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Post by grandsalami on Jun 12, 2014 12:31:30 GMT -5
My initial reaction is that Ockimey was not worth $170K overslot. I bet they had to go overslot like that, in order for him to forgo his IU commit, given he was highly recruited by IU |
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Post by okin15 on Jun 12, 2014 12:34:36 GMT -5
I am projecting (guessing) Steen at a much higher number. Probably $200-250k.
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Post by ikonos on Jun 12, 2014 12:34:41 GMT -5
The site projection was 50K bonus. I am surprised for such a low projection for a HS kid. Given the overslot bonus he got, Sox saw something better.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 12, 2014 12:35:46 GMT -5
Looks like we really underestimated Ockimey's commitment. I think Mike had $50k? I assume two things... 1 the red sox have some idea what it will take for the other big names and 2 they dont want to eat $600k like last year.
Im just a little curious if a prospect like Chavis could get more by waiting (agree to a minimum, but take any leftover once the HS kids sign or dont sign. Im sure it doesnt happen, but its the kind of handshake deal that would be mutually beneficial if ever could.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 12, 2014 12:46:57 GMT -5
Mars got slot? Will Chavis play for free?
Really no idea where we stand on budget... But lotta good signings, just without a lot of savings so far...
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 12, 2014 12:49:49 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see where they find the extra money through under-slot signings. My guess is McAvoy, then slight savings on Chavis and Kopech, in addition to some savings on Moore and Sturgeon. I also personally don't see Whitson getting 300k, but I've been wrong on these things before.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 12, 2014 12:57:14 GMT -5
None of this is surprising to the Red Sox. They likely knew exactly what it would take when they picked him. They have a thorough plan and are likely following it to a T.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 12, 2014 12:57:59 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see where they find the extra money through under-slot signings. My guess is McAvoy, then slight savings on Chavis and Kopech, in addition to some savings on Moore and Sturgeon. I also personally don't see Whitson getting 300k, but I've been wrong on these things before. I agree I don't think Whitson is getting close to 300k. I bet it's right around the 100K bonus. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2014 13:06:59 GMT -5
Callis tweeted the Ockimay signing was for 450k. He had slot at 282k. A lot higher than the speculated 50k. Are we going to go over alotted amount?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 12, 2014 13:07:50 GMT -5
Too early to tell. We'll have an anticipated schedule once the top picks are signed.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 12, 2014 13:09:05 GMT -5
Even Mars signing at slot saves $10,000 (the 5%). Kopech gets the Sox $160k if he signed at 1.6 as suggested.
Assuming that all we care about is budget + 5%, between just Kopech (-161.9k), Kemp (150k, Ockimey (153.6k), and Mars (-10.59k), Sox are $130K over the 5% budget right now, so they have to find that money in the top 10, plus for any signings past the 10th round. Figure it'll be close to the limit this year, since they have better quality and less savings in the top 10 than last year.
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 13:11:06 GMT -5
None of this is surprising to the Red Sox. They likely knew exactly what it would take when they picked him. They have a thorough plan and are likely following it to a T. Yeah, the fact that he signed this early almost certainly means this is roughly the range they had in mind when they picked him. My issue is that I'm not sure he's talented enough to be worth that much cash, but that's based off like two videos and a scouting report from the internet, so who knows. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2014 13:12:30 GMT -5
Here's my excel spreadsheet where I track the signings and the over/under slot and the pool remaining, including the 5% overage. I have some projections in there, too. The spreadsheet uses the projected signing bonus, unless there is something entered into the actual signing bonus column. I hope it was added properly 2014 Sox draft.xlsx (19.41 KB) |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 12, 2014 13:18:39 GMT -5
I think this pretty much puts Peterson out of range, unless Whitson and Beeks both sign for $100k. But I doubt that happens. Not that Peterson was much of a possibility to begin with, but I thought they had a chance using the $50k projection for Ockimey and $150k for Mars. Thought they might have $500k for Peterson, but I don't see that happening now.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2014 13:25:06 GMT -5
The only thing surprising to me about the money Ockimey is getting is that they waited so long to take him. The fact that they were willing to sign him for so much makes me believe they obviously like him a great deal as a player. And the fact that they signed him so quickly makes me think that they knew what it would take to sign him. So, why did they take McAvoy in the 4th and wait until the 5th to pick Ockimey? Were they so confident that nobody else was going to pick him? Are we way off on McAvoy's bonus number as well?
Beyond that, I can't say/speculate whether this was an overpay or good value or what have you. He's obviously a guy the Red Sox targeted specifically, and I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.
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Post by joshv02 on Jun 12, 2014 13:26:43 GMT -5
Here's my excel spreadsheet where I track the signings and the over/under slot and the pool remaining, including the 5% overage. I have some projections in there, too. The spreadsheet uses the projected signing bonus, unless there is something entered into the actual signing bonus column. I hope it was added properly View AttachmentAwesome. Thank you for this. |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2014 13:30:02 GMT -5
Didn't see that coming.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 12, 2014 13:32:56 GMT -5
So Ockimey=Longhi. 2. They got caught with their pants down last year with all the bonus money left over. The players worth signing didn't want to, and the guys who wanted to weren't worth their asking price. This made the Sox do their homework and get better estimates of players' asking prices so they could be more realistic. I suspect they may have adjusted in the manner Henley suggests: they went to the players with a bunch of offers, propbably starting with the top guys (Peterson) and then moving down quickly this year instead of holding off in case the top guys change their minds (the Sheffield/Boldt issue last year). That is why Peterson/Kendall quickly rejected, and unlike last year, the Sox then quickly moved on to plan B for that money, Kemp, Ockimey & Fisher and a bunch of $50,000 to $100K plus kids. |
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Post by joshv02 on Jun 12, 2014 13:35:01 GMT -5
Does Reed Reilly have another year of college eligibility?
Mike: out of curiosity, why did you expect $50k? I see a HS senior picked in the 5th round with a div I scholarship to a real school - not sure the incentive to take $50k. Was it just the lack of BA (etc) ranking?
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Post by joshv02 on Jun 12, 2014 13:36:51 GMT -5
That is why Peterson/Kendall quickly rejected, and unlike last year, the Sox then quickly moved on to plan B for that money, Kemp, Ockimey & Fisher and a bunch of $50,000 to $100K plus kids. No; Ockimey was a 5th rounder. He was expected to sign when drafted and would be unrelated to Peterson/Kendall. He signed for what they expected pre-draft, I'm sure. If Mike had told you it would take $300k instead of $50k I doubt you'd think otherwise. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2014 13:41:38 GMT -5
Does Reed Reilly have another year of college eligibility? I believe so. He redshirted in 2011. |
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Post by joshv02 on Jun 12, 2014 13:56:06 GMT -5
Thanks, James.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Jun 12, 2014 14:02:51 GMT -5
My initial reaction is that Ockimey was not worth $170K overslot. $450K certainly heightens expectations for him. I said this in another thread, but his odd swing seems to be defined by how he shifts his weight, as opposed to, say, a big hole or a loop of some sort. I'm no expert and I've not seen him in person, but, though highly pronounced, you'd think it would be more easily correctable than other mechanical problems, no? |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 12, 2014 14:06:38 GMT -5
Mike: out of curiosity, why did you expect $50k? I see a HS senior picked in the 5th round with a div I scholarship to a real school - not sure the incentive to take $50k. Was it just the lack of BA (etc) ranking? The front office has historically made some attempts to get under-the-radar signings for small dollars in Rounds 5-6. Some examples are Mike Augliera, Mickey Pena, Henry Ramos, Seth Scwindenhammer, Justin Haley, Zach Daeges. Ockimey was not on my radar, nor on any of the other pro scouting services's radars as far as I can tell. While I think prep players obviously have more leverage and options, the fact that he has a scholarship to a real DI school doesn't do anything for me in a vacuum. The same can be said for guys like Gabe Speier, Willie Ethington, Matt Spalding, Nick Moore, Jason Thompson, Carson Blair, Ryan Pressley, and a whole slew of other guys (admittedly some of those guys got between $100 and $275K, but they were also more highly regarded by the consensus). Not saying it's a bad signing at all, I frankly don't know enough about the player to make that judgment. Just saying that was the reasoning behind the projection. |
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871 
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2014 14:07:06 GMT -5
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