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10/19 Red Sox vs. Tigers ALCS Game 6 Thread
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2013 18:20:07 GMT -5
Big Papi is 7/17, 2B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 4 SO. Like with Ellsbury, that's good enough to not bother looking to see whether he did it just when Max was off his game.
Two splits back this up. One he shares with Drew -- the .009 better for moderate LH flyball hitters. He's also a neutral BABIP hitter, which may or may not matter, but if it does, Scherzer has allowed .281 versus .271 average.
In general, the guys who damage Scherzer are LHB who are neither extreme flyball hitters nor extreme K rate guys. If Carp could play LF, I'd look at his history to see why he's 2/11, BB, 7 SO against him. He should hit him better than that.
Again, David has to do damage if we're going to score some runs tonight. I wish Victorino had been dropped in the order, because it would be good to not have two batters between Ellsbury and Ortiz.
Napoli is just 1/13, BB, 5 SO. All of that was with Texas, so let's put up Napoli's line and Scherzer's.
0/3, K [6 7 2 2 2 7] 1/3 (GB up middle) [6 6 2 2 1 1 ] 0/3, 2 K [6 6 3 3 1 6] 0/1, BB [2.1 5 6 6 4 1] 0/3, 2 K, lineout [6 8 2 2 2 8]
It's not any more encouraging when you factor in how on or off his game Scherzer was. But Napoli himself is streaky, and he's locked in right now.
As mentioned already, he's in Scherzer's Death Split, the .147 allowed to to the .236 group of extreme K rate RHB. But Napoli is an unusual member of that group in that he's good. And Scherzer's ability to dominate guys who go deep in the count appears to collapse (emphasis because the SS is small) against RHB with Napoli's extreme walk rate: he's allowed .331 (in 131 PA) to a group of 19 guys who average .285. He's allowed a ton of homers to these guys (.108 per contact).
This to me looks like all or nothing, and a key, key factor. Strikeout or homer? Likely to be one or the other ... which would you prefer? (Rhetorical question.)
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 19, 2013 18:31:04 GMT -5
I happen to agree with your assessment on his breaks but what does that have to do with him playing the wall or throwing ability? Oh nothing at all there. Was just pointing it out. probably shouldn't have posted anything with so many others having posted so much.. Well ets just say I went back a few pages and it's been kind of heated.. Lemme' add I wasn't piling on is it...
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2013 18:41:05 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia is 5/15, HR, 4 K. Most of the damage was in his first two games against him: 2/3 (both line drives), K back in 2009 (Scherzer was 6 7 2 2 1 7) and 2/3, HR, K last May (Scherzer 6 7 3 3 2 6). But he had that HR-in-29 parks shot to RF in Game 2.
Now, he happens to have both of the LHB splits that favor Scherzer: he's an extreme FB hitter like Nava, and an extreme K rate guy (whom Scherzer has held to .239 versus .264 average ; it's 28 guys with 228 PA).
However, he has two favorable hardness-of-contact splits. Scherzer's splits versus LHB by HR / Contact correlate beautifully with the expected numbers, so (contrary to my earlier guess) he's not particularly sensitive to this at all. But the splits are a little larger than the baseline / average / expected numbers, so you always like LHB with HR pop against him. Ortiz is an extreme HR rate guy, of course, and Scherzer has allowed .297 versus .296 expected; versus the moderate guys like Saltalamaccia (and Carp), he's allowed .288 versus .285. In other words, LHB with HR pop treat Scherzer like he was league-average. That's good!
I'm skeptical that the BABIP splits are meaningful, but of they are, Salty is an extreme high guy, and Scherzer has allowed .300 versus .292 expected. This is probably just the same phenomenon as the HR split: for the most part, he has nothing to neutralize LHB who hit the ball hard.
My guess is that Scherzer's great numbers against LHB who are extreme FB hitters only applies to guys with average power like Nava -- IOW, they're guys he can get to pop up or hit easy fly balls. I like this matchup; it's another area where we can do some damage even if Scherzer is on. The only caveat is that Salty should be striking out much more against this guy; if that happens in a key spot, don't be surprised, alas.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 19, 2013 18:44:29 GMT -5
I happen to agree with your assessment on his breaks but what does that have to do with him playing the wall or throwing ability? Oh nothing at all there. Was just pointing it out. probably shouldn't have posted anything with so many others having posted so much.. Well ets just say I went back a few pages and it's been kind of heated.. Lemme' add I wasn't piling on is it... I'd argue that Nava is better or at least on par with Gomes in every facet of defense: - Nava has far better DRS ratings - Nava has a slightly better UZR/150 - Nava certainly appears to have more range to me - rARM (DRS) and ARM (UZR) rate Nava's arm better than Gomes (although Gomes had the better 2013). Gomes has had several accurate throws with decent arm strength, but Nava's arm is respectable as well (ex. wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=12436237&c_id=mlb and wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=21901481&c_id=mlb)- Nava usually plays the wall very well, just like Gomes - Nava gets better reads on the ball in general - There's a reason Nava was the backup RF all season over Gomes
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 19, 2013 18:46:30 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia is 5/15, HR, 4 K. Most of the damage was in his first two games against him: 2/3 (both line drives), K back in 2009 (Scherzer was 6 7 2 2 1 7) and 2/3, HR, K last May (Scherzer 6 7 3 3 2 6). But he had that HR-in-29 parks shot to RF in Game 2. Now, he happens to have both of the LHB splits that favor Scherzer: he's an extreme FB hitter like Nava, and an extreme K rate guy (whom Scherzer has held to .239 versus .264 average ; it's 28 guys with 228 PA). However, he has two favorable hardness-of-contact splits. Scherzer's splits versus LHB by HR / Contact correlate beautifully with the expected numbers, so (contrary to my earlier guess) he's not particularly sensitive to this at all. But the splits are a little larger than the baseline / average / expected numbers, so you always like LHB with HR pop against him. Ortiz is an extreme HR rate guy, of course, and Scherzer has allowed .297 versus .296 expected; versus the moderate guys like Saltalamaccia (and Carp), he's allowed .288 versus .285. In other words, LHB with HR pop treat Scherzer like he was league-average. That's good! I'm skeptical that the BABIP splits are meaningful, but of they are, Salty is an extreme high guy, and Scherzer has allowed .300 versus .292 expected. This is probably just the same phenomenon as the HR split: for the most part, he has nothing to neutralize LHB who hit the ball hard. My guess is that Scherzer's great numbers against LHB who are extreme FB hitters only applies to guys with average power like Nava -- IOW, they're guys he can get to pop up or hit easy fly balls. I like this matchup; it's another area where we can do some damage even if Scherzer is on. The only caveat is that Salty should be striking out much more against this guy; if that happens in a key spot, don't be surprised, alas. I am never surprised when Salty strikes out in a key situation. Thanks for the analysis, good stuff!
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2013 19:00:29 GMT -5
Do not want to face Verlander in a game 7. Let's end this tonight!
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2013 19:31:33 GMT -5
That's a pretty awful leadoff AB from Ellsbury. The first strike call was a little generous, but he's a good contact guy and needs to protect the plate with two strikes.
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Post by soxfan06 on Oct 19, 2013 19:36:29 GMT -5
Nava's getting screwed cause Farrell is ridiculous.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 19, 2013 19:52:39 GMT -5
Can we just get a consistent zone and let these guys play
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2013 20:00:28 GMT -5
Boy that was an intangible 3 strike at bat.
OK, I'm done.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 19, 2013 20:01:20 GMT -5
Boy that was an intangible 3 strike at bat. OK, I'm done. Not like Scherzer's splits or nasty slider or Gomes profile vs. RHP's could have predicted that type of "gritty" at bat.
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2013 20:02:59 GMT -5
Boy, we're back to the strikeout parade, eh?
Scherzer has thrown a few first strike fastballs that look very hittable. Would love to see a few of these lefties try to drive one of those pitches to the opposite field and take advantage of the Monster.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 19, 2013 20:08:08 GMT -5
We obviously are going all out to try to get Scherzer's pitch count up. Leyland said he can go 125 pitches though so good luck with that. Scherzer came out and said the other day that his focus was to get strike one most of all. He basically said he was going to try to get strike one as his primary focus and there we are watching it go by over and over.
It's hard to believe that is going to be approach all game if it isn't working by the 3rd or 4th inning. We need his pitch count to be up past 60 after 3 at least for this approach to have potential today.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 19, 2013 20:08:11 GMT -5
If the Sox advance how much do you think that will cut down on Tigers in inning interviews?
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2013 20:10:13 GMT -5
To be fair, Scherzer and Verlander are pretty charismatic baseball players.
Buchholz is racking up the swings-and-misses early. Good sign, even if he's left a few changeups up.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 19, 2013 20:14:36 GMT -5
Buchholz is pretty skinny and his pitch count is high. We will be lucky to get 6 out of him today. He's doing well but I wouldn't push it today.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 19, 2013 20:14:47 GMT -5
Time to swing at the first pitch X.
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2013 20:16:38 GMT -5
God, that was a great at-bat from Xander. He's going to be a true superstar.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 19, 2013 20:17:44 GMT -5
This Xander kid has looked pretty good, anybody know anything about him?
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 19, 2013 20:19:44 GMT -5
This Xander kid has looked pretty good, anybody know anything about him? He has good speed according to McCarver.
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Post by charliezink16 on Oct 19, 2013 20:21:12 GMT -5
God, that was a great at-bat from Xander. He's going to be a true superstar. 4 walks in 9 postseason PA's. Via Rob Bradford, his 5.75 PPA now lead any Sox hitter this postseason. I don't see him exiting this starting lineup for a long time...
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Post by preston on Oct 19, 2013 20:21:27 GMT -5
I feel completely comfortable having Xander bat second. I doubt that it happens this October but he's a pro.
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Post by rangoon82 on Oct 19, 2013 20:21:51 GMT -5
2 on, no outs. 2-3-4 coming up. Big spot for the Sox best hitters.
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Post by preston on Oct 19, 2013 20:23:04 GMT -5
insert code here All for a sacrificial bunt say aye.
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Post by jmei on Oct 19, 2013 20:23:21 GMT -5
Goddamnit Shane. That was an awful bunt attempt.
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