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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2013 11:47:13 GMT -5
FYI, Rafael Betancourt tore his UCL this August and is having Tommy John surgery that might end his career. Carlos Ruiz also just signed for 3/$26.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 18, 2013 12:48:39 GMT -5
FYI, Rafael Betancourt tore his UCL this August and is having Tommy John surgery that might end his career. This is very unfortunate. He's had one hell of a run. I'll say Morales/et al for the final bullpen spot.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2013 17:57:45 GMT -5
jmei v.3:
Sign 1B Corey Hart to a one year, $8m contract with $2.5m in playing time/health incentives C Brian McCann to a four year, $68m contract INF Jamey Carroll to a one year, $2m contract RP Edward Mujica to a two year, $12m contract SS Munenori Kawasaki to a minor league contract
Trade RHP Ryan Dempster (and $6.25m) to the Kansas City Royals for [B-/C+ prospect]
Starting lineup (versus RHP) RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Corey Hart C Brian McCann SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Will Middlebrooks CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bench C David Ross LF Jonny Gomes 1B Mike Carp INF Jamey Carroll
Rotation LHP Jon Lester RHP John Lackey RHP Clay Buchholz LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy
Bullpen RHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica RHP Brandon Workman LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller RHP Brayan Villareal *[LHP Franklin Morales] *[LHP Drake Britton]
(*assuming at least one Spring Training injury means one or more of the asterisked pitchers makes the Opening Day roster.)
Total payroll increase: approximately $26m (plus $2.5m in possible incentives)
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 19, 2013 20:06:51 GMT -5
I like this one jmei, although I don't know too much about Jamey Carroll, it's hard to quibble over a backup IF. However, I think I'd like to see Willie Bloomquist in that role.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 19, 2013 20:58:25 GMT -5
I like this one jmei, although I don't know too much about Jamey Carroll, it's hard to quibble over a backup IF. However, I think I'd like to see Willie Bloomquist in that role. My hope is that the backup infielder be at least an average defensive shortstop and third baseman. Carroll is going to be 40 years old when he shows up to spring training, and only played 17 innings at short in 2013. He was perfectly adequate there as recently as 2012, but I'm not sure how much range he'll have going forward. There's also concern that his bat has finally dissipated: career low OPS (.518) and BB%, second-highest K%. That being said, it was a career low BABIP (.253; .318 career) and there were no discernible changes with his contact rates or LD%'s. Bloomquist is intriguing too, but a look at his numbers showed he had a career high BABIP, didn't walk at all, and he's a pretty poor defensive option at short. He can fill in at 6 positions, but he doesn't play any of them exceptionally well and has typically been below average at the spots we'd need him to back up the most. FWIW, he's also getting up there in age, as he'll be 36 next year. Steamer doesn't buy Bloomquist's 2013 offense at all. It has him at a .311 2014 OBP versus .327 for Carroll. With Carroll's superior defense in mind and likely cheaper cost, I've become quite certain by the end of this post that Carroll would be the better fit. And like you mention, it's only a backup infielder - we always have a pure replacement-level type in Brock Holt waiting in the wings at Pawtucket! Edit: Love the idea of getting Corey Hart on a modest one-year deal. I think he'll be just fine as a backup option in the outfield - it's actually his defense playing first base full-time that I'm a little concerned about.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 19, 2013 21:10:18 GMT -5
I really don't like the idea of Nava hitting in the top half of the lineup. Going to really miss Els speed up there. Replacing it with a station to station guy up top will not be ideal, but what can you do about it until JBjr is ready to hit up there.
This is just a speaking out loud observation.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2013 21:20:52 GMT -5
I really don't like the idea of Nava hitting in the top half of the lineup. Going to really miss Els speed up there. Replacing it with a station to station guy up top will not be ideal, but what can you do about it until JBjr is ready to hit up there. Can you elaborate? I'm not sure what you mean. Nava probably won't repeat his 2013, but his Steamer projection of .269/.355/.410 (110 wRC+) would be the best non-Pedroia/Ortiz/1B line on the team, I think. Hell, that even beats out Ellsbury's .285/.342/.426 (108 wRC+) Steamer projection. Yes, stolen bases are great, but so is getting on-base at a well-above average clip, and noone on the roster does it better than Nava, and it's not like Bradley projects to steal bases either.
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Post by roysox on Nov 20, 2013 0:29:07 GMT -5
Trade: Lackey, Brentz, and a mid to low level prospect for Elvis Andrus. Trade ( maybe): WMB, Nava, Betts, Britton for Yelich Sign: Napoli, wait and see on McCann and have Navarro in ur back pocket 1 Andrus ss 7 Vic. Rf 2 Yelich lf. 8 Boggie 3 Pedi 2b. 9 Bradley 4.Papi dh. Lester, Bucholz, Doubront, Peavey, 5 Napoli 1st Demp/ Halladay? 6 McCann c or (Navarro) would be fine w/ plan B to honest with u 7
7
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 20, 2013 0:48:24 GMT -5
I really don't like the idea of Nava hitting in the top half of the lineup. Going to really miss Els speed up there. Replacing it with a station to station guy up top will not be ideal, but what can you do about it until JBjr is ready to hit up there. This is just a speaking out loud observation. Hard and fast rule in baseball: nothing happens till someone gets on base. That sounds trivial but it's not. No stolen bases or hit and runs, no advance on a bunt, no sacrifice flies, scoring on an XBH, none of it. Want to increase the number of runs a team scores? Put someone who gets on base a lot in front of your best hitters. That isn't guesswork. It's nothing but probability and statistics. Anything less is a waste of the only resource a team has, those 27 outs.
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Post by oleary25 on Nov 20, 2013 2:05:37 GMT -5
I love Jmei's new mock. However I'd like to tweak it a bit. I think Carp is a redundant piece esp. with Nava being bale to play first. I'd rather package him and dempster to The brewers get a better prospect like Victor Roache, or Jed Bradley whose struggled. It seems like a good match because they need A proven starter who can log innings and a 1B bat. Then use the money saved to sign Chris Young to help in the OF. It'd really help the speed problem, and he could protect in case of injury to Victorino, Or Jackie Bradley Jr. slump. Also I'd like to see Brock Holt win a bench spot. He's a good back up for 2B/SS/3B and fits in with the Sox grinder type player. Personally I think no matter what the Red Sox are going to have a good team next year.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Nov 20, 2013 6:59:44 GMT -5
Trade
John Lackey + to PIT for someone like Tallon who still has upside but has underperformed so far. Ryan Dempster to MIL Franklin Morales to ATL for a B- level minor leaguer
Sign Mike Napoli 2/26 Chris Young 1/7 Salty 2/20 John McDonald (Minor League Deal) Willie Bloomquist (Minor League Deal) Edward Mujica 1/5 Roy Halladay 1/4 deal has incentives that can raise it up to 11 mil
Lineup
RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Mike Napoli SS Xander Bogaerts C Salty 3B Will Middlebrooks CF Jackie Bradley Jr/Chris Young (Platoon)
Bench C David Ross LF Jonny Gomes 1B Mike Carp INF Willie Bloomquist
Rotation LHP Jon Lester RHP Clay Buchholz RHP Roy Halladay LHP Felix Doubront RHP Jake Peavy
Bullpen RHP Koji Uehara RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Edward Mujica RHP Brandon Workman LHP Craig Breslow LHP Andrew Miller Final Spot RDLR/Webster/Wright/Britton/Hinojosa (Sox go with a high upside arm with starting experience to replace Morales)
I would also like to mention that Napoli and Salty can easily become interchangeable with Corey Hart and someone like Vazquez if they feel he's ready. If that happens then this is the lineup I would go with. Again this is being really really aggressive with Vazquez so they might just let Butler run with it. I do not want this organization going after McCann due to age and money he will command. I don't want them giving up value for Hanigan because he can frame pitches. Lavarnway isn't the answer either. Vazquez and Butler are probably both ready with the glove. I'm more inclined to give Butler a try due to his age. You need to see what you have there (despite the fact he profiles better as a backup). Not to mention since you aren't resigning your guys or any QO free agents you are getting 3 more picks in a loaded 2014 draft.
Alt Lineup
RF Shane Victorino LF Daniel Nava 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Corey Hart SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Will Middlebrooks CF Jackie Bradley Jr/Chris Young (Platoon) C Christian Vazquez/Dan Butler/David Ross/Ryan Lavarnway (whichever internal option they go with)
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 20, 2013 8:17:08 GMT -5
In thinking about jmei's point in the Shaw thread re less of a need for a Mauro Gomez type 1B backup in AAA... who is the backup CFer after Victorino? The depth chart goes:
1. Bradley 2. Victorino 3. Hatfield??
I suppose it is Kalish, but, well, that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Last year the #3 CFer was Bradley, for example.
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Post by joshv02 on Nov 20, 2013 8:24:50 GMT -5
TradeJohn Lackey + to PIT for someone like Tallon who still has upside but has underperformed so far. Taillon, the number #19 prospect in baseball at the start of 2013, #11 at the mid-season point, who made it to AAA as a 21 year old and struck out a batter per inning? I don't know what teams will give for Lackey, but I don't think "underperformed" is the right description here. You'd be trading for one of the top, MLB ready, young pitchers in baseball, who doesn't need to be on the 40 man roster yet. That's gold. Maybe it is worth it for Lackey (I doubt it), but the only way he underperformed is if you think anything less than being a top 30 MLB pitcher is underperforming.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 20, 2013 8:27:08 GMT -5
OK. C'mon man. If you're running the Rangers, are you satisfied with Lackey and Brentz + mid-level prospect for Andrus?
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Post by raftsox on Nov 20, 2013 9:47:14 GMT -5
To me, signing Lester to only a good idea if its 4 years and under. I do not see him pitching well deep into his career. Why? He's never shown any history of injuries, unless you count cancer that is. He pitches effectively with a clean motion and solid results. Honestly, I'd be comfortable giving Lester an extension for 5 years with mutual options for 2 more as long as the $ was reasonable. That would bring him near the end of his career and provide the Sox with some reasonable rotation stability.
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Post by honkbal on Nov 20, 2013 9:51:49 GMT -5
I love Jmei's new mock. However I'd like to tweak it a bit. I think Carp is a redundant piece esp. with Nava being bale to play first. I'd rather package him and dempster to The brewers get a better prospect like Victor Roache, or Jed Bradley whose struggled. It seems like a good match because they need A proven starter who can log innings and a 1B bat. Then use the money saved to sign Chris Young to help in the OF. It'd really help the speed problem, and he could protect in case of injury to Victorino, Or Jackie Bradley Jr. slump. Also I'd like to see Brock Holt win a bench spot. He's a good back up for 2B/SS/3B and fits in with the Sox grinder type player. Personally I think no matter what the Red Sox are going to have a good team next year. Honestly, I think a Corey Hart signing is one of the few instances where it seems reasonable to keep Carp. Hart is the starting 1B, but also acts as insurance against Victorino injury or Bradley ineffectiveness. But if that happens, you need Carp to pick up playing time at 1B/LF with Nava and Gomes.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 10:06:13 GMT -5
I really don't like the idea of Nava hitting in the top half of the lineup. Going to really miss Els speed up there. Replacing it with a station to station guy up top will not be ideal, but what can you do about it until JBjr is ready to hit up there. Can you elaborate? I'm not sure what you mean. Nava probably won't repeat his 2013, but his Steamer projection of .269/.355/.410 (110 wRC+) would be the best non-Pedroia/Ortiz/1B line on the team, I think. Hell, that even beats out Ellsbury's .285/.342/.426 (108 wRC+) Steamer projection. Yes, stolen bases are great, but so is getting on-base at a well-above average clip, and noone on the roster does it better than Nava, and it's not like Bradley projects to steal bases either. Sure, but before I do understand this was a small nit pick and I'm understanding he's probably the best non Ellsbury option available to the team. It was a comment on his lack of speed and poor base running not stolen bases. Getting on base is great and of the most importance. Once on base, there's a distinct difference between guys with speed and great base running ability vs slower "base cloggers" - station to station guys. Nava may not be Ortiz, but he fit in with the Ortiz, Nap, Salty group as base cloggers. It was a reflection on how dynamic on the bases Els, Vic and Pedey were up top. And stolen bases is only a small part of that. It's a change and I'll miss last years dynamic, but that's not a reason to overpay Els or force a guy like JBjr up there who isn't ready. You disagree?
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 10:31:39 GMT -5
In thinking about jmei's point in the Shaw thread re less of a need for a Mauro Gomez type 1B backup in AAA... who is the backup CFer after Victorino? The depth chart goes: 1. Bradley 2. Victorino 3. Hatfield?? I suppose it is Kalish, but, well, that doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Last year the #3 CFer was Bradley, for example. It would be Alex Castellanos, I think. He's not a great defensive center fielder, but neither was Kalish (even when healthy), and Castellanos is both on the 40-man and has an option left. There's a temptation to add a veteran in AAA for precisely the reason you point out, but the Pawtucket outfield is already pretty full with Hassan/Kalish/Brentz/Castellanos. I suppose it's a reason to trade Carp and sign a guy like Chris Young or Rajai Davis or Franklin Gutierrez, though, which is something I'd be comfortable with if Carp fetches enough of a trade return to make the endeavor worth it.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 10:38:38 GMT -5
Sure, but before I do understand this was a small nit pick and I'm understanding he's probably the best non Ellsbury option available to the team. It was a comment on his lack of speed and poor base running not stolen bases. Getting on base is great and of the most importance. Once on base, there's a distinct difference between guys with speed and great base running ability vs slower "base cloggers" - station to station guys. Nava may not be Ortiz, but he fit in with the Ortiz, Nap, Salty group as base cloggers. It was a reflection on how dynamic on the bases Els, Vic and Pedey were up top. And stolen bases is only a small part of that. It's a change and I'll miss last years dynamic, but that's not a reason to overpay Els or force a guy like JBjr up there who isn't ready. You disagree? I think Nava is a better baserunner than you think. His Fangraphs baserunning score (which combines stolen bases, advancing 1st-to-3rd, scoring from third on sac flies or from first on doubles, etc.) is about average over his career. He's no worse a baserunner than Dustin Pedroia (who has been around average the last four years), for example, and far better than Ortiz (one of the worst baserunners in baseball) or Napoli (a negative baserunner four years running). Speed is obviously nice, but getting on base is generally more important, and Victorino (who adds a ton of non-SB baserunning value) is still leading off in my mock lineup, so there's still a little bit of it on the team.
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Post by njsox on Nov 20, 2013 11:51:02 GMT -5
I like this one jmei, although I don't know too much about Jamey Carroll, it's hard to quibble over a backup IF. However, I think I'd like to see Willie Bloomquist in that role. My hope is that the backup infielder be at least an average defensive shortstop and third baseman. Carroll is going to be 40 years old when he shows up to spring training, and only played 17 innings at short in 2013. He was perfectly adequate there as recently as 2012, but I'm not sure how much range he'll have going forward. There's also concern that his bat has finally dissipated: career low OPS (.518) and BB%, second-highest K%. That being said, it was a career low BABIP (.253; .318 career) and there were no discernible changes with his contact rates or LD%'s. Bloomquist is intriguing too, but a look at his numbers showed he had a career high BABIP, didn't walk at all, and he's a pretty poor defensive option at short. He can fill in at 6 positions, but he doesn't play any of them exceptionally well and has typically been below average at the spots we'd need him to back up the most. FWIW, he's also getting up there in age, as he'll be 36 next year. Steamer doesn't buy Bloomquist's 2013 offense at all. It has him at a .311 2014 OBP versus .327 for Carroll. With Carroll's superior defense in mind and likely cheaper cost, I've become quite certain by the end of this post that Carroll would be the better fit. And like you mention, it's only a backup infielder - we always have a pure replacement-level type in Brock Holt waiting in the wings at Pawtucket! Edit: Love the idea of getting Corey Hart on a modest one-year deal. I think he'll be just fine as a backup option in the outfield - it's actually his defense playing first base full-time that I'm a little concerned about. How about Yamaico Navarro? I used to be a fan and thought one day he may make a great utility guy. He continues to be a great AAA player and may finally be ready at 26 years old to make contributions to an MLB team in a utility role. Should be able to bring him into camp on a minor league deal. Certainly wouldn't mind having him at AAA for depth/injury insurance if we could pull that off.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 20, 2013 11:55:08 GMT -5
Sure, but before I do understand this was a small nit pick and I'm understanding he's probably the best non Ellsbury option available to the team. It was a comment on his lack of speed and poor base running not stolen bases. Getting on base is great and of the most importance. Once on base, there's a distinct difference between guys with speed and great base running ability vs slower "base cloggers" - station to station guys. Nava may not be Ortiz, but he fit in with the Ortiz, Nap, Salty group as base cloggers. It was a reflection on how dynamic on the bases Els, Vic and Pedey were up top. And stolen bases is only a small part of that. It's a change and I'll miss last years dynamic, but that's not a reason to overpay Els or force a guy like JBjr up there who isn't ready. You disagree? I think Nava is a better baserunner than you think. His Fangraphs baserunning score (which combines stolen bases, advancing 1st-to-3rd, scoring from third on sac flies or from first on doubles, etc.) is about average over his career. He's no worse a baserunner than Dustin Pedroia (who has been around average the last four years), for example, and far better than Ortiz (one of the worst baserunners in baseball) or Napoli (a negative baserunner four years running). Speed is obviously nice, but getting on base is generally more important, and Victorino (who adds a ton of non-SB baserunning value) is still leading off in my mock lineup, so there's still a little bit of it on the team. I think a lot of people remember that poor decision Nava made to tag up on the Chris Stewart catch at Fenway this July - he got a lot of crap for that. Combined with Gomes' reputation as a terrific baserunner - and I think that was one of the points people looked to when trying to fathom why he was playing over Nava in the playoffs - people developed an unfairly critical opinion of Nava's baserunning.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2013 11:59:53 GMT -5
Yamaico Navarro has been playing only LF in the Dominican League (which he has been tearing up, by the way-- 5 HRs, 15:8 BB/K in 89 PAs). I'm not sure he has the range to play SS, but he's also played 2B and 3B in recent years and has a better bat than most utility types. He'd be great on a minor league deal (with a ST invite), though he may find a guaranteed major league deal out there and I would be wary if he were the only backup SS on the major league roster.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 14:08:23 GMT -5
Sure, but before I do understand this was a small nit pick and I'm understanding he's probably the best non Ellsbury option available to the team. It was a comment on his lack of speed and poor base running not stolen bases. Getting on base is great and of the most importance. Once on base, there's a distinct difference between guys with speed and great base running ability vs slower "base cloggers" - station to station guys. Nava may not be Ortiz, but he fit in with the Ortiz, Nap, Salty group as base cloggers. It was a reflection on how dynamic on the bases Els, Vic and Pedey were up top. And stolen bases is only a small part of that. It's a change and I'll miss last years dynamic, but that's not a reason to overpay Els or force a guy like JBjr up there who isn't ready. You disagree? I think Nava is a better baserunner than you think. His Fangraphs baserunning score (which combines stolen bases, advancing 1st-to-3rd, scoring from third on sac flies or from first on doubles, etc.) is about average over his career. He's no worse a baserunner than Dustin Pedroia (who has been around average the last four years), for example, and far better than Ortiz (one of the worst baserunners in baseball) or Napoli (a negative baserunner four years running). Speed is obviously nice, but getting on base is generally more important, and Victorino (who adds a ton of non-SB baserunning value) is still leading off in my mock lineup, so there's still a little bit of it on the team. I'm sure those base running numbers add some value, but I can't put a lot of stock into them there's too much external stuff that goes into base running that putting it into a stat is questionable. It assumes too much. I've watched Nava and seen him screw up on the base paths numerous occasions and his speed is limited. He's not a terrible base runner, but I don't think he's even average and if so then average has dropped below acceptable levels for a top team. However, I really don't want to go down this road too deep as overall I understand why you have him there and why he makes sense there. It was more of an observation based solely on that part of his game. I clearly would not replace him near the top with a guy that sucked at getting on base just because he was faster or a better base runner. Those do nothing for you if you can't get on base. Furthermore, I love a hitter like Nava in the 6 spot or lower. He adds a ton of value as a hitter and deepens a lineup phenomenally there. He basically ensures that a pitcher will have to work to get through the bottom of the lineup and can't cruise through it. Think Bill Mueller when he was here. Guys with good OBP, good speed and great base running don't grow on trees so it's not logical to think that a team can fill the top 3 spots in their lineup with those guys every year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 14:29:55 GMT -5
I think a lot of people remember that poor decision Nava made to tag up on the Chris Stewart catch at Fenway this July - he got a lot of crap for that. Combined with Gomes' reputation as a terrific baserunner - and I think that was one of the points people looked to when trying to fathom why he was playing over Nava in the playoffs - people developed an unfairly critical opinion of Nava's baserunning. The uses of "I think" does prove this is just a matter of opinion and we're all entitled to our own. I think I've already explained what I meant when I said I don't love the idea of Nava batting near the top of the lineup so that's a dead issue for me. Regarding this though, my opinion is not swayed by Gomes nor does that play stand out in my mind. It does sort of, highlight his indecisiveness. The play when he couldn't' score from second on a double off the right field wall in Fenway better show's his poor skills. Oddly enough he was probably technically safe on the play, but the fact it was even close was the issue. In that situation he either didn't understand the situation in the game or didn't know how to play the situation or both. Tagging up on a ball like that in that situation shouldn't even be on his mind.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 20, 2013 14:52:53 GMT -5
INF Jamey Carroll to a one year, $2m contract YES.
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