2014 MLB Post-Draft Discussion Thread

Maybe. But it's also likely that they were near-100% confident that they could sign him. That's the key in the first 10 rounds - get someone who you are sure of signing, whether they are overslot or bargain deals, so that you don't lose the pool money.

EDIT: And like I said before, if another team was in on him it makes the fact they drafted him in the fifth rather than the fourth a bit of a head-scratcher.

Thanks to the staff and posters who make draft time so interesting and easy to follow for someone as uneducated as myself.

I was wondering if someone might be able to rank the draftees, as if they were a farm system in themselves? Obviously you get a pretty good idea of the higher upside guys based on these threads and a players bonus demands, but I just thought it would be interesting to see.

Ben Moore full slot....

They better know what kind of math they are doing.

So far, with one exception, where I and my dumb spreadsheet said that Mike was too low, I was right (Mars, Moore), and where I thought he was high, he was right (Kemp). That's not good!

The exception was Kopech; I was right about him being under slot rather than over, but we have conflicting reports about $1.4 versus $1.6M. (My final guess, which I admit I never posted, was $1.525.) At this point, we can really use the former in order to have room for just the possibility of grabbing Rolen or Alvarado, and I'll have to crunch some numbers to see where Rice stands. And of course it will really help if I was right about Mike being too high on Whitson and Beeks.

Christ. Well, that's why I only post couple hundred times every few years. Shows me I should spend more time reading before I post. Thanks.

So basically any addtional monies will be from the 4th rounder and the 10th rounder plus the usual 5%.

I think the chance of a surprising HSer signing is going down. They wont have that $600k to throw at a Mookie Betts late this year. All it would take is Chavis or Cosart changing his demands to really put a cramp on their budget.

At one point I thought going massively over every few years would be ok, but the penalties are really too severe. Im a little surprised there are so many non-'premiere' signings this early for slot or above, without any real savings. Always can assume the FO knows more than I do though, and must feel good about Chavis/Cosart demands.

Ah, I had seen that and forgotten all about it. I apologize. I've got a week old baby over here, so I'm a little sleep-deprived these days. I'll go back and check that out ... thank you and thank you to Eric for doing it. 

Exclusive by me..... Michael Kopech and Kevin McAvoy were at the Red Sox game.

Doesn't look like we have saved much anywhere? Are we gonna blow by the 5%?

Trying to get a handle on the cap ...

We're 167,200 over on Ockimey and 150,000 over on Kemp.

We are either 78,000 or 278,000 under on Kopech, depending on reports.

Mars and Moore have signed at slot.

My guesses for remaining slot picks, with Mike's when we disagree:

Chavis, 54,500 over (Mike 29,500 over)
Travis, slot (Mike 3200 over)
Cosart, slot (Mike 9400 under)
McAvoy, 367,600 under
Reilly, 10,000 over (Mike 36,500 over)
Steen, slot? (Mike 92,600 under; Okin is guessing about 60,000 over)
Sturgeon 127,600 under

That's either 191,500 or 391,500 under.

Whitson and Beeks have signed. I had them at 90,000 and 85,000 over, but I also (trusting Mike) had Shepherd at 50,000 over, and he ended up not going over at all. Based on that, I'm dropping Whitson to 65,000 over and Beeks to 60,000. (Mike's guesses have us giving slot 158 money to both of these guys; their average ratings were 219 and 231, which is what these new guesses are based on.)

The 5% we can go over the cap is another 318,665.

If all this is correct, and Kopech signed for $1.6M, then we have about 385,000 to play with. If Kopech signed for $1.4M, then it's 585,000.

Mike's projected costs against cap:

Fisher 200,000

Matijevic 150,000
Rice 100,000
Rolen, Alvarado, etc. 25,000 each?

If Kopech is at $1.6M, we have room for Fisher, and for either Matijevic and a wild card, or Rice and couple of them.

If Kopech signed at $1.4M, we can get the gang.

All of this will change, of course, when we find out what the actual Whitson, Beeks, Reilly, Steen, etc. numbers are. But this is a reasonable guess.