10/23 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Game 1 Thread

"Also, my hope is Farrell is very judicious on running tonight unless it's REALLY necessary. No need to risk setting a bad tone vs Molina. It could set a positive tone as well..."


You seem very concerned about the "Tone". I was real worried about the tone in the ALCS right up until Ortiz' grand slam. Then I remembered there's no such thing as momentum in baseball...

Sure, but a unhealhty pitching Buchholz makes me even more nervous. He was at 88 MPH in his last outing. That's not going to cut it.

A pitch/fx comparison between the repertoires of Wainwright and Lester ...

Which is rather facilitated by the fact that they throw the same five pitches at essentially the same velocities.This is based on Lester since the ASB and Wainwright in October, where his velocity is up significantly, after trending in that direction since June.

Pitch Les Wai
FB 94.1 93.7
Sin 92.5 93.7
Cut 90.4 90.0
Ch 86.7 85.8
Cur 77.5 78.2
Relative to his 0.4 mph faster fastball, Lester's change is 0.5 mph faster, his sinker is 1.6 mph slower, and his curve is 1.1 mph slower. 

Let's take a look at their pitch movement, starting with the fastball. Lester's moves more, 11.7" vs. 9.4": 9.7" vs. 9.0" of rise, and 6.6" versus 2.8" of armside run. The latter is quite a big difference, actually. The relationship between rise and armside run is largely a product of arm angle -- the lower the slot, the less rise and more armside run. That Lester can get more rise than Wainwright while getting a lot more run speaks to the quality of his 4-seamer, and helps explain why he throws it 49% of the time versus 22% for Wainwright.

All other pitch movement, I firmly believe, should be taken relative to fastball movement. Wainwright's curve breaks 7.1" horizontally versus Lester's 3.9", but that's more or less the same difference as their fastball movement, so to the hitter, keying on the arm slot and hence the expected run of all the pitches, it's the same movement away. To be more exact, Lester is actually getting 10.4" of relative break versus 10.0" for Wainwright ... but Wainwright gets 18.0" of drop compared to his fastball rise, versus 13.6" for Lester. That's an outrageous drop, and that's most of why Wainwright throws it 38% of the time versus 12% for Lester.

The pitch that they both rely on more or less equally is the cutter, which Lester throws 21% of the time and Wainwright 25%. Lester's moves a bit better; he gets 5.4" of relative break or cut versus 4.5" for Wainwright, and 4.5" versus 3.9" of relative drop. The interesting thing, though, is that Lester's cutter still moves in on lefty hitters and away from righties (just a lot less than his four-seamer), while Wainwright's, in contrast, moves away from righties and in on lefties (a sentence designed to be baffling to the average person). In other words, when taken out of the context of their fastballs, these pitches behave almost identically even though they're being thrown with opposite hands. But I bet it doesn't look that way to the hitter.

Neither throws the 2-seamer or sinker that much -- Lester 8%, Wainwright 13%. They're very different. Lester gets 4.1" of relative sink versus 1.8" for Wainwright (BrooksBaseball calls it a sinker; I think I'd just call it a 2-seamer). Wainwright, though, gets 5.3" of extra armside run compared to 3.8" for Lester. Hmm, you think, more run ... does Wainwright actually drop his arm angle to get that? Yes, he does. In fact, while Lester releases all his pitches from the exact same slot, Wainwright throws his curve and cutter from the same slot, drops down a tiny bit (0.1") for his 4-seamer and a bit more for his sinker (0.25"), with the change somewhere between the latter two. I rather doubt that these very small differences are noticeable to hitters, but I find it interesting that Wainwright does this but Lester doesn't. I would think that keeping the exact same slot would lead to better command, maybe.

Lester throws the change 9% of the time, Wainwright 2%. They're pretty darn similar; Lester gets 6.2" of relative drop compared to 5.9" for Wainwright, but just 3.9" of extra armisde run versus 4.6".

I think it'll be a long time before you see a matchup of two guys this close. Wainwright has the big drop on his go-to pitch, the hook, and Lester has more movement (about 80% of a baseball width, which strikes me as substantial) on his go-to pitch, the fastball, and of course everything Lester throws runs in more because of the arm angle. Other than that, they're almost mirror clones.

Word has it that Bucholz will start either Saturday or Sunday in St. Louis. Doubront throwing the simulated game was just a precaution. It also looks like Thorton will be added to the roster. Obviously he'd be taking Morales spot.

I actually think that Doubront could be a weapon either as a starter or in a semi-piggy-back role with Clay. I think that Buchholz's problem is definitely stamina related. It's got to be hard to be shut down for 2 months then to quickly ramp it up for two weeks. He's probably hitting that dead arm period that can come after a long lay-off (think offseason to ST).

Nope

Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 1u
After all of the fuss yesterday, Matt Thornton is not on the Red Sox postseason roster. Everything remains the same.

Since our manager has gone to starting guys with more intangibles, "tone"'s become the new metric.

What if Peavy gets rocked, Doubront is great in relief, but Farrell gets a hunch that Peavy will be great in game 7?

This quote made me laugh...


...and if they win the series, it's OJ spiked with vodka.

Like Gomes, Morales played in the game 6 win, and we want to keep that momentum going into the World Series.

Luckily, for games 3, 4 and 5 there will be no DH and some easy outs will be there. Game 6 will be Lackey and if there is a Game 7 (which there usually isn't) then we still have a pretty good pitcher out there going up against Kelly who isn't necessarily better, and we would be at home.

Just heard Olney on WEEI say that, except for the closer, Tampa uses a mix and match approach to their pen and that the Cardinals have adapted the same strategy. The message is, "We're not about defined roles. We're about you getting outs when they ask for you on the phone."

Well, they have no defined roles except that Rosenthal is the closer, and Martinez always pitches the 8th when they're ahead, and Choate will face the opposing team's best LH hitter once unless the above two things plus the starter going 7 renders that impossible.

So what I really think they mean is that they don't have a designated 7th inning guy. As Farrell will mix and match Tazawa and Breslow (and some Koji, thank you) in the 8th, we actually have less defined roles than they do.