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10/23 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Game 1 Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Oct 22, 2013 11:27:47 GMT -5
10/23 Red Sox (LHP Jon Lester 2-1 2.33) vs. Cardinals (RHP Adam Wainwright 2-1 1.57) 8:07 pm ET, FOX/WEEI World Series Game 1Season SeriesDid not meet How they got here?Red Sox 97-65 AL East Champions, Beat Tampa Bay 3-1 in ALDS, Beat Detroit 4-2 in ALCS Cardinals 97-65 NL Central Champions, Beat Pittsburgh 3-2 in NLDS, Beat Los Angeles 4-2 in NLCS Playoff History2004 World Series - Boston won 4-0 1967 World Series - St. Louis won 4-3 1946 World Series - St. Louis won 4-3 MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by 1mpaz10 on Oct 22, 2013 12:24:00 GMT -5
Should be a good one. Sox gotta set the tone early in the series.
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Post by lennsakata on Oct 22, 2013 14:51:17 GMT -5
Have tickets to game 1 and 2 after seeing my first ALCS game last series. Weather looks pretty cold, probably high 30's, with possible rain on Wed. May be to our advantage although I imagine neither team will look great offensively in these first two.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2013 15:03:02 GMT -5
@jtomase Key to Cards: They hit .330 with RISP, highest in recorded history. It's no BABIP fluke. They simplify approach to CF and RCF w/ runners on.
Does anyone know if this is accurate - i.e. not a BABIP fluke?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Oct 22, 2013 15:05:39 GMT -5
@jtomase Key to Cards: They hit .330 with RISP, highest in recorded history. It's no BABIP fluke. They simplify approach to CF and RCF w/ runners on. Does anyone know if this is accurate - i.e. not a BABIP fluke? BABIP prefers Budweiser. Hence, the high numbers.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2013 15:54:05 GMT -5
Ballpark overlays, in case you haven't gotten to this (aka what I do while waiting at the dentist's office)
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Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2013 17:13:47 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2013 18:19:24 GMT -5
Alex Speier goes on Jonah Keri's podcast and discusses Nava v. Gomes and how to develop team chemistry: espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=9863131I found Speier's endorsement of the Gomes option interesting. I understand his rationale (Gomes' power and sneaky baserunning plays up in a low-run-scoring environment where it's hard to string hits together), but even then, I think it's "gut instinct"-type thinking that runs against the numbers. For instance, Gomes' ISO versus right-handed pitchers was .146 in 2013 while Nava's ISO was .162. Gomes' ISO slightly overtakes Nava's when you look at their three-year splits versus righties, but Nava still has a much higher raw slugging percentage (.459 to .382) and is better offensively to a pretty enormous degree (137 wRC+ to 92). As I've been saying, if the gap between the two was closer, I could understand a combination of better baserunning, more power, and better energy or intangibles making Gomes the better starter. And Gomes could certainly ambush a pitch like he did with Verlander and make me look dumb again. But it's really, really hard to come up with a statistical argument for starting Gomes.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 22, 2013 19:19:54 GMT -5
@jtomase Key to Cards: They hit .330 with RISP, highest in recorded history. It's no BABIP fluke. They simplify approach to CF and RCF w/ runners on. Does anyone know if this is accurate - i.e. not a BABIP fluke? Go by the odds: Have the Cardinals figured something out that no team has ever thought about or is this kind of fluky?
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Post by mainesox on Oct 22, 2013 19:42:14 GMT -5
@jtomase Key to Cards: They hit .330 with RISP, highest in recorded history. It's no BABIP fluke. They simplify approach to CF and RCF w/ runners on. Does anyone know if this is accurate - i.e. not a BABIP fluke? If there weren't any flukiness there, why not use that approach all the time instead of just with RISP? Why wouldn't you want to hit .330 as a team?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2013 19:49:55 GMT -5
@jtomase Key to Cards: They hit .330 with RISP, highest in recorded history. It's no BABIP fluke. They simplify approach to CF and RCF w/ runners on. Does anyone know if this is accurate - i.e. not a BABIP fluke? Go by the odds: Have the Cardinals figured something out that no team has ever thought about or is this kind of fluky? That was my thought - good OBA team but fluky with the BABIP.
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 22, 2013 23:15:24 GMT -5
Let's get it
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 22, 2013 23:26:47 GMT -5
Didn't allen Craig hit around .450 with RISP this year? Some incredible number like that.
By the way, what are the specs for doing an animated gif or whatever that is of Victorino's HR from semperfisox. I love that stuff!
Is there a link to the specs?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2013 5:58:05 GMT -5
Dude, just Google image search for "Shane Victorino HR gif"
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2013 5:59:22 GMT -5
Alex Speier goes on Jonah Keri's podcast and discusses Nava v. Gomes and how to develop team chemistry: espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=9863131I found Speier's endorsement of the Gomes option interesting. I understand his rationale (Gomes' power and sneaky baserunning plays up in a low-run-scoring environment where it's hard to string hits together), but even then, I think it's "gut instinct"-type thinking that runs against the numbers. For instance, Gomes' ISO versus right-handed pitchers was .146 in 2013 while Nava's ISO was .162. Gomes' ISO slightly overtakes Nava's when you look at their three-year splits versus righties, but Nava still has a much higher raw slugging percentage (.459 to .382) and is better offensively to a pretty enormous degree (137 wRC+ to 92). As I've been saying, if the gap between the two was closer, I could understand a combination of better baserunning, more power, and better energy or intangibles making Gomes the better starter. And Gomes could certainly ambush a pitch like he did with Verlander and make me look dumb again. But it's really, really hard to come up with a statistical argument for starting Gomes. At Farrell's press conference yesterday he straight-up said that in the playoffs he's been managing with his gut more based on how guys have been looking/playing than he would during the regular season, when he'd go by the numbers more. Not sure how I feel about that but, hey, it's working.
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Post by godot on Oct 23, 2013 7:39:18 GMT -5
I suspect that when he says he is managing more by gut, he is actually thinking matters out based on what he observes and knows rather than deciding by adding up and comparing numbers. It is not a blind hunch. Indeed, if I may simplify it, hunches" are often the result of complex "thinking" processes at the reflective and and pre-reflective levels where one processes gestalts of information and observations to form a "picture" and conclusions.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 23, 2013 7:47:01 GMT -5
I have examined all the stats and advanced scouting reports, the chatter and Mayor Menino's cryptic use of the English language and have come to a definitive conclusion: if the Sox score one more run in each game than the Cardinals, and replicate this feat four times within the next seven games, they will become 2013 World Series Champions.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2013 7:57:04 GMT -5
So, how will the Cardinals use their pen against us, especially their LHR, Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist?
Let's start with a "one of these things is not like the others" quiz.
39.2 IP, 50 SO, 17 H, 18 BB, 0.45 ERA, 63 FIP-; 388, 479 OPS allowed to LHB, RHB Batters faced in the NLCS with a Leverage Index > .17: one.
Kevin Siegrist was wild but insanely hard to hit in the regular season. He pitched an inning in garbage time in game 2 of the NLDS, giving up an unearned run, and not fanning any of the five guys he faced. In game 3, he was brought into a crucial situation: game tied 3-3, runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out, Pedro Alvarez up. He gave up an RBI GB single (1B hole), then an RBI line drive to left by Russell Martin, and the Cards lost.
He next pitched in Game 2 of the NLCS, top of the 7th, up 1-0, man on 1st, 2 outs, pitcher due up. He got Michael Young to fly to fairly deep RF, but not before wild-pitching the tying run (Nick Punto) to second and then third. At which point Mike Matheny had seen enough, and exiled him to garbage-time LOOGY. He appeared just twice more and faced three batters, getting Young again and allowing a 1B to Crawford in Game 3, and fanning Crawford in game 5.
It was his first strikeout in his last 24 batters, going back to the regular season; he had fanned 50 of the previous 140 (.357). If we assume the 23 straight batters without a K was random, so that his true strikeout rate is his overall 51/164, the odds against not fanning 23 in a row, at random, are 5254 to 1. So it wasn't random. (I'll look at pitch/fx data in a bit, maybe.)
This, ladies and gentlemen, is a complete unknown. We don't know how much confidence Matheny will have in him, and we don't know what kind of results he'll get. If Siegrist recovers his form and ends up as a guy who can pitch the 7th in front of Martinez, that would change things a lot.
Randy Chaote is simpler. At age 36, he's still death on lefties. He pitches around righties, walking them at silly rates but not getting hit too hard. Ortiz is 3/9, 2B, BB against him; Drew 0/4, SO; and Ellsbury 0/1. Salty is 1/2, 2B, and given how much of a pure LOOGY Choate is, I don't think we'll see that matchup.
Having two RHB between Ellsbury and Ortiz, both of whom kill lefties, is going to really help. We're unlikely to see Choate for more than a batter at a time.
It's also worth noting that Matheny does not go out of his way to play matchups when leading after 7. Martinez is the 8th inning guy, unless the first guy in the 8th is a LHB, in which case he'll go to Choate first.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 7:59:00 GMT -5
It was brought up in the other thread so I think its worth noting that Craig has spent time in left field both thus year and last so StL could run an outfield of Craig-holiday-Beltran in games 3-5 if they chose. Now considering reports of his foot injury not allowing him to even take rounders at first this is highly improbably, but it's the WS so you can't count anything out if the Cards get backed against the wall.
As for game 1, Lester needs to set the tone.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 8:05:44 GMT -5
Also, my hope is Farrell is very judicious on running tonight unless it's REALLY necessary. No need to risk setting a bad tone vs Molina. It could set a positive tone as well but getting thrown out in a key spot wouldn't make sense, not that it ever does but even less so tonight. Risk vs Reward. Plus, with the goal to drive up pitch counts so we can see the pen in inning 6 instead of 8 every pitch is key. Don't need to run into outs. Let's foul a few balls off Molina first and let Ross run him over.
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Post by jmei on Oct 23, 2013 8:24:09 GMT -5
an outfield of Craig-holiday-Beltran I pray to god they do. That might literally be the least rangy outfield I've ever seen, and there were a couple games this year where the Red Sox played Carp-Nava-Gomes.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 23, 2013 8:29:24 GMT -5
Doesn't this series come down entirely to how many games Xander starts?
LOL at Holliday in CF.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 8:30:49 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 8:31:48 GMT -5
an outfield of Craig-holiday-Beltran I pray to god they do. That might literally be the least rangy outfield I've ever seen, and there were a couple games this year where the Red Sox played Carp-Nava-Gomes. Agreed but the one where Jay is in there blows too, just less.
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Post by okin15 on Oct 23, 2013 9:54:59 GMT -5
I suspect that when he says he is managing more by gut, he is actually thinking matters out based on what he observes and knows rather than deciding by adding up and comparing numbers. It is not a blind hunch. Indeed, if I may simplify it, hunches" are often the result of complex "thinking" processes at the reflective and and pre-reflective levels where one processes gestalts of information and observations to form a "picture" and conclusions. Wouldn't we normally say that he's going with the hot hand? Only we didn't realize that Gomes was hot and Nava wasn't because they've been platooned so heavily and have played so sporadically these last few weeks? Of course, that begs the question, how does Farrell know? But I'm just assuming he knows from watching BP and seeing Gomes SO amped up.
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