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10/23 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Game 1 Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 23, 2013 13:44:14 GMT -5
Yes, it makes me nervous. I mean, this is the World Series. Did you expect to be playing some doormat team? Price/Moore and Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez made you nervous, too. Maybe you're just the nervous type. The Rays scared me mostly because the prospect of facing moore and price 4 times in a 5 game series really scared me. Losing to them would've been a nightmare for obvious reasons. The Tigers scared me for obvious reasons but I respected their team and manager more and wouldn't have been as depressed if we lost. The Cardinals, same deal as the Tigers but their starters scare me less than Detroit and their bullpen scares me more. Their line up is more solid top to bottom but overall I think the Rays and Tigers were better teams and we should win the one. If not, no shame in losing to the Cards.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 13:55:40 GMT -5
Agreed but the one where Jay is in there blows too, just less. And that's the point. Why would they take out their one outfielder with any range? After the ALCS that the Red Sox just finished, do we really need to discuss that defense is indeed a thing? No one is suggesting that defense isn't a thing. It wasn't even insinuated in this case. It's just worth nothing that Craig plays in the outfield and Beltran has played center as recently as last year. Has already been said it's unlikely, but we're dissecting these teams inside and out and if Matheny ever felt he needed to keep all his best bats in the lineup he may have that option where as Farrell does not. Again it was also stated that it's unlikely Craig can physically play in the outfield, but on the outside chance he can he's done it plenty this season.
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Post by jmei on Oct 23, 2013 13:57:36 GMT -5
Question for the statistically inclined - I read that the scouting reports are that you can beat the Red Sox with power pitching. Yet on the other hand, I've read that the Sox are the best hitting fastball team by a mile. So which exactly is it? Do the Red Sox tee off on 91 MPH fastballs and struggle against 96 MPH fastballs? I guess the question I'm asking is what kind of hitting team are the Sox against 94 MPH fastballs and up? I would anticipate those are the fastballs that Sox would be seeing in this series. Is 94 the demarcation line of a really strong fastball or is it 97 MPH or something like that? I would obviously assume the higher the velocity the tougher the fastball is too hit - not exactly rocket science there, but what are the thresholds on the fastball velocity where the Sox cease to be an effective hitting team? And are the Cardinals the team to exploit it or will it play to the Red Sox' strength? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/faster-fastballs-and-bostons-slugging-sluggers/
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 13:58:40 GMT -5
I think the game three starter decision is a fascinating one. if Clay can go is it possible he can't go game 7? if so, is it wise to pitch him there at all? Can Doubront be trusted after not throwing much lately? Is Peavy really a better option after what we saw last time out? I really don't know how I feel about this one...
Part of me actually wanted them to try Doubront in place of Peavy and have Peavy throw out of the pen to maybe give another good option back there and have the Cardinals face another lefthanded starter who they struggled against unless his name was Kershaw (weird....).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2013 14:11:13 GMT -5
This is a day early, but it may calm some nerves ... I have a good feeling about Wacha. This is not exactly a guy using craft and guile, or keeping guys off-balance (our complaint about all three of the Tiger' big three). Against LHB, he's essentially a two-pitch pitcher (61% FB, 35% change, 4% curve), and he throws the change, to both LHB and RHB, to precisely one spot: low to his arm side. I think he's a guy whose stuff will play a lot less well the second and third time around the lineup to a patient team like ours, and his OPS splits by 25-pitch buckets (573, 603, 795) suggest that's been happening already; his splits by times faced pitcher are 585, 652, 586, but the last number appears to be selection bias created by early hooks. He throws his FB 1 mph faster than Lester, with the same amount of movement (more rise, less run). His changeup doesn't appear to have great movement, less than Wainwright or Lester*. IOW, nothing in his pitch/fx metrics suggest the degree of dominance he's been having. He's got to be wondering to himself if he's really this good ... what happens if we start not chasing his changeups out of the zone, and he starts falling behind in the count? We'll see . . . *Buchholz has even less, though, so clearly deception and command are much more important.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 23, 2013 14:11:34 GMT -5
If Clay can't go for game 7 I think you could see Doubront with the worlds shortest leash, Lester on short rest for a couple innings with an "all hands on deck" approach beyond that. I could see a situation where Clay pitches 3 or 4 , but can't come back for seven. I think having Doubront is a luxury that a lot of teams don't often have. You have a pretty decent starter who won't be starting and he has the platoon advantage in a pretty big way over the competition.
One of my bigger worries for the offense isn't whether or not they'll hit Wainright and WAKAH(si.) but how they'll hit in some very cold weather. It's suppose to be in the low 40's for the next two games. I know both teams need to play in the same conditions , but I think Wainright will gain an advantage.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 23, 2013 14:17:31 GMT -5
We had freakin Tim Wakefield starting game one in 2004. Derek Lowe had a terrible regular season in 04 as well.
Doubront, Peavy and Buch all had better seasons that either of those guys did looking back on it.
We should be OK. Our guys have won against Price, Moore, Verlander, Sanchez and Scherzer.
Kelly and Lynn would arguably be two of the weakest starters boston faced all post season. (Does hell boy count?)
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 14:19:53 GMT -5
Jeremy Helickson's leash is going to be tough to beat.... let's hope none of our guys are even competing for that..
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2013 14:32:22 GMT -5
We had freakin Tim Wakefield starting game one in 2004. Derek Lowe had a terrible regular season in 04 as well. Lowe had an insanely bipolar, streaky season in 2004: stretches of Real Derek Lowe alternating with pure awfulness. There were reports that he was doing a lot of, shall we say, late-night enjoyable things, and I wondered, at the time, whether the good stretches were his self-control bouts and the bad stretches his binges. In any case, between games 2 and 3 of the ALCS I was the designated Sox fan / expert in a dialogue at ESPN, with a nice guy, Phil IForget, from nyyfans.com. I put forth the Bipolar Derek Lowe theory and argued that the Good Lowe was a better pitcher than Mike Mussina, and that there was a good chance he'd be the version who showed up in the post-season. For this I was widely mocked by just about everyone. And of course I was right.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 23, 2013 14:47:29 GMT -5
WS Game 1 lineup: Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Bogaerts 3B, Drew SS, Ross C, Lester starts
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2013 15:06:31 GMT -5
WS Game 1 lineup: Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Bogaerts 3B, Drew SS, Ross C, Lester starts Where Bogaerts and Drew would hit was really the only thing up in the air. Good to see that. Nothing wrong with putting just one RHB between Drew and Ellsbury; if they bring in Choate or Segrist to pitch to all three guys, they can pinch-hit Middlebrooks. BTW, and I had to Google this because ESPN doesn't have the story ... but as I expected, it was Chambers who got dropped off the roster to make room for Craig.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 15:15:00 GMT -5
I'm glad Bogaerts got moved up to seventh. I was hoping he'd hit 6th, but 7th is better then where he was. I just hope when Salty is in the lineup they don't put Salty ahead of him.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 23, 2013 15:19:50 GMT -5
All this scuttlebutt about if Buchholz goes game 3 he may not be fresh enough to go in a possible game 7. hell, if this gets to game 7 of the World Freaking Series your rotation is Lester until he looks like he's going to spit the bit then a combination of Buccholz/Doubront/Peavy/Workman/Tazawa/Breslow/Koji to get you through the other 6, 5 or 4 innings with the first 6 of those guys on the shortest of leashes.
I mean really.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 23, 2013 15:23:45 GMT -5
WS Game 1 lineup: Ellsbury CF, Victorino RF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Napoli 1B, Gomes LF, Bogaerts 3B, Drew SS, Ross C, Lester starts Nava would fit into that line up pretty mucn perfectly.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 23, 2013 15:31:55 GMT -5
All this scuttlebutt about if Buchholz goes game 3 he may not be fresh enough to go in a possible game 7. hell, if this gets to game 7 of the World Freaking Series your rotation is Lester until he looks like he's going to spit the bit then a combination of Buccholz/Doubront/Peavy/Workman/Tazawa/Breslow/Koji to get you through the other 6, 5 or 4 innings with the first 6 of those guys on the shortest of leashes. I mean really. No chance Low chance Lester starts game 5 on the 28th then game 7 on the 31st.... he'd certainly be available to pitch an inning or two though. just realized game 7 was on Halloween.... not sure why or if that's interesting, but it will get some play if it happens.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2013 15:37:29 GMT -5
Fangraohs is as baffled about Gomes and Nava as we are. And that's it for me until gametime ... I'm going to bed (a good 3 hours after bedtime) and have set the alarm for 7:45 PM. (And, no, I don't live halfway around the planet, although my brain appears to be convinced of that.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2013 15:49:40 GMT -5
Yes, it makes me nervous. I mean, this is the World Series. Did you expect to be playing some doormat team? Price/Moore and Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez made you nervous, too. Maybe you're just the nervous type. Yes, I'm the nervous type - can't you tell? No I didn't expect a doormat, but consider that the Pirates almost pulled off the upset of the Cards and had the Dodgers won that's one helluva decimated lineup. The Cards are definitely the best team. I would have favored the Sox had LA or Pittsburgh got in. It just makes me long for the 2007 Rockies (well Holliday is around) when they started Jeff Francis, Josh Fogg, and Aaron Cook in the World Series. Francis was OK at his best, but certainly not somebody to worry about. Ubaldo was young so you didn't know what to expect buy he wasn't Michael Wacha either. Josh Fogg was a batting practice pitcher and Aaron Cook who eventually became a batting practice pitcher hadn't pitched in months at that time. Sometimes you get fluke teams in the Series. Sometimes you truly get a great team in the Series. If the Sox pull this off, they truly have done something extremely remarkable. The Cardinals are definitely the class of the NL, have been for some time and will be for quite awhile. Go Sox!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2013 15:50:20 GMT -5
Question for the statistically inclined - I read that the scouting reports are that you can beat the Red Sox with power pitching. Yet on the other hand, I've read that the Sox are the best hitting fastball team by a mile. So which exactly is it? Do the Red Sox tee off on 91 MPH fastballs and struggle against 96 MPH fastballs? I guess the question I'm asking is what kind of hitting team are the Sox against 94 MPH fastballs and up? I would anticipate those are the fastballs that Sox would be seeing in this series. Is 94 the demarcation line of a really strong fastball or is it 97 MPH or something like that? I would obviously assume the higher the velocity the tougher the fastball is too hit - not exactly rocket science there, but what are the thresholds on the fastball velocity where the Sox cease to be an effective hitting team? And are the Cardinals the team to exploit it or will it play to the Red Sox' strength? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/faster-fastballs-and-bostons-slugging-sluggers/Thanks.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 23, 2013 19:09:05 GMT -5
Let's see how the weather affects Wainright's curve ball. I heard one while driving home that he throws it about 45% of the time. I
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Post by jmei on Oct 23, 2013 19:17:37 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 23, 2013 19:19:54 GMT -5
Perhaps, if the pitcher can maintain a good grip on the ball.
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Post by jdb on Oct 23, 2013 19:22:42 GMT -5
Good first AB from Ells.
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Post by jmei on Oct 23, 2013 19:23:20 GMT -5
Despite posting the third best walk rate in the league, Adam Wainwright actually threw a below-average percentage of his pitches in the strike zone. He just does a phenomenal job of using his curveball-- both in terms of getting hitters to chase it out of the zone but also dropping it in the zone for a called strike. If the Red Sox can actually lay off the pitches outside the zone, they may be able to get a few more walks out of Wainwright.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 23, 2013 19:24:35 GMT -5
Hit and run here?
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Post by bball798 on Oct 23, 2013 19:25:31 GMT -5
Ells should go at some point here.
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