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2014 MLB Post-Draft Discussion Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2014 22:59:36 GMT -5
Jesse Smithey ?@prepxtra 6 min. Text message from Oak Ridge pitcher Kevin Steen confirms tweet by @dccatvoice that he is signing with the Red Sox. Won't go to UT. Just to make sure Speier tweeting that he signed for over slot. Can someone tell us that figure, and Fisher and Beeks, too? Please?
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Post by soxcentral on Jun 29, 2014 10:39:51 GMT -5
So most of the heavy lifting appears to be done. According to the signings thread, all that is left to decide are:
RND PICK PLAYER POS 7 224 Reed Reilly RHP
21 644 Ian Rice C (summer follow)
25 764 Gabriel Klobosits RHP
32 974 Case Rolen RHP 33 1,004 Luis Alvarado OF
Still hoping for Alvarado, not getting my hopes up though.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 29, 2014 12:08:17 GMT -5
Agree. I am hoping for Alvarado.
I'm curious about Rolen though. I haven't seen a scouting report. He doesn't appear ranked anywhere.
we really need the signing bonuses for Steen, Fisher, and Beeks especially. And Reilly, assuming he signs.
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Post by rpiguy on Jun 29, 2014 17:40:52 GMT -5
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Post by edwardcc on Jun 29, 2014 22:53:05 GMT -5
It appears Reed Reilly has signed as his girlfriend is tweeting he has and they have booked their flight to Boston. I didn't put it in the official signing thread since I am not 100% sure of the relationship and it's 2nd hand unconfirmed info.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 30, 2014 7:38:26 GMT -5
I didnt care for last year's draft (Ive made it clear I hated the Ball pick, with 40 career IP), but Reilly would make the top 20 picks signed. Given how weak the A-/A/A+ teams looked as far as prospects go, this should help restock the low minors a bit
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 30, 2014 16:23:05 GMT -5
Someone ought to tell Steen he gas a typo in his twitter handle. ( ie cricle vs circle ).
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 30, 2014 18:08:34 GMT -5
Jesse Smithey ?@prepxtra 6 min. Text message from Oak Ridge pitcher Kevin Steen confirms tweet by @dccatvoice that he is signing with the Red Sox. Won't go to UT. Just to make sure Speier tweeting that he signed for over slot. Can someone tell us that figure, and Fisher and Beeks, too? Please? Looks like $255,000 (see the news only thread). If this is correct, I don't think we have money for any more surprises. Harris, I would think, has to be somewhat overslot ($150k?). That leaves little to nothing extra of the 5% overage we've already dipped into. Still a good haul this year. 2014 Sox draft.xlsx (19.31 KB)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2014 22:34:06 GMT -5
Steen got slot 175 money, which is 10th pick in the sixth round. In three years, it could be the slot for a lower 6th round pick. So that gives you the idea of the decision he had to make: after not being in anyone's top 500, do I gamble that after three years in college, I'll be the number 185 guy in the country? I could get hurt and lose it all. Also, how much do I want to go to college?
And the summary with him included:
Known contracts are $13,000 under slot.
Signed but unrevealed: +150,000 (guessed by all) Fisher +0, 60,000 (both me), 75,000 (jakovos), or 150,000 (Mike) Beeks +0, 11,500 (both me) or 36,500 (Mike and jakovos) Reilly +0 (me) or 50,000 (jakovos) Harris
Worst case scenario based on these guesses is that we have spent every penny, including the 5% wiggle room.
Best case is that we have $180K of over-slot money money for Rice, Rolen, and/or Alvarado. That is based on Beeks and Harris both signing for $100K, like Whitson (as Judy Tenuta used to say, it could happen) and Reilly for slot instead of just over, like Chavis.
Likeliest might be about $100,000 left, enough to go after one guy, probably.
So knowing those missing four numbers is everything. If we actually had 180K to play with, we could offer slot 205 money to both Rolen and Alvarado, whose consensus ratings I had as 414 and 485.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 1, 2014 5:28:02 GMT -5
Steen got slot 175 money, which is 10th pick in the sixth round. In three years, it could be the slot for a lower 6th round pick. So that gives you the idea of the decision he had to make: after not being in anyone's top 500, do I gamble that after three years in college, I'll be the number 185 guy in the country? I could get hurt and lose it all. Also, how much do I want to go to college?I agree with everything but what's in bold, never underestimate the desire to get laid before you get paid.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 1, 2014 8:55:25 GMT -5
So knowing those missing four numbers is everything. If we actually had 180K to play with, we could offer slot 205 money to both Rolen and Alvarado, whose consensus ratings I had as 414 and 485. Luckily, the Sox FO does know those 4 numbers
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 1, 2014 15:21:37 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 2, 2014 3:02:47 GMT -5
So knowing those missing four numbers is everything. If we actually had 180K to play with, we could offer slot 205 money to both Rolen and Alvarado, whose consensus ratings I had as 414 and 485. Luckily, the Sox FO does know those 4 numbers I wanna play along! Seriously, one of the things that makes baseball the best sport on the planet is the transparency. There's are no playbooks that the teams are using that you don't know. The game is all about determining which of the universally known options is best. And thanks to the data revolution, we are in possession of a very large percentage of the relevant information. Can we get to 100% on this, pretty please? Reilly signing under slot obviously helps. Worst case is that we needed to do that to fit him in. Likeliest case is $175K left of wiggle room, best case is $235K. And his deal makes me more hopeful that Beeks and Harris (especially the latter) are not much over slot, if at all.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 2, 2014 7:12:34 GMT -5
Yeah, with this deal, I'm starting to to think there might be a last minute (or last week) above slot deal for Alvarado, Rolen, or someone else. They're pretty much guaranteed to be in the 5% overage unless Beeks signed for slot and all our Fisher estimates are WAY high (Beeks at slot and Fisher for $119,000 would get us to to the slot number - that ain't happening). So once in the 5% bonus, we might as well do our best to spend it all.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 2, 2014 17:51:01 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallismlb 7s Late-rd bonus I hadn't noticed before: redsox 20th-rder Devon Fisher got $300k. Virginia HS C, defense > bat, chance for power. @mlbdraft
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 2, 2014 18:06:29 GMT -5
Yeah, with this deal, I'm starting to to think there might be a last minute (or last week) above slot deal for Alvarado, Rolen, or someone else. They're pretty much guaranteed to be in the 5% overage unless Beeks signed for slot and all our Fisher estimates are WAY high (Beeks at slot and Fisher for $119,000 would get us to to the slot number - that ain't happening). So once in the 5% bonus, we might as well do our best to spend it all. We're officially in the overage. My calculations is that there is approximately $188k remaining (in addition to the $100k per post-10th round pick) to sign Rolen/Alvarado/Rice, etc. My guess is that it won't be sufficient to get any of them signed.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 2, 2014 18:49:51 GMT -5
Yeah, with this deal, I'm starting to to think there might be a last minute (or last week) above slot deal for Alvarado, Rolen, or someone else. They're pretty much guaranteed to be in the 5% overage unless Beeks signed for slot and all our Fisher estimates are WAY high (Beeks at slot and Fisher for $119,000 would get us to to the slot number - that ain't happening). So once in the 5% bonus, we might as well do our best to spend it all. We're officially in the overage. My calculations is that there is approximately $188k remaining (in addition to the $100k per post-10th round pick) to sign Rolen/Alvarado/Rice, etc. My guess is that it won't be sufficient to get any of them signed. If you mean $188,000 plus the $100,000, for a total of $288,000 then you have to be assuming Beeks and Harris sign for $100k only. I'm not sure that's likely based on what I have seen/read. Are you privy to some not-yet-public info? I have assumed $150k for each of them, which means $100k, + $87,665 for a bonus of $187,665 that the Sox have left to entice another draftee to sign. That seems light for Alvarado or Rolen, although stranger things have happened. I had Fisher at $250k, so this news shaves $50k over what I had been thinking. Good chance we're done, unless something unusual happens or another $100k or less guy decides to sign (Klobosits?). If we're done, still a very good haul getting top 21 picks signed.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 2, 2014 18:54:52 GMT -5
I think the signings are done. They have $170k left in the 5% overage, IF no other over-slot bonuses come out from guys who already signed.
Rolen/Alvarado are sadly pipe dreams. Nebraska U. is starting to really cut into Boston's prospect pool. That said, they seem to have gotten a lot of picks on board, and it may be a pretty solid draft. My (complete guess) prediction is that while it no way will touch 2011, it could end up better better than 2009/2013.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 2, 2014 23:09:09 GMT -5
Everything that irked me about last year's draft they got right in this year's draft. Drafted a lot of good players and maximized signings consistent with the spending limit.
In retrospect, of course, whiffing (it seems) on properly evaluating Denney's makeup was the biggest mistake, and hopefully that will not be repeated either.
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Post by eagleeye9184 on Jul 3, 2014 8:46:54 GMT -5
In going back and comparing where players fell in the draft versus the pre-season hype, here is a Top 300 preseason list compiled by Matt Garrioch of www.minorleagueball. www.minorleagueball.com/2014/2/7/5387356/mlb-draft-top-300-prospects-2014Here are the players the Sox picked, and where they were ranked. Michael Chavis (19) Karsten Whitson (34) Sam Travis (56) Michael Kopech (78) Trenton Kemp (93) Jake Cosart (107) Josh Pennington (143) Josh Ockimey (144) Ryan Harris (206) JJ Matijevic (210) My first impressions are: The Whitson pick looks like a steal. If he's healthy, he could be a tremendous value. The Ockimey pick may have been a surprise for where he was taken, but he was a well-regarded player coming into this draft season. Kemp being rated in the top 100, and going at pick #464, seems to be a value pick. And Pennington going in rd 29, with pick #884, also seems to be a value. I know he's had the TJ, but he was a top 150 prospect prior to the season. Maybe the new market inefficiency is to draft TJ pitchers, get the surgery and redshirt them, in effect. Finally, I loved clicking here to see the signings. It was like Christmas morning as a kid, with the anticipation at bringing this class into the Red Sox organization. At least is was something to look forward to, as the big club is struggling.... Thank you to all who contributed to this thread. Enjoy the Fourth, everyone.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 3, 2014 12:46:06 GMT -5
"Maybe the new market inefficiency is to draft TJ pitchers, get the surgery and redshirt them"
Then the NEW new market inefficiency will be to R5D those kids when they are in A+ ball after four years... Interested to see how that year of development hurts. But you figure many pitchers dont pitch much till year after draft anyway, so maybe lose just a few a months in reality.
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 3, 2014 16:15:23 GMT -5
"Maybe the new market inefficiency is to draft TJ pitchers, get the surgery and redshirt them" Then the NEW new market inefficiency will be to R5D those kids when they are in A+ ball after four years... Interested to see how that year of development hurts. But you figure many pitchers dont pitch much till year after draft anyway, so maybe lose just a few a months in reality. In the late 90's I heard on ESPN that if you were an up and coming HS pitcher and you had the choice that you actually should have the TJ surgery because you actually come back stronger. Take into account years of improvement in the surgery and rehab process and it's not a dealbreaker anymore by any means. Sure, it's not 100% but also take into account a few extra less miles on the shoulder in an unprofessional environment and like you said, how much time do they really lose?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 3, 2014 16:47:42 GMT -5
"Maybe the new market inefficiency is to draft TJ pitchers, get the surgery and redshirt them" Then the NEW new market inefficiency will be to R5D those kids when they are in A+ ball after four years... Interested to see how that year of development hurts. But you figure many pitchers dont pitch much till year after draft anyway, so maybe lose just a few a months in reality. In the late 90's I heard on ESPN that if you were an up and coming HS pitcher and you had the choice that you actually should have the TJ surgery because you actually come back stronger. Take into account years of improvement in the surgery and rehab process and it's not a dealbreaker anymore by any means. Sure, it's not 100% but also take into account a few extra less miles on the shoulder in an unprofessional environment and like you said, how much time do they really lose? It's a myth that's perpetuated by how hard most people work rehabbing their arm. They become stronger because they work harder at getting strong. But TJS takes at least 18 months away and then limits innings by a great deal for young kids for 2-3 years after they're back. For example, RDLR is 26 and limited to about 130 innings this year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 7, 2014 14:35:30 GMT -5
Is Pennington officially out then? Has he turned down the Sox offers for good that has been leaked out? I'd think they possibly have a decent chance of him signing with the TJ chance and that amount left of any of the kids left.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 7, 2014 15:26:04 GMT -5
Is Pennington officially out then? Has he turned down the Sox offers for good that has been leaked out? I'd think they possibly have a decent chance of him signing with the TJ chance and that amount left of any of the kids left. Hasn't he been signed for a long time?
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