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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 14:58:52 GMT -5
Why do we want a 40 year old IF who was terrible last year? Why not just take back the 39 year old IF who was terrible last year but played for you? If they don't want McDonald back then I don't see why they'd want Carroll.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2013 15:00:49 GMT -5
Because Carroll was good for the 11 years before that, and $2 million is chump change to find out if that was a fluke.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 15:10:29 GMT -5
I guess... how many 40 year olds bounce back though? There's got to be some slick fielding minor leaguer out there that will cost the minimum to give you what you possibly hope Carroll or McDonald can get you unless you value veteran savy or leadership. I mean his value has pretty much always been tied to his defense, right? Outside of a couple years he was slightly above average (with the 2 highest BABIP of his career).
I'm not sure 2M is chump change in this instance where we're talking about ways to shave some salary to add other players. That 2M could be the difference between acquiring a high level player half way through the year and not and for what possible best case scenario... I really don't want them burning even 2M on a strong DFA candidate on a zero upside play.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2013 15:27:14 GMT -5
I don't want them burning $2 million on a zero-upside guy either. Fortunately Carroll isn't that - his upside is a middle infielder who is a pretty reasonable bet to put up a .340 OBP with good defense. The difference between his upside and that of John McDonald is worth spending the $1.5 million.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 15:31:52 GMT -5
I guess... how many 40 year olds bounce back though? There's got to be some slick fielding minor leaguer out there that will cost the minimum to give you what you possibly hope Carroll or McDonald can get you unless you value veteran savy or leadership. I mean his value has pretty much always been tied to his defense, right? Outside of a couple years he was slightly above average (with the 2 highest BABIP of his career). I'm not sure 2M is chump change in this instance where we're talking about ways to shave some salary to add other players. That 2M could be the difference between acquiring a high level player half way through the year and not and for what possible best case scenario... I really don't want them burning even 2M on a strong DFA candidate on a zero upside play. Slightly above average for $2m is pretty great for a utility infielder who fields all the infield positions well enough and can play outfield in a pinch. Jamey Carroll has posted a 85+ wRC+ in five of the last six seasons. John McDonald has posted a 85+ wRC+ once in his 15-year career. If you think you can come up with better options, please do give us your list. There aren't many players who can play an average defensive shortstop and give you non-terrible offense. It's either the defense-first guys who can't hit (MiLB options include Juan Diaz and Shawn O'Malley; guys with major league experience include Robert Andino and Alexi Casilla) or the guys who can hit a little bit but can't really play shortstop (Yamaico Navarro, Willie Bloomquist, etc). $2m, by the way, is basically chump change. The Red Sox have close to $30m to spend this offseason, and if they need more salary space, they can easily move Dempster and get much more than $2m in salary relief in return. Having a good backup infielder is important, and a team carrying a $160m+ payroll and which emphasizes depth should not have to go with a far inferior option just to save $1.5m. EDIT: I think you're making a mistake a lot of people make, which is that once they think a guy is a bad hitter, they lump him together with all the other bad hitters. In reality, there's a huge range of bad hitters. Jamey Carroll's Steamer-projected .262/.327/.326 (83 wRC+) is better than Alexi Casilla's .239/.297/.330 (73 wRC+), for example, and both are better than John McDonald's .237/.285/.346 (68 wRC+). I'm willing to pay a $1.5m premium to upgrade from a utility infielder who is a terrible hitter to one who is not that far off from the league-average line for shortstops (85 wRC+ in 2013).
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 16:05:52 GMT -5
No I just think it's a mistake to project a 40 year old who showed steep decline the year before to bounce back. I'm fine if they can sign him for the veteran minimum, but I don't see why I'd take 2M. I agree depth is important and I'd rather go the minimum route if the alternative is Carrol at 40 coming of the age 39 season he just did. If you can easily clear salary, you can easily add a player of the caliber Carroll's best case scenario is during the year without a drastic cost. The thing is, if he's playing a big role, you're going to need to upgrade the position regardless. I'm fine with Holt, if there isn't a better option - giving up the D. Give him a chance.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 20, 2013 16:14:29 GMT -5
Trade Dempster (mostly a salary Dump), prospect/backup/FP back Shop Lester, Lackey, Peavy, and Doubrount. Don't think anyone would meet the needed price for Lester, Lackey, or Doubrount. So I'll go with trade Peavy for Prospect Sign Tanaka (70+ M bid, 5 years between 10-14M per) Sign Salty 2-3 years ?9M per? Sign Napoli 3 years (2 if possible) 13-15M per Target Crain or/and Mujica. Maybe Wilson as a backup plan. Don't know enough about this market, but I think we need some AAA depth in OF, and a utility INF if holt can't handle it.
Stretch out Workman, RDL, Webster, Morales. Non tender Bailey but try to resign. Workman and Morales to MLB bullpen, RDL + Webster to AAA rotation. A lot of my decision as to where RDL will end up will be his performance to start the year.
1. Lester 2. Buchholz 3. Lackey 4. Tanaka 5. Doubrount
6. C: Salty 7. 1B: Napoli 8. 2B: Pedroia 9. 3B: Middlebrooks 10. SS: Bogaerts 11. LF: Nava 12. CF: Bradley 13. RF: Victorino 14. DH: Ortiz
15. CL: Uehara 16. SU: Crain (Mujica, Wilson) 17. SU: Tazawa 18. LRP: Breslow 19. LRP: Miller 20. LRP: Britton 21. RHP: Workman
22. C: Ross 23. OF: Gomes 24. OF/1B: Carp 25. UT: Holt/signing/trade
Gomes and Nava should be limited to ~ 100 AB in their weaker matchup, (Nava against Righties, Gomes against Lefty). I bet Nava's line against righties combined with Gomes line against lefties is better than Beltran's overall line, at 1/4 the cost.
Webster is my lead to get the first spot start, with Workman in a close 2nd.
This team should fit the payroll assuming 80% of Dempster + Peavy's combined salary is picked up, which I think is reasonable. Shouldn't have a big return talent wise.
I think Napoli is Sox biggest target this year (again), but I would be most happy if we got Tanaka.
Stay away list: Beltran, McCann, Ellsbury, Shoo (for his price)
Interesting options in order: Hart, Hanigan, Drew, Cruz, Loney
Theoretically interesting options that will never happen: Kuroda, Youkillis, Cano
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 16:32:36 GMT -5
No I just think it's a mistake to project a 40 year old who showed steep decline the year before to bounce back. I'm fine if they can sign him for the veteran minimum, but I don't see why I'd take 2M. I agree depth is important and I'd rather go the minimum route if the alternative is Carrol at 40 coming of the age 39 season he just did. If you can easily clear salary, you can easily add a player of the caliber Carroll's best case scenario is during the year without a drastic cost. The thing is, if he's playing a big role, you're going to need to upgrade the position regardless. I'm fine with Holt, if there isn't a better option - giving up the D. Give him a chance. Carroll's decline was almost entirely due to a much lower-than average BABIP (.253 compared to .318 career). His BABIP was very low despite very good line-drive rates (24.7% compared to 21.2% league-average) and ground-ball rates (56.3%) that should produce many more hits than he actually got. He struck out a little more, but his in-zone contact, out-of-zone contact, and swinging strike rates were all around his career-averages. Looking at his statistical profile, his decline basically looks entirely like bad luck on balls in play and not age-related erosion in his true skill. It's possible he just stopped hitting the ball hard, but he's really never hit the ball hard and has made a career off singles and walks. His defense still looks solid enough, and if his BABIP bounces back, he's a roughly 1.5 WAR/600 PA player at shortstop-- certainly good enough for a couple months and probably better than anything you can find on the cash/PTBNL mid-season trade market. If Brock Holt was a better defender, I'd be OK with him being the utility infielder (he's a very similar type of hitter, with maybe a few more strikeouts), but his arm and range are both pretty fringy for shortstop and third base.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 17:40:00 GMT -5
It's a valid viewpoint, I just don't like it at that dollar for the role he's expected to play. Another nitpick, but this is where we are at during this point talking about this spot on the roster.
Let's just say Xander or the Third baseman gives down. Carroll is the backup and forced into Iglesias type action. Don't you think BC is out trying to bringing an upgrade? If you don't,I see paying him the money. If you do, then I'd roll the dice on a cheaper option. I truly only feel somewhat strongly about this because they seem hell bent on staying under the tax line. Any other year it'd be a non conversation.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 17:50:57 GMT -5
Let's just say Xander or the Third baseman gives down. Carroll is the backup and forced into Iglesias type action. Don't you think BC is out trying to bringing an upgrade? If you don't,I see paying him the money. If you do, then I'd roll the dice on a cheaper option. Well, if there's a player who is better than Carroll and will come relatively cheap, Ben Cherington should just acquire him now and make him the utility infielder going into the season, right? Because trying to do so mid-season after one of your guys is injured and everyone knows you're desperate means you're forced to overpay because the other team has all the leverage. Plus, I still think you're underrating Carroll. He's a slightly below-average shortstop (albeit an old one who might present injury risks). There aren't more than a couple dozen guys in all of baseball who are clearly better than him, and none of them is going to cost anywhere close to one year and $2m.
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Post by mainesox on Nov 20, 2013 17:56:39 GMT -5
INF Jamey Carroll to a one year, $2m contract YES. Personally, I really like the idea of signing Hairston to fill the utility role; he can play every position on the diamond other than catcher, and is average or better at all of them, and before this year he had been a respectable hitter too.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 18:10:12 GMT -5
I have no issue with BC trading for a guy now, may make most sense. I wouldn't over-pay though.
I don't think I'm under-rating him. If I had any confidence he'd provide what you or steamer were projecting I'd be on board. His D was down across the board where innings were enough to matter. He also only played 17 innings at short last yr. way down to previous years and it's not like the Twins had a great short stop. Did he play less there because he was having bad luck at the plate so his PT was down? Did the Twins just want the kid to play? Or has he lost a step? We'll find out in a few months I suppose.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 18:27:24 GMT -5
What are your thoughts on Willie Bloomquist?
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 18:43:46 GMT -5
What are your thoughts on Willie Bloomquist? Pretty mediocre hitter, has played a bunch of defensive positions but is not really good at any of them. An acceptable utility infielder for the league-minimum, but there are a bunch of names I'd rather have (Carroll, Alexi Casilla, Clint Barmes, Munenori Kawasaki, etc).
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 18:58:42 GMT -5
Considering it's an unattractive market, the best move is to probably just to wait it out an pick up whoever can be had for the vet minimum.
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Post by djsilva on Nov 20, 2013 19:27:58 GMT -5
Sign: CF - Ellsbury - 5 yr 110 million RP - Mujica - 2 yr 12million with mutual option (5 mil)
Bid: SP - Tanaka
Trade: Dempster for mid level prospect or utility infielder And/or Peavy if Tanaka is signed
Starting lineup: 1. Ellsbury (CF) (L) 2. Pedroia (2B) 3. Ortiz (DH) (L) 4. Middlebrooks (3B) 5. Victorino (RF) (S) 6. Boegarts (SS) 7. Nava (1B) (S) 8. Lavarnway (C) 9. Bradley (LF) (L)
Bench: OF: Gomes C: Ross 1B: Carp (L) INF: Holt (L) or utility from Dempster trade
Rotation: Lester (L) Buccholz Lackey Doubront (L) Tanaka/Peavy
Bullpen: Uehara Mujica Tazawa Miller (L) Breslow (L) Villareal/Bailey/Morales or Workman/Britton/Webster/Ruby (I'm fine putting them in Pawsox rotation and bringing them up as needed)
Multiple lie things going on here... Let's talk catching: Yes, let's see what Lavarnway can do behind the dish. We have Ross backing him up. Give him half the year and see what happens. By then if he isn't doing well, slide Vazquez in there, if he can't handle it after 2 months or so, ,Swihart might be ready for the show. If through July, Lavarnway sucks, and the kids aren't ready, then mid season trade. There are options without signing Mcann for a long term deal, draft pick, and a ton of $. Salty would have been ideal on a 1 yr QO.
Outfield: try to tell me you wouldn't love to see an all gold glove outfield of Bradley, Ellsbury & Victorino. Ells is the one free agent to sign. He's shown he can play here, we also need a lead off hitter and some speed is always nice. I have no problem with 5 years (100-115 mil), even throw in a 6th year mutual option and I'm ok with it. He will be 35. It's not a long term contract that will "restrict" us like the Crawford deal... Think about how much $ coming off the books after 2014. Gomes off the bench and if someone goes down, I want to see what Brentz can do in right or left. Great depth if anyone goes down to.
First Base: I have no problem with seeing what Nava and Carp can do there over the course of a season. One of them will be good over there, I promise you. If not, well then see below for 3rd base...
Third Base: Middlebrooks sophomore slump is over, ask Bill James (lol) if he can hit 28-35 HR, I'm all for it. Again, we have the depth to gamble on it. Cecchini can fill in by mid season or Sept. And even push Middlebrooks to First if the Nava/Carp scenario doesn't work.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 19:34:35 GMT -5
I'm all for Jacoby at those numbers and I'm sure Boston is too. He's a key or his market is. Very interested how it shakes out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2013 20:54:55 GMT -5
Outfield: try to tell me you wouldn't love to see an all gold glove outfield of Bradley, Ellsbury & Victorino. Ells is the one free agent to sign. He's shown he can play here, we also need a lead off hitter and some speed is always nice. I have no problem with 5 years (100-115 mil), even throw in a 6th year mutual option and I'm ok with it. He will be 35. It's not a long term contract that will "restrict" us like the Crawford deal... Think about how much $ coming off the books after 2014. Gomes off the bench and if someone goes down, I want to see what Brentz can do in right or left. Great depth if anyone goes down to. First Base:I have no problem with seeing what Nava and Carp can do there over the course of a season. One of them will be good over there, I promise you. I've always been very comfortable with the scenario where Bradley, Nava, and Carp share LF and 1B vs RHP, with performance determining PT. I'm in favor of re-signing Napoli at the right price (2/$19 or 2/$20 with a vesting option based on PA) even if they re-sign Ellsbury, but if they only sign Ellsbury, you don't need a Napoli Plan B or C like Beltran or Corey Hart; Bradley takes Napoli's roster spot. That trio (or quartet including Gomes) sharing the two positions gives you a lot of platoon flexibility.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 21:51:49 GMT -5
I'm in favor of re-signing Napoli at the right price (2/$19 or 2/$20 with a vesting option based on PA) Honest question: do you think that is the best offer Napoli will get in free agency? If not, do you think he eschews higher offers to re-sign in Boston at that price? What do you think his other offers will look like? I think Napoli may be willing to take a hometown discount, but I think he'll easily get offers with $30m+ in guaranteed money. He obviously likes Boston, but not enough to turn down $10m+ in guaranteed money.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 22:09:07 GMT -5
Boston would easily go 2/26 or 2/28 don't you think?
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Post by mainesox on Nov 20, 2013 22:31:48 GMT -5
Boston would easily go 2/26 or 2/28 don't you think? I hope not. Napoli scares me to be perfectly honest, and considering the draft pick, and the other viable options, I think we might be best to just move on at this point.
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Post by bentossaurus on Nov 21, 2013 0:29:02 GMT -5
nheck v1.0 (as of 2013/11/21)
First of all let's assess the situation here. There are holes at C, 1B, OF and 3B/SS. Pitching wise we can afford to deal a SP, but one RHRP or two would complement the bullpen better. Budget for all this is 32M.
1) C and 1B - Trade Dempster, Carp, Ranaudo, Vazquez and Brentz to the Milwaukee Brewers for A. Ramirez and Lucroy.
This presents an interesting situation to me, both teams would like to preferably save dollars but they value them in different ways. The Red Sox value more "cap" dollars while the Brewers prefer to save the actual money. Ramirez (12M AAV) and Lucroy (2.1M AAV) would solve in one move two of the holes in the lineup. The Brewers have been on the hunt for a LH 1B and SP, here they get exactly those 2 pieces while saving around 3.5M on their payroll. The Red Sox have now filled two positions while essentially maintaining their 32M cap budget intact (even if they increased the actual payroll).
Other options for these positions are: 1B (Smoak, Sandoval); C (Hanigan, Butler/Lavarnway).
2) 3B/SS - I'll be boring as hell and go with the Bogaerts and Middlebrooks combo. I am torn on who the backup is though, while I think Carroll is worth the extra-money I prefer my utility infielders to be defense first guys. In the end the prospect of one (or Odin forbid two) of the young guys struggling make me go with the presumably better player in Carrol. Assuming he comes for 2M/1, this leaves the Red Sox with 30M room to spend
Other options: INF (McDonald, De Jesus).
3) OF - Boring as to who the starting CF is as well, Bradley Jr. all the way. I'd sign Young on a 16M/2 deal to backup the OF but keep a very close eye on Gutierrez. Try to have him workout privately for you to see how he's holding up. This completes the lineup with still 22M on the budget.
4) On to the pitching, the rotation is pretty much self evident, I'd move Workman to the bullpen and sign the best RH reliever I could find that doesn't mind a 1 year deal, be it Crain, Mujica, Wilson or Veras. Let's say this costs you 6M, you still have 16M until you reach your budget ceiling.
Final 25 man:
Lineup (vs. RHP)
C - Lucroy 1B - A. Ramirez 2B - Pedroia 3B - Middlebrooks SS - Bogaerts LF - Nava CF - Bradley Jr. RF - Victorino DH - Ortiz
Bench
C - Ross 1B/LF - Gomes CF - Young INF - Carroll
Rotation
LHP - Lester RHP - Lackey RHP - Buchholz RHP - Peavy LHP - Doubront
Bullpen
RHP - Uehara RHP - Tazawa LHP - Breslow RHP - Workman LHP - Miller RHP - Mujica LHP - Britton
Before someone asks what you do with the 16M you didn't spend, I'm someone who thinks that just because you were given a budget that doesn't mean you have max it right out of the gate. You keep those millions for instance to be able to trade during the season, to extend Lester, to offer a long-term deal to Bogaerts in case he puts Mike Trout to shame, etc...
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Post by bcolt18 on Nov 21, 2013 0:49:17 GMT -5
1. Trade Doubront, Ranaudo, WMB, Vazquez, and one of Buttrey/Callahan/McGrath for Giancarlo Stanton 2. Trade Jake Peavy for prospects 3. Sign Mike Napoli 3 years/30 million 4. Sign Eric Chavez 1 year/ 7 million 5. Sign Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2 years/ 20 million 6. Sign Roy Halladay 1 year/ 5 million 7. Trade Mike Carp for prospects
RF- Shane Victorino 2B- Dustin Pedroia DH- David Ortiz LF- Giancarlo Stanton 1B- Mike Napoli SS- Xander Bogaerts C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia 3B- Eric Chavez CF- Jackie Bradley Jr.
1. Jon Lester 2. Clay Buchholz 3. John Lackey 4. Ryan Dempster 5. Allen Webster/Rubby De La Rosa/Roy Halladay
The Marlins get a cost controlled left handed starter who put up a 2.97 ERA in the AL east for a 15 start stretch last year, a top pitching prospect, a very solid catching prospect, a power hitting 3B who a year ago was in consideration for ROY, and their choice of three high ceiling young pitchers for Stanton. That allows the Sox to move Nava between LF, RF, and 1B, which allows them to trade carp for more prospects to replenish the system after the Stanton trade. Chavez is a bridge for a year until Cecchini is ready, and Salty is back for two years to do the same for Swihart. Halladay allows the Red Sox to try out Webster and RDLR for the rotation while having a solid veteran on a low risk high reward contract to provide insurance, which minimizes the risk of trading Peavy. Mike Napoli gets his three year deal, at a lower cost than the 13 million per the Red Sox offered last year with the Rangers out of the mix after their Fielder trade.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,948
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2013 3:25:09 GMT -5
I'm in favor of re-signing Napoli at the right price (2/$19 or 2/$20 with a vesting option based on PA) Honest question: do you think that is the best offer Napoli will get in free agency? If not, do you think he eschews higher offers to re-sign in Boston at that price? What do you think his other offers will look like? I think Napoli may be willing to take a hometown discount, but I think he'll easily get offers with $30m+ in guaranteed money. He obviously likes Boston, but not enough to turn down $10m+ in guaranteed money. The 1 and 2 keys, on my keybiard, are right nezt to the 2 ans 3 keys. Unfortunately, when you miss-type numbers, it looks normal, and stands up to quick proofreading without thought! I meant 2/$29 or 2/$30 (although, on second thought, maybe it should be $28 and $29). A little above (or below) the QO, and if that doesn't grab him, up it a bit. Call his (non-?)bluff on wanting to come back here, if someone is offering him, say 3/$42. I'd rather roll the dice with Carp than guarantee a 3rd year or go above $15M a year.
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 21, 2013 8:28:39 GMT -5
I just learned that Ben Broussard (a) played baseball in 2013 and (b) is still only 36. Thank you, SP projected rosters page! No, seriously, while I may not agree with the choices all the time, the roll over feature for potential acquisitions is awesome.
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