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The Rotation Going Forward
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Post by okin15 on Jun 11, 2014 11:16:45 GMT -5
I don't think you get much for Doubront right now, but he looks good in the bullpen going forward. He's been what you expected, a 5th starter (on a WS winner) and a good bridge to the guys you have coming up.
I agree with trading Workman while he's valuable. I think you get a lot more than trading Peavy, and he's basically at his ceiling right now. He's neither young, nor got ace stuff. Think Doubront in 2012.
ADD: Yes it sucks to have Peavy in the rotation all season, but he's also a pretty good 4th/5th starter. Buchholz is really the key, and needs to get back on track. If he can be a reliable 3rd type, then the Sox can make do with Jake and a combo of RDLR, Doubie, Webster and Ranaudo on the back end. In a really ideal world, one of the younger guys steps up (like RDLR so far) and Doubront goes to the 'pen.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 11, 2014 11:20:25 GMT -5
Trading Workman makes no sense to me. The most important thing a pitcher can do is pound the zone. Of all the prospects the Sox have he is the only one that has shown the guts or talent to keep pounding the zone. The others only have shown marginal control. While Workman has shown the ability to Start and Relieve in high leverage situations. I thought he was better than Peavy when they traded for him and I still do. If RDLR can put up a few more good starts like his last 2 I will buy into him. But right now he is the 3rd best starter on the team. It's unfair to suggest that the reason guys like Webster and De La Rosa don't throw strikes is because they don't have "guts." It is incredibly difficult to throw baseballs into a two-by-two box sixty feet away, especially when you're also trying to add movement or deception to those pitches. This overly macho stuff about oh, he must not have the balls to throw it in the strike zone-- baloney. I always think it's fair to criticize a player's skills or talent, but it is usually unfair to criticize their character. (The same holds true for front office staff and managers, which is why I often push back against that as well.) That is why I said Guts or Talent OR means one of the two not both of them. I for one do not know which one but it is one or the other. Workman has shown the Guts and Talent to do it and with less physical stuff. Everyone misses location numerous times during each game. Sometimes you pay for it other times you do not. If you think conviction in throwing a pitch does not make a difference and cannot cause control issues OK. But I do. Especially if the last time you made the same pitch to a guy he hit a rocket.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Jun 11, 2014 12:45:19 GMT -5
There is a pattern here - Workman, JBJ, Nava, all undeservedly getting sent to the minors to preserve the (marginal at best) depth at the expense of not having the best 25-man roster. I know that every move can be argued individually, but it is a pattern. And I'll bet that Workman and RDLR get sent down again no matter how well they're pitching, until I see Ben do something different, which at this point probably means giving up on the season. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if we have 5 veteran starters penciled into the rotation next year even though we have about 7 minor league options to take even one spot. BTW, I concede that you won our bet. Let's start with Workman since this thread is about the rotation. IIRC, Workman was slated to begin the year in the minors as a starter. That wasn't a slight on him at all; they valued him as a starter and were planning on him being the first depth option. Because of injuries he started the season in the Sox BP. When he was no longer needed there he was sent down to stretch him out as the 6th starter. That plan seems rational and has worked out nicely. There's plenty of room to disagree with the FO's handling of the Nava / JBJ / Sizemore situation but you have to admit there were reasons for Nava's demotion other than an obsession with preserving depth. Whether or not you think he deserved more time to work it out, I think it's pretty clear he was completely lost at the plate when he was sent to Pawtucket.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 11, 2014 13:07:50 GMT -5
Duquette never had enough depth when he was here. I like it more than most. It allows you to absorb injuries and poor performance, and it generally gives you roster flexibility (less so this year). It allows a team that is winning to experiment with prospects without putting too much pressure on them. It also allows management to shake up an under-achieving team. You can argue they were below avg in the first place because the best players weren't up, but it's very possible that with the prospects they would have been in the same place... look how bad our AAA SP were for the first month plus. Now there is new blood, new hope, new energy, and more on the way. And no one player has been thrown to the wolves. I agree that we can't horde depth all year -- the time is now -- but I defend the moves made at the end of ST.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 11, 2014 13:25:09 GMT -5
I pretty much agree with all of Eric's points, though I'm not sure if Mujica is the guy I'd send out - I might try to deal Breslow or Capuano rather than selling low on Mujica. I think De La Rosa is ready and has little left to learn in Triple-A, a sentiment which I've expressed frequently. I thought Workman needed 50-100 more Triple-A innings when they recalled him, but I'll happily admit to being to conservative on that front. Both deserve starting jobs right now. I'm not sure how the Peavy/Buchholz thing will work itself out, but I've run out of patience with Doubront entirely and I just don't have any interest in him ever starting another game for the Red Sox. Workman and De La Rosa are both better right now, and obviously both have more upside going forward. If one of the two loses their spot when Buchholz comes back I'd understand, but there's no reason to let Doubront keep starting other than that he was there first. The fact that Doubront profiles as a type who could play up in the bullpen makes me even more impatient with him as a starter. I feel exactly the same way about Doubront. We have so many other options that I would like to consider than, once again, give Felix ANOTHER chance! Buchholz is going to be the tough one for Ben and John. He too should be kept out of the rotation, but that will be tricky.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 11, 2014 13:43:50 GMT -5
Can we all at least agree we should at least try to swindle the Pirates out of their 2015 competitive balance draft pick for a replacement level reliever?
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Post by jmei on Jun 11, 2014 14:38:05 GMT -5
Can we all at least agree we should at least try to swindle the Pirates out of their 2015 competitive balance draft pick for a replacement level reliever? Dude, for the third time, it was the MARLINS who traded their pick. The Pirates were the ones who GOT the pick. Apparently, the driving force for the trade from the Marlins' POV is they needed to shed expenditures and didn't want to pay the slot value of the pick, so they moved it so they could sign Kevin Gregg.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 11, 2014 15:21:57 GMT -5
Being a bit hard on the Marlins there and other reasons were involved. One being that the Marlins pen is just awful, outside of Dunn and Ceschak and even Ceschak hasn't been as lock down as he was.
The Marlins are going to need more to go with them and Capps, whenever he gets back to boost the rotation. Pitching is what is going to get this team to win, not the Stanton and meGehee only offense.
No difference in moving top prospects for a retread reliever (Larry Anderson-Jeff Bagwell) so I am having a hard time understanding the condemnation going on all around.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 11, 2014 15:31:18 GMT -5
Can we all at least agree we should at least try to swindle the Pirates out of their 2015 competitive balance draft pick for a replacement level reliever? Dude, for the third time, it was the MARLINS who traded their pick. The Pirates were the ones who GOT the pick. Apparently, the driving force for the trade from the Marlins' POV is they needed to shed expenditures and didn't want to pay the slot value of the pick, so they moved it so they could sign Kevin Gregg. My bad. I keep getting the two mixed up... Been real busy with work lately here.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 11, 2014 15:40:12 GMT -5
I pretty much agree with all of Eric's points, though I'm not sure if Mujica is the guy I'd send out - I might try to deal Breslow or Capuano rather than selling low on Mujica. Absolutely. Trade Breslow to an NL club, after convincing them -- honestly! -- that facing a bunch of hitters who have never seen him will make him a late-inning stud again. Breslow has a 10.37 ERA this year against the AL East and 0.73 against everyone else. Now, admittedly, there's a lot of SSS fluke involved, but over his career he has much better stats against guys who have faced him just once or twice than guys who have faced him three times or more, a bigger split than you'd expect given the selection bias (guys with only 1 or 2 PA tend to be worse hitters)*. I eliminated guys he had owned or who had owned him and looked at everyone who had faced him more than 8 times in his career; there was no change in OBP at all, but they had slugged .303 the first 2 times facing him and .410 thereafter (in 34 PA vs. 179; not a big enough sample to count as evidence for the hypothesis in a vacuum, but I wanted to look at a small sample and confirm that the numbers went in the right direction). A lot of good relievers probably have such a familiarity split, and as they lose skill, the split can be expected to get larger, since the unfamiliarity effect remains fixed. Get a decent prospect for Breslow, hope that Mujica gets on a bit of a hot streak, and maybe deal him, too. *The numbers: BFP PA K% BB% HR/C BABIP BA OBP SA TAv 1-2 486 .228 .086 .012 .237 .187 .261 .240 .189 3+ 1263 .188 .095 .031 .286 .245 .321 .378 .248 Now, the first line includes a lot of fringe players, but there's no way the entire group should be well below replacement level (technically .230 TAv, actually more like .210 for real AAA callups) just because of that. If that group were half AAA callups, you would expect them to have about a .225 TAv.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2014 12:44:43 GMT -5
Everyone seems a little bored today so I feel like, hey, why not - but this is a serious proposal:
1. I try to extend Lester during the All Star break or before. The deal I would proffer would be in the ballpark of $105M for 5 years and $122M overall with the 6th year being a team option based an achievable innings/starts during years 4 & 5 or a $5M buyout, so he's guaranteed 5 years at $110M. I assume Lester accepts this offer BUT If he does not accept I buy James Shields in the off season, 4 years with an option for the 5th and I take the draft pick on Lester.
2. Since Andrew Friedman has said repeatedly he has no problems trading within the division, he is just looking for what he thinks is the best return I would offer him Owens and any 1 of Barnes OR Webster+ and 1 of Marrero/Ranaudo/De La Rosa/Johnson/Coyle for David Price - or offer him Workman and two of Webster/De La Rosa/Ranaudo/Johnson/Coyle/A player not named Barnes, Betts or Swihart and anyone from A ball not named Margot. A 4th player could be discussed or the deal expanded but I'd work hard to get them a good package for 1.2 years of an elite pitcher. My "untouchables" are Mookie and Swihart. I assume I make the deal.
I also look at the medicals and, if I like what I see, I offer Price a 6-year deal that is in the same ballpark as Lester's if he takes it sweet. If not I take the draft pick after next year.
2015 Rotation is
Price Lester or Shields Lackey Buchholz Workman/Whomever Didn't Get Traded.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 12, 2014 12:48:38 GMT -5
There is a lot more than one reason why Price won't be playing in Boston anytime soon.
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 13:17:53 GMT -5
Hypothetical trade proposals should go in the trade proposal subforum. Once we get into specific prospect names, it junks up the thread with "that's not enough!"/"that's too much to give up!"-type stuff.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 12, 2014 13:28:12 GMT -5
There is a lot more than one reason why Price won't be playing in Boston anytime soon. Yeah I think we would have to include Big Papi in the deal...
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2014 13:34:14 GMT -5
OK, then, but having a realistic rotation discussion for 2015 without trade proposals is decidedly not a realistic conversation as it is reduced to a variation of "If Lester signs/doesn't sign" + "If we sign free agent(s) X" + "Jeepers, I think this prospect will outperform his projection in year 1," which is all well and good but leaves out an important variable.
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 13:36:26 GMT -5
You can say "trade for X," just don't bring specific prospects into it. It invites stuff like questioning why you have Rubby De La Rosa on the same tier as Brian Johnson and Sean Coyle.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 12, 2014 13:56:08 GMT -5
I don't think there is any chance the Sox will pay the money Price would cost, especially if they won't pay the money Lester will cost, which should be a little less, and which I think they should pay.
At this point, with this season just about over with, the Sox should be trying more of the Pawtucket pitchers. I'm not optimistic about either Buchholz or Doubront being a solid starter this year, and maybe never again.
The Sox should be working on a plan for next year's rotation that incorporates as much home-grown talent as possible.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 12, 2014 14:04:04 GMT -5
You can say "trade for X," just don't bring specific prospects into it. It invites stuff like questioning why you have Rubby De La Rosa on the same tier as Brian Johnson and Sean Coyle. Because I don't believe any of the first two will be more than relievers in MLB within 3 years and Coyle is riding some serious helium right now. But OK, get it.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 12, 2014 14:59:53 GMT -5
As I start to put on my helmet to get in the tank... Peavy and Doubront should be main-stays as they'll be the co-conspirators. Trade Lackey for something and install either De La Rosa or Workman whomever they think is actually a starter long term as a trial by fire to see if they can be counted on to be in the rotation next year. Buchholz that's another matter if there is something physical wrong with him then DL, if not trot him out there maybe he can find something that makes you feel better about him for next year.
As for the line-up keep it as is, it's good enough for a tank job, just play Johnny Gomes against righties (more often) and Drew against lefties too. This is the cookie I'm throwing Farrell so he can guide the tank safely.
Anyways the next couple of weeks will tell about the immidiate future of the team.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 12, 2014 16:25:59 GMT -5
This is kind of a moot point.
Neither Buccholz or Doubront is comming back until they show signs in the minors of getting back to form.
Most pitchers need one rehab start to get back after a relatively short DL stint. Doubront is getting at least two and under the CBA they can give him up to four. If he doesn't pitch well they can take him off the rehab stint and start over.
As for Buccholz the same applies but I think we all know that with his history there is a good chance he's done for the year. Mark my words at some point during the rehab assignment Clay will ask out and go back on the DL.
One last word. DIPS theory or the idea that a pitchers ERA will regress to his FIP or XFIP, only applies to pitchers who have proven that they are good enough to start 150 innings in back to back seasons.
In DeLaRosa's case you can't make a determination if his inflated home run rate is due to ability or bad luck. Pitchers with high home run rates never pitch long enough to reach the 300 inning or so threshold.
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Post by onbase on Jun 12, 2014 17:10:53 GMT -5
I understand eric's position on Buchholz due to the upside. My concern is that part of what makes him good is what gets him hurt. Something in his mechanics?
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 18:47:26 GMT -5
One last word. DIPS theory or the idea that a pitchers ERA will regress to his FIP or XFIP, only applies to pitchers who have proven that they are good enough to start 150 innings in back to back seasons. In DeLaRosa's case you can't make a determination if his inflated home run rate is due to ability or bad luck. Pitchers with high home run rates never pitch long enough to reach the 300 inning or so threshold. Yes, there is a survivor bias built into the DIPS studies, so strictly mathematically speaking, DIPS might not apply. That said, for a top prospect with a career 0.40 HR/9 in the minor leagues and a career 0.99 HR/9 in the major leagues prior to this season, I'm pretty confident that his 2014 1.47 HR/9 is going to regress downwards as he pitches more innings. Hell, even if it doesn't, his year-to-date 3.68 FIP is more than adequate.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 13, 2014 4:18:24 GMT -5
In an off-season trade and if none of the three are traded during the season, I'd much prefer Sale or Samardja, both of whom are as equally likely to be traded as Price. That of course assumes we're not buying David a toy. I'd prefer not to deal in the division with any asset that is signed past 2014.
All three are somewhat similarly situated (one year control remaining) and should be about equal in the trade chips required to get them. It will be a buyers market since free agents Lester, Masterson, Scherzer, Shields and Beckett will also likely be out there.
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Post by soxcentral on Jun 13, 2014 7:24:51 GMT -5
I don't move either of Lester or Lackey unless we fall way out of contention, in which case I defenitely put out feelers for trades on both. I'd love to see a Lester extension but don't want to lose him for just a pick, a consistent top-end starter is worth more than that.
3-5 Candidates
Peavy Buchholz Doubront Workman De La Rosa Ranaudo Webster
I'd like to see Buch get his form back, but am doubtful. Prefer to see him moved to the pen.
Ditto for Doubront.
Peavy is a clear trade candidate too, whether we creep back in to the race or not, but I kind of like him as a back end guy.
For the other 2 spots its Ranaudo at this point who I think will become the most consistent starter of the 4, and am hopeful he gets a chance in Boston soon. Once he enters the rotation, I think he's there for a long time.
The other 3 (Workman, De La Rosa, Webster) should fill the final role and become injury depth in both the rotation and pen. Having options for all 3 is nice for times when there are no DL trips, but they all are best served by facing ML hitters at this point.
Rotation
Lester Lackey Ranaudo Workman/RDLR/Webster Peavy
Bullpen
Uehara Tazawa Miller Buchholz Doubront 2 of Breslow/Badenhop/Mujica/Capuano
Ideally most of that last group is moved to make room for younger arms.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 13, 2014 7:43:07 GMT -5
And I know y'all hate knuckleballers, but Steven Wright might be much higher on the depth chart than some of you want him to be. Like, he could be the next man up right now. 7 IP 10 K 1 BB in his start yesterday.
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