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Red Sox sign Chris Capuano for $2.25m with incentives
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Post by ethanbein on Feb 20, 2014 16:52:24 GMT -5
I don't understand the "I don't want him in the AL East" sentiment. Every pitcher for the Red Sox has to pitch in the AL East... Why would Capuano's numbers get hurt any worse than any other pitcher's?
Love this deal for the Sox. I thought he was going to get 8-9 million, and I think he'll be better than Dempster - he's pretty much a lock to put up a roughly league average FIP-. If one of our prospects pitches their way out of AAA, they'll get their shot in the majors one way or another. Otherwise, we now have 6 legitimate above-replacement starters on the major league club. Can't complain there.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 17:23:52 GMT -5
I don't understand the "I don't want him in the AL East" sentiment. Every pitcher for the Red Sox has to pitch in the AL East... Why would Capuano's numbers get hurt any worse than any other pitcher's? Love this deal for the Sox. I thought he was going to get 8-9 million, and I think he'll be better than Dempster - he's pretty much a lock to put up a roughly league average FIP-. If one of our prospects pitches their way out of AAA, they'll get their shot in the majors one way or another. Otherwise, we now have 6 legitimate above-replacement starters on the major league club. Can't complain there. Mostly because he's a lefty pitching in a RH friendly park with horrible splits against RH.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 17:29:09 GMT -5
What is the deal with putting Dempster on the Restricted List? Do we need to DFA someone else to add Capauno now?
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 20, 2014 17:34:41 GMT -5
I don't understand the "I don't want him in the AL East" sentiment. Every pitcher for the Red Sox has to pitch in the AL East... Why would Capuano's numbers get hurt any worse than any other pitcher's? Love this deal for the Sox. I thought he was going to get 8-9 million, and I think he'll be better than Dempster - he's pretty much a lock to put up a roughly league average FIP-. If one of our prospects pitches their way out of AAA, they'll get their shot in the majors one way or another. Otherwise, we now have 6 legitimate above-replacement starters on the major league club. Can't complain there. Mostly because he's a lefty pitching in a RH friendly park with horrible splits against RH. Pitch FX is an excellent tool to figure out what is going on with a pitcher. It becomes pretty clear from the data that Capuano's bread and butter pitch is an 89 MPH sinker. What's also clear is that when he throws that pitch in the zone to righties, it gets hit, and hit hard. Obviously in Fenway there is a wall on top of the right handed hitter so he's going to be keeping the monster seats busy. The way he can get righties out is if they aren't able to put the sinker in play before he gets to two strikes. Then that puts the changeup in play which is a good chase pitch.
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Post by borisman on Feb 20, 2014 17:39:21 GMT -5
Well it would make of a difference if he was pitching for the Rays and had to face the Sox lineup also. Now he gets to sit and watch this lineup dismantle other pitching staffs while he puts up a quality start.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 17:42:04 GMT -5
Well it would make of a difference if he was pitching for the Rays and had to face the Sox lineup also. Now he gets to sit and watch this lineup dismantle other pitching staffs while he puts up a quality start. If he's pitching for the Sox, he'll be pitching a lot more games in Fenway.
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2014 17:43:57 GMT -5
I don't understand the "I don't want him in the AL East" sentiment. Every pitcher for the Red Sox has to pitch in the AL East... Why would Capuano's numbers get hurt any worse than any other pitcher's? Love this deal for the Sox. I thought he was going to get 8-9 million, and I think he'll be better than Dempster - he's pretty much a lock to put up a roughly league average FIP-. If one of our prospects pitches their way out of AAA, they'll get their shot in the majors one way or another. Otherwise, we now have 6 legitimate above-replacement starters on the major league club. Can't complain there. Mostly because he's a lefty pitching in a RH friendly park with horrible splits against RH. Chris Capuano, last three years, versus righties: 7.62 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 4.29 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 3.93 xFIP Jon Lester, last three years, versus righties: 7.38 K/9, 3.31 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 3.97 xFIP Felix Doubront, last three years, versus righties: 8.39 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, 4.77 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 4.10 xFIP So, um, can we stop making a big deal out of this now? It's totally a red herring.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 20, 2014 18:03:00 GMT -5
If those are the only stats you care about, they look just fine.
I don't know how RH can slug over .500 and have a wOBA of .366 with such low numbers.
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2014 18:12:02 GMT -5
Because the samples are small enough that I still prefer the superior predictiveness of advanced metrics. But if you prefer:
wOBA against, versus righties, last three years: Capuano: .343 Lester: .327 Doubront: .337
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 20, 2014 18:36:10 GMT -5
Mostly because he's a lefty pitching in a RH friendly park with horrible splits against RH. Chris Capuano, last three years, versus righties: 7.62 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 4.29 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 3.93 xFIP Jon Lester, last three years, versus righties: 7.38 K/9, 3.31 BB/9, 3.96 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 3.97 xFIP Felix Doubront, last three years, versus righties: 8.39 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, 4.77 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 4.10 xFIP So, um, can we stop making a big deal out of this now? It's totally a red herring. Sure....but let's stop pretending that Capuano put up those numbers under the same conditions as Lester and Doubront. Almost all sinkerballers have trouble with opposite side hitters.
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2014 20:04:35 GMT -5
I'm not saying he doesn't have trouble with right-handers-- he certainly does, as do most left-handed pitchers. But his struggles with them are not that bad. Over the last three years, he's struck out more and walked fewer of them than Jon Lester, for instance (using K% and BB%). Even using raw wOBA against, he's only a little worse than Doubront, and you don't hear anyone complaining much about Doubront's splits. He's also been a pretty productive pitcher overall despite his splits and the fact that he's faced many more right-handed hitters than the league-average.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 20, 2014 20:44:00 GMT -5
So we've got:
"I think Workman is better than Capuano": OK, you're entitled to your opinion if this is your opinion. I tend to agree with those that are saying this underrates Capuano and overrates Workman, but whatever.
"It's bad that this pushes Workman to AAA": Look, if Workman would be SIGNIFICANTLY better than Capuano, I'm with you. But even if Workman would only be marginally better than Capuano, this deal makes sense. Signing Capuano doesn't mean you're banishing Workman to Japan for the year or something. The Red Sox used 26 pitchers last year. 26. 18 of them pitched more than 20 innings. 20 made at least 10 appearances. 8 made at least 5 starts. Workman will pitch meaningful innings in the major leagues this year, and this signing doesn't change that. It's also worth noting that it's not even like he got a ton of time in AAA last year either.
Adding a guy who steps in front of Workman on the depth chart is not a bad thing in itself. The team's job is to build the best team it can. Potentially cutting someone like Brandon Workman's 2014 MLB workload isn't going to hurt his long-term development either.
Let's put it this way: Capuano is barely making more than Franklin Morales will this year ($1.7125M, so let's call it $500k more). To those of you who don't like this signing: if the Sox had not traded Morales, would you be upset that he was still on the roster and "blocking" a younger pitcher? Or would you just kind of accept it and figure it'd work itself out?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 20, 2014 20:48:48 GMT -5
My sentiments exactly keithlaw ?@keithlaw 5m $2.9 million for Chris Capuano in the AL East? No, thanks. keithlaw ?@keithlaw 2m Sorry, $2.25 million. Still not someone I'd want in that division on a guaranteed deal. That tweet was funny to me ... sounds like an old guy complaining about the cost of a five dollar sandwich. I think this is a really good signing. It's chump change, I have a fondness for long reliever/swing men who are death on lefties but hold their own against righties, and I really do believe in the "you can never have too much pitching" adage. It's not like Brandon Workman has mastered AAA or anything ... some time refining his pitches could actually do him good for the long haul. And if Capuano's not actually any good, well not much harm done, and you turn to Workman (or someone else) later. Once again, Ben Cherington makes a move to buy out some downside risk for almost no real cost. The man knows how to hedge. $2.25 million is nothing to pay when weighed against the fairly good chance that Capuano helps the team.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 20, 2014 20:50:44 GMT -5
My sentiments exactly keithlaw ?@keithlaw 5m $2.9 million for Chris Capuano in the AL East? No, thanks. keithlaw ?@keithlaw 2m Sorry, $2.25 million. Still not someone I'd want in that division on a guaranteed deal. That tweet was funny to me ... sounds like an old guy complaining about the cost of a five dollar sandwich. I think this is a really good signing. It's chump change, I have a fondness for long reliever/swing men who are death on lefties but hold their own against righties, and I really do believe in the "you can never have too much pitching" adage. It's not like Brandon Workman has mastered AAA or anything ... some time refining his pitches could actually do him good for the long haul. And if Capuano's not actually any good, well not much harm done, and you turn to Workman (or someone else) later. Once again, Ben Cherington makes a move to buy out some downside risk for almost no real cost. The man knows how to hedge. $2.25 million is nothing to pay when weighed against the fairly good chance that Capuano helps the team. brianthetaoist New Member brianthetaoist Avatar Posts: 666 Quick! post something to get off of 666!
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 20, 2014 21:10:26 GMT -5
OK, since we're off the subject, I'll run with it since I love this story ... 666 is actually not the real "number of the beast." It was a mistake in transcription at some point in Biblical history; the most ancient New Testaments show it was actually 616. So, really, I blew past my number of the beast a while ago and thousands of movies, heavy metal songs, etc, are totally meaningless ...
Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled programming.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 20, 2014 22:34:15 GMT -5
keithlaw ?@keithlaw 5m $2.9 million for Chris Capuano in the AL East? No, thanks. keithlaw ?@keithlaw 2m Sorry, $2.25 million. Still not someone I'd want in that division on a guaranteed deal. Those are silly tweets. 2.25 (or even 2.9) million, is nothing to the Red Sox. It might as well be a league minimum deal. No risk at all. If he stinks, he can be cut without shedding a tear.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 20, 2014 22:38:11 GMT -5
OK, since we're off the subject, I'll run with it since I love this story ... 666 is actually not the real "number of the beast." It was a mistake in transcription at some point in Biblical history; the most ancient New Testaments show it was actually 616. So, really, I blew past my number of the beast a while ago and thousands of movies, heavy metal songs, etc, are totally meaningless ... Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled programming. Blessed are the cheesemakers, etc...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 20, 2014 22:48:09 GMT -5
Capuano is a good depth signing. At some point early on should Buchholz goes down or some other starter it's most likely that Capuano is the best option. Webster needs more time in AAA. Barnes, Ranaudo, and Owens aren't ready yet. Capuano makes sense. It's either him or Workman and if there is an injury one will be in the pen and the other in the rotation. It's called deep depth. Find a guy who's inexpensive and better than your typical replacement pitcher, something the Sox failed to do in 2011.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Feb 20, 2014 22:54:49 GMT -5
Bad move. I don't think he will pitch well in Fenwey, which is very reasonable expectation based on history. If Workman struggles he could be optioned to AAA and be replaced by another pitching prosect performing well in minor. If Capuano struggles Farrell keeps him on the mound because he is a veteran with no option and guaranteed money. Also we had better give opportunity to our young guns for the future.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 20, 2014 23:00:48 GMT -5
Bad move. I don't think he will pitch well in Fenwey, which is very reasonable expectation based on history. If Workman struggles he could be optioned to AAA and be replaced by another pitching prosect performing well in minor. If Capuano struggles Farrell keeps him on the mound because he is a veteran with no option and guaranteed money. Also we had better give opportunity to our young guns for the future. Whether or not Capuano stays in the rotation or on the team is not Farrell's decision. It's Cherington's.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 21, 2014 0:36:39 GMT -5
If Capuano struggles he turns into a very good underpaid LOOGY to keep or trade.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 21, 2014 1:38:50 GMT -5
Bad move. I don't think he will pitch well in Fenwey, which is very reasonable expectation based on history. If Workman struggles he could be optioned to AAA and be replaced by another pitching prosect performing well in minor. If Capuano struggles Farrell keeps him on the mound because he is a veteran with no option and guaranteed money. Also we had better give opportunity to our young guns for the future. Whether or not Capuano stays in the rotation or on the team is not Farrell's decision. It's Cherington's. Do you have a link for that, or a reference? Coming to you from the great northwest
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 21, 2014 4:59:31 GMT -5
I'd have traded Dempster for Capuano and $11m AAV.
ADD: In an ideal world, players meet their incentives because that generally is the objective. The $11M is more than Capuano and Sizemore's incentives combined.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Feb 21, 2014 5:53:14 GMT -5
I haven't got time to think about it much right now but is it possible the Sox chose to just make Workman a valued reliever and make Capuano the middle infield reliever/spot starter? Is it possible they just chose to make Workman a 7th inning guy, or even setup guy potentially right from the start? He seemed to give them good innings in a similar role last fall. Maybe they just chose to make Workman a solid reliever up front? The guy seems to be able to throw strikes and he looks like he can handle pressure well.
I don't think it is necessarily the case that they start Workman in AAA.
Regarding Capuano as a LOOGY, we seem to have quite a bit of depth there now but being able to shut down left handed hitters would seem to be a valued asset multiple times per game.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 21, 2014 7:52:41 GMT -5
Capuano is just cheap insurance should they need a 5th starter for a short while. I would hope that they would use him sparingly at Fenway where he likely will be crushed by RH hitters. All in all, its short money and I don't consider this signing to be block any of the Red Sox young starting pitchers. If they do well in Pawtucket and there is a need for a starter on the Red Sox sometime in 2014, I don't think there will be any hesitancy to bring up a Barnes, Ranuado or shift Workman from the bullpen to the starting rotation.
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