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Evaluating the 2014 AL East
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jan 24, 2014 19:21:20 GMT -5
They mean more than win total, win total has a lot to do with luck. It wasn't nearly that close. Sox rested their starters the last week, while the Rays were fighting for a playoff spot. Also the Rays only won 92 because of the one-game playoff, it really was 91. The Rays were not close to the Red Sox last year.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 24, 2014 19:22:07 GMT -5
Luckily they'll each play 162 games to settle this! I could see any of the Rays, Sox, or Yanks winning the division if things break right for them.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jan 24, 2014 19:24:35 GMT -5
Luckily they'll each play 162 games to settle this! I could see any of the Rays, Sox, or Yanks winning the division if things break right for them. If things break right, I could see any of those three winning, but the Red Sox are the most likely to win the division by a lot
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2014 20:08:30 GMT -5
They won 92 games to Boston's 97. That's pretty close and if we don't expect Boston to win 97 games again then it's even closer. Pythagorean predictions are nice to look at but don't mean a lot on the field. Pythagorean winning percentage means a lot on the field, actually. It is a better predictor of future performance than pure won-loss percentage, for instance.
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Post by h11233 on Jan 24, 2014 20:17:26 GMT -5
The Sox lose Ells, Salty and Drew. They replace them with JBJ, Xander and AJ. We get a full season of Peavy, hopefully Buchholz is healthy, and they added depth in the pen. I can't imagine WMB being any worse, and think its reasonable to expect him to improve.
Yanks lost Cano, Mariano, Pettitte and ARod. That's huge. Yeah, they made a lot of additions, but you can't downplay what they lost.
I don't see the Yanks being any more of a threat than they were last year. I'll wait to see on Price before forming an opinion on the Rays. Whatever happens, I feel very optimistic about the defending World Series champs.
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Post by marrcus on Jan 24, 2014 20:47:29 GMT -5
Give me a healthy Buchholz and Ortiz and I think the boys shape up nicely to defend AL/E. Of course this is problematic though. Would you take Clay making 80% of his starts right now? I would.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 24, 2014 21:00:03 GMT -5
The Sox lose Ells, Salty and Drew. They replace them with JBJ, Xander and AJ. We get a full season of Peavy, hopefully Buchholz is healthy, and they added depth in the pen. I can't imagine WMB being any worse, and think its reasonable to expect him to improve. Yanks lost Cano, Mariano, Pettitte and ARod. That's huge. Yeah, they made a lot of additions, but you can't downplay what they lost. I don't see the Yanks being any more of a threat than they were last year. I'll wait to see on Price before forming an opinion on the Rays. Whatever happens, I feel very optimistic about the defending World Series champs. If we are simply comparing year-over-year, the Yankees are losing: 44 games of Arod at .5 WAR 64 appearances of Mariano Rivera at 1.5 WAR 30 starts of Andy Pettitte at 3.2 WAR 160 games of Cano at 6.0 WAR 61 games of Granderson at 1.4 WAR With reasonable health they are gaining (my estimates only): 30 starts for Tanaka (should wash Pettitte and possibly more; 3.2 WAR) 120 games of Jeter (probably 1.5 WAR or so) 120 games of Teixeira (probably 2 WAR or so) 150 games of Ellsbury (call it 4 WAR) 130 games of McCann (3 WAR) 120 games of Beltran (2 WAR) 120 games of Kelly Johnson (1.5 WAR) So by this very rough count they're losing 12.6 WAR and gaining 17.2 WAR. I think Sabathia will be worth about a win more than last year and Soriano about a win less. The Yankees won 85 games, but Pythaged to 79. This is not scientific at all, but I'd say its fairly close. The Yankees look like a team that will finish in the 82 to 88 win range. If Ellsbury and Tanaka hit their peak and Teixeira is better than expected they're a low-90s win team. It will take a LOT to go right for them to be more than that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 24, 2014 21:40:51 GMT -5
Luckily they'll each play 162 games to settle this! I could see any of the Rays, Sox, or Yanks winning the division if things break right for them. I think it basically breaks down into three tiers. In terms of likelihood of winning the division: 35% chance the Sox win the division 35% Rays - 15% Yankees - 7.5% Jays 7.5 Orioles (Don't get too hung up on the actual percentages, this is more just my rough conception of what the AL East is at this point)
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Post by jmei on Jan 24, 2014 22:28:09 GMT -5
Here is the current Fangraphs Depth Charts projection for the AL East (look at the "Projected Full Season" column). Note that Tanaka is only projected for 1.2 wins (because it's hard to project NPB players); if you bump that up by three wins (a very optimistic projection, by the way), the projected W/L records would be: Red Sox 88-74 Rays 84-78 Blue Jays 83-79 Yankees 82-80 Orioles 77-85 That sounds about right to me. I agree that the Blue Jays are a dark horse contender, especially if they add another good starting pitcher. The Toronto offense projects to be one of the best in the league (a core of Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Rasmus, and Lind is pretty good; it'd be even better if they could get a second baseman who is above replacement level). Their pitching is pretty week, but they'll likely add Jimenez or Santana, and there's lots of high-upside talent (Morrow, Stroman, Dickey). Pretty much everything that could go wrong did go wrong for them in 2013, and they're likely to regress positively next year a la the Red Sox last year.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 24, 2014 22:34:29 GMT -5
I've looked at the Yanks OF situation a little and I think they might consider going with Soriano in RF, Ellsbury in CF and Gardner in LF with Beltran as the DH. Is Soriano's arm good enough for RF? He has never played a single inning in RF in his entire mlb career. If Soriano has an arm, that would give them a better defensive OF by far and maximize WAR value. Soriano really isn't that bad defensively as an OF, as compared to Beltran especially I would think at this point in their careers. He should actually be quite good. Gardner is great defensively in LF and Ellsbury should be very good in CF. And Beltran might be the 2nd best DH in the league.
Chavopepe, I think you should add Soriano into your WAR calculations as a 3 WAR guy. He wasn't available most of the year. If he fields as well as I think he can in Yankee stadium's RF, he might be a 3.5 WAR player.
If Gardner slots back in LF his dWAR also goes way up IMO. It might boost him by 1 WAR.
EDIT: I just noticed my Einstein avatar looks like he is wearing women's shoes or something. What's up with that!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 24, 2014 23:46:49 GMT -5
I'll go with:
New York 93-69 Boston 90-72 Tampa 88-74 Baltimore 79-83 Toronto 75-87
The Yanks will probably benefit from all that spending and I doubt that they're done. I think they'll get good production out of Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran, and Tanaka. And I think they'll have a viable 2b/3b in place by season's end and I think Teixeira will be productive and Sabathia will bounce back. I think Kelly will help Robertson in the pen but the Yanks will acquiring more bullpen help. I think Pineda will be a bit of a surprise. It's not going to be like Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, and Wang coming out of nowhere, but the Yanks I think will be tough.
I think the Sox won't quite have the walk-off magic and they'll have more injuries than last season, but I think it'll be a good season from the standpoint that the arrow will be pointing upwards by season's end as I think the Sox will be integrating the young players onto the team. I think Bradley will shake off a slow start and come on toward the end of the season, Bogaerts will blossom and one of Barnes, Ranaudo, or Webster shows promise in Boston in 2014 (I'll nominate Webster, but with the caveat that Barnes has a nice year in AAA). I think De La Rosa might surprise people and help them with injuries hit the bullpen. I think Doubront will move forward and that Cecchini and Owens will be knocking on the door by year's end and Swihart will take another big step forward. So while it might be a step backwards I think they're gearing up for "The next great Red Sox team"/
I think the Rays might get caught inbetween. Keep Price because they're in contention but wonder what they could have gotten for him. Either that or maybe Arizona deals Bradley for Price before the season even starts. Who knows? They'll be neck and neck with the Sox and Yanks.
I think the O's pitching will struggle this year and if Rodney becomes their closer, they will lose some late inning leads.
And Toronto will probably be the worst of the teams. None of them are that bad but when they play head-to-head I think it will help drop a couple of teams under .500 and I think it will be Baltimore and Toronto.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 25, 2014 0:34:12 GMT -5
I'll go with: New York 93-69 Boston 90-72 Tampa 88-74 Baltimore 79-83 Toronto 75-87 The Yanks will probably benefit from all that spending and I doubt that they're done. I think they'll get good production out of Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran, and Tanaka. And I think they'll have a viable 2b/3b in place by season's end and I think Teixeira will be productive and Sabathia will bounce back. I think Kelly will help Robertson in the pen but the Yanks will acquiring more bullpen help. I think Pineda will be a bit of a surprise. It's not going to be like Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, and Wang coming out of nowhere, but the Yanks I think will be tough. I think the Sox won't quite have the walk-off magic and they'll have more injuries than last season, but I think it'll be a good season from the standpoint that the arrow will be pointing upwards by season's end as I think the Sox will be integrating the young players onto the team. I think Bradley will shake off a slow start and come on toward the end of the season, Bogaerts will blossom and one of Barnes, Ranaudo, or Webster shows promise in Boston in 2014 (I'll nominate Webster, but with the caveat that Barnes has a nice year in AAA). I think De La Rosa might surprise people and help them with injuries hit the bullpen. I think Doubront will move forward and that Cecchini and Owens will be knocking on the door by year's end and Swihart will take another big step forward. So while it might be a step backwards I think they're gearing up for "The next great Red Sox team"/ I think the Rays might get caught inbetween. Keep Price because they're in contention but wonder what they could have gotten for him. Either that or maybe Arizona deals Bradley for Price before the season even starts. Who knows? They'll be neck and neck with the Sox and Yanks. I think the O's pitching will struggle this year and if Rodney becomes their closer, they will lose some late inning leads. And Toronto will probably be the worst of the teams. None of them are that bad but when they play head-to-head I think it will help drop a couple of teams under .500 and I think it will be Baltimore and Toronto. you seem to think everything will go right for the yankees…. I dont think that has a good chance of happeing…. And Tex had the same injury as oritz…. and we saw how long it took for him to get his power back….
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2014 0:48:32 GMT -5
I'll go with: New York 93-69 Boston 90-72 Tampa 88-74 Baltimore 79-83 Toronto 75-87 The Yanks will probably benefit from all that spending and I doubt that they're done. I think they'll get good production out of Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran, and Tanaka. And I think they'll have a viable 2b/3b in place by season's end and I think Teixeira will be productive and Sabathia will bounce back. I think Kelly will help Robertson in the pen but the Yanks will acquiring more bullpen help. I think Pineda will be a bit of a surprise. It's not going to be like Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, and Wang coming out of nowhere, but the Yanks I think will be tough. I think the Sox won't quite have the walk-off magic and they'll have more injuries than last season, but I think it'll be a good season from the standpoint that the arrow will be pointing upwards by season's end as I think the Sox will be integrating the young players onto the team. I think Bradley will shake off a slow start and come on toward the end of the season, Bogaerts will blossom and one of Barnes, Ranaudo, or Webster shows promise in Boston in 2014 (I'll nominate Webster, but with the caveat that Barnes has a nice year in AAA). I think De La Rosa might surprise people and help them with injuries hit the bullpen. I think Doubront will move forward and that Cecchini and Owens will be knocking on the door by year's end and Swihart will take another big step forward. So while it might be a step backwards I think they're gearing up for "The next great Red Sox team"/ I think the Rays might get caught inbetween. Keep Price because they're in contention but wonder what they could have gotten for him. Either that or maybe Arizona deals Bradley for Price before the season even starts. Who knows? They'll be neck and neck with the Sox and Yanks. I think the O's pitching will struggle this year and if Rodney becomes their closer, they will lose some late inning leads. And Toronto will probably be the worst of the teams. None of them are that bad but when they play head-to-head I think it will help drop a couple of teams under .500 and I think it will be Baltimore and Toronto. you seem to think everything will go right for the yankees…. I dont think that has a good chance of happeing…. And Tex had the same injury as oritz…. and we saw how long it took for him to get his power back…. I have "everything" going right for the Yankees? Really? I think they're projected to win somewhere between 85 - 90 games and I have them at 93. I didn't make them out to be the 1998 Yankees. And when I say Teixeira will be productive I'm not putting the guy down for .300 with 40 homers, gold glove defense, and 80 walks. I'm saying the guy will be alot better than what they trotted out last year. I think he'll hit 25 homers and be alright at 1b. I'm sure the defense at SS will stink and the infield will be lousy and the pen will be questionable, but I think the Yanks will improve it as the year wears on by throwing money at the problem (taking on a contract) If you want to talk about "everything" going right, then look at the Sox in 2013. The Yanks would need less to go right to win 93 games than the Sox needed to go right to win 97 games last season. Look I get that we hate the Yankees around here, but it's not that hard to see the Yanks pretty close to the Sox or a little ahead of the Sox. Likewise I don't see any issues if people think the Sox will finish ahead or even Tampa could finish in 1st.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 25, 2014 9:13:25 GMT -5
The 2013 Sox hardly had everything go right for them.
They lost Hanrahan, Bailey and Miller for the year. Yea Koji was awesome but those injuries hurt the team, they didn't help it.
Pedroia was injured the first series of the season and had a down tar at the plate.
Victorino dealt with a lot of injuries all year, causing him to miss a bunch of time.
Third base was a disaster all year until the WS.
Buchholz missed half the year and was not the same pitcher when he came back.
Lester sucked for a couple months then got it back for the stretch drive and they the WS.
Peavy wasn't very good after they obtained him.
Napoli disappeared for about half the season (overall)
Drew took a long time to get going and then was injured for a chunk of time.
The spring training phenom, who made the team out of camp flopped (Bradley). The second one, came up and got shelled in his appearances (Webster)
Not complaining or saying they didn't have a bunch of things go favorably for them, but this narrative that all these things were perfect for them is beyond crap. They got thru all these things with incredible depth and focus. They had a bunch of adversity to overcome and they did.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 25, 2014 9:14:59 GMT -5
If you want to talk about "everything" going right, then look at the Sox in 2013. The Yanks would need less to go right to win 93 games than the Sox needed to go right to win 97 games last season. Look I get that we hate the Yankees around here, but it's not that hard to see the Yanks pretty close to the Sox or a little ahead of the Sox. Likewise I don't see any issues if people think the Sox will finish ahead or even Tampa could finish in 1st. You mean Pedroia's season long injured wrist that sapped his power and Clay Buccholz missing most of the season with his injuries and Middlebrooks and everyone else they ran out 3B stinking up the joint (other than Iglesias) and Andrew Miller going down and Andrew Bailey going down and Joel Hanrahan going down and Ortiz starting off on the DL and JBJ struggling big time and Losing David Ross for much of the year with his concussions and the "great" performances from Dempster, Webster, and many of the others that a took turn in the 5th starter role and whatever else I missed?? Sure many things went right, too. Some of them were just positive regression to the mean that were well identified by the front office. The point is, many things went wrong last year for Boston, but they were so well constructed that they were able to overcome. I don't think that can be said of the Yankees right now.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 25, 2014 9:34:26 GMT -5
I don't necessarily buy the "everything went right for the Sox in '13" argument, but I don't think the time Buchholz missed with injury negates how much he blew away any reasonable projection of how he'd pitch when he did take the mound. Both Fangraphs and B-Ref counted him as having his second highest career WAR. Perhaps more importantly, he also made the third most starts and threw the third most innings of his career. Buchholz continued to be not durable, but pitched better than he ever has, which puts his season firmly into the "stuff that went right" category.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 25, 2014 9:37:47 GMT -5
Red Sox 88-74 Rays 84-78 Blue Jays 83-79 Yankees 82-80 Orioles 77-85 That looks about right to me, too, although I think the Sox and Rays will be better than that. Compared to last year, the Sox are better in the rotation (with Peavy in the rotation from the beginning and even better depth than last year), probably about equal on offense, and the bullpen seems pretty good (pre-injuries). They have some upside potential with the pitching, with the possibility of more starts from Buchholz and a better start-to-finish year from Lester, plus more depth from the guys in AAA, and not a lot of unusual downside risk there (injuries always an issue with pitching). The offense probably has about as much upside potential (XANDER! Better year from WMB, more power from Pedroia) as downside risk (regression from Victorino and/or Napoli, rough year from JBJ, injury/decline from Ortiz). Injuries can always change everything, and the Sox were pretty healthy last year, so there's that. If the Rays pitching is healthier than last year, they could be better, especially if Myers improves. I'd put them as a small notch behind the Sox on the probability scale, definitely a threat to take the division. The Yankees need A LOT to go right for them to win. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. Teixeira needs to be better, Jeter needs to be not-awful, they need Pineda to come through and CC to bounce back, Tanaka to meet expectations ... all possible, mind you, but just not that likely to have a significant number of those things happening all in one year. Jays and Orioles are sorta boring, may surprise a little (especially the Jays, like jmei said) but unlikely enough to be a factor that I'm not that interested in them.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Jan 25, 2014 9:49:03 GMT -5
They won 92 games to Boston's 97. That's pretty close and if we don't expect Boston to win 97 games again then it's even closer. Pythagorean predictions are nice to look at but don't mean a lot on the field. If you're saying they are not 100% reliable, sure. But don't they actually mean that "on the field" they were lucky and had good timing in a way that will be hard to reproduce "on the field" in the succeeding year? What are you saying?
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 25, 2014 9:57:40 GMT -5
You mean Pedroia's season long injured wrist that sapped his power and Clay Buccholz missing most of the season with his injuries and Middlebrooks and everyone else they ran out 3B stinking up the joint (other than Iglesias) and Andrew Miller going down and Andrew Bailey going down and Joel Hanrahan going down and Ortiz starting off on the DL and JBJ struggling big time and Losing David Ross for much of the year with his concussions and the "great" performances from Dempster, Webster, and many of the others that a took turn in the 5th starter role and whatever else I missed?? Sure many things went right, too. Some of them were just positive regression to the mean that were well identified by the front office. The point is, many things went wrong last year for Boston, but they were so well constructed that they were able to overcome. I don't think that can be said of the Yankees right now. When your catching up on posts you ever reach one that just totally pisses you off and while you continue reading your writing your flaming post in your head but just as you get started the very last post you read likely does a better job than the one in your bean? The only things I can add are my expectations looking forward positionally. I expect that the right side will perform better in 2014 for the sox. Petey's health, Napoli's settling in to playing in Boston and at first, and the same for Victorino who should be able to find a way to better health and object avoidance all lead me to an improving projection from last year. On the left side I truly believe the sox are adding an elite player whose performance will have no historical comp. Xander is a difference maker. I see status quo in left and I do see Middlebrooks with improvement in the field and at the plate. Defensively there is no question to me that cf and Catcher will improve over 2013. While Ells is missed at the plate and lead off which should not be overlooked, JBJ defense will offset this. Starting pitching could see an uptick with a year of Peavy, but I do have concerns with Buck's health yet one of the many depth options will likely contribute. The pen is as loaded as I have ever seen it. It is early to predict the division and I expect both Toronto and Baltimore to make significant additions shortly. If the orioles woke up and signed Drew as an example that would strongly effect the records of all teams in the east.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 25, 2014 10:06:20 GMT -5
Could everyone please be careful when they are quoting other posts to make sure their comments are after the quote has ended?(iaksovos11 and jackiewilsonsaid) It makes it very difficult to try and figure out who said what.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2014 10:46:27 GMT -5
If you want to talk about "everything" going right, then look at the Sox in 2013. The Yanks would need less to go right to win 93 games than the Sox needed to go right to win 97 games last season. Look I get that we hate the Yankees around here, but it's not that hard to see the Yanks pretty close to the Sox or a little ahead of the Sox. Likewise I don't see any issues if people think the Sox will finish ahead or even Tampa could finish in 1st. You mean Pedroia's season long injured wrist that sapped his power and Clay Buccholz missing most of the season with his injuries and Middlebrooks and everyone else they ran out 3B stinking up the joint (other than Iglesias) and Andrew Miller going down and Andrew Bailey going down and Joel Hanrahan going down and Ortiz starting off on the DL and JBJ struggling big time and Losing David Ross for much of the year with his concussions and the "great" performances from Dempster, Webster, and many of the others that a took turn in the 5th starter role and whatever else I missed?? Sure many things went right, too. Some of them were just positive regression to the mean that were well identified by the front office. The point is, many things went wrong last year for Boston, but they were so well constructed that they were able to overcome. I don't think that can be said of the Yankees right now. You're reaching here. Bullpen injuries? Sure, but the end result of that was Uehara having one of the best closer seasons imaginable and a strong bullpen overall. Pedroia and Ortiz had some injuries... and they both had very good seasons regardless. The fact that Ortiz was still as productive as he was given his age is a minor miracle. 5th starter issues? Every team in baseball has those. David Ross? If you're looking for things that went wrong for a team and an injury to their backup catcher is on the list, well, not much went wrong for that team. With I guess the exception of Buchholz (and really, 100 good innings from him might be his upside at this point), all these things you're pointing out didn't actually hurt the team. Big picture, the Sox core (Ellsbury/Lester/Lackey/Ortiz/Pedroia) was massively more productive in '13 than it was in '12. The Drew/Napoli/Victorino/Uehara acquisitions all worked out brilliantly, bitching about Napoli's K rate notwithstanding. How often does a team have ALL it's core piece perform AND have ALL it's major acquisitions work out? It's a rare thing, and it's unlikely to be repeated in '14.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 25, 2014 11:07:09 GMT -5
Well, 2012 was a horrible year for the Sox in general. Pedroia was not more productive than his career norm. Lester was not any better than his career norm.
A lot went well for Boston. But there were a lot things that didn't. That's all. I'm not trying to say that had some major string of bad luck.
The fact that some things that went wrong didn't hurt them, was part of my point - they were constructed with great depth. The Yankees are not. Some people here still have an irrational fear of the Yankees. They're likely to be better than last year, but not sure why we'd think think everything will break right for them and they will win the division. They could, but at this point it's not likely.
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Post by h11233 on Jan 25, 2014 11:17:29 GMT -5
Yeah, what they said.
On Buchholz: Yes, he was terrific before the injury... but he's a terrific talent. If Buchholz is healthy, he's one of the best in the league. When he got off to the hot start, I wasn't thinking "where the hell did this come from?!" Instead, I was thinking FINALLY! So, I don't think its reasonable to put him "firmly" in the "stuff that went right" category. He got injured. Assuming health, I think he's plenty capable of being an elite pitcher. Anything short of that puts him firmly in the "stuff that went wrong" for me.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 25, 2014 11:22:24 GMT -5
Include me in the camp that is more scared of the Rays than MFYs.
Yanks are banking on a lot of old players doing well and staying off the dl.
I think the Red Sox win the AL east but it wouldnt surprise me if the Rays won. It would surprise me if the Yanks did.
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Post by h11233 on Jan 25, 2014 11:22:44 GMT -5
Well, 2012 was a horrible year for the Sox in general. Pedroia was not more productive than his career norm. Lester was not any better than his career norm. A lot went well for Boston. But there were a lot things that didn't. That's all. I'm not trying to say that had some major string of bad luck. The fact that some things that went wrong didn't hurt them, was part of my point - they were constructed with great depth. The Yankees are not. Some people here still have an irrational fear of the Yankees. They're likely to be better than last year, but not sure why we'd think think everything will break right for them and they will win the division. They could, but at this point it's not likely. I think its important to note the Yanks were an 85 win team last year (though they had no business being an 85 win team). The Yankees are a better team on paper than last year, but I think its reasonable to say they are unlikely to have significantly better results (85 wins).
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