sentence comes off harsher than it seems. We all have players we irrationally dislike-- I have Brentz and Lavarnway, johnsilver has Saltalamacchia, moonstone has Nava, etc. It's just that we have to recognize when we're letting our predispositions override what would otherwise be the best baseball decision. No worries, we can agree to disagree. Part of it is that Will can be like Napoli sometimes in the sense that when he gets hot, he can change a series. He can get very cold but its nice to have a power bat that low in the order. I know my disdain for Drew is established but i'm also a fan of WMB and Bogaerts and hope we keep both of them.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,834
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 18, 2013 11:28:00 GMT -5
Why wouldn't the Sox be keeping both of them?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2013 11:46:49 GMT -5
Why wouldn't the Sox be keeping both of them? Some people have suggested trading Will, keeping Drew and moving Xander to 3rd.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 18, 2013 11:50:46 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see if Avila attempts to play in game 6 as he was not moving that well after Ross bowled into him. A hobbled Avila or Pena, who looks like he could give Fielder a run for his money in a pie eating contest, means that there will be increased opportunities for the Red Sox to run which they should do against Sherzer.
It was also encouraging last night as the Red Sox players adjusted their approach with Sanchez, including swinging earlier in the counts and laying off his slow stuff.
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 18, 2013 12:14:13 GMT -5
Why wouldn't the Sox be keeping both of them? Some people have suggested trading Will, keeping Drew and moving Xander to 3rd. If they do that after trading away Iglesias I am gonna be all kinds of pissed. Xander is our SS moving forward, we made our choice to sacrifice defense for offense already.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 18, 2013 12:17:28 GMT -5
The Tigers and Sox have scored 29 runs between them in five games, an average of 3.2 runs per game for the Tigers and 2.6 for the Sox, way below their season averages. What's that saying about good pitching?
Does anyone think that Pedroia stands too far from the plate? It looks that way on TV. He appears to be lunging at the ball, and having trouble reaching the outside pitches. He's not dropping those flares into right field like he used to do. He certainly is not the presence at the plate he once was. He looks like someone trying to imitate him, and not doing a very good job.
I'm for keeping Ellsbury and Victorino at the top of the order. I think Victorino will snap out of his slump, and those two can have a dramatic impact on a game if they both hit. It was dumb for him to hit left-handed last night.
Every time Bogaerts comes to the plate I have a feeling he is about to change the game. It's only a matter of time and opportunity. He should be in the lineup, and right now, 3B probably is the best place. Drew has been horrible at the plate, and certainly should not bat higher than 8th, but he has been sensational in the field. With games being settled by one run, that defense is critical.
Farrell seems to have a strong feeling that Gomes is going to change a game as well. There is no other justification for keeping him in the lineup against RHPs. I'd rather see him come off the bench. I think it is a better role for him, and Nava is a better hitter overall, and a better defender.
After Peavy's performance, which I think is unforgivable, I now wish that trade had not been made. And I was a big Peavy fan. But there is no excuse for his performance.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2013 12:20:32 GMT -5
The Tigers and Sox have scored 29 runs between them in five games, an average of 3.2 runs per game for the Tigers and 2.6 for the Sox, way below their season averages. What's that saying about good pitching? Does anyone think that Pedroia stands too far from the plate? It looks that way on TV. He appears to be lunging at the ball, and having trouble reaching the outside pitches. He's not dropping those flares into right field like he used to do. He certainly is not the presence at the plate he once was. He looks like someone trying to imitate him, and not doing a very good job. I'm for keeping Ellsbury and Victorino at the top of the order. I think Victorino will snap out of his slump, and those two can have a dramatic impact on a game if they both hit. It was dumb for him to hit left-handed last night. Every time Bogaerts comes to the plate I have a feeling he is about to change the game. It's only a matter of time and opportunity. He should be in the lineup, and right now, 3B probably is the best place. Drew has been horrible at the plate, and certainly should not bat higher than 8th, but he has been sensational in the field. With games being settled by one run, that defense is critical. Farrell seems to have a strong feeling that Gomes is going to change a game as well. There is no other justification for keeping him in the lineup against RHPs. I'd rather see him come off the bench. I think it is a better role for him, and Nava is a better hitter overall, and a better defender. After Peavy's performance, which I think is unforgivable, I now wish that trade had not been made. And I was a big Peavy fan. But there is no excuse for his performance. He pitched well enough in the Rays game. The Tigers are truly an elite line up and he is out of the inning if Pedroia doesn't bobble that ball. He should be fine pitching on the road with NL rules I think if we get to the WS.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 18, 2013 12:32:38 GMT -5
I don't like "songs" and rarely repost others' work - but this is something worth sharing from the Globe online:
Mine eyes have seen the closer as he stands upon the mound, He is trampling out the posers as the strike zone he doth pound. The game is quickly over, there are high fives all around, His team goes marching on.
Koji, Koji Uehara, Koji, Koji Uehara, Koji, Koji Uehara,
His team goes marching on.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2013 12:56:44 GMT -5
Two things: At Fenway especially Victorino's defense is crucial, and honestly so is Drew's defense, so even if they are both totally lost at the plate, they contribute something important, so I'd still keep them in the lineup. And the funny thing is - as much as I didn't want to see Koji have to get five outs, it's because of my faith in Breslow, who has been wonderful. Normally I'd be screaming to go to Koji, but Breslow has earned trust and kudos. Could also be a test of Peralta in LF. He wasn't really challenged by the Monster last time. Something off the tin could end up being a triple, Good point. Hope he plays the wall as well as Sean Rodriguez and David DeJesus played it during the ALDS. Also hope the Red Sox hitters are able to bang balls off the wall (or preferably over the wall).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2013 13:12:54 GMT -5
I mean, Middlebrooks is 1/10 with five strikeouts and no walks in the series, which is only very marginally better. Drew also has a much stronger record of offensive performance in the recent past and the platoon advantage. Xander may have played more games at SS, but it should be pretty indisputable that Bogaerts/Drew gives you better defense on the left side of the infield than Bogaerts/Middlebrooks, not to mention that having superior defense at SS is much more important than having it at 3B (SS gets more balls hit to it, is more involved in relay throws, and has to handle potential double plays). Outside of your well-established personal disdain for Drew, there's pretty much no reason to sit him in favor of Will Middlebrooks. EDIT: Sorry, that last sentence comes off harsher than it seems. We all have players we irrationally dislike-- I have Brentz and Lavarnway, johnsilver has Saltalamacchia, moonstone has Nava, etc. It's just that we have to recognize when we're letting our predispositions override what would otherwise be the best baseball decision. No worries, we can agree to disagree. Part of it is that Will can be like Napoli sometimes in the sense that when he gets hot, he can change a series. He can get very cold but its nice to have a power bat that low in the order. I know my disdain for Drew is established but i'm also a fan of WMB and Bogaerts and hope we keep both of them. You can say the exact same thing about Drew. Except that Drew will also give you better at bats even when he's not hitting.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 18, 2013 13:17:21 GMT -5
god drew has been pathetic There's no getting around how abysmal Drew has been at the plate, but his defense has still been really really good. Considering how close these games have been - and, for the most part, low scoring - his D is worth the automatic that. For that reason, I wouldn't mind seeing Ross get the starts over Salty, even if he doesn't produce anything else at the plate.I LOVE David Ross. His defense is impeccable, and while he's not a great hitter, he does come through here and there. He can bunt well, crush extra base hits here and there, and is more patient than Salty. In fact, he has a higher career OBP, SLG, and OBP than Salty. I'm not arguing he's actually better offensively at this point, but I'd take Ross batting ninth and reaping his defensive benefits over having Salty batting 6th or 7th. I really hope he starts one of the next 2 games.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 18, 2013 13:26:05 GMT -5
No worries, we can agree to disagree. Part of it is that Will can be like Napoli sometimes in the sense that when he gets hot, he can change a series. He can get very cold but its nice to have a power bat that low in the order. I know my disdain for Drew is established but i'm also a fan of WMB and Bogaerts and hope we keep both of them. You can say the exact same thing about Drew. Except that Drew will also give you better at bats even when he's not hitting. Gotta disagree with you there. WMB was white hot when he first came back and was cranking out homers like it was going out of style. Remember the granny he had against (coincidentally) the Tigers earlier in the september? And the series against the Yanks toward the end of the season?
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 18, 2013 13:36:33 GMT -5
You can say the exact same thing about Drew. Except that Drew will also give you better at bats even when he's not hitting. Gotta disagree with you there. WMB was white hot when he first came back and was cranking out homers like it was going out of style. Remember the granny he had against (coincidentally) the Tigers earlier in the september? And the series against the Yanks toward the end of the season? So what? He had two hot streaks that were outdone by two longer super cold streaks. Drew on the other hand was more consistent, both in his results and the quality of his at-bats. The only advantage of playing Middlebrooks over him that I can think of is the increase in power potential. Drew has shown that he is a quality MLB hitting shortstop over many seasons in the league, including this one. The jury is still out on Middlebrooks ability to hit with any consistency at all. EDIT: Hot streaks: 8/10 to 8/21: .441/.535/.706/1.241, with a 5/7 UBB/K. 9/4 to 9/8: 500/.542/.1091/1.633 with a 2/3 UBB/K. That was the 5 game surge when we demolished the Tigers in that final game and then dismantled the Yankees Cold Streaks: 8/23 to 9/3: .193/.219/.191/.412 with a 1/10 UBB/K. 9/10 to 9/29: .138/.153/.259/.411 with a 0/18 UBB/K!
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Post by jmei on Oct 18, 2013 13:42:30 GMT -5
You can say the exact same thing about Drew. Except that Drew will also give you better at bats even when he's not hitting. Gotta disagree with you there. WMB was white hot when he first came back and was cranking out homers like it was going out of style. Remember the granny he had against (coincidentally) the Tigers earlier in the september? And the series against the Yanks toward the end of the season? Even if the above is true, are there any indications that Middlebrooks is about to embark on a hot streak now? If we're comparing their ability to break out of a slump, I trust Drew much more than Middlebrooks, who had to be demoted to the minors and make major changes to his batting stance before he (temporarily) re-found his stroke.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2013 13:56:15 GMT -5
Both players had stretches of being extremely good and extremely bad this year. Both are awful at the plate right now - sorry, but there's no way you can justify WMB playing over Drew based on his one hit coming in fewer at-bats. That's splitting hairs to a useless degree.
I am strongly of the opinion that most people's views on this are tainted by (1) the fact that WMB is homegrown and Drew is a one-year mercenary, (2) the fact that the area where Drew is clearly more valuable (defense) is less simple to quantify and is in a less flashy manner than the area where WMB is probably better (power), and (3) the fact that Drew is J.D.'s brother (and happened to have injury issues this year).
Ideally, you'd get both out of the lineup, but if you're taking one out, I think it has to be Middlebrooks. The defensive issues created by Bogaerts at 3B (that he has little experience there) are lesser than those created by, for example, essentially debuting a double play combo during the ALCS, putting a 21-year-old at a marquee position during the playoffs with minimal MLB experience, etc.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 18, 2013 15:26:49 GMT -5
That DP that Bogaerts started last night looked as professional as it could be. He took a hot smash and made a quick throw at exactly the right level to Pedroia. I don't think the Sox are losing much defense with him at 3B.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 18, 2013 15:36:37 GMT -5
That DP that Bogaerts started last night looked as professional as it could be. He took a hot smash and made a quick throw at exactly the right level to Pedroia. I don't think the Sox are losing much defense with him at 3B. I disagree, the throw was very slow and soft and made it a closer play than it should have been and almost got Pedey killed... this coming from a Bogaerts lover who can do no wrong... I wasn't even mad when he didn't score from second on the double.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2013 16:26:11 GMT -5
You can say the exact same thing about Drew. Except that Drew will also give you better at bats even when he's not hitting. Gotta disagree with you there. WMB was white hot when he first came back and was cranking out homers like it was going out of style. Remember the granny he had against (coincidentally) the Tigers earlier in the september? And the series against the Yanks toward the end of the season? Remember when Stephan Drew had a much better offensive season than Middlebrooks did?
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Post by p23w on Oct 18, 2013 17:01:00 GMT -5
I agree with the majority of comments about pitching. I'll throw out one "pet" observation which is that the more times batters get to see pitchers the better swings and AB's they generate. Having said that I believe that batters have a longer learning curve against power pitchers. I think the Peavy/Fister gave was a good example.
I have concern about the Scherzer/Buchholz match-up. While I think Buchholz's secondary pitches are better than Scherzer's, The 6 mph difference in their fastballs gives an edge to Scherzer when comes done to the batters making adjustments. I am also concerned about Uehara. Not from the POV of Koji being overworked (although I don't discount that as a contributing factor) but from the reference point of batter familiarity. He's not a hard thrower and nearly everybody in the Tiger line-up has faced him (several more than once in this series). In particular I did not like the way Koji got his outs in the 9th.
To date the story of this series has been all about pitching, which is as it should be. Each starter, with the exception of Peavy was locked in early, or in the case of Sanchez's 2nd start, locked in after the second inning. Hitting against the caliber of pitching as seen so far in this series, is much more problematical to predict. My only comment for a game 6 line up would be to include Nava. Nava hits well low in the strike zone and also goes the other way (to LF) better than most.
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Post by mainesox on Oct 19, 2013 15:46:00 GMT -5
That DP that Bogaerts started last night looked as professional as it could be. He took a hot smash and made a quick throw at exactly the right level to Pedroia. I don't think the Sox are losing much defense with him at 3B. I disagree, the throw was very slow and soft and made it a closer play than it should have been and almost got Pedey killed... this coming from a Bogaerts lover who can do no wrong... I wasn't even mad when he didn't score from second on the double. The throw got to 1B with time to spare; it looked to me like he was being deliberate and wanted to make an accurate throw to 2B because he knew there was time - he wasn't rushing.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 19, 2013 16:45:48 GMT -5
Bogaerts said he was just trying to make sure he got the guy at 2nd. That was his priority. It took a great turn by Pedroia to turn that DP.
All that said, Bogaerts did give Pedey a good chest level throw and that alone is difficult enough. It just could have been delivered a little quicker. If Iglesias had delivered that ball to 2nd the guy running to first would have been out by a step and a half.
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