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Post by soxcentral on Feb 25, 2014 13:25:07 GMT -5
I think you really nailed the basic sentiment this organization now tries to operate from right there. Your upside guys come from your own system, Trey Ball type selections and such, because the downside is a lost talent and not 10% of your payroll tied down for years. Free agency is how you hedge your bets against complete failure from your upside prospect and typically not much more.
Of course that only works when you actually have upside types in your system.
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Post by moonstone2 on Feb 26, 2014 12:50:36 GMT -5
I don't think I have ever characterized your argument that way. You are creating a straw man to attack a straw man, quite clever. You did argue that Jimenez had a "lower floor", and I find that argument preposterous. Capuano could be well below replacement level. I don't see how you can have a floor much lower than that.
To be quite honest I have lost track of all of your various arguments and false accusations of "straw man" creation. I don't really have a problem with your conclusions but how you get there is disturbing. You seem to look strictly at a players past performance to form your opinions. It doesn't matter if he got there by throwing slop or by throwing gas. Computer projections are useful but there are some instances where they don't apply. By refusing to acknowledge that, I think you show a lack of respect for the game, and I am offended by that. Any model, baseball oriented or not, is only as useful as the person using it.
Though not all pitchers will experience an extreme drop off in performance once they switch to the harder league or divisional opponents, some will. Though not all pitchers will experience an increase in homeruns if they pitch regularly in Fenway, some will.
A sinker is generally not a good pitch to throw to an opposite side hitter because they can see it well and the pitch tails straight into their hitting zone. For that reason there aren't a lot of lefties who feature that pitch. Because that pitch is so easy to hit, many sinkerballers have a HR/FB ratio versus opposite side hitters that is so high that they are either limited to relief or they wash out entirely.
Capuano's sinker is already ineffective versus righties. They have hit .361/.505 against it and remember this includes pitchers and the other dreck that is in the National League. I would argue that there is a good chance that is going up. He has a HR/FB ratio with the sinker versus righties of 11% which would be roughly average. I would argue that Fenway and the appearance of so many good power righties in the AL East will increase that too.
In short, I think that you are incorrect in your assumption that Capuano's numbers are the product of quality pitching and not poor competition and/or larger parks. If he pitches like Bruce Chen, who is a similar pitcher did in Fenway, he's not going to be worth $2.5M. But of course the computer says differently so you probably don't care.
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