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Jan 2014-June 2015 International Signings
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Post by suttree on Jul 3, 2014 16:08:17 GMT -5
This is from the mlb.com site: According to industry sources, New York agreed to terms with several highly regarded international prospects, including shortstop Dermis Garcia, ranked No. 1 on MLB.com's Top 30 International Prospects list for a $3 million signing bonus, along with Dominican third baseman Nelson Gomez (ranked No. 2) for $2.25 million, Dominican outfielder Juan DeLeon (No. 5) for $2 million, Venezuelan outfielders Jonathan Amundaray (No. 7) for $1.5 million and Antonio Arias (No. 9) for $800,000. Additionally, sources indicate the Yankees also agreed to terms with Korean shortstop Hyo-Jun Park, ranked No. 13, for $1.1 million, along with Venezuelan shortstops Wilkerman Garcia (No. 14) for $1.35 million and Diego Castillo (No. 16) for $750,000. The Yankees also agreed to terms with Venezuelan catcher Miguel Flames, ranked No. 25, for $1 million, and they added outfielder Frederick Cuevas from the Dominican Republic for $300,000. In all, the Yankees spent more than $14 million on those players alone. The Yankees outfoxed us on this one. If you're gonna blow it up, might as well go BIG. Unless they change the rules you can bank on someone doing the same thing each of the next two years, and it will be that much more tempting without the Sox or Yanks to outbid.
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Post by lennsakata on Jul 3, 2014 16:45:54 GMT -5
Given that it's looking like we will have 3-4 million allocated to 2015s international free agency pool and the limitation of $300k/player they trades till rade that additional money despite the penalties, correct? Would be interesting to see what 1-2 million in bonus pool money could get...probably not a ton but maybe would be cool if they could swap it for a competitive balance pick or more realistically as a part of a bigger package deal.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 3, 2014 16:46:09 GMT -5
I don't think having more money and then spending that money can be classified as "outfoxing" anyone. The Yankees outspent the Red Sox (and Dodgers, and Angels, and everyone else) sure, but we won't know if they spent that money wisely for at least three to five years.
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Jul 3, 2014 16:46:18 GMT -5
With the penalties, if the Yankees paid $14M and their limit was just over $2M, aren't they paying almost $26M, just for those guys? and double for everyone else?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 3, 2014 17:41:11 GMT -5
We always hear that signings are based on the relationships built with a team. Players agree to contracts long before they are eligible to sign. Is it possible players delay their signing by a year in order to join a certain team?
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Post by jmei on Jul 3, 2014 17:43:12 GMT -5
We always hear that signings are based on the relationships built with a team. Players agree to contracts long before they are eligible to sign. Is it possible players delay their signing by a year in order to join a certain team? No, because the time value of money for these guys is very high, and their attachment to a particular team is very low. If you don't see it much in the Rule 4 draft, you'd see it even less in the IFA market.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 3, 2014 17:44:47 GMT -5
Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I cannot find much information on international prospects. What sites should I look at?
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 3, 2014 17:45:33 GMT -5
With the penalties, if the Yankees paid $14M and their limit was just over $2M, aren't they paying almost $26M, just for those guys? and double for everyone else? That's what I come with too. The idea that the Yankees outfoxed us is ludicrous. They just spend a tone more than we did - and everyone else did , ever. I'm (more than) fine with what the Sox did. I think they acquired some top talent.
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Post by jmei on Jul 3, 2014 18:04:33 GMT -5
Two points RE: why didn't they pull a Yankees?
First, there's more to the IFA market than just 16-year-olds on July 2nd. Every year, there are older pop-up guys who emerge over the fall and winter and end up signing for decent cash after July. Think Xander Bogaerts or Daniel McGrath or Simon Mercedes or Vic Acosta, all of which signed after they turned 16 and later than July. If the Red Sox want to continue spending well past their pool amount, they still have the opportunity to do so. Most of the seven-figure guys do sign on July 2nd, but there are plenty of guys with plenty of potential that are still out there. Plus, as time passes, most of the other teams will have spent most of their IFA pool, which means the Sox have a competitive advantage in terms of being able to outbid them.
Second, even after they've decided to blow past the pool limit, there's still a price at which it becomes dumb to sign any given prospect. It's just bad business to offer $1m to a guy who you think is really only worth $200K, even in an uncapped world. Sure, if there are guys out there with price tags that you think are worth it, go grab them. But if there aren't, don't just spend for spending's sake.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 3, 2014 20:19:34 GMT -5
Two points RE: why didn't they pull a Yankees? First, there's more to the IFA market than just 16-year-olds on July 2nd. Every year, there are older pop-up guys who emerge over the fall and winter and end up signing for decent cash after July. Think Xander Bogaerts or Daniel McGrath or Simon Mercedes or Vic Acosta, all of which signed after they turned 16 and later than July. If the Red Sox want to continue spending well past their pool amount, they still have the opportunity to do so. Most of the seven-figure guys do sign on July 2nd, but there are plenty of guys with plenty of potential that are still out there. Plus, as time passes, most of the other teams will have spent most of their IFA pool, which means the Sox have a competitive advantage in terms of being able to outbid them. Second, even after they've decided to blow past the pool limit, there's still a price at which it becomes dumb to sign any given prospect. It's just bad business to offer $1m to a guy who you think is really only worth $200K, even in an uncapped world. Sure, if there are guys out there with price tags that you think are worth it, go grab them. But if there aren't, don't just spend for spending's sake. Bravo, sir! Well said! Just because the Red Sox COULD have spent more money, doesn't necessarily mean they SHOULD have. That is how markets get out of whack (for lack of a better term).
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 3, 2014 20:37:18 GMT -5
This is the place where aping the MFY makes the least sense. That's saying a lot since their overall business plan stinks, as mirrored in their desolate farm system.
The projections for a decent but by no means great crop of internationals is the equivalent of piloting your ouiji board blindfolded. Limiting your selections to those players you have at least a little feel for is crucial. The Sox did just that.
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Post by nexus on Jul 3, 2014 22:18:52 GMT -5
They're not great, but they have built a solid foundation this year with the emergence of Refsynder and nice strides made by the 2013 1st round trio. Severino would be the 2nd best pitcher in the Red Sox system behind Owens. Add all of the talent they just signed and I'd say they're in the middle of the pack. You don't load up on 16 year olds and jump to the middle of the pack. Devers started the season as our 18th ranked prospect. He's rising because of his performance. But throwing massive money at such speculative guys isn't going to improve your system until they've performed for a season. It's a bottom-heavy perspective that no longer translates in the rankings. Well, again, I am more impressed with the core they now have in Judge, Clarkin, Severino, Refsynder, Jagielo, and Sanchez. I think they all have a chance to be impact talent. Some others to a lesser degree, but the guys above are enough to push the system higher compared to a year ago. And I fail to understand the rationale where ranking Devers 18th on a website should be considered sound enough reasoning or evidence as to why 16 year olds the Yankees signed are either disqualified due to age/rawness or non-factors when assessing their system as a whole. I mean, sure, every single guy may turn out to be a batboy in 4 years, but it's hard to argue against the scouting reports which suggest their system improved today.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 3, 2014 23:24:17 GMT -5
The Rangers spent ~15M in bonuses in 2011 too, which is what the Yankees will or have spent so far only that they'll probably have to pay another ~15M in penalties.
Off the top of my head their top signing haven't been too hot, for the hype and the bonus they got. Actually the guy that signed for one of the lower bonuses out of that class, Rogued Odor, is the only guy providing value right now. Now those guys might still be good but with the track record of top IFAs I wouldn't bank on it.
I understand the Yankees, they needed to do something and hopefully for them one or two of these guys show some flashes and they can become trade pieces, which is what they've historically done with their IFAs.
Now I hope that people understand that you just can't spend money and everything will be alright. The Red Sox have had a decent track record since they revamped the international department. Eddie Romero and Manny Nanita have a decent process I'd say. Devers, Margot, Rijo among other have shown flashes and there are some interesting low-bonus guys in the lower levels, like Javier Guerra. Yes we don't know if any of these guys will make it to the big leagues but for IFAs that's a very decent track record, probably one of the better ones around the league over the last 3/4 years which is what these group have been around. I'd trust them and what they are doing, especially when we don't know much about these players to be advocating throwing money left and right.
Last but no least the purpose of going over is not just for July 2. There are guys that become elegible later, there are guys that improve greatly and become better prospects than the guys getting big bonuses today, there are guys tha pop-up after getting suspended or their initial deals voided like the former Carlos Matias and Simon Mercedes, guys that are unknown to us now but are very good, XB.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 3, 2014 23:28:04 GMT -5
You don't load up on 16 year olds and jump to the middle of the pack. Devers started the season as our 18th ranked prospect. He's rising because of his performance. But throwing massive money at such speculative guys isn't going to improve your system until they've performed for a season. It's a bottom-heavy perspective that no longer translates in the rankings. Well, again, I am more impressed with the core they now have in Judge, Clarkin, Severino, Refsynder, Jagielo, and Sanchez. I think they all have a chance to be impact talent. Some others to a lesser degree, but the guys above are enough to push the system higher compared to a year ago. And I fail to understand the rationale where ranking Devers 18th on a website should be considered sound enough reasoning or evidence as to why 16 year olds the Yankees signed are either disqualified due to age/rawness or non-factors when assessing their system as a whole. I mean, sure, every single guy may turn out to be a batboy in 4 years, but it's hard to argue against the scouting reports which suggest their system improved today. Devers didn't get that highly ranked until he showed up at Fall Insrux where evaluators had a chance to see him, prior to that he was a high pedigree signing, arguably the top IFA last year. The fact that he was 'only' ranked #18 is pretty much an argument against your point of view. I generally don't disagree that the MFY future looks a little brighter than during the off season but, almost all of the bright spots you mention are still in A ball. A ball players don't significantly alter the team rankings. The two best top level prospects are somewhat of a trade-off. On the one hand, Refsnyder has had an outstanding year, on the other, Sanchez, the only top 100 prospect the Yankees had, now has a disciplinary benching (work ethic) in 2014 to go along with a history of issues. He's a catcher and no longer even gets mentioned when prospect analysts compare the top catchers like the recent debate over Swihart being the top catching prospect. Intangibles are considered important to catching prospects and I'm pretty sure Sanchez trade value took a giant dump. Their season entering #2 prospect, Mason Williams is hitting .216 with a sub .600 OPS at Trenton, their #3 Heathcott who has a history of injuries has played 9 games in 2014. #4 Jagiolo is a third baseman that profiles as a first baseman,#5 Austin is a decent enough right fielder (albeit slow) but hasn't shown the bat at AA that he did in the lower minors. They didn't draft until the 2nd round and took a college reliever. Bichette, Jagiolo, Bird and O'Brien (optimistic) all profile as first baseman. These are not things that evaluators rank highly. I just don't see them cracking the top 20. Mid 20's is more likely than mid teens. ADD: To be fair, I also don't see Espinoza or Acosta as having much of an impact of the Red Sox rankings until they prove themselves.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 4, 2014 6:33:21 GMT -5
Really good discussion in this thread. Someone may have made this point already but the money the Red Sox used to spend in the Rule 4 but can't now due to restrictions has to go somewhere. Not saying IFA is the only way to spend it, but given the state of Major Leauge free agency I think this is a logical development (also we're only talking about what, 5-8 million?). That doesn't really explain NYY who weren't known for going overslot, but of course they've always been active internationally.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 4, 2014 7:11:29 GMT -5
Thinking about teams like the Red Sox and MFYs which will be limited to signing any one individual player up to $ 300 k for the next two years given that they exceeded their assigned bonus allotment. Ben Badler wrote this article last year about how teams either have or could work around these restrictions by signing lesser talented players with the same trainer for higher bonuses which could then be funneled back to more talented players with the same agent. It would be difficult for MLB to prove if they thought a team has done this. www.baseballamerica.com/international/how-teams-can-stretch-their-international-budgets/
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Post by suttree on Jul 4, 2014 8:09:29 GMT -5
Second, even after they've decided to blow past the pool limit, there's still a price at which it becomes dumb to sign any given prospect. It's just bad business to offer $1m to a guy who you think is really only worth $200K, even in an uncapped world. Sure, if there are guys out there with price tags that you think are worth it, go grab them. But if there aren't, don't just spend for spending's sake. A couple things: 1. I like this site because everyone seems very knowledgeable about baseball and prospects, certainly more so than I am in many cases. 2. Then I come across a lot of group think and such extreme bias, that it makes me wonder how such smart people can be so blinded by their loyalty to the Red Sox. The Red Sox DID pull a Yankees, they just didn't spend as much. How is that so hard to see? They blew past the limit and will incur the same penalty. In the end the Yankees will have spent something like $20MM compared to our 6 or 7. The Yankees got the 1st and 2nd most highly regarded international prospects, along with some other top 10 guys. This wasn't just spending for spending's sake, this is coveted talent. If the Red Sox had spent as much I am sure you would have faith that they made a wise decision, but because the Yankees did it, well it must be foolhardy. If even one of the guys the Yankees signed contributes to the club it will be worth the $20MM since pre-arb players are indentured servants.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 4, 2014 8:20:33 GMT -5
Moot point in every regard.. MiLB system in Boston isn't barren. Maybe it's not in great shape at the lower levels (A- down) but is still in comparable to same shape as is NY's. Boston had no need to spend 20m on unproven and virtually unscouted 16-17YO kids, then pay another 18m in penalties.
That is asking for it and was done by NY because they ignored their system for so many years previously, something Boston hasn't done since Lou Gorman was in charge here.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 4, 2014 8:30:34 GMT -5
I personally would have been really excited if the Red Sox spent what the Yankees did. I'm not saying it is the wisest financial decision, but who cares? There isn't any reason to believe the international expenditures affect the major league or draft budgets. The low minors would be a blast to follow in the coming years - even if the majority of the guys became busts.
With that said, I am very interested to see how it ends up working out.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 4, 2014 8:32:40 GMT -5
Distinguishing between IFA and drafts, the Yankees have not ignored their system for many years. They have set the market with
Gary Sánchez $3.0 2009 Yankees Wily Mo Peña $2.4 1998 Yankees Jesus Montero. 16. C. 2006. Yankees. VZA. $1.650.000 Jackson Melian. 16. OF. 1996. Yankees. VZA. $1.600.000 Ricardo Aramboles $1.5 1998 Yankees Leonardo Molina, OF, $1.4 2013 Yankees Kelvin de León $1,1 2007 Yankees
The fact that these guys, like our own Vinicio ($1.9) Almanzar ($1.5) and countless guys like engel Beltre ($700k) and Tejeda ($600K) and Luis Soto ($500K) shows that the problem is not the failure to invest, but that the investment stinks.
We can't laugh at them for buying 15 of the top 30, and then get excited at the Sox spending on Espinoza and Acosta. They're either too risky investments, or good investments. That the Yanks made more of them should't change your view of whether they are good investments.
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Post by jmei on Jul 4, 2014 9:17:36 GMT -5
The Red Sox DID pull a Yankees, they just didn't spend as much. How is that so hard to see? They blew past the limit and will incur the same penalty. In the end the Yankees will have spent something like $20MM compared to our 6 or 7. The Yankees got the 1st and 2nd most highly regarded international prospects, along with some other top 10 guys. This wasn't just spending for spending's sake, this is coveted talent. If the Red Sox had spent as much I am sure you would have faith that they made a wise decision, but because the Yankees did it, well it must be foolhardy. If even one of the guys the Yankees signed contributes to the club it will be worth the $20MM since pre-arb players are indentured servants. You're misreading my point. Even if you're no longer capped, you should still only sign those players who you think are worth the money. It is fair to criticize the front office for not planning ahead and realizing that once they were going to blow past the cap, they needed to double-down and sign every IFA who was going to be worth his bonus. But now that we're already in this situation where most of the top guys are already signed, it makes no sense to keep spending on guys who aren't worth it.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 4, 2014 9:25:53 GMT -5
And again, most of these signings are based on relationships. If we didn't have much of a relationship with the players and/or trainers on these top guys the Yankees signed, we weren't going to get the them signed, regardless (maybe if we doubled their bonus amount, but that would be stupid). We signed the guys we had relationships with (other than maybe Ynoa). I think the Sox did well. Just because the Yankees spent more doesn't mean the Sox were outfoxed, they were outspent. Simple as that. We'll see who ends with the better prospects/pro players from this in about 5-7 years.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 4, 2014 9:55:32 GMT -5
This is one of the better discussions had on this site from my perspective. It is hard to disagree with anything said. At the end of the day though the Yankees did what the Yankees do...borne out of a greater sense of urgency, if not desperation, they threw money at the issue. They have it, they used it. Monetary penalties are not a deterrent or equalizer. If one throws enough money at enough 'prospects', sooner or later the odds are with you.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 4, 2014 10:56:33 GMT -5
That works pretty good when being selective with the names, only left out was Hanley Ramirez, Junichi Tazawa, Anibal Sanchez. Bogaerts.
Got to name them all, even when it hurts your argument ya know.
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Post by suttree on Jul 4, 2014 11:21:01 GMT -5
The Red Sox DID pull a Yankees, they just didn't spend as much. How is that so hard to see? They blew past the limit and will incur the same penalty. In the end the Yankees will have spent something like $20MM compared to our 6 or 7. The Yankees got the 1st and 2nd most highly regarded international prospects, along with some other top 10 guys. This wasn't just spending for spending's sake, this is coveted talent. If the Red Sox had spent as much I am sure you would have faith that they made a wise decision, but because the Yankees did it, well it must be foolhardy. If even one of the guys the Yankees signed contributes to the club it will be worth the $20MM since pre-arb players are indentured servants. You're misreading my point. Even if you're no longer capped, you should still only sign those players who you think are worth the money. It is fair to criticize the front office for not planning ahead and realizing that once they were going to blow past the cap, they needed to double-down and sign every IFA who was going to be worth his bonus. But now that we're already in this situation where most of the top guys are already signed, it makes no sense to keep spending on guys who aren't worth it. I wouldn't say I am criticizing the Red Sox for not thinking ahead, as much as I am curious why they didn't. If you are going to blow up the international signing, you do it the way the Yankees did. That doesn't mean the Red Sox should be throwing money at the left overs right now, although you and others seemed to indicate (in a rather contradictory way) that maybe they are saving money for just that purpose. Even with a high fail rate, simply by nabbing half of the top 10 guys gives you pretty good odds to get something of value. I can't think of any other way to spend $20MM with that much potential upside. I'm more interested to know why the Red Sox would blow past the limit, incur penalties, and not get at least 3 or 4 top 10 guys in the process.
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