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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2014 15:02:45 GMT -5
I think you have the causal connection backwards if you think his lack of mound presence leads him to not throw the ball over the plate because he's not confident in his stuff or whatever. That's focusing on a symptom while ignoring the cause. Rather, his inconsistent release point and the varying movement on his pitches makes it difficult for him to command his pitches, and his improvements have to come more from the physical/kinetic side than the psychological side. It's not that he doesn't want to throw his pitches over the zone; it's that he can't. His two-seamer in particular is so inconsistent-- sometimes it has such extreme lateral movement that if he wants to throw it over the plate, he has to aim it at a LHH's ribs. But if he does that, sometimes the movement isn't there and the pitch goes way inside or hits a guy (his HBP numbers were really high for a non-knuckleballer). Perhaps, but a lot of guys lose their release point from time to time, but some get it right back right away while others don't. It's hard to know if that is mental or physical. I'm sure it varies per individual. I tend to lean more to the mental affecting the physical but at the end of the day, what does it matter if Webster struggles mechanically because of his mind or something else? The bottom line is he's got to fix it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 5, 2014 16:28:52 GMT -5
2008 was a long time ago. In 2008, Hillary Clinton was our future president and Lars Anderson was our future first baseman. I think that after half a decade of professional instruction and nearly 600 minor league innings (not counting winter leagues, where he has struggled this year), to excuse his performance because he's only been pitching "a few years" is a stretch. Regardless of what his experience was prior to pro ball, it's been more than long enough to dismiss that as a meaningful factor. Webster is going into 2014 as a 24 year old pitcher with serious control issues, same as any other 24 year old pitcher with serious control issues. Which is not a death sentence for his career. But in my opinion, to think that he has more potential for development than any other prospect with his age/performance profile because of what he was doing in 2007 is pure wishcasting. So, pitchers who have had 5 years of professional development and 600 innings should have it figured out? I think to excuse his inconsistency (which is all I'm doing) because he's only pitched for 5 years is perfectly reasonable. As you mentioned, I don't necessarily think he has more potential for development compared to any other 24-year old pitcher. All I'm saying is that it takes a long time for pitchers to develop (in some cases, more than 5 years). How often do you see 24 year old pitchers who reached their full potential?Pretty frequently, actually. Often enough for the Giants to have three guys like that in their rotation, for example.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 16:33:37 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects.
I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that.
I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately).
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 16:45:05 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects. I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that. I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately). The Andrew Miller comp doesn't really make sense to me. Seems like a lazy comp of someone who has (sort of) failed due to control problems. Virtually nothing about Miller is similar to Webster. His path is far different, his minor league statistics are far different, he throws with the other hand, he is 4 inches taller. Miller never showed he could miss bats like Webster has and his walk rates were always higher than Websters. He has been overly dependent on his fastball while Webster has leaned to heavily on his change up at times. Miller's height was the biggest reason he couldn't maintain his release point causing him to struggle with his control Webster doesn't have that issue. Oh yeah, did I mention Miller is a lefty?
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 16:53:44 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects. I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that. I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately). The Andrew Miller comp doesn't really make sense to me. Seems like a lazy comp of someone who has (sort of) failed due to control problems. Virtually nothing about Miller is similar to Webster. His path is far different, his minor league statistics are far different, he throws with the other hand, he is 4 inches taller. Andrew never showed he could miss bats like Webster has and his walk rates were always higher than Websters. I think I qualified that comp pretty clearly when I said "a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm." I'm not talking about specifics of wildness, just the potential and hype versus the performance and reality. Allen Webster is fool's gold.* Trade him NOW to the fool who will give you the most in return. *Again, for the haters/Webester-is-my-binkie folks, I desperately wish to be wrong on this evaluation if he stays with the Sox organization.
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Post by jmei on Jan 5, 2014 16:54:41 GMT -5
Also, Barnes is the one with the Wacha comp, not Webster.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 5, 2014 17:11:05 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects. I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that. I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately). How recently did Speier say this, and can you provide a link?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 5, 2014 17:48:07 GMT -5
From my limited look at the guy, when he pitched in Seattle (a bad day with everybody getting hammered including Iwakuma) I'd have to agree with jmei. To me it didn't seem that he had a fully developed pitching motion, and that he had some trouble repeating what he did have.
There aren't many pitchers able to exert the forces on a baseball that Webster can, but he needs control and command. That's the only way he moves forward.
And guidas, Miller is a lousy comp, what with 2 usable pitches. They don't look the same from any angle.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2014 18:18:16 GMT -5
C'mon Guidas not all white people look the same.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 5, 2014 18:25:43 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects. I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that. I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately). How recently did Speier say this, and can you provide a link? I am almost sure Spier said something like that in the podcasts. At the very least he does have top of the rotation stuff.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 5, 2014 18:28:15 GMT -5
How recently did Speier say this, and can you provide a link? I am almost sure Spier said something like that in the podcasts. At the very least he does have top of the rotation stuff. VERY different thing from being a future #1. If there's someone in the industry telling Speier that Webster has future #1 potential, well, he still ranked Owens above him, so....
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 19:08:17 GMT -5
I am almost sure Spier said something like that in the podcasts. At the very least he does have top of the rotation stuff. VERY different thing from being a future #1. If there's someone in the industry telling Speier that Webster has future #1 potential, well, he still ranked Owens above him, so.... I believe I did hear it in the podcast with Calis where he said it, and, what stuck in my head was a phrase that, if not verbatim, was paraphrased, "Other GMs are higher on him than the Sox." Let me see if it was on the web in print form as well.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 19:10:54 GMT -5
C'mon Guidas not all white people look the same. Now you tell me...
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 19:21:38 GMT -5
I think this guy is an Andrew Miller type - a pitcher a lot of people are convinced will be a #1 starter, but who ultimately will be a pen arm. Someone may fix Webster but - as Speier said recently - if many teams still consider him the #1 starter-type who is near MLB ready, I would sell as high as I could on this guy if someone is dumb enough to give you the kind of return you'd expect on a #1 starting pitcher prospect. I have been praying that Miami loves him and he becomes the cornerstone of a package for Giancarlo Stanton, that way the Sox would only have to give up 2-3 other good prospects. I would move him soon for the best package I could get before other teams stop drooling and start seeing his best case comp is not Michael Wacha but rather Daniel Bard, if that. I say that as I have said before on Webster, hoping I am very, very wrong (unless they trade him, of course - then I hope he goes all Jobba implosion immediately). How recently did Speier say this, and can you provide a link? Also this from the post list chat: From Speier's chat regarding Allen Webster: Alex Speier: Answers were mixed as to whether evaluators would rather have Webster or Owens. I feel like Webster's standing (relative to Owens) might be greater in the industry as a whole than within the Sox organization…
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 19:26:24 GMT -5
From my limited look at the guy, when he pitched in Seattle (a bad day with everybody getting hammered including Iwakuma) I'd have to agree with jmei. To me it didn't seem that he had a fully developed pitching motion, and that he had some trouble repeating what he did have. There aren't many pitchers able to exert the forces on a baseball that Webster can, but he needs control and command. That's the only way he moves forward.And guidas, Miller is a lousy comp, what with 2 usable pitches. They don't look the same from any angle. I completely agree with this, and in fact think they should have Webster pitch exclusively out of the stretch going forward. 1) Fewer moving parts so it may be easier to replicate motion and release point. 2) Because, until he gains more control, he's going to be doing a lot of it anyway.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 19:54:40 GMT -5
From my limited look at the guy, when he pitched in Seattle (a bad day with everybody getting hammered including Iwakuma) I'd have to agree with jmei. To me it didn't seem that he had a fully developed pitching motion, and that he had some trouble repeating what he did have. There aren't many pitchers able to exert the forces on a baseball that Webster can, but he needs control and command. That's the only way he moves forward.And guidas, Miller is a lousy comp, what with 2 usable pitches. They don't look the same from any angle. I completely agree with this, and in fact think they should have Webster pitch exclusively out of the stretch going forward. 1) Fewer moving parts so it may be easier to replicate motion and release point. 2) Because, until he gains more control, he's going to be doing a lot of it anyway. I think your image of Webster is that of your typical all-stuff, no-control pitcher but that really isn't who he is. First, the idea that he has a lot of base runners is incorrect. His WHIP was only 1.09. Part of that is BABIP luck, but some of it is most certainly his hard-breaking stuff that induces a lot of ground balls (49.6% GB% - would be top 15 in MLB). Also, while his walk rate is his biggest opportunity for improvement, it is NOT the unworkable albatross that you make it out to be. He had a 9.9% BB%. Felix Doubront had a 10.1% BB% for instance, and that was with a 19.7% K%. If Webster can sustain a high K% he can be a successful starting pitcher even with a 9-10% BB%... Think Justin Masterson who had a 24.3% K% this year with a 9.5% BB% with strong ground ball tendencies - or Gio Gonzalez or Ubaldo Jimenez or CJ Wilson. It is also not uncommon for guys with high walk rates in the high minors to show drastic improvement in the bigs. Just look at the top pitchers this year: Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, David Price, Homer Bailey, Jordan Zimmerman, Mike Minor - these guys all had similar walk rates for long stretches in the high minors. If you look down the list of top pitchers, it is actually extremely common for them to not have good walk rates in the high minors. We're not talking about Andrew Miller-esque walk rates here. They are below average, but not a disaster by any stretch. EDIT: Other pitchers with high walk rates for stretches in the high minors: Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Bartolo Colon, Cole Hamels, AJ Burnett... I actually think more of the top pitchers had high walk rates (9%+) in the high minors than didn't. Given - this is just a quick scan and could be more scientific, but the track towards being an elite pitcher overwhelming goes through a stretch of high walk rates in the high minors.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 5, 2014 20:05:31 GMT -5
I am almost sure Spier said something like that in the podcasts. At the very least he does have top of the rotation stuff. VERY different thing from being a future #1. If there's someone in the industry telling Speier that Webster has future #1 potential, well, he still ranked Owens above him, so.... Ceiling versus projection issue. Owens has better command and has that plus changeup, but doesn't have the fastball velocity/movement that Webster has. Webster is more likely to be a reliever than Owens is. #4 is still pretty high for Webster and higher than I originally expected him to be.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 5, 2014 20:09:45 GMT -5
A pitcher who fits that description and is in AAA probably isn't a prospect. My understanding too is that it's not really a control issue but a command/fastball straightness issue. You throw a fastball down the middle in the majors it better be moving. If it's not it's going to be hit hard and that was Webster's problem.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 20:18:23 GMT -5
A pitcher who fits that description and is in AAA probably isn't a prospect. My understanding too is that it's not really a control issue but a command/fastball straightness issue. You throw a fastball down the middle in the majors it better be moving. If it's not it's going to be hit hard and that was Webster's problem. I think the issue is more that he hasn't learned to harness the movement on his pitches. Almost as if he has too much movement on his fastball. From his sox prospects.com profile: Fastball sits 92-95 mph and tops out at 98 mph. Shows plus plus sinking movement, with late life.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2014 20:20:41 GMT -5
I completely agree with this, and in fact think they should have Webster pitch exclusively out of the stretch going forward. 1) Fewer moving parts so it may be easier to replicate motion and release point. 2) Because, until he gains more control, he's going to be doing a lot of it anyway. I think your image of Webster is that of your typical all-stuff, no-control pitcher but that really isn't who he is. First, the idea that he has a lot of base runners is incorrect. His WHIP was only 1.09. Part of that is BABIP luck, but some of it is most certainly his hard-breaking stuff that induces a lot of ground balls (49.6% GB% - would be top 15 in MLB). Also, while his walk rate is his biggest opportunity for improvement, it is NOT the unworkable albatross that you make it out to be. He had a 9.9% BB%. Felix Doubront had a 10.1% BB% for instance, and that was with a 19.7% K%. If Webster can sustain a high K% he can be a successful starting pitcher even with a 9-10% BB%... Think Justin Masterson who had a 24.3% K% this year with a 9.5% BB% with strong ground ball tendencies - or Gio Gonzalez or Ubaldo Jimenez or CJ Wilson. It is also not uncommon for guys with high walk rates in the high minors to show drastic improvement in the bigs. Just look at the top pitchers this year: Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, David Price, Homer Bailey, Jordan Zimmerman, Mike Minor - these guys all had similar walk rates for long stretches in the high minors. If you look down the list of top pitchers, it is actually extremely common for them to not have good walk rates in the high minors. We're not talking about Andrew Miller-esque walk rates here. They are below average, but not a disaster by any stretch. EDIT: Other pitchers with high walk rates for stretches in the high minors: Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Bartolo Colon, Cole Hamels, AJ Burnett... I actually think more of the top pitchers had high walk rates (9%+) in the high minors than didn't. Given - this is just a quick scan and could be more scientific, but the track towards being an elite pitcher overwhelming goes through a stretch of high walk rates in the high minors. I saw him 3 times live in the minors and all his televised starts in MLB. I fall in love with his stuff as much as anyone else. Then I see him lose the zone, hit a couple batters, strike someone out, give up some very loud hits and outs then completely unravel. Every start seemed to go more or less that way. If they can fix him, great, but he looks like a mess to me.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2014 20:23:44 GMT -5
A pitcher who fits that description and is in AAA probably isn't a prospect. My understanding too is that it's not really a control issue but a command/fastball straightness issue. You throw a fastball down the middle in the majors it better be moving. If it's not it's going to be hit hard and that was Webster's problem. This is the complete opposite of all reports. Where are you getting this?
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Post by michaelgelbwasser on Jan 5, 2014 20:49:57 GMT -5
I'd like him to start at Pawtucket, and stay there until at least late May.
He needs to develop consistency. That's less likely to happen if he thinks he'll be the first called up if there's an injury.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 5, 2014 22:31:10 GMT -5
A pitcher who fits that description and is in AAA probably isn't a prospect. My understanding too is that it's not really a control issue but a command/fastball straightness issue. You throw a fastball down the middle in the majors it better be moving. If it's not it's going to be hit hard and that was Webster's problem. I think the issue is more that he hasn't learned to harness the movement on his pitches. Almost as if he has too much movement on his fastball. From his sox prospects.com profile: Fastball sits 92-95 mph and tops out at 98 mph. Shows plus plus sinking movement, with late life.Right it's more of a consistency issue. As we learned in the World Series, a sinking fastball that doesn't sink ends up in the seats. It's a devastating almost unhittable pitch especially when it's thrown in the mid 90s, but you can't make mistakes with it in the middle of the zone. A good example of a pitcher who threw this pitch was Kevin Brown, so that tells you how good Webster could be if he puts it all together.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 5, 2014 22:35:10 GMT -5
A pitcher who fits that description and is in AAA probably isn't a prospect. My understanding too is that it's not really a control issue but a command/fastball straightness issue. You throw a fastball down the middle in the majors it better be moving. If it's not it's going to be hit hard and that was Webster's problem. This is the complete opposite of all reports. Where are you getting this? Umm I think you are misunderstanding my comment. It's not Webster that isn't a prospect.....but rather a hypothetical AAA pitcher with great stuff who throws it all over the place. A guy like that isn't a prospect. Webster is better than that.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 5, 2014 23:02:59 GMT -5
I think the issue is more that he hasn't learned to harness the movement on his pitches. Almost as if he has too much movement on his fastball. From his sox prospects.com profile: Fastball sits 92-95 mph and tops out at 98 mph. Shows plus plus sinking movement, with late life.Right it's more of a consistency issue. As we learned in the World Series, a sinking fastball that doesn't sink ends up in the seats. It's a devastating almost unhittable pitch especially when it's thrown in the mid 90s, but you can't make mistakes with it in the middle of the zone. A good example of a pitcher who threw this pitch was Kevin Brown, so that tells you how good Webster could be if he puts it all together. When I read his scouting report, Kevin Brown is the comp I think of in terms of potential ceiling. But I suck at comps.
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