SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Evaluating the 2014 AL East
|
Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 25, 2014 11:52:49 GMT -5
The projections I trust have the yanks near 85.
These include strong projects for cc and Tanaka. I'm not seeing this as realistic. I think Tanaka y 1 is full of risk and I don't see him as even a three. His walk rate and homer rate will climb. CC is so over worked and all signs point to arm issues.
I do expect the yanks to move their better prospects and Gardner for upgrades in the outfield and 2nd as well as potentially a SP.
It all adds up to .500 or so to me.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2014 12:05:24 GMT -5
Well, 2012 was a horrible year for the Sox in general. Pedroia was not more productive than his career norm. Lester was not any better than his career norm. A lot went well for Boston. But there were a lot things that didn't. That's all. I'm not trying to say that had some major string of bad luck.
The fact that some things that went wrong didn't hurt them, was part of my point - they were constructed with great depth. The Yankees are not. Some people here still have an irrational fear of the Yankees. They're likely to be better than last year, but not sure why we'd think think everything will break right for them and they will win the division. They could, but at this point it's not likely. I'm saying that overall they had very good luck, luck that's unlikely to be repeated. I think the facts support that. And sure, depth helped. But no amount of depth is going to matter when, for instance, David Ortiz finally collapses. Which very well could have happened last season and is still a very real possibility this season.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 25, 2014 12:12:54 GMT -5
Well, 2012 was a horrible year for the Sox in general. Pedroia was not more productive than his career norm. Lester was not any better than his career norm. A lot went well for Boston. But there were a lot things that didn't. That's all. I'm not trying to say that had some major string of bad luck.
The fact that some things that went wrong didn't hurt them, was part of my point - they were constructed with great depth. The Yankees are not. Some people here still have an irrational fear of the Yankees. They're likely to be better than last year, but not sure why we'd think think everything will break right for them and they will win the division. They could, but at this point it's not likely. I'm saying that overall they had very good luck, luck that's unlikely to be repeated. I think the facts support that. And sure, depth helped. But no amount of depth is going to matter when, for instance, David Ortiz finally collapses. Which very well could have happened last season and is still a very real possibility this season. I agree with this. It is really hard to put together any argument that the Red Sox individual player performances weren't somewhat lucky last year as a whole. With that said, the teams overall record was three games under its pythag of 100 wins. When you're starting with 100 wins, there is a lot of room for regression to still be the best team in the division.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 25, 2014 13:37:02 GMT -5
I think there's a little extra aura of "luck" around the Red Sox last year because we were all wrong about how good they were in the first place. Yeah, I think they were lucky in avoiding any huge injuries to position players, for sure, and, probably most importantly, their rotation was relatively healthy, with the notable exception of Buchholz. But, we also shouldn't think that 2013 was some kind of extremely lucky season with a lot of unrepeatable performances, either. They had solid luck, but that almost goes without saying when you win the World Series. It's a rare team that can have the best record in the AL and win the World Series without being relatively lucky with injuries; only a real juggernaut can pull that off, and the Sox weren't that.
|
|
|
Post by semperfisox on Jan 25, 2014 14:02:14 GMT -5
Yanks collecting talent instead of building a team like Cherington does. It worked in 2009 for them, but they are much older now.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2014 14:45:22 GMT -5
Man, my comment wasn't intended to inflame. I'm surprised people didn't get ticked off at the Grantland article after the Sox won the Series where Jonah Keri mentioned that the Sox basically had just about everything that could go wrong for them go wrong for them the previous two seasons and sometimes you just need to wait for your luck to turn. Then he mentioned that just about everything that could go right for them went right in 2013. I believe he mentioned a 1% outcome vs a 99 % outcome. Not sure why it's not showing as a link but here it is: grantland.com/features/jonah-keri-red-sox-world-series-2/I don't think I said anything that's even remotely outrageous. Wah, the Sox actually used the DL last year. How unfortunate. It was simply the kind of year where if a guy was stinking up a series and was 0-10 he would naturally come thru with a huge hit in the most crucial situation to give the Sox a victory. Papi 2-20 in the ALCS? No problem - with the Sox flat-lining he gets one of his two hits at the most crucial point of the ALCS, the grand slam that just evades Hunter. Victorino, 0 for the ALCS? No problem. Grand Slam to ice the series. 0 for the World Series? Even better - 3 run double to ice the Championship. Gomes, 0 for the Series - why is he even playing? Oh yeah, because his one stinking hit is of course, the 3 run homer that is the biggest hit of the World Series and totally turns the whole series around. Buchholz can't throw more than 88 MPH? No problem. He holds the Cards to 1 unearned run in 4 IP despite a ton of baserunners. Was everything perfect? No see ending of Game 3 of the Series. But my God, everything went as well as could be expected. At this point if I didn't know any better I would think they lost Game 3 and 4 of the Series only so we could all see what it was like to win the World Series at Fenway Park. It's hard to imagine things going so perfectly again. I picked them to win 90 games but they're certainly capable of winning 95, but I see this as a team in transition, certainly not one that's chaotic. To me, the arrow is pointing upward. Ben is truly building the next "Great Red Sox team". He just didn't think he had built one in 2013, but he did. All I can say is it is foolish to expect everything to go as well as it did last year. The only thing more foolish would be not to appreciate how well everything went last year. What an amazing season. Honestly I think Fenway wrote it the best. Really don't understand the outrage.
|
|
|
Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 25, 2014 15:12:49 GMT -5
I don't think last year was luck. The perception elsewhere is that 2013 was just Boston' s year. I don't expect that opinion here. I don't see last year as magic. Sound free agent decisions played out. Some injured or underachieving players during the Valentine Massacre returned to health and form. The entire managing staff performed well. The team had a laser focus on the World Series.
There was no luck. Hard work paid off.
The better team won the World Series.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2014 15:38:13 GMT -5
I don't think last year was luck. The perception elsewhere is that 2013 was just Boston' s year. I don't expect that opinion here. I don't see last year as magic. Sound free agent decisions played out. Some injured or underachieving players during the Valentine Massacre returned to health and form. The entire managing staff performed well. The team had a laser focus on the World Series. There was no luck. Hard work paid off. The better team won the World Series. Nobody is saying that the Sox were a bunch of crappy players who happened to get lucky and win 97 games. They were an excellent team, but a lot of stuff went right. Please don't tell me that when the Sox signed Ross, Gomes, Dempster, Uehara, Victorino, Drew, and Napoli you foresaw a World Champion. The Sox were a surprising Champion. Most of those guys were coming off mediocre seasons or had major question marks as did the core that stunk in 2012. The Sox had a ton of legitimate question marks that got answered in the affirmative. Don't tell me that happens every year. If you want to believe that - fine it's your right. A lot of things that could have went wrong went right. And in years past a lot of things that could have went right went wrong. I believe that the Sox won't have as many things break right for them in 2014 as it did in 2013. Doesn't mean that I don't think they're not a good team, that they can't win. More importantly I think Ben is building from the ground up something that's built to last. The 2013 Red Sox weren't meant to become a long-term juggernaut. They were designed to be a "bridge" team to get them to where Ben wants the team long-term. It just so happened that the 2013 Red Sox team was the most beautiful bridge ever built.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 25, 2014 15:43:23 GMT -5
The idea that the 2013 Red Sox were lucky doesn't mean that they didn't deserve it or that they didn't work hard/make good team-building decisions or even that they weren't the true-talent best team in baseball. It doesn't mean the 2014 team isn't any good either. Even front-runners need luck to win the championship, and you're taking it too much as a slight, which it isn't meant to be.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 25, 2014 15:45:18 GMT -5
I thought the Redsox would be a 91 win team last winter and a 93 win team by Spring training. It wasn't crazy to think Lackey could come back strong after TJ surgury and Lester looked good also in the Spring. Buchholz showed some serious potential also but I didn't think he would be lights out as he was. I missed on Papi and Middlebrooks some also. But overall they looked like a team which could challenge for the title again with a little health.
I still see some serious holes in NYC of course and the depth is clearly an issue. I was surprised with Nova's year in 2013 but I really think Tanaka will be huge for them and Kuroda will be strong also. They need to fix their pen which absolutely fell apart last fall, just destroying their chances, but that is something they can do. Ellsbury and Beltran will help them a lot. What a swing in the catching position for them also.
I would like to wait until Spring Training to make a prediction but I think the Yanks are closer than it might look to turning things around.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 25, 2014 18:40:21 GMT -5
The idea that the 2013 Red Sox were lucky doesn't mean that they didn't deserve it or that they didn't work hard/make good team-building decisions or even that they weren't the true-talent best team in baseball. It doesn't mean the 2014 team isn't any good either. Even front-runners need luck to win the championship, and you're taking it too much as a slight, which it isn't meant to be. Sometimes you're good, and sometimes you're lucky. And if you're going to win a championship of anything, you're going to need to be both.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jan 25, 2014 19:47:28 GMT -5
Whoa, let's not rewrite history here. It wasn't the thought of the team having some good fortune that got people it was "if you want to talk about everything going right, then look at the Sox in 2013". Plain and simple. It was an asinine, over the top and erroneous description of the season. Maybe it wasn't meant that way, but that's how it was written.
Regarding Buchholz, I can get on board with him not being something that went wrong category based on his history but it certainly can't be in the what went right side if the ledger either. Sometimes things just are what they are and he's probably a good example of that as well.
Ortiz could fall off a cliff and will at some point but the years he doesn't aren't lucky either . They just are Ortiz doing his thing. Just like when he does get injured or just regress it's not bad luck, it's just going to happen sooner or later due to his age. Same goes for Koji.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2014 20:20:15 GMT -5
“Good luck is another name for tenacity of purpose.“ – Ralph Waldo Emerson
Concord boy so, he probably had the Sox in mind when he wrote that.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2014 22:16:42 GMT -5
Hmmm, I wonder if there's an ancient Greek guy that would have had an opinion on the luck factor in the AL East.
Who knows, maybe he would have concluded that the difference in quality of play between the Red Sox, MFY and Rays was much more than meets the eye by just looking at the standings (which was considerable on its own).
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2014 22:45:54 GMT -5
General statement but my opinion only, your mileage may vary.
Any analysis that uses 2013 wins as the baseline is particularly sketchy. How sketchy ? Consider that a very generous WAR factor for Tanaka is still less than the Pythag factor.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2014 22:47:21 GMT -5
The idea that the 2013 Red Sox were lucky doesn't mean that they didn't deserve it or that they didn't work hard/make good team-building decisions or even that they weren't the true-talent best team in baseball. It doesn't mean the 2014 team isn't any good either. Even front-runners need luck to win the championship, and you're taking it too much as a slight, which it isn't meant to be. Exactly. I think particularly in the past three seasons the Red Sox totally got what they deserved. The 2011 Sox deserved to walk off the field as embarrassed losers. The 2012 Red Sox were nauseating and totally earned their last place finish. And the 2013 Red Sox richly deserved to be World Champions. That 2013 team did everything the right way in stark contrast to the previous two seasons. They played as a team and they totally cared. It was pretty obvious - I felt that it showed. They played with heart that they hadn't shown in quite awhile. They were a gutsy team. I'm very proud of this team and they'll always hold a special place in my heart. I can't quantify this post but it doesn't really matter in this case. It's just a feel I got watching the team.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 25, 2014 22:58:10 GMT -5
Whoa, let's not rewrite history here. It wasn't the thought of the team having some good fortune that got people it was "if you want to talk about everything going right, then look at the Sox in 2013". Plain and simple. It was an asinine, over the top and erroneous description of the season. Maybe it wasn't meant that way, but that's how it was written. Regarding Buchholz, I can get on board with him not being something that went wrong category based on his history but it certainly can't be in the what went right side if the ledger either. Sometimes things just are what they are and he's probably a good example of that as well. Ortiz could fall off a cliff and will at some point but the years he doesn't aren't lucky either . They just are Ortiz doing his thing. Just like when he does get injured or just regress it's not bad luck, it's just going to happen sooner or later due to his age. Same goes for Koji. If you're going to quote me try quoting it the way I put it. I used quotes around "everything" because grandsalami mentioned that I had "everything" going right for the Yankees so I used his terminology in response to how many affirmatives the Sox with all their big questions that they have. 100% never goes right with any ballclub. Duh. Didn't think that needed to be explained, but the Sox had a ton of question marks that worked out and it did to a highly successful degree. No shame in that. Doesn't mean the Sox weren't fantastic last year or didn't deserve to be holding the trophy. And it doesn't mean the Sox will stink in 2014, and quite frankly I think 2014 will be a year the Sox use as a stepping stone to building that young core team that Cherington is envisioning. I love where this team has been and I like where it's going. I'm done talking about something that was never even remotely meant to be controversial. I think Fenway and Jmei and that Grantland article said it better than I managed to.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jan 25, 2014 23:07:33 GMT -5
Whoa, let's not rewrite history here. It wasn't the thought of the team having some good fortune that got people it was "if you want to talk about everything going right, then look at the Sox in 2013". Plain and simple. It was an asinine, over the top and erroneous description of the season. Maybe it wasn't meant that way, but that's how it was written. Regarding Buchholz, I can get on board with him not being something that went wrong category based on his history but it certainly can't be in the what went right side if the ledger either. Sometimes things just are what they are and he's probably a good example of that as well. Ortiz could fall off a cliff and will at some point but the years he doesn't aren't lucky either . They just are Ortiz doing his thing. Just like when he does get injured or just regress it's not bad luck, it's just going to happen sooner or later due to his age. Same goes for Koji. If you're going to quote me try quoting it the way I put it. I used quotes around "everything" because grandsalami mentioned that I had "everything" going right for the Yankees so I used his terminology in response to how many affirmatives the Sox with all their big questions that they have. 100% never goes right with any ballclub. Duh. Didn't think that needed to be explained, but the Sox had a ton of question marks that worked out and it did to a highly successful degree. No shame in that. Doesn't mean the Sox weren't fantastic last year or didn't deserve to be holding the trophy. And it doesn't mean the Sox will stink in 2014, and quite frankly I think 2014 will be a year the Sox use as a stepping stone to building that young core team that Cherington is envisioning. I love where this team has been and I like where it's going. I'm done talking about something that was never even remotely meant to be controversial. I think Fenway and Jmei and that Grantland article said it better than I managed to. sorry for misunderstanding you
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 26, 2014 0:13:16 GMT -5
If you're going to quote me try quoting it the way I put it. I used quotes around "everything" because grandsalami mentioned that I had "everything" going right for the Yankees so I used his terminology in response to how many affirmatives the Sox with all their big questions that they have. 100% never goes right with any ballclub. Duh. Didn't think that needed to be explained, but the Sox had a ton of question marks that worked out and it did to a highly successful degree. No shame in that. Doesn't mean the Sox weren't fantastic last year or didn't deserve to be holding the trophy. And it doesn't mean the Sox will stink in 2014, and quite frankly I think 2014 will be a year the Sox use as a stepping stone to building that young core team that Cherington is envisioning. I love where this team has been and I like where it's going. I'm done talking about something that was never even remotely meant to be controversial. I think Fenway and Jmei and that Grantland article said it better than I managed to. sorry for misunderstanding you No problem GS! I know you bleed Red Sox red every bit as much as I do. Agree or disagree, I think we all do. Let's go Red Sox!!
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 26, 2014 10:33:59 GMT -5
Depth can make up for bad luck and even make a team look lucky.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 26, 2014 10:43:47 GMT -5
That's a very good point. This team could wheel in guys like Carp, Gomes, and Iglesias, put Nava out in rightfield on an irregular basis, and even afford to revamp the lineup with Ross and Bogaerts during the WS, because of that depth.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jan 26, 2014 11:15:28 GMT -5
Personally I am tired of listening to Masserati on 98.5. He said that the MFY getting Tanaka made them the favorites and the Sox are doing nothing this offseason because there taking advantage of winning it all.
Now let's look at the MFY's. At 1b Tex is coming back from an injury and a year older . 2b Cano is gone . SS Jeter is a year older coming back from injury. 3b ARod is suspended so far. C McCann good signing. Of you have Ells, Beltran ( who is close to 40 3 year deal), Ichiro ( another year older), Ratner and Soriano .
DH , Hafner. P Tanaka, Cc, Kuroda ( older), Nova, Pineda ( I guess ). Bullpen , No Mariano.
I mean I am not trying to hate on this team but for the money they spent they have a ton of questions still. There happy Arod is gone but his production is gone also. Cano was a great player. Mariano was a lockdown save. Even the starting rotation isn't that great. There best prospect is a catcher. So my conclusion is Mass is saying this to be a shit starter or he really hates the Red Sox but I am questioning his credibility.
I love what the Sox are doing. You can't win with the Boston media.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan06 on Jan 26, 2014 11:27:26 GMT -5
I think there's a little extra aura of "luck" around the Red Sox last year because we were all wrong about how good they were in the first place. Yeah, I think they were lucky in avoiding any huge injuries to position players, for sure, and, probably most importantly, their rotation was relatively healthy, with the notable exception of Buchholz. But, we also shouldn't think that 2013 was some kind of extremely lucky season with a lot of unrepeatable performances, either. They had solid luck, but that almost goes without saying when you win the World Series. It's a rare team that can have the best record in the AL and win the World Series without being relatively lucky with injuries; only a real juggernaut can pull that off, and the Sox weren't that. People view our 2013 season as "lucky" or "everything going right" because just how horribly things went in 2012. In reality, if you can look past the 2012 season as a mixture of poor coaching, bad injuries and terrible chemistry, you will realize just how talented the 2013 Red Sox team was.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan1615 on Jan 26, 2014 12:39:47 GMT -5
Can we stop this stuff about lucky, or everything going right, or the Sox were destined or whatever. The Red Sox underperformed their pythag, that's not lucky. The Red Sox were a juggernaut. They had an above average player at every position except for 3B, and they had great depth. Dempster was worse than expected but Doubront was good. That's good depth not luck. The Red Sox saw something in Victorino, Napoli, and Drew that other teams didn't see. That's not luck, that's smart FO decisions. The Red Sox are basically a picture-perfect organization. They have everything an organization wants to have. They have a great team that just win the world series, tons of money to spend, a very smart front office, and a good farm system. That's why they won last year. They didn't win because of luck or destiny or whatever. And they did have injuries. Drew was injured for a little bit, Ellsbury got injured, Pedroia was injured all year but played through it, Victorino was injured, Clay was pitching fantastic, and got injured for most of the season. The Red Sox won because they have a great organization and will have everything they had last year next year.
|
|
|
Post by semperfisox on Jan 26, 2014 13:43:28 GMT -5
Personally I am tired of listening to Masserati on 98.5. He said that the MFY getting Tanaka made them the favorites and the Sox are doing nothing this offseason because there taking advantage of winning it all. Now let's look at the MFY's. At 1b Tex is coming back from an injury and a year older . 2b Cano is gone . SS Jeter is a year older coming back from injury. 3b ARod is suspended so far. C McCann good signing. Of you have Ells, Beltran ( who is close to 40 3 year deal), Ichiro ( another year older), Ratner and Soriano . DH , Hafner. P Tanaka, Cc, Kuroda ( older), Nova, Pineda ( I guess ). Bullpen , No Mariano. I mean I am not trying to hate on this team but for the money they spent they have a ton of questions still. There happy Arod is gone but his production is gone also. Cano was a great player. Mariano was a lockdown save. Even the starting rotation isn't that great. There best prospect is a catcher. So my conclusion is Mass is saying this to be a shit starter or he really hates the Red Sox but I am questioning his credibility. I love what the Sox are doing. You can't win with the Boston media. I didn't realize we had glaring holes we should have filled. Haha. We're stacked.
|
|
|