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Evaluating the 2014 AL East
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 17:04:12 GMT -5
If Jeter and Tex are bad next year also, they probably continue to struggle a lot but they were worthless last year and they didn't have Granderson much either but I think adding Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran may just put some runs on the board for that lineup. Again, look what they had last year and they were in it until near September if i remember correctly.
They are effectively adding Jeter, Tex, McCann, Ellsbury, Beltran and those guys are replacing Jeter with an injury, Tex with an injury, Granderson with an injury, A guy named Wells they just DFAed, a worthless catching situation and now they have also added Tanaka and who knows, maybe Sabathia comes back strong plus any more new signings.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2014 17:11:43 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 22, 2014 17:21:28 GMT -5
lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 17:24:11 GMT -5
Heyman should have put in there that the Yanks need to sign Drew also so that he can continue to get leaks from Boras on a regular basis.
After thinking about it more the Yanks probably do not go to the Garza level on a starter. They probably go cheaper.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 22, 2014 18:04:09 GMT -5
Heyman is smoking something real good if he actually believes that
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 18:34:32 GMT -5
If they have Gardner in LF, Ellsbury in CF, and Beltran in RF, isn't Soriano probably their DH?
They don't need a DH. If they sign Drew and $5 mil starter, a $2 mil reliever, they could probably live with what they have, although I haven't studied their relief situation. That is enough to put them right there in contention with us in my opinion.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jan 22, 2014 18:39:02 GMT -5
Been so busy at work I just had a chance to read this. Will reread all the posts on here later but just looked this up.
In 2016 Yankees will have 145M (per Cots) committed to 7 players: A-Rod, Tex, Tanaka, Ells, McCann, and Beltran. AAV will be higher from A-Rod's contract, and I think also CC. Their farm system does not project to produce much talent in these years. Of the 7, Tanaka will be the only one in his "prime years" with Ellsbury and McCann at the end of theirs.
I still don't think 2014 Yankees are that good. They have high potential players, but are very thin otherwise. They are one or two injury/down year away from being a very bad team.
Also, they are not paying him 22M, they are paying 35.8M with 50% luxury tax and 1/7 of 20M. Lotsa dough.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 22, 2014 19:06:40 GMT -5
Starting pitching is 99.99999999% of baseball, you know.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 22, 2014 19:29:26 GMT -5
The pros and cons of this signing have all been batted around in these posts. This is the one big move they could make, given their poor farm system and the failure/injury of what had been their pitching prospects. In McCann, and Beltran, and with Teixeira back, they have some power and the potential for more. I don't think they'll be at the bottom of the division, and they have a legitimate shot to get back into the playoffs.
But all that comes with a long list of ifs that highlight the risks they're taking: if Teixeira, Jeter, Beltran, Roberts and even Ellsbury hold together, if Sabathia can find the missing 3 mph on his fastball, if Pineda is fully recovered from TJ , if Tanaka is the real deal and can weather 30+ starts, if Kuroda can beat his age again without wearing down too badly, if they have some sort of bench to spell a collection of ageing players and, the really big one, if they can find a reasonable way to replace the wins that Rivera automatically gave them. The guy was typically good for 2.5 - 4+ over 18 years. That's huge.
They will need plenty of warm bodies as the 162 game season proceeds, including probably 8-10 starters who can rotate in when stuff happens, and it always does. It's never any different for any MLB team, more so for one with this many grey hairs. Last year, the thermometer they used to measure that warmth was badly out of whack. Vernon Wells, Jayson Nix, Lyle Overbay, and Travis Hafner define the concept of replacement level at this point. I think they've upgraded from that sorry group, but I don't think anyone's automatically going to hand them the AL East title just yet (outside of Heyman of course). There are enough questions with NY for quite a few episodes of Jeopardy.
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Post by taftreign on Jan 22, 2014 21:16:35 GMT -5
I agree NY is not a front runner but at least there trying. Baltimore should be hitting this window hard. Toronto should be a better competitor this year. Still I never count out the Yankees. Last year when everything was falling apart I'd continue to look at the standings and there they were hanging around.
I still expect to hear some connections between NY and Jimenez. Nevertheless They are better at catcher and in the OF versus what they rolled out most of last season especially defensively. Soriano is an improvement at DH over Hafner. Teixeira is in decline but an improvement over Overbay. Jeter is limited but they ran Nunez out there last year and worst case he's still there. Really if they go over the top for Jimenez and Drew it's no doubt going to have you looking over your shoulder.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jan 23, 2014 21:57:35 GMT -5
I think this was a good signing for the Yanks. They should sign Drew next.
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Post by oilcansman on Jan 24, 2014 11:46:09 GMT -5
C.C. Sabathia will determine the fate of the Yanks. They have enough hitting, excellent outfield defense, lousy infield defense, a solid bullpen and good options at no. 2 (Tanaka), no. 3 (Kuroda), no. 4 (Nova) and no. 5 (Pineda). If C.C. pitches like a no. 1, Yanks will be in playoffs. If, as I expect, his decline continues (why wouldn't it?) the Yanks will be an 85-88 win team - interesting but limited.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 24, 2014 12:57:36 GMT -5
I think the Yankees have a lot of variables that will need to go right. Was last year an abbreviation and not the new, declining norm for CC Sabathia? Can Tanaka pitch like a true number 2 despite poor K rates in his final year in Japan and a weak infield? Can Kuroda continue to be good and be trusted to throw 200 IP at 39? Is Nova good enough to replicate a 3.17 ERA when he's been thought of being a number 4/5 in the past? Can Pineda pitch like the stud the Yankees expected they were going to get when they traded Montero for him, despite missing the last two years with injury? Part of the Yankees problem is that even if everyone pitches at as good or better than expected, you have to hope for 200IP out of all 5 because they have no depth what so ever.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 24, 2014 14:04:01 GMT -5
I agree that Sabathia is key and their depth is a weakness. Especially at starting pitching. Their guys have to be healthy and produce 1-5. Still think they are our main competition though in the division. Slightly edging out the Rays. Any team can have some struggles at the starting pitching level though.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 24, 2014 14:16:09 GMT -5
I think the Rays are the favorite in the East as things stand today.
Jennings, Zobrist, Longoria and Myers make for a strong core lineup with Loney, Escobar, Hanigan and Dejesus filling in the rest nicely
Price, Moore, Cobb, Archer and Helickson is the best rotation
Balfour was a great signing for the closer role with Peralta, McGee, Bell, Torres, Colome and others making it potentially a powerful pen.
The Rays are a WS contender and yes I realize people assume Price is gone, but I don't believe he's going jay where before he's a free agent.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 24, 2014 17:10:04 GMT -5
Hastily-considered prediction as of January 24th: Boston, Tampa, NYY, Toronto, Baltimore. Subject to change, of course.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 24, 2014 17:34:24 GMT -5
Tough to say without the off-season done yet. I feel like there could be a significant move made if the Sox, despite their disinformation/public pronouncements, decide to trade a starer.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 24, 2014 18:02:47 GMT -5
Living in the Tampa Bay area, I can't believe how the Rays always seem to put together a team that competes for the playoffs. Balfour for me was a steal at $12 for 2 yrs. Rodney was always so inconsistent other than 2 years ago. Balfour is a consistent, battle tested closer who will make them stronger. Their infield defense is outstanding. Their outfield D is not bad. Their rotation is sick. If anyone will over take the Sox, it will be the Rays. I think we are slightly weaker, but have GREAT depth once again (thanks Ben!). The Yank's infield defense could be the worse in baseball this year. The left side, especially, will be pretty porous. Their rotational depth is terrible, and know they will miss Mariano.....but also Boone Logan. I think this may be the Rays year.
Rays - 94 wins Red Sox - 92 wins Jays - 89 wins Yankees - 88 wins Orioles - 79 wins
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 24, 2014 18:03:17 GMT -5
Tough to say without the off-season done yet. I feel like there could be a significant move made if the Sox, despite their disinformation/public pronouncements, decide to trade a starer. Fair point, but a question I haven't been able to figure out myself: what would they even trade for? On the one hand, it's not like they can't upgrade anywhere, but on the other, where at the MLB can they reasonably improve without having to rejigger how the roster is constructed? If you trade for, say, a LF, what do you do with the other half of the platoon that you didn't trade, assuming one of Nava/Gomes (Gava?) went in the deal? Demote them to a bench role? It's a weird situation. Part of why they may wait until late in ST is to have a chance to evaluate where they need pieces.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 24, 2014 18:15:02 GMT -5
Tough to say without the off-season done yet. I feel like there could be a significant move made if the Sox, despite their disinformation/public pronouncements, decide to trade a starer. Fair point, but a question I haven't been able to figure out myself: what would they even trade for? On the one hand, it's not like they can't upgrade anywhere, but on the other, where at the MLB can they reasonably improve without having to rejigger how the roster is constructed? If you trade for, say, a LF, what do you do with the other half of the platoon that you didn't trade, assuming one of Nava/Gomes (Gava?) went in the deal? Demote them to a bench role? It's a weird situation. Part of why they may wait until late in ST is to have a chance to evaluate where they need pieces. Prospects?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 24, 2014 18:21:20 GMT -5
Fair point, but a question I haven't been able to figure out myself: what would they even trade for? On the one hand, it's not like they can't upgrade anywhere, but on the other, where at the MLB can they reasonably improve without having to rejigger how the roster is constructed? If you trade for, say, a LF, what do you do with the other half of the platoon that you didn't trade, assuming one of Nava/Gomes (Gava?) went in the deal? Demote them to a bench role? It's a weird situation. Part of why they may wait until late in ST is to have a chance to evaluate where they need pieces. Prospects? Well right, but then it wouldn't really affect the AL East race, which was the discussion. You're also not going to get a stud for Ryan Dempster or anything.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jan 24, 2014 18:50:19 GMT -5
Why would the Rays be projected to win the AL East above us? We won the World Series last year, and while we lost Ellsbury, we were supposed to be an even better team than we were based on pythag, and the Rays were worse than they actually were. By Pythag, we were 13 games better than the Rays last year. I don't think Ellsbury should change that much. The projections seem to agree. The Projections have the sox at 88 wins and the Rays at 84 wins. The projections do have a much lower standard deviation than real MLB wins, because there is so much variance, it's hard to predict, which is why we're only projected for 88 wins because the best team is only projected for 89 wins. The Rays definitely should not be the Favorites for next year, Balfour definitely will not add enough to make them better than us. Plus, the Rays could trade Price, these projections are not even including that. I'll predict the AL East
Red Sox 95-67 Rays 89-73 Yankees 87-75 Blue Jays 86-74 Orioles 82-80
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 24, 2014 19:14:27 GMT -5
Player production doesn't stay stagnant. It's not unreasonable to project younger guys like Myers, Jennings, Moore, Cobb and Archer to improve as a whole. Yes there are variables on each side but as a team I believe Tampa has more room to grow then Boston.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jan 24, 2014 19:16:35 GMT -5
But the Rays were not even close to the Red Sox last year. It's not like Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Doubront and Bradley won't improve either, and Pedroia was injured last year which killed his power
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 24, 2014 19:19:40 GMT -5
They won 92 games to Boston's 97. That's pretty close and if we don't expect Boston to win 97 games again then it's even closer. Pythagorean predictions are nice to look at but don't mean a lot on the field.
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