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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 21, 2014 22:15:42 GMT -5
So...when does the top-10 DH list come out? I think it follows on the same day as the top 10 mascots. We'll be quite busy trying to analyze two lists simultaneously. Wally is in the running but clearly not likely to be in the elite group. |
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 22, 2014 12:18:28 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer.
Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60
Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 22, 2014 12:45:05 GMT -5
One of the most interesting parts of these top 10 lists is seeing the impressive Sox prospect depth in another way. We are represented in the top 10 at every position (safe assumption that we'll see Cecchini and JBJ the next couple days) except RHP, and that's more a reflection of the depth of RHP pitchers than a knock on our prospects there (considering that we'll likely see one of our RHP on the top 100). They've named 10 guys each at most positions, where there's one regular per ball club. And 10 outfielders, even though there are three regulars per ball club. And 20 pitchers, even though there are six regulars per ball club (including the closer, most of whom were starting pitchers as prospects). They should do thirty outfielders, forty RHP, and 20 LHP. As has been pointed out, there's also an argument for doing a top 20 corner infielders list rather than separate top 10's for 1B and 3B. |
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 22, 2014 12:56:06 GMT -5
Here's jbj ..."6. Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox: Part of two College World Series championship teams at South Carolina, Bradley Jr. earned a World Series ring as a rookie with the Red Sox after surprisingly making their Opening Day roster. A superb center fielder, he'll be a defensive upgrade over Jacoby Ellsbury, who left via free agency. Bradley Jr. is also an on-base machine who likely will be better than Ellsbury in that regard, too."
Better obp in2014 than Ellsbury would be sweet.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 22, 2014 14:10:23 GMT -5
One of the most interesting parts of these top 10 lists is seeing the impressive Sox prospect depth in another way. We are represented in the top 10 at every position (safe assumption that we'll see Cecchini and JBJ the next couple days) except RHP, and that's more a reflection of the depth of RHP pitchers than a knock on our prospects there (considering that we'll likely see one of our RHP on the top 100). They've named 10 guys each at most positions, where there's one regular per ball club. And 10 outfielders, even though there are three regulars per ball club. And 20 pitchers, even though there are six regulars per ball club (including the closer, most of whom were starting pitchers as prospects). They should do thirty outfielders, forty RHP, and 20 LHP. As has been pointed out, there's also an argument for doing a top 20 corner infielders list rather than separate top 10's for 1B and 3B. The way it's setup now, they may as well have a top 10 utility IF list too. |
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Post by ramireja on Jan 22, 2014 14:21:36 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer. Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60 Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated? I'm not sure if he is overrated necessarily, I think he is just hard to compare to others because he has a grade 80 tool without much else. Therefore, for his speed to play up, he will need to get on base at a decent clip. That being said, 80+ (dare I say 100) stolen bases is incredibly value, but he can't be a hack with the bat. I suppose there is more bust potential than say Bradley, who has at least average tools across the board with potentially elite defense and above average on base skills. That should give Bradley a relatively high floor. |
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jan 22, 2014 15:23:07 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer. Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60 Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated? I think Hamilton and Tavares are both overrated. I can't remember too many guys who have such a low OBP comparative to their average who had that much success. If he doesn't hit .300, you're probably looking at a sub .330 OBP player who has less power and defense than someone like Adam Jones. The one tool always ignored in any list is plate discipline. This is why I think Cechhini or Nava are often criminally underrated and players like Tavares are overrated. |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 22, 2014 15:31:10 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer. Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60 Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated? I think Hamilton and Tavares are both overrated. I can't remember too many guys who have such a low OBP comparative to their average who had that much success. If he doesn't hit .300, you're probably looking at a sub .330 OBP player who has less power and defense than someone like Adam Jones. The one tool always ignored in any list is plate discipline. This is why I think Cechhini or Nava are often criminally underrated and players like Tavares are overrated. I agree on Hamilton, but Taveras is going to be a beast. He walked 7.9% of the time and struck out 10.5% of the time in AA. With a strikeout rate that low, he can be a perennial batting champion. It takes a really unique player to do that with plus power. Keep in mind that its not worth putting much stock in his AAA numbers as he battled injuries all year. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 22, 2014 15:35:48 GMT -5
I never noticed that Buxton is supposed to be the next Willie Mays. That's a crazy scouting report.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jan 22, 2014 15:43:58 GMT -5
I think Hamilton and Tavares are both overrated. I can't remember too many guys who have such a low OBP comparative to their average who had that much success. If he doesn't hit .300, you're probably looking at a sub .330 OBP player who has less power and defense than someone like Adam Jones. The one tool always ignored in any list is plate discipline. This is why I think Cechhini or Nava are often criminally underrated and players like Tavares are overrated. I agree on Hamilton, but Taveras is going to be a beast. He walked 7.9% of the time and struck out 10.5% of the time in AA. With a strikeout rate that low, he can be a perennial batting champion. It takes a really unique player to do that with plus power. Keep in mind that its not worth putting much stock in his AAA numbers as he battled injuries all year. To me he seems like Manny Machado without the defense, but a better average. That's a decent player, but not the star that he's projected to be. I think both were somewhat rushed, which hurt their plate discipline. It's tough to be that good with an OBP that's only 30-40 points higher than your average because if you struggle with the bat at any point then you aren't a good player. |
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Post by klostrophobic on Jan 22, 2014 15:49:41 GMT -5
Billy Hamilton's run tool is arguably farther to the right of the bell-curve than any other single tool from any other player in baseball. Is there value in a guy who can be a pure pinch-runner? I mean, get this dude on base 100 times a year and he might rip off 50 steals. He had 13 steals in 13 games last year and he only played 3 full games. May have miscounted but he was on base 16 times and pulled out 13 steals. Give him an 80 run tool and Ellsbury has a 40 relative to that.
I think there is absurd value in this guy, especially if he can steal at a 85%+ rate.
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Post by mainesox on Jan 22, 2014 15:51:08 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer. Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60 Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated? overrated, especially by Mayo. |
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 22, 2014 16:17:55 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer. Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60 Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated? Encouraging hit rating for JBJ. I would have given him 55 hit and 60 arm, but agree with the overall 60 projection. As for Hamilton, I have a lot of doubts regarding his ability to hit well in the majors. It seems to me like he'll be a .240-.275 hitter with next to no charge in his bat. If he's going to struggle to OPS .700, you'd like to see more than just epic speed. The 70+ steals are going to be valuable, but you better hope he develops into a plus center fielder too if you're going to put up him in the lineup everyday. The speed would be great in the leadoff spot, but his failure to even match Hazelbaker's OBP in the IL last year was concerning to say the least. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 22, 2014 16:44:04 GMT -5
Bradley ranked 6th behind Buxton, Taveras, Polanco, Almora and Springer. Hit: 60 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 75 | Overall: 60 Also, am I the only one who thinks Billy Hamilton is terribly overrated? overrated, especially by Mayo. Bill James once observed that players who do one thing extremely well tend to be overrated and players that do a lot of things fairly well tend to be underrated (call it the Rice/Evans rule). And Hamilton only does one thing well, but he does it spectacularly well, maybe better than anyone ever. |
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Post by dewey1972 on Jan 22, 2014 16:48:55 GMT -5
I agree on Hamilton, but Taveras is going to be a beast. He walked 7.9% of the time and struck out 10.5% of the time in AA. With a strikeout rate that low, he can be a perennial batting champion. It takes a really unique player to do that with plus power. Keep in mind that its not worth putting much stock in his AAA numbers as he battled injuries all year. To me he seems like Manny Machado without the defense, but a better average. That's a decent player, but not the star that he's projected to be. I think both were somewhat rushed, which hurt their plate discipline. It's tough to be that good with an OBP that's only 30-40 points higher than your average because if you struggle with the bat at any point then you aren't a good player. Walking 8% of the time while a 20 year old in AA is fine. If he hits the way he has and is expected to hit, there's a good chance his walk rate will rise as he matures and pitchers avoid him in the majors. Soriano and Cano had atrocious walk rates even after they got to the majors, but as they got older their walk rates rose to league average (sometimes a bit above) rates. I really don't think that's going to be an issue. The best hitters in baseball are stars, regardless of position. If he can hit for a high average with a decent walk rate and good power, he'll be a star. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 22, 2014 16:53:07 GMT -5
He's also a Cardinal, so yeah, he'll be amazing.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 17:13:18 GMT -5
I think Hamilton may well end up a decent reserve OF , pinch run guy. His bat is horrible right now but it could get better with more experience. He's going to have to take slapping class. I think there is still a lot of value in that reserve OF / pinch runner role. I'd love to have him cheap for a few years.
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Post by jchang on Jan 22, 2014 17:40:07 GMT -5
My issue with the Top 10 by position is something along the lines of what eric said, except that I would not bother with the exact number, but rather list all the prospects projected to be 60 and above, that is, above average MLB players. Not sure on the prospects graded 55 should be included. Note all 10 RHP and OF are grade 60 or above, but many of the other lists have a number of grade 55 or even 50's. I suppose there are more RHP and OF that are grade 60 and should be included.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2014 22:13:41 GMT -5
Top 100, so far. They are counting down the top 50 live.
57 - Garin Cecchini, 3B (BOS)
61 - Blake Swihart, C (BOS)
62 - Mookie Betts, 2B (BOS)
86 - Matt Barnes, RHP (BOS)
96 - Trey Ball, LHP (BOS)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 23, 2014 22:14:57 GMT -5
Webster at 46
JBJ at 33
Sox will have 9 in the top 100. 7 of the top 62. That's kind of nuts.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 23, 2014 22:16:51 GMT -5
Jonathan Mayo ?@jonathanmayob3 33s
RT What is the ETA for Trey Ball? @04ericstormcrow All ETAs will be on the site, but 2017 for now
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2014 22:17:02 GMT -5
Looks like the Sox will end up with 8 including Owens, JBJ & Xander unless they have Ranaudo or Webster way ahead of what is generally thought.
Interesting sidenote. The top three 2B prospects Wong (58), Odor (59) & Betts (62) are very close.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 23, 2014 22:18:19 GMT -5
Owens at 30.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 23, 2014 22:19:45 GMT -5
talking about Owens…..
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 23, 2014 22:23:12 GMT -5
FWIW the analysis is standard MLB Network. I'll leave that to your interpretations...
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