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10/26 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Game 3 Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Oct 26, 2013 8:29:10 GMT -5
10/26 Red Sox (RHP Jake Peavy 0-1 8.31) vs. Cardinals (RHP Joe Kelly 0-1 4.41) 8:07 pm ET, FOX/WEEI World Series Game 3Season SeriesDid not meet How they got here?Red Sox 97-65 AL East Champions, Beat Tampa Bay 3-1 in ALDS, Beat Detroit 4-2 in ALCS Cardinals 97-65 NL Central Champions, Beat Pittsburgh 3-2 in NLDS, Beat Los Angeles 4-2 in NLCS Playoff History2004 World Series - Boston won 4-0 1967 World Series - St. Louis won 4-3 1946 World Series - St. Louis won 4-3 MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2013 9:49:04 GMT -5
I really hope Farrell is smart enough to swap Pedroia and Ortiz in the lineup, thus putting Pedey between Ortiz and Nava.
It's very likely that Choate comes in to face Ortiz the third time around the order. With Ortiz hitting 4th, the next matchup is either Choate versus Nava or Maness versus Gomes, and if you do the former, you run the risk of Choate vs. Saltalamacchia as well. (Choate doesn't have bad numbers vs. RHB because he's so willing to walk them, and I bet his numbers against guys who struggle against LHP, like Nava and Salty do, are solid.)
If Ortiz hits 3rd and Pedroia 4th, you force Matheny to bring in Maness to face Pedroia, and then you have Maness versus Nava, which is a big upgrade on the above.
Finally, Ortiz before Pedroia makes sense. The ability to knock in your teammates is actually about 75% BA and 25% SA, and Pedroia's value vs. RHP is almost all BA. So Ortiz, with his sky-high OBP versus RHP, is actually a hugely better table-setter than Pedroia, where the gap as a teammate-RBI guy between them is quite a bit smaller.
Oh, and he has to bat Drew 8th and Bogaerts 7th, right? Let's see if Matheny is dumb enough to IBB Drew with 2 outs, men on, and 1B open, so that Ellsbury can lead off the next inning rather than Peavy.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 26, 2013 10:55:00 GMT -5
I really hope Farrell is smart enough Dear God, never change SoxProspects.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 26, 2013 11:38:52 GMT -5
If Choate comes in to face Ortiz, they can pinch hit Napoli for Nava easily enough. I'm not sure lineup stability is all that important, but it's obviously something that Farrell values so I can't get worked up over it. The Ellsbury/Victorino/Pedroia/Ortiz top four got them this far and the players are obviously comfortable with it. I do wish they had put Bradley onto the World Series roster, since pinch-hitting for Nava against a lefy is a good idea but I hate the idea of putting Gomes in left with a lead, especially in Busch, but that's water under the bridge at this point.
Agree 100% on putting Drew in front of the pitcher, especially since Peavy isn't an automatic out.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 26, 2013 12:14:52 GMT -5
My proposed lineup
Ellsbury Bogaerts Pedrioia Ortiz Nava Victorino Middlebrooks Ross Peavy
Lately both Gomes and Saltimacchia have been liabilities both on offense and defense. With the lack of a DH, the Red Sox can't afford to have two automatic outs in Drew and the pitching slot. You can always either pitch hit or run for Middlebrooks and move Bogaerts to 3rd and put in Drew for defense at SS in the late innings. Bogaerts also has been seeing a lot of pitches and he can get the bunt down to move runners over.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2013 12:44:16 GMT -5
If Choate comes in to face Ortiz, they can pinch hit Napoli for Nava easily enough. Of course I completely forgot about Napoli being available to pinch-hit, but you'd just as soon have Nava versus Maness as Napoli, and save Napoli to hit for the pitcher (and possibly take over defensively for Ortiz). I agree with you about lineup stability, and wouldn't want him to make a move that would make the players uncomfortable. I know Papi likes to hit 3rd. You'd have to ask Pedroia about it, obviously. You could easily sell it to him as protecting Ortiz. Hmm... Maness had a neutral split, and a reverse one last year in AA. Axford, the other guy you might see at that point in the game, has a career reverse split but a pretty big normal one this year.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 26, 2013 12:55:15 GMT -5
I sincerely hope Drew is in one of the batting cages under the stadium taking about an hour of bunting practice off one of the machines and it's set at 95. That he whiffed a bunt on a strike right down the middle after Salty's walk was just deplorable. And really, at this point Drew's best chance for a base hit might be to catch Fat Adams sleeping on him and dragging one down the first base line - esp if Adams is playing back near the right field grass.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 26, 2013 12:57:37 GMT -5
If Choate comes in to face Ortiz, they can pinch hit Napoli for Nava easily enough. Of course I completely forgot about Napoli being available to pinch-hit, but you'd just as soon have Nava versus Maness as Napoli, and save Napoli to hit for the pitcher (and possibly take over defensively for Ortiz). I agree with you about lineup stability, and wouldn't want him to make a move that would make the players uncomfortable. I know Papi likes to hit 3rd. You'd have to ask Pedroia about it, obviously. You could easily sell it to him as protecting Ortiz. Hmm... Maness had a neutral split, and a reverse one last year in AA. Axford, the other guy you might see at that point in the game, has a career reverse split but a pretty big normal one this year. Kelly appears to have a reverse split for this year, as well.
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 26, 2013 13:00:27 GMT -5
bottom of the lineup has to contribute if we're going to win this series.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 26, 2013 13:18:47 GMT -5
I really hope Farrell is smart enough to swap Pedroia and Ortiz in the lineup, thus putting Pedey between Ortiz and Nava. ... Another smart thing would be that when you feel like starting a post with "I really hope Farrell is smart enough to...", you type a draft of it, save it, and come back later to see if there are six or seven things you've forgotten to think about that make the post look ridiculous.
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Post by tizzle on Oct 26, 2013 14:14:50 GMT -5
I sincerely hope Drew is in one of the batting cages under the stadium taking about an hour of bunting practice off one of the machines and it's set at 95. That he whiffed a bunt on a strike right down the middle after Salty's walk was just deplorable. And really, at this point Drew's best chance for a base hit might be to catch Fat Adams sleeping on him and dragging one down the first base line - esp if Adams is playing back near the right field grass. He didn't ever offer at that pitch and never showed bunt again. I was wondering if he was just taking pitches and was bluffing with the bunt. Not sure, but that's kind of how it looked. But he definitely should have been bunting there. I just don't know if my beef was with the manager's decision or if Drew is really that bad at bunting.
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 26, 2013 15:09:16 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury CF Shane Victorino RF Dustin Pedroia 2B David Ortiz 1B Daniel Nava LF Xander Bogaerts 3B Jarrod Saltalamacchia C Stephen Drew SS Jake Peavy RHP
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Post by jmei on Oct 26, 2013 15:28:59 GMT -5
As close to an ideal lineup as we can reasonably expect Farrell to put out there.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 26, 2013 15:50:31 GMT -5
As close to an ideal lineup as we can reasonably expect Farrell to put out there. Really wish he'd drop Shanf down. He's not really hitting and he's not a guy who really belongs in the top third of this lineup anyway. But yeah, it's not a bad lineup. Hopefully this Gomes nonsense is over for good.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2013 15:54:07 GMT -5
I really hope Farrell is smart enough to swap Pedroia and Ortiz in the lineup, thus putting Pedey between Ortiz and Nava. ... Another smart thing would be that when you feel like starting a post with "I really hope Farrell is smart enough to...", you type a draft of it, save it, and come back later to see if there are six or seven things you've forgotten to think about that make the post look ridiculous. Well, actually, I forgot one thing*, which turned out be moot, and it's still a better batting order than the one they're using (provided Pedroia is OK with it, and it would surprise me if he'd have a problem protecting Ortiz and creating a better R/L sequence). For one thing, they now have two pairs of virtual lefties (Ortiz / Nava, Saltalamacchia / Drew) instead of one. If we get behind a few runs, that makes the bottom of the order more susceptible to Siegrist. *Looking at Maness and Axford's splits was looking to see how big the mistake might be; it doesn't change the point at all. And I know a lot of people like to propose batting orders, with their expertise being necessarily untested. I can actually point to batting orders the Red Sox used at my suggestion, and one they used despite my objections (Nixon hitting 2nd at the start of 2005, then being dropped to 5th); my track record with the former is pretty good, and in the one comparison I came out ahead. (And I could finish with some snark, but I don't feel a need to belittle you.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2013 16:01:03 GMT -5
As close to an ideal lineup as we can reasonably expect Farrell to put out there. Really wish he'd drop Shane down. He's not really hitting and he's not a guy who really belongs in the top third of this lineup anyway. But yeah, it's not a bad lineup. Hopefully this Gomes nonsense is over for good. He is one of the four best hitters on the team vs. RHP. And it's an 8-game skid. Not only shouldn't you drop a guy down because of a short-term struggle, there's no obvious replacement; if you go Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, who hits cleanup?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2013 16:06:44 GMT -5
Hmm... Maness had a neutral split, and a reverse one last year in AA. Axford, the other guy you might see at that point in the game, has a career reverse split but a pretty big normal one this year. Kelly appears to have a reverse split for this year, as well. 691 vs. 696 is not reverse (except technically), it's neutral. But he had an immense split last year. If it weren't more than two flipping hours past my bedtime, I'd look at pitch/fx to see if there was an adjustment he made this year against lefties. Instead, I'll just hope they clobber him tonight.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 26, 2013 16:23:25 GMT -5
Really wish he'd drop Shane down. He's not really hitting and he's not a guy who really belongs in the top third of this lineup anyway. But yeah, it's not a bad lineup. Hopefully this Gomes nonsense is over for good. He is one of the four best hitters on the team vs. RHP. And it's an 8-game skid. Not only shouldn't you drop a guy down because of a short-term struggle, there's no obvious replacement; if you go Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, who hits cleanup? Based on what?
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 26, 2013 17:17:35 GMT -5
Still wish Ross would play over Salty, but I'm fine with the lineup overall.
Have I ever mentioned how stupid National League rules are?
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Post by semperfisox on Oct 26, 2013 17:26:14 GMT -5
Drew needs to be like his brother and have an iconic moment in the playoffs for us.
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 26, 2013 17:29:58 GMT -5
Napoli taking grounders at 3b a few moments ago, per 7 news.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 26, 2013 17:32:42 GMT -5
Drew needs to be like his brother and have an iconic moment in the playoffs for us. In fairness, he's made more than a few iconic defensive plays. But with the pitcher in there for the next three games, it would be helpful for Drew not to be a black hole at the plate.
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Post by tizzle on Oct 26, 2013 17:33:58 GMT -5
If Choate comes in to face Ortiz, they can pinch hit Napoli for Nava easily enough. I would think you'd PH Gomes for Nava, so as to not use up another player. There will be other opportunities to use Napoli.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 26, 2013 17:43:02 GMT -5
Eric, try to ignore the snark. You are a valued poster. I'm sure a lot of us appreciate the work you put in and yes, the insight. Try to do anything, even when you are right, and you will get arrows stuck in your back anyway. As you well know I'm sure, it's part of forum life.
Even in the playoffs, when we all should have a lot more positive spirit going around! Ok! Let's win this thing!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 26, 2013 17:47:56 GMT -5
Napoli taking grounders at 3b a few moments ago, per 7 news. It seems that Xander's stock keeps rising, slowly but steadily. All Nava has to do is to get on base one time and not screw up otherwise to top Gomes's performance so far. Let's hope he's the star of the game with 4 hits. Pinch hit from Drew, if Middlebrooks has already been used? Slide Xander over to SS hopefully. That is interesting no matter how it turns out. Doubleswitch opportunities?
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