SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 4, 2014 18:01:22 GMT -5
For me, Allen Webster is one of the hardest prospect in the system to rank. On one hand, he had a very good season in AAA. On the other, he got completely rocked in the majors. What I found interesting looking at his game logs is how much his big league struggles - or perhaps just bouncing back and forth - seem to have negatively affected his AAA numbers.
I'll preface this by saying in general, splitting what is already a small sample into even smaller samples is not always the best idea. It is entirely possible this is just SSS noise.
First, Webster seemed to lose control after getting rocked by the Twins on 5/8 and then getting demoted. From that point until his next MLB start on 6/22 his BB% and K% numbers were: 31.1 IP: K%: 23.1% BB%: 12.3%
His AAA numbers without this stretch: 74.2 IP: K%: 28.1% BB%: 8.7%
Another way of looking at this - in the two starts following his three demotions Webster's numbers were: 26IP: K%: 28.2% BB%: 15.4%
His AAA numbers with these starts excluded: 80 IP: K%: 26% BB%: 7.7%
So what do we make of this? Is the inconsistency part of who Webster is? Should we be concerned with his makeup (only from the perspective of his ability to overcome adversity)? Or is it a sign that with some experience he can settle down? If Webster could maintain a BB% rate of under 8%, I feel very good that he can be a solid #3 starter. What do you think?
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 4, 2014 18:23:37 GMT -5
I'm worried about his struggles in the Dominican this winter, albeit in very, very few innings. It ended his season on a sour note.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2014 18:58:21 GMT -5
It has continuously surprised me how some folks believe his star is falling. Webster is VERY young to the art of pitching, will be just 24 next month, and has, at times DOMINATED during his stay in Pawtucket. One stat I always look at for a pitcher is the hits per inning and Allen Webster's in AAA is damn good! In 105 innings, even moving back and forth a couple times to Boston, he gave up just 71 hits! That is very good and hints at the ability he has. YES, he needs to sharpen his control and probably improve the mental part, but Webster has the potential to still be a very important member of OUR rotation.
I hope he gets a fair chance this year to put together 8 to 10 starts (in the majors) before we get negative. He is one of the pitchers that we have that could be more than a #3, and I am hoping he comes to spring training in February and really lights it up. Certainly Barnes and Owens could pass him by, but I would not be shocked if he pushes his performance to another level this year.
I've said this in other threads, I would like to see Workman or Webster or one of our young starters TAKE away one of the spots in our rotation this season. There is such a thing as a log jam at Pawtucket. Keeping Dempster (and maybe Peavy ALSO) is, for me, counter productive for 2015 and beyond. Lets see what these talented kids can do.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 4, 2014 19:41:06 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Webster reminds me of Grienke. In terms of maybe confidence issues. I know Grienke was depresion related and probably very different than Webster, and I'm not even sure at all if Webster has any confidence issues, but he looks like maybe believing in himself or confidence issues COULD be a factor from just watching him pitch. If someone had self doubts it would affect their ability to get the ball in an ideal location under pressure. One of many factors of course but he looks timid to me.
The posts above seem to indicate this also. Recovering from getting bombed in the majors affecting him for several starts after.
I'd like to see him go out there and just pitch, without worry. Let the chips fall where they may. He obviously has some swing and miss ability.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 4, 2014 21:28:06 GMT -5
It has continuously surprised me how some folks believe his star is falling. Webster is VERY young to the art of pitching, will be just 24 next month, and has, at times DOMINATED during his stay in Pawtucket. One stat I always look at for a pitcher is the hits per inning and Allen Webster's in AAA is damn good! In 105 innings, even moving back and forth a couple times to Boston, he gave up just 71 hits! That is very good and hints at the ability he has. YES, he needs to sharpen his control and probably improve the mental part, but Webster has the potential to still be a very important member of OUR rotation. I hope he gets a fair chance this year to put together 8 to 10 starts (in the majors) before we get negative. He is one of the pitchers that we have that could be more than a #3, and I am hoping he comes to spring training in February and really lights it up. Certainly Barnes and Owens could pass him by, but I would not be shocked if he pushes his performance to another level this year. I've said this in other threads, I would like to see Workman or Webster or one of our young starters TAKE away one of the spots in our rotation this season. There is such a thing as a log jam at Pawtucket. Keeping Dempster (and maybe Peavy ALSO) is, for me, counter productive for 2015 and beyond. Lets see what these talented kids can do. I feel your pain. I'm high on Webster and am dumbfounded that his stock has fallen, even if only slightly.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 4, 2014 22:41:57 GMT -5
It has continuously surprised me how some folks believe his star is falling. Webster is VERY young to the art of pitching, will be just 24 next month, and has, at times DOMINATED during his stay in Pawtucket. One stat I always look at for a pitcher is the hits per inning and Allen Webster's in AAA is damn good! In 105 innings, even moving back and forth a couple times to Boston, he gave up just 71 hits! That is very good and hints at the ability he has. YES, he needs to sharpen his control and probably improve the mental part, but Webster has the potential to still be a very important member of OUR rotation. I hope he gets a fair chance this year to put together 8 to 10 starts (in the majors) before we get negative. He is one of the pitchers that we have that could be more than a #3, and I am hoping he comes to spring training in February and really lights it up. Certainly Barnes and Owens could pass him by, but I would not be shocked if he pushes his performance to another level this year. I've said this in other threads, I would like to see Workman or Webster or one of our young starters TAKE away one of the spots in our rotation this season. There is such a thing as a log jam at Pawtucket. Keeping Dempster (and maybe Peavy ALSO) is, for me, counter productive for 2015 and beyond. Lets see what these talented kids can do. I feel your pain. I'm high on Webster and am dumbfounded that his stock has fallen, even if only slightly. Perhaps the reason that he has fallen in some people's eyes is the interaction of two conditions (1) His perceived lack of self-confidence and the residual effect of a bad outing; and (2) The fact that in Boston players are always under a critical microscope, so that if (1) is truly a problem for him, he may be the type of player who won't handle the Boston environment well.
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on Jan 5, 2014 1:18:49 GMT -5
Good thread Chavo. This is an interesting way to look at his season #'s, and identifies a trend that I definitely caught on throughout the season. Webster really hasn't generated much talk here since June and he's a favorite prospect of mine so here we go...
I still love Webster as a prospect and would rank him above RDLR, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Workman simply due to his ceiling. The industry seems to be discouraged by his 2013 season, which is reasonable, but how many pitching prospects boast the repertoire that Wesbter does? A Fastball that touches 98 and has excellent ground ball-inducing sink, a "solid-average-to-plus 83-87 mph slider with tight rotation and late bite" as stated in his SP profile, and the whiff-machine of a change that he has. How many top pitching prospects can say that they have two plus pitches and a "solid-average-to-plus" pitch? Baseball's top pitching prospect Tijuan Walker has a "sweeping curve" which supposedly is a work in progress. That's known as his second best offering. Jameson Taillon obviously has a plus-plus fastball and a plus curve, but those in the know say his slider and change are below average. Obviously there is more to a pitcher than his offerings, and that's what separates guys like Walker and Taillon, and obviously Webster doesn't belong in the same conversation as baseball's top pitching prospects. But the point remains; Allen Webster has an extremely impressive 4-pitch repertoire, three of which are filthy. The command remains a big issue, and like Chavo said the makeup can be questioned, but the stuff and ceiling are most definitely still there.
I know this is stated all the time but he fully converted to pitching in 2009 (I believe), so he's only entering his 5th season as a full time starting pitcher. If he has a similar season to 2013, where he showed signs of potential in AAA only to get rocked in the majors, then we can start looking at his "#2/3 ceiling" as unreachable. In the meantime, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
With a guy like Webster it's tough to find someones career that his could somewhat parallel, but Joe Nathan's seems reasonable. Nathan was drafted by the Giants in 1995 as a SS and was out of baseball in '96 after he refused to convert to pitching. He came back in 1997 and had minor league BB/9's of 3.7, 4.6, 5.5, 5.8 from '98-'01 respectively. He followed up an injured 2002 season with a 3.8 MLB BB/9 in '03 before exploding onto the scene in 2004 at the age of 29. The rest is history. I also like the comparison simply because Nathan was a reliever. Nathan was fully converted to the pen only after he was an established arm in the majors. Nathan made 39 appearances before fully converting to relieving duties (due to injury). 29 of those were starts. Are Webster and Joe Nathan similar pitchers? No, but that's not the point. This is just a certain career path I could see him going down.
Of course a Webster-Nathan resemblance becomes dim if Webster sticks as a starter, but relieving surely is a possibility in the future. Barring a big step back w/ his command (or lack of improvement beyond this year) I'd consider Webster's floor to be a stud reliever. A 4-pitch mix where he can reach back and dial up 98 w/ the heat would be unfair. Heck he could even abandon the curve & slider and still be filthy with a simple fastball-change combo! Looking back at his major league numbers last year, if there was one positive to draw it would be the # of swings and misses generated. His two best games in that regard: 4/21: 14 strikes swinging in ML debut vs KC. 7/22: 20 strikes swinging in game he got crushed vs. DET
Simply put, I see Webster's floor as one that brings solid value and his ceiling as one to still dream on. Is his command worrisome? Yes. Should his 36% MLB FB% last season(SSS) be a cause for concern? Maybe. But I still love him as a prospect and would rank him at #4 or #5 on the site.
Tying this back to the point of the thread; his rough patches in Boston clearly got to his head and caused the inconsistencies. You can't really teach an average-good pitcher to develop three plus pitches. On the flip side issues like poor makeup and inconsistency can be overcome. While there are no guarantees with any prospect, Boston has one of the best player development systems in baseball so I'm definitely willing to give Boston the benefit of the doubt here! I truly believe that we have a stud in Webster, let's just hope I'm right.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 5, 2014 2:40:43 GMT -5
As I said last year, it will take patience with Webster. He intersperses stretches where few of his pitches can find the zone, and when they do they're in the heart of the plate, with innings where hitters can't find his pitches to save their lives.
His stuff is ridiculous, oftentimes too ridiculous for him to even make sense of. But he's still young and, despite the steep learning curve, he's made it to AAA. There is hope.
He just needs a vision of his ceiling, that place way up there in the sky.
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Jan 5, 2014 2:49:24 GMT -5
If Webster's issue is confidence, perhaps he should be a RP until he has established comfort at the MLB level? I am not sure what happened in Dempster's career. He was a starter initially with 1 good year (2000). Then spent 2004-7 as a RP, before returning to starter with 4 straight seasons 200+ IP, the first 3 with sub-4 ERA.
|
|
|
Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 5, 2014 10:37:25 GMT -5
As I said last year, it will take patience with Webster. He intersperses stretches where few of his pitches can find the zone, and when they do they're in the heart of the plate, with innings where hitters can't find his pitches to save their lives. His stuff is ridiculous, oftentimes too ridiculous for him to even make sense of. But he's still young and, despite the steep learning curve, he's made it to AAA. There is hope. He just needs a vision of his ceiling, that place way up there in the sky. What he really needs is control. If they can harness his stuff then the Sox have a potential ace. Same with RDLR. They both just need to learn control. I think his prospect status shouldn't have taken that much of a hit at all.
|
|
|
Post by c00lryan on Jan 5, 2014 10:44:54 GMT -5
Are most of you just speculating that he has confidence issues, or have there been any articles/documentation that he suffers from a lack of confidence (or lost confidence after his cups of coffee last year)? I did a quick search but didn't find anything concrete...
If we're just assuming he doesn't have a lot of confidence and we're making comparisons to Zack Greinke (who has a social anxiety disorder), I think that's a little ridiculous. Young pitchers get lit up and have stretches where they struggle (really, almost ALL pitchers, for that matter). Especially pitchers who have only been pitching full time as a professional (about 5 years).
His mechanics could have been off... he could have been too amped up and more erratic than normal... he could have broken up with his girlfriend(s)... he might have had some bad chinese the night before...
It's easy to drum up statistics where a pitcher has been promoted to the show, and then got shelled for a week or two after. My guess is that it's happened to hundreds of pitchers throughout MLB history. But, I think it's unfair to attribute that pitcher's struggles to a perceived lack of confidence by just looking at his statistics and nothing else.
Clearly, Webster's biggest issue is his control, which would - on the surface - explain his lack of consistency (to answer Chavo's original question).
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 5, 2014 11:02:10 GMT -5
One thing that bugs me about this discussion: can we please knock it off with the "he's new to pitching" stuff? He's been pitching as a pro for over five years now. It's no longer a relevant factor.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2014 11:44:23 GMT -5
He needs to learn to "trust his stuff" and pitch in the zone. His hit totals are low most likely because he's not in the zone much. He lives and dies off strikeouts and walks; it's hard to be consistent lie that. All isn't lost, there are never perfect comps, but a lot of pitchers go through similar things. Some are successful, some aren't. Good news is this isn't a power guy with no movement on his stuff. He can be successful without perfect command in the zone. He has margin for error to work with.
Buchholz, had to learn how to pitch like this, and his K numbers dropped.
|
|
|
Post by c00lryan on Jan 5, 2014 11:44:27 GMT -5
One thing that bugs me about this discussion: can we please knock it off with the "he's new to pitching" stuff? He's been pitching as a pro for over five years now. It's no longer a relevant factor. Fenway, not sure if that was directed at my post, but my point was: Webster's only been focusing exclusively on pitching since 2008 (where he threw a grand total of 18 innings, and then 69 innings in 2009). It's common for relatively new pitchers to struggle with consistency. I didn't mean to imply that he was "new to pitching," but only that he's 23 and has only been pitching for a few years. So, there's still a good amount of time and room to develop consistency.
|
|
|
Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 5, 2014 12:12:50 GMT -5
Are most of you just speculating that he has confidence issues, or have there been any articles/documentation that he suffers from a lack of confidence (or lost confidence after his cups of coffee last year)? I did a quick search but didn't find anything concrete... If we're just assuming he doesn't have a lot of confidence and we're making comparisons to Zack Greinke (who has a social anxiety disorder), I think that's a little ridiculous. Young pitchers get lit up and have stretches where they struggle (really, almost ALL pitchers, for that matter). Especially pitchers who have only been pitching full time as a professional (about 5 years). His mechanics could have been off... he could have been too amped up and more erratic than normal... he could have broken up with his girlfriend(s)... he might have had some bad chinese the night before... It's easy to drum up statistics where a pitcher has been promoted to the show, and then got shelled for a week or two after. My guess is that it's happened to hundreds of pitchers throughout MLB history. But, I think it's unfair to attribute that pitcher's struggles to a perceived lack of confidence by just looking at his statistics and nothing else. Clearly, Webster's biggest issue is his control, which would - on the surface - explain his lack of consistency (to answer Chavo's original question). For me, it was not documented or written but the eye test. A number of starts at both AAA and obviously in the show that I witnessed lacked mound presence. This is not amateur psyc. I do not think Grienke or anyone properly diagnosed is a valid or helpful comp. I like his talent and hope the confidence shown in Webster is warranted. While I'm rooting for him, of the big five, I have him at the bottom. I'm sure the fo thinks more of him than I do. I also can see patience at this point as being wise. If given the opportunity to dominate for 15 to 20 starts in aaa, he could gain the confidence he needs. This season could very well see others make starts and 'move ahead' of him with major league success. I don't see this as a reflection of his talent but of the others. De La Rosa is a year further away from tj. Renaudo is coming off a redemptive year with very high end capabilities. Barnes has stuck to a strict plan on what he is allowed to throw and when and I expect he may be set loose moving forward. Owens has had stretches of complete dominance. He is obviously further away but sometimes pure talent demands promotion.
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Jan 5, 2014 13:02:00 GMT -5
In looking over a few of Websters game logs, he pitched well following the May demotion, but got rocked in the two games following the Jul demotion. I am inclined to think there is a confidence issue as Webster had an outstanding 1.09 WHIP in AAA but 1.81 with Bos. I supposed indicator would be pitching in a jam, either with RISP or after giving up a HR. Not to side track, but the reason I don't think Owens has serious control issues is that he may give up a walk or even two to start an inning, but then he tightens down to close out the inning. It seems to me that he working on his repertoire than being excessively worried about his stat line (which were mostly outstanding)
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 5, 2014 13:08:57 GMT -5
There are literally thousands of pitchers who have come up to the majors and gotten shelled. Some eventually pull through it and go on to great careers. A whole lot never do find success at the mlb level and there seems to be a limited window of opportunity sometimes in that regard. A 50 inning sample can make all the difference in the world as to whether a guy makes it or not.
Lots of guys just are perceived to "have it" or "not". If I were Webster I would do more to demonstrate confidence because he is perceived to not have it by many of us.
And look at his stuff as compared to Workman's. But is it far superior control by Workman or is it just more ability to keep calm and focus on the big stage.
In no way did I even try to imply that Webster has any sort of anxiety disorder or depression or need medication etc...as I think I made crystal clear in my post but to me he looks like he is timid out there. But that is entirely reasonable for a new guy who has a lot of expectations placed on him. When I watched Becket at his best the guy seemed to be able to control his emotions well. If Webster can learn to do that and "slow things down" in his mind ...etc. maybe he can make the same adjustment Buchholz and many others did. And if it means he stays in AAA to learn how to do that for 2 more years so be it. Worse things have happened.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 13:29:04 GMT -5
I think the most likely scenario is still that these inconsistencies are part of the pitcher Webster is and the fact that the came soon after a demotion is probably more statistical noise than anything else. If that is the case then Webster was a baseline 10% BB% pitcher and he'll have to make some serious strides in that department if he is to reach his potential.
With that said, there is at least a chance these were not random and were instead directly related to his demotions. If that is the case, I believe the most likely scenario is that he had some rookie yips and can get past them with experience. In this scenario he is a baseline 8% BB% player, which along with his K% would make him much closer to being a #3 already.
The third scenario is that his post-demotion struggles were not random, but were also not just rookie yips. I think this is the least likely scenario and leads us down a dangerous path of speculating on his psyche. I should have been more careful with my wording to avoid leading the conversation down this path.
I'm hopeful Webster made more strides than we realize with his control last year. Since he is likely to go up and down this year, I'll be looking for him to have more consistency post demotion this year.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 5, 2014 13:37:12 GMT -5
One thing that bugs me about this discussion: can we please knock it off with the "he's new to pitching" stuff? He's been pitching as a pro for over five years now. It's no longer a relevant factor. Fenway, not sure if that was directed at my post, but my point was: Webster's only been focusing exclusively on pitching since 2008 (where he threw a grand total of 18 innings, and then 69 innings in 2009). It's common for relatively new pitchers to struggle with consistency. I didn't mean to imply that he was "new to pitching," but only that he's 23 and has only been pitching for a few years. So, there's still a good amount of time and room to develop consistency. 2008 was a long time ago. In 2008, Hillary Clinton was our future president and Lars Anderson was our future first baseman. I think that after half a decade of professional instruction and nearly 600 minor league innings (not counting winter leagues, where he has struggled this year), to excuse his performance because he's only been pitching "a few years" is a stretch. Regardless of what his experience was prior to pro ball, it's been more than long enough to dismiss that as a meaningful factor. Webster is going into 2014 as a 24 year old pitcher with serious control issues, same as any other 24 year old pitcher with serious control issues. Which is not a death sentence for his career. But in my opinion, to think that he has more potential for development than any other prospect with his age/performance profile because of what he was doing in 2007 is pure wishcasting.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 13:52:55 GMT -5
In looking over a few of Websters game logs, he pitched well following the May demotion, but got rocked in the two games following the Jul demotion. I am inclined to think there is a confidence issue as Webster had an outstanding 1.09 WHIP in AAA but 1.81 with Bos. I supposed indicator would be pitching in a jam, either with RISP or after giving up a HR. Not to side track, but the reason I don't think Owens has serious control issues is that he may give up a walk or even two to start an inning, but then he tightens down to close out the inning. It seems to me that he working on his repertoire than being excessively worried about his stat line (which were mostly outstanding) It is easy to look at his May demotion and say he pitched well, because his ERA and WHIP were fine, but that was primarily due to an extremely low (and likely unsustainable) BABIP. His BB% spiked during this time and his K% was also down some. He was walking over 40% more batters during this stretch than he was during the rest of the season.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 5, 2014 13:57:51 GMT -5
I think you have the causal connection backwards if you think his lack of mound presence leads him to not throw the ball over the plate because he's not confident in his stuff or whatever. That's focusing on a symptom while ignoring the cause. Rather, his inconsistent release point and the varying movement on his pitches makes it difficult for him to command his pitches, and his improvements have to come more from the physical/kinetic side than the psychological side. It's not that he doesn't want to throw his pitches over the zone; it's that he can't. His two-seamer in particular is so inconsistent-- sometimes it has such extreme lateral movement that if he wants to throw it over the plate, he has to aim it at a LHH's ribs. But if he does that, sometimes the movement isn't there and the pitch goes way inside or hits a guy (his HBP numbers were really high for a non-knuckleballer).
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 5, 2014 14:11:31 GMT -5
I suppose what baffles me is this:
Webster was traded to our system and immediately ranked as the #4 prospect in our system. This coming after (our towards the end of) a year in which he was repeating Double-A and put up the following numbers:
WHIP: 1.485, H/9: 9.2, BB/9: 4.2, K/9: 8.9
That is fairly unspectacular, yet we were excited and optimistic. He then spends his FIRST full season in Triple A and puts up:
WHIP: 1.086, H/9: 6.1, BB/9: 3.7, K/9: 9.9
So he jumped up a level, and improved across the board including the drastic reduction in hits/9 as has already been discussed. All of this, and he falls to the 8 position in the rankings with the majority of the fanbase being very lukewarm on him all of a sudden. So why? For one, the reports on him during spring training were so ridiculous that I think everyone expected him to force his way to the majors this year and be a star. When he did pitch the majors, he did struggle, but I think even that is being blown out of proportion for two reasons. 1. He actually didn't do all that bad in 3 of the 6 starts he made, but everyone is focused on the 3 starts that he got shelled. 2. The ridiculous rate of swings and misses at least confirm how nasty his stuff is at the major league level.
I think more realistically we should have been looking for progression from Webster this year making the jump from Double to Triple A, and I think its clear that progress was made. I'm not going to argue that the command is questionable and will ultimately decide his ceiling, but to me, he is the only guy in our system with a ceiling as a #1 (yes, a #1), and his floor as a high leverage reliever isn't too shabby either. I like him ahead of all of our pitching prospects, even Henry Owens, who has very similar problems with command, yet hasn't proven himself at the levels that Webster has.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 14:13:12 GMT -5
I think you have the causal connection backwards if you think his lack of mound presence leads him to not throw the ball over the plate because he's not confident in his stuff or whatever. That's focusing on a symptom while ignoring the cause. Rather, his inconsistent release point and the varying movement on his pitches makes it difficult for him to command his pitches, and his improvements have to come more from the physical/kinetic side than the psychological side. It's not that he doesn't want to throw his pitches over the zone; it's that he can't. His two-seamer in particular is so inconsistent-- sometimes it has such extreme lateral movement that if he wants to throw it over the plate, he has to aim it at a LHH's ribs. But if he does that, sometimes the movement isn't there and the pitch goes way inside or hits a guy (his HBP numbers were really high for a non-knuckleballer). I don't disagree with you, but keep in mind that 9 of his 16 HBP came in the 31 inning stretch after his May demotion. I'm just not so sure that is who Webster is. I know you have to be careful looking at game logs and dividing it up - you can basically make anyone look either good or bad doing this, but I think there is a reasonable working theory in this case that this stretch (or his post demotion performance) is not representative of the player Webster will be going forward. I'm hopeful that the player Webster is is represented in his last 8 starts in AAA: 40.2 IP 28 H 46 K 12 BB (2 HBP) I guess we'll have to see.
|
|
|
Post by c00lryan on Jan 5, 2014 14:26:59 GMT -5
Fenway, not sure if that was directed at my post, but my point was: Webster's only been focusing exclusively on pitching since 2008 (where he threw a grand total of 18 innings, and then 69 innings in 2009). It's common for relatively new pitchers to struggle with consistency. I didn't mean to imply that he was "new to pitching," but only that he's 23 and has only been pitching for a few years. So, there's still a good amount of time and room to develop consistency. 2008 was a long time ago. In 2008, Hillary Clinton was our future president and Lars Anderson was our future first baseman. I think that after half a decade of professional instruction and nearly 600 minor league innings (not counting winter leagues, where he has struggled this year), to excuse his performance because he's only been pitching "a few years" is a stretch. Regardless of what his experience was prior to pro ball, it's been more than long enough to dismiss that as a meaningful factor. Webster is going into 2014 as a 24 year old pitcher with serious control issues, same as any other 24 year old pitcher with serious control issues. Which is not a death sentence for his career. But in my opinion, to think that he has more potential for development than any other prospect with his age/performance profile because of what he was doing in 2007 is pure wishcasting. So, pitchers who have had 5 years of professional development and 600 innings should have it figured out? I think to excuse his inconsistency (which is all I'm doing) because he's only pitched for 5 years is perfectly reasonable. As you mentioned, I don't necessarily think he has more potential for development compared to any other 24-year old pitcher. All I'm saying is that it takes a long time for pitchers to develop (in some cases, more than 5 years). How often do you see 24 year old pitchers who reached their full potential?
|
|
|
Post by h11233 on Jan 5, 2014 14:46:28 GMT -5
I just went back and read the linked articles in Webster's player page. There's a lot of good stuff in there that applies to the current conversation.
One of the things I found most interesting was in the 4/16/13 article. It says DiSarcina thought he was relying a little too much on his changeup and Webster responded "They weren't hitting it; I would have thrown all changeups if they weren't hitting them."
If he has confidence issues, its certainly not lacking in regard to at least one pitch.
|
|
|