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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 24, 2014 5:39:23 GMT -5
It really is quite incredible to see how many of these guys become busts.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2014 7:39:50 GMT -5
To temper the July 2 signing period: I'm not sure what your point is ... that $2m looks like a lot of money to us normal people? During his first 6½ (cost-controlled) seasons, Miguel Cabrera produced 28 WAR. That's $168m in free agent dollars ... more than enough to pay for the entire list you posted.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 24, 2014 8:57:38 GMT -5
If your perspective is that one big hit 11 years ago justifies the negligible results the subsequent years then fine. I just see a lot of wish casting in 16 year olds tools when the next strata of sub 1 million kids like Xander ($500,000) and Gregory Polanco ($150,000) are just as likely to hit it big. I would not count on being the one team to get a Cabrera to try and make up for the otherwise waste if money going to the perceived top end 16 year olds.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 24, 2014 11:23:52 GMT -5
I'd rather they waste the money than hold it and miss out on god knows what. 3-5 million is not going to put a big dent on the wallet of anyone at the Red Sox or MLB.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 24, 2014 11:39:07 GMT -5
stevedillard: your post is the best reason why people should not closely monitor devers.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jun 24, 2014 12:09:43 GMT -5
I'll monitor him. Are my hopes sky high? They aren't super high. I monitor several prospects though. Devers is 17, and who knows where he'll be in 2-4 years. I personally prefer several mid level prospects. If we do sign two prospects for over 1.4 million, I hope they sign several 200k-500k players as well.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2014 12:41:38 GMT -5
If your perspective is that one big hit 11 years ago justifies the negligible results the subsequent years then fine. Economically, it does. As for negligible results in subsequent years, perhaps it's much too early to judge that? Jurickson Profar, for instance, has not been worth his $1.5m yet, but he made it to the bigs at age 20, I think it's reasonable to assume that he will accrue at least 1 career WAR and therefore garner a return more than 4 times his signing bonus. Oh, if that's your argument... sure, it's possible. But I would offer that the market is perhaps not as transparent and arbitrage-free as one would like. Could any team have signed Xander for $500,001, or did the Sox expend resources to put themselves in a position to sign him that other teams didn't have?
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2014 12:52:21 GMT -5
But I would offer that the market is perhaps not as transparent and arbitrage-free as one would like. Could any team have signed Xander for $500,001, or did the Sox expend resources to put themselves in a position to sign him that other teams didn't have? Indeed, we know for a fact that the Red Sox signed Bogaerts not because they were necessarily the highest bidders but because they got to him first:
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 30, 2014 8:34:04 GMT -5
BA released their list of the top 30 international prospects for July 2: #4 - Espinoza #11 - Acosta (#14 - Ynoa) www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-list/Badler notes that the top four players (Rondon, De Leon, B. Hernandez, and Espinoza) are the consensus top tier players and everyone else could be ranked differently depending on who you talk to. Also, for reference, the Yankees are tied to: #2 - De Leon #6 - Gomez #7 - W. Garcia #9 - D. Garcia #16 - Flames #19 - Park (#20 - Torres) #22 - Amundaray #23 - Emery #24 - Castillo #28 - Arias
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2014 8:37:46 GMT -5
With a note that "the top four players on this list earned widespread praise and separated themselves as the best players in the class."
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 30, 2014 8:53:16 GMT -5
BA released their list of the top 30 international prospects for July 2: #4 - Espinoza #11 - Acosta (#14 - Ynoa) www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-list/Badler notes that the top four players (Rondon, De Leon, B. Hernandez, and Espinoza) are the consensus top tier players and everyone else could be ranked differently depending on who you talk to. Also, for reference, the Yankees are tied to: #2 - De Leon #6 - Gomez #7 - W. Garcia #9 - D. Garcia #16 - Flames #19 - Park (#20 - Torres) #22 - Amundaray #23 - Emery #24 - Castillo #28 - Arias Hilarious. Yankees will be the ones that make something happen with an international draft. I bet they have to overpay a lot to get that many.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 30, 2014 9:28:12 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 15m
Some other good arms, but best combo of stuff and feel RT @beisbolsblog Is Espinoza the best international pitching prospect by a mile?
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 30, 2014 10:40:47 GMT -5
But I would offer that the market is perhaps not as transparent and arbitrage-free as one would like. Could any team have signed Xander for $500,001, or did the Sox expend resources to put themselves in a position to sign him that other teams didn't have? Indeed, we know for a fact that the Red Sox signed Bogaerts not because they were necessarily the highest bidders but because they got there first.Either way, the point is that even after he became known and on the cusp of July 2, Xander was not viewed as a top 30 signing. www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2009/268478.htmlIf anything, his story speaks to the lack of much info from which to draw the top 30 list, and the many stories of how guys are missed. So, it feels nice to "win" by getting the top pitcher on the list, or 12 of the top 30, but history is showing us that the win is fleeting, and that the best way to get the best value seems to be through volume on the 100k to 500k players outside of the top 30.
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Jun 30, 2014 10:43:15 GMT -5
Badler's top ranked pitcher and 3 of his top 4 ranked pitchers.
Should be fun to follow.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 30, 2014 13:24:54 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel has a lot of good info about July 2. Nothing new on the Red Sox front other than this: He predicts Ynoa to the Padres. sbb.scout.com/story/1415758
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 30, 2014 13:34:43 GMT -5
Geez, Espinoza was sitting 84 last year back in those youtube videos posted earlier. That's crazy. How do you project 84-97 jump from age 15 to 16?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 30, 2014 13:48:17 GMT -5
Note this from Matt Garrioch www.minorleagueball.com/2014/6/30/5855922/the-difficulty-of-evaluating-international-players"As for me, some of the information with these guys is flat out lied about. While scouts see these guys, I don't get that for all of them. I'll use Anderson Espinoza as my example. Don't get me wrong, I really like him as a prospect but there is some misinformation out there. If you go to MLB.com and look at their list, Espinoza is 10th on their list. He is a 5'10, 150 LB teenager that gets a Pedro Martinez comp dropped on him. It also says his "fastball hovers in the 91 to 93 mph range" but that is not even close to accurate.((has link to that older vid)) ...I saw [1st pick Brady] Aiken at Perfect Game National last year sitting 88-90 and hitting 92. He was just shy of being 17 ... This spring he was 92-95 and touching 97. ... Aiken pitched at PG Junior National in 2012 and was 87-88 with a 76 MPH curveball and 80 MPH change. At the Area Code Games that August, he was 85-87 with a 74 MPH curve and 77 MPH change. As a comparison, Anderson Espinoza sits 85-87, has a 70-72 MPH breaker and a 76-78 MPH change.Does that mean Espinoza will be hitting 97 in two years? Someone will have to make a seven figure decision on whether that he will or won't within the next month or so, if not the next week. In my opinion, he's worth whatever he gets but like any 16 year old throwing 87, it's a gamble."
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 30, 2014 14:33:07 GMT -5
stevedillard: your post is the best reason why people should not closely monitor devers. I don't get your logic. Because many of the high priced international players have busted out, Rafael Devers will most likely bust out as well and hence shouldn't be monitored by fans? That seems a little outrageous in my view. Devers is unique because as a 17 year old he has shown plate discipline and enough talent to play in a complex league. How many high school juniors are good enough to play in a complex league? Not many. If Devers were American we'd be talking about him as a potential #1 pick next spring. He doesn't have the athleticism of Mike Cameron's son, who looks like the most likely #1 right now, but a young advanced high school bat like that would be hard to pass up and wouldn't get out of the top ten. Those types of players are monitored and monitored closely.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 30, 2014 18:52:23 GMT -5
Note this from Matt Garrioch www.minorleagueball.com/2014/6/30/5855922/the-difficulty-of-evaluating-international-players"As for me, some of the information with these guys is flat out lied about. While scouts see these guys, I don't get that for all of them. I'll use Anderson Espinoza as my example. Don't get me wrong, I really like him as a prospect but there is some misinformation out there. If you go to MLB.com and look at their list, Espinoza is 10th on their list. He is a 5'10, 150 LB teenager that gets a Pedro Martinez comp dropped on him. It also says his "fastball hovers in the 91 to 93 mph range" but that is not even close to accurate.((has link to that older vid)) Shouldn't be making assumptions based on YouTube videos let alone one over a year old with guy barely 15. I posted the report from Venezuela which had quotes from a scout who had had seen in December, much closer than the date of the video, where he was already 92-93. From that report we also know that he went through rigorous training program to enhanced his body. So it's not out of line that he would go from 87 to 93.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 1, 2014 6:42:09 GMT -5
Also, for reference, the Yankees are tied to: #2 - De Leon #6 - Gomez #7 - W. Garcia #9 - D. Garcia #16 - Flames#19 - Park (#20 - Torres) #22 - Amundaray #23 - Emery #24 - Castillo #28 - Arias Please tell me he is a pitcher.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 1, 2014 6:47:00 GMT -5
It really is quite incredible to see how many of these guys become busts. Not as incredible as it is to look back at past first rounds in the amateur draft, considering how much more projection is involved with 16 year olds as compared even to high school kids let alone college players.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 1, 2014 8:11:21 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 1, 2014 11:34:08 GMT -5
I hope there are a number of other interesting guys that we're tied to....even outside of the top 30. If we're going to 'blow past' our spending cap and not be able to sign a guy at >300k for two years, I sure hope there are more than two guys we really like. If you're going to go past and suffer the consequences....then go way past the limits (i.e. nab 10 top tier guys as the Yanks are rumored to be doing).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 1, 2014 11:44:07 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 1, 2014 12:10:22 GMT -5
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