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2014 MLB Post-Draft Discussion Thread
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 11, 2014 16:45:19 GMT -5
I'm wondering what the board members with more knowledge of the draft think about the picks after round 10 in regards to the signing strategy. It is obvious we can't sign all of them, and as we start giving out overslot bonuses our chance to sign others will diminish. Personally for me I like the higher risk guys with these picks, and in general with these picks would rather have a high school guy instead of college. Unfortunately the are also the guys who require overslot bonuses. I like Fischer's profile a lot, and at Mike's projection I think he could be the best value sign. Sounds similar to Vazquez, strong armed catcher who has some power. Kemp, Hill, and Peterson would be my next priorities. Matijevic fits my target profile also. I'm not sold on Beeks, but I think he would be a good sign as a reliever. Two years ago, they drafted 18 HS, JC, or CC guys and 12 4-year college guys. They signed just 6 of the 18 HS, etc. guys, and 8 of the 12 college. Last year, it was 21 (signed 9) and 9 (signed 7). This year was very different: 15 of each. And it seems to me that all but 4 of the HS, etc. kids are in serious play (exceptions being Kendall and Gretler, and the less highly regarded Puskarich and Wilpon). Peterson is clearly the top realistic priority; I believe they'll have as much as $500K to offer him. Fisher's acting like he plans to sign. Hill is already on board. I think Kemp is happening based on where he was drafted. Matijevic and Rice you'd classify as hopeful. Rolen and Alvarado, meanwhile look like guys they could pursue if Peterson is a no-go (although there are certainly scenarios where they could sign all three). I'd like to see them sign all of these guys, of course, and I don't think that's outside of the realm of possibility. The fact that they drafted fewer such guys may indicate they eliminated many more extreme long-shots. |
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Post by Steve Henley on Jun 11, 2014 18:00:42 GMT -5
Two years ago, they drafted 18 HS, JC, or CC guys and 12 4-year college guys. They signed just 6 of the 18 HS, etc. guys, and 8 of the 12 college. Last year, it was 21 (signed 9) and 9 (signed 7). This year was very different: 15 of each. And it seems to me that all but 4 of the HS, etc. kids are in serious play (exceptions being Kendall and Gretler, and the less highly regarded Puskarich and Wilpon). Peterson is clearly the top realistic priority; I believe they'll have as much as $500K to offer him. Fisher's acting like he plans to sign. Hill is already on board. I think Kemp is happening based on where he was drafted. Matijevic and Rice you'd classify as hopeful. Rolen and Alvarado, meanwhile look like guys they could pursue if Peterson is a no-go (although there are certainly scenarios where they could sign all three). I'd like to see them sign all of these guys, of course, and I don't think that's outside of the realm of possibility. The fact that they drafted fewer such guys may indicate they eliminated many more extreme long-shots. Agreed. There was also a lot less filler drafted than in the past (besides catcher which is a necessary evil). I think there's several reasons for this: 1. 2014 was a much deeper draft than 2012 and 2013, so there were more interesting guys available in the later rounds. 2. They got caught with their pants down last year with all the bonus money left over. The players worth signing didn't want to, and the guys who wanted to weren't worth their asking price. This made the Sox do their homework and get better estimates of players' asking prices so they could be more realistic. 3. They determined the lower level rosters were thinner on talent than they have been in the past. Therefore, rather than going for a few big fish who were unlikely to sign and taking filler with the rest they took a lot of solid guys who are signable. Gives them a chance to restock those rosters quickly. 4. More teams this year tried to punt on round 5-10 to save money for tough signs which allowed some good talent to fall, especially the injured guys (Whitson, Beeks, Shepherd). |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 11, 2014 23:30:11 GMT -5
Per the last post on the signing thread... They getting Kemp done...Another OF that matters. Rejoice fellas.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 11, 2014 23:38:05 GMT -5
Per the last post on the signing thread... They getting Kemp done...Another OF that matters. Rejoice fellas. LOVE IT |
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Post by rpiguy on Jun 12, 2014 0:34:25 GMT -5
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Post by rpiguy on Jun 12, 2014 1:07:42 GMT -5
Other draft picks on summer league rosters:
Francisco Tellez: Peninsula Oilers (Alaska Baseball League)
Gabe Klobosits: Brazos Valley Bombers (Texas Collegiate League)
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 12, 2014 4:07:22 GMT -5
Ben Moore should be bolded in the signings thread. He has signed.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,198 
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Post by jimoh on Jun 12, 2014 5:59:44 GMT -5
Top 60 times, 2013 (class of 2014) www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=91631 6.28 Carl Chester National Showcase Lake Brantley Longwood FL 2 6.31 Denz'l Chapman ... 7 6.43 Michael Gettys [#51 pick] National Showcase Gainesville Gainesville GA 8 6.44 Derek Hill [#23 pick] National Showcase Elk Grove Sacramento CA 9 6.45 Connor Brady South Top Prospect Showcase Plano Sr. Plano TX 10 6.46 Matthew Collins National Showcase Memorial Houston TX 10 6.46 Trenton Kemp National Showcase Buchanan Clovis CA |
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 12, 2014 7:41:01 GMT -5
Great to see Trenton Kemp and Devon Fisher signing!
If only we can sign JJ Matijevic I'm totally happy
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2014 8:33:30 GMT -5
Doing a great job on signing the hs kids quickly. One of my pet peeves is the late signee who doesn't even play his draft year. Get these kids in the GCL this year and instructional league. They'll be ready to succeed at Lowell next year or if there's an advanced one or two, maybe Greenville.
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 8:42:20 GMT -5
I have to say, I'm loving this moved-up signing deadline. It's so stupid that they used to force overslot guys to wait until the last minute to sign, thus wasting several months of prime development time.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 12, 2014 8:48:17 GMT -5
When is the new deadline?
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Post by kman22 on Jun 12, 2014 8:50:40 GMT -5
When is the new deadline? July 12th, I believe. |
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Post by mannofsteele on Jun 12, 2014 9:08:24 GMT -5
Someone else posted July 18th previously. I like that Kemp signed, I was hoping for a limb on the Peterson end, but its always good to get an advanced catcher into the system on defense.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2014 9:22:01 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2014 9:24:45 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 12, 2014 9:26:03 GMT -5
Correct, 5pm ET on the 18th.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 12, 2014 9:27:44 GMT -5
I can confidently say that with Beeks, Whitson, Kemp, Hill, and Fischer already signed I like 2014 picks post round 10 more than 2013.
Peterson would have taken the cake but would love to also get Matijevic. Sounds similar to Chavis
Edit: Would love to get Chavis into a uni soon.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2014 10:07:38 GMT -5
Updated predictions for the 2014 signing season. Same general disclaimers as the earlier draft.
TOP TEN ROUNDS
All Likely to Sign. Some Already Signed.
Round, Player, Projected Bonus
1 (26) Michael Chavis $1,900,000
1 (33) Michael Kopech $1,600,000
2 (67) Sam Travis $850,000
3 (103) Jake Cosart $500,000
4 Kevin McAvoy $10,000
5 Josh Ockimey $50,000
6 Danny Mars $150,000
7 Reed Reilly $200,000
8 Ben Moore $50,000
9 Kevin Steen $50,000
10 Cole Sturgeon $10,000
AFTER 10TH ROUND, ABOVE $100K BONUS POTENTIAL
Likely to Sign. Some Already Signed.
Round, Player, Projected Bonus (First $100K does not count towards bonus cap)
11 Karsten Whitson $300,000 ($200,000 towards cap)
12 Jalen Beeks $300,000 ($200,000 towards cap)
13 Chandler Shepherd $200,000 ($100,000 towards cap)
15 Trenton Kemp $200,000 ($100,000 towards cap)
20 Devon Fisher $300,000 ($200,000 towards cap)
AFTER 10TH ROUND, ABOVE $100K BONUS POTENTIAL
On the Fence But Solid Shot at Signing
Round, Player, Projected Bonus (First $100K does not count towards bonus cap)
21 Ian Rice $200,000 ($100,000 towards cap)
22 JJ Matijevic $250,000 ($150,000 towards cap)
AFTER 10TH ROUND, $100K OR BELOW BONUS POTENTIAL
Likely to Sign. Some Already Signed.
Round, Player (Do not count towards bonus cap)
14 Jordan Procyshen
16 Michael Gunn
18 Jordan Betts
19 Tyler Hill
27 Taylor Nunez
29 Josh Pennington
31 Alex Mckeon
34 Kuehl McEachern
37 Hector Lorenzana
AFTER 10TH ROUND, $100K OR BELOW BONUS POTENTIAL
No Word on Status
Round, Player (Do not count towards bonus cap)
23 Derek Miller
38 Brandon Show
40 Joseph Winterburn
WILD CARDS
After 10th round, possible signs
Could potentially get over a little over $100K if there are available funds.
Round, Player
17 Jeremy Rivera
24 Sisco Tellez
25 Gabe Kobosits
26 Ryan Harris (PG: 189)
32 Case Rolen (PG: 298)
33 Luis Alvarado (BA: 493)
UNLIKELY TO SIGN
28 David Peterson
30 Jeren Kendall
35 Ross Puskarich
36 Bradley Wilpon
Total spent towards cap using these projections, not counting any bonuses over $100K for Wild Cards: $6,420,000
Red Sox Cap: $6,373,300
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,691,965
Signing Deadline: 5:00 pm ET on July 18.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 12, 2014 10:22:22 GMT -5
Excellent job so far. Question except for the injured pitchers which I love the fact our medical takes over there rehab. Do we have the slots open for the usual 20 to 25 signees? Plus international and a couple of undrafted? I have to think trades and or cuts coming? Or they don't plan on having some of these kids get going this season.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2014 10:40:44 GMT -5
While Peterson seems doubtful, don't write im off yet. He's saying no, but if we have $500k or 600k to put in front of him, he might decide to take it. Not sure that would be available, but maybe if they decide to go the 5% overage it might be. Let's see what the bonuses are like for these reported signings.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 12, 2014 10:44:50 GMT -5
Trenton Kemp is signed for 250K not outrageous money. Good sign.
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Post by joshv02 on Jun 12, 2014 10:46:54 GMT -5
15 Trenton Kemp $250,000 ($150,000 towards cap) Well done. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 12:23:55 GMT -5
My initial reaction is that Ockimey was not worth $170K overslot.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 12, 2014 12:29:07 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallismlb 3 min. Vertaling weergeven
5th-rder Josh Ockimey, redsox agree on $450k bonus (pick 164 value = $282,800). Slugging HS 1B from Philadelphia. @mlbdraft
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