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The Rotation Going Forward
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 11, 2014 4:02:50 GMT -5
Being myself, there will be stats to follow, but since I'm waiting for Workman's numbers to be updated, I thought I'd give the conclusions first and come back later with the facts.
1) Rubby De La Rosa and Brandon Workman stay in the rotation until they clearly pitch themselves out of it.
Even if you include RDLR's MLB 2013, which is probably unfair to him, and even if you exclude the MLE of his 2014 Pawtucket stint, which is certainly unfair, his numbers are clearly among the five best in the organization. And his stuff is electric.
Workman's advantage over Doubront, Peavy, and Webster may not be as large, but at the current time, it's pretty clear.
2) When Felix Doubront comes off the DL, he takes Mujica's bullpen spot (or does, once no one else is on the DL).
The Mujica signing was a great idea that hasn't worked. He's been as far from being one of the 12 best pitchers in the organization as Keanu Reaves is from a Lifetime Achievement Oscar. Even if Mujica pitches well after we dump him, is there any chance we're going to regret that, because of injuries? Rich Hill has a 2.59 FIP and .270 BABIP at Pawtucket; Tommy Layne 2.95 / .263; and with Chris Hernandez adding a cutter and having his K rate explode, we have five starters (including Wright with a 2.28 FIP in his 2 starts) who are viable MLB relief candidates. Alex Wilson doesn't suck, but if we needed a reliever for more than mopup duty, he's almost not on the radar. With this kind of pitching depth, there's no excuse for keeping a guy like Mujica around.
3) When Clay Buchholz comes back and no one's on the DL, trade Jake Peavy.
Peavy is at best the 6th best starter in the organization, but the edge he has over Doubront and Webster is slight (if it exists at all), and if you're worried about a rash of injuries challenging our depth, there's also Ranaudo, Barnes, Wright, and Hernandez. The same argument applies here as to Mujica: it's impossible imagining missing the guy once he's dumped.
Meanwhile, because he might turn back into Clay Buchholz!!! any time, Buchholz doesn't have to do that right away; all he has to do to earn a spot in the rotation, for the time being, is be roughly as good as Doubront or Peavy, and he gets the nod over either of them because of that upside.
Lester, Lackey, a mechanically recovered Buchholz, De La Rosa and Workman -- that's a contender's rotation. And if Workman comes back to earth, you have six viable alternatives, starting with promoting Doubront from long man and spot starter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 11, 2014 5:25:43 GMT -5
In an ideal world, whatever ails Buccholz is contagious and Mujica would be able to pitch in the pen while on the DL then do a rehab. That buys 25 days.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 11, 2014 5:40:25 GMT -5
Probably a lot of people, not named either Cherrington, nor Henry that would like to see a rotation going forward that included both Workman and RDLR and didn't have either Doubrant, or Bucholz/Peavy (dealer's choice)in it. As for Mujica? better chance of seeing Doober evicted from the rotation than for Henry to pay Mujica nearly 10m to pitch for another team the next season and a half.. it ain't gonna' happen, even though it should for the well being of the team.
Good topic.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2014 7:45:28 GMT -5
Even if we eat some money on Peavy and Mujica, they should be dealt because we have BETTER in-house options. I don't have any confidence in Buchholz getting it together either. Would like to see Ranaudo get a start or two when we DL Clay later. This is Clay's 7th year. We really need to do better. Hope he has a couple of good starts and Theo Igets the hots for him. He has a plus war of 5.7 in his career. He accumulated a plus 7.2 in 2010 and 2013. Those two flashes of brilliance simply aren't enough to make up for pathetic performances in 2008, 2012 and this year. Even in his two great seasons, he couldn't finish the season. I don't mind if people blame injuries. But, honestly what can we expect from him the rest of his career in Boston??
I hope like hell we keep Rubby and Workman in until/if they come back to earth.
We're ideally set up to make a quantity for quality trade. A la David Price. That ain't happening but just using him as an example.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 11, 2014 8:05:56 GMT -5
I get the sense that the FO is not as down on Buchholz as we are. It is obvious they had to get him out of the rotation the way he was pitching, but before his injury last year he was looking like the best pitcher in the league. Aside from any mental issues he may have, it is pretty obvious his mechanics are much different than last year and that's coming from someone who really doesn't know much about pitcher mechanics. Now I don't know how hard that is to fix, but I would believe the front office is committed to letting Buchholz try to fix this.
I am not sure who would take on Bobby Jenks Mujica's contract right now. And if that is the case I am not sure it makes sense to eat his salary to trade him. He should be considered the lowest leverage reliever we have right now, if he is sticking on the roster. I think a DL stint to try to get him on track would be best decision. There is still upside in him, and if you eat his salary and trade him you lose that upside chance while still having the salary responsibility. You would only get a non prospect back in return anyways. (who here would of loved Miami's comp pick for Mujica?)
Edit: As for Doubrount, I consider myself higher on him than most other. I am not saying he will ever be an ace, but he is a guy who should be a valuable starting pitcher out of the 4 or 5 spot. He is pre arbitration so he is dirt cheap too. I wouldn't consider moving him to the bullpen outside of a playoff scenario. If we don't have a spot for him trade him, he should still be a valuable trade chip.
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Post by jmei on Jun 11, 2014 8:24:07 GMT -5
I'm a little biased since I was a huge fan of his in the offseason, but I think that they can find a way to carry Mujica as the lowest-leverage reliever for as long as possible and see if he can work himself out of it. Good relievers get out of whack all the time, and given his upside, Mujica should get more than 23 innings (the equivalent of four or five bad starts in a row) to try and work out of it. It will be another two or three weeks before the "if everyone is healthy" caveat starts becoming a possibility, and further injuries (or phantom injuries) may push that threshold back. Most teams can carry a fringy guy in the back end of their bullpen for blowouts, especially a team like the Red Sox with a good number of reliable bullpen arms ahead of him. There's also the possibility that if the Red Sox actually fall out of contention by July, they start selling some of their mid-end bullpen arms (think Badenhop, Capuano, Breslow, maybe even Miller) and make room for Mujica and whoever gets bumped from the bullpen.
I agree with everything else, though. I'm also curious about how they're going to handle the fact that even with those two promoted to Boston, the Pawtucket rotation is getting a little crowded. By mid-season, they're going to have Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and one of Wright/Hernandez/Couch. Not all those guys are going to lock down rotation spots in Boston. A trade is on the horizon, and I'm curious to see which of those names they want to keep.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 11, 2014 8:25:25 GMT -5
9:16 Comment From Michael Doubront and Buchholz are both making rehab starts and threatening to come back. What’s the plan for keeping Rubby de la Rosa in the rotation? Can we get a PTBNL for Peavy? 9:16 Paul Swydan: They could definitely get at least a PTBNL for Peavy, because at least one of the other 29 teams will be willing to bet on their ability to “fix” him, but I don’t think De La Rosa is long for the rotation if he pitches the way he did in his last start. 9:21 Comment From Michael I dunno, I was fine with RDLR’s last start… thought he threw a lot of good pitches and a couple of mistakes which just happened to be against some of the best hitters in MLB. 9:22 Paul Swydan: I don’t think the “best in the game” caveat is OK. Every night he’ll face some of the best in the game….unless they’re playing the Royals.
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Post by jmei on Jun 11, 2014 8:30:05 GMT -5
De La Rosa had a 5:2 K/BB in his last start and a 47.4% ground ball rate, good for a 3.77 xFIP. He gave up two homers, but home run rates are very flukey in small samples. I'd take a start of that caliber pretty much every time from De La Rosa going forward.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 11, 2014 8:34:09 GMT -5
I'm a believer that you go with your 5 best. In this case, pitching De La Rosa & Workman is better in the short (as discussed) and long run, since if they continue their success you have two good young established major league starters to either keep in next year's rotation or be highly valuable commodities in trade. I got a lot of grief for suggesting shopping Doubront after 2012; unfortunately he's gone backward since. I am not sure who would take on Bobby Jenks Mujica's contract right now. And if that is the case I am not sure it makes sense to eat his salary to trade him. I would. Not me, personally, but as a GM. Lots of upside there, and relievers are notoriously inconsistent. Heck, a team could trade for him, he pitches well for 3 weeks, then they flip him to a contender as a key bullpen upgrade. Maybe.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2014 8:35:41 GMT -5
My guess is that the organization will look to sell high on Workman and has already fielded calls on him. He's cost-controlled and would be a good get for a contender, especially a NL, smaller-market team. Per Cafardo, scouts from STL, CWS, TOR, MIL, MIA, PHI, SD and LAA were at last night's game (not necessarily to see Workman, but ...).
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 11, 2014 8:35:58 GMT -5
De La Rosa had a 5:2 K/BB in his last start and a 47.4% ground ball rate, good for a 3.77 xFIP. He gave up two homers, but home run rates are very flukey in small samples. I'd take a start of that caliber pretty much every time from De La Rosa going forward. You may recall that I was the first to say I was happy with the start on the Tigers series thread, but I thought I'd share a different perspective all the same. If it were up to me, Peavy and Doubront would both be on the block right now, and I'd be willing to eat Peavy's salary if it gets us a decent prospect rather than a mediocre one.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 11, 2014 8:37:55 GMT -5
I'm a little biased since I was a huge fan of his in the offseason, but I think that they can find a way to carry Mujica as the lowest-leverage reliever for as long as possible and see if he can work himself out of it. Good relievers get out of whack all the time, and given his upside, Mujica should get more than 23 innings (the equivalent of four or five bad starts in a row) to try and work out of it. It will be another two or three weeks before the "if everyone is healthy" caveat starts becoming a possibility, and further injuries (or phantom injuries) may push that threshold back. Most teams can carry a fringy guy in the back end of their bullpen for blowouts, especially a team like the Red Sox with a good number of reliable bullpen arms ahead of him. There's also the possibility that if the Red Sox actually fall out of contention by July, they start selling some of their mid-end bullpen arms (think Badenhop, Capuano, Breslow, maybe even Miller) and make room for Mujica and whoever gets bumped from the bullpen. I agree with everything else, though. I'm also curious about how they're going to handle the fact that even with those two promoted to Boston, the Pawtucket rotation is getting a little crowded. By mid-season, they're going to have Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, and one of Wright/Hernandez/Couch. Not all those guys are going to lock down rotation spots in Boston. A trade is on the horizon, and I'm curious to see which of those names they want to keep. Just a sidenote, I usually don't watch games pitched by people like Hernandez but I happened to be cruising around the dial the other night and saw a couple of batters against Hernandez. I saw a wipe out cutter and heard comments by the opposing announcer to the effect of "another great cutter" said with emphasis on the word another. His stats have been incredible lately so just take that tidbit with the large grain of salt it deserves. I'm looking forward to his next start.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 11, 2014 8:39:29 GMT -5
My guess is that the organization will look to sell high on Workman and has already fielded calls on him. He's cost-controlled and would be a good get for a contender, especially a NL, smaller-market team. Per Cafardo, scouts from STL, CWS, TOR, MIL, MIA, PHI, SD, LAA at last night's game. I wouldn't mind that. I do like Workman and have always thought it a waste when people called for him to move to the bullpen, but he is living on the edge as a starter with his velocity. Shave 2 mph off his average fastball and suddenly his starts might look like batting practice.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2014 8:39:40 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2014 8:49:40 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries. I do see a lot of Wade Davis in him. Ok short-term as a starter. Could get passed by guys like Barnes and Owens. Would be nice to have a reliable, cheap righty long man in the pen. Spot start and multiple innings. Yankees version of Ramiro Mendoza.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2014 8:53:07 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries. I do see a lot of Wade Davis in him. Ok short-term as a starter. Could get passed by guys like Barnes and Owens. Would be nice to have a reliable, cheap righty long man in the pen. Spot start and multiple innings. Yankees version of Ramiro Mendoza. Workman is a lot better than a long man. He was pushing Tazawa towards the end of last season for 8th inning setup man after he started the year in Portland. Even if he doesn't stick as a starter, his velocity plays up in the pen and he pounds the strike zone. He can at least be a Tazawa type for me.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 11, 2014 8:54:20 GMT -5
My guess is that the organization will look to sell high on Workman and has already fielded calls on him. He's cost-controlled and would be a good get for a contender, especially a NL, smaller-market team. Per Cafardo, scouts from STL, CWS, TOR, MIL, MIA, PHI, SD, LAA at last night's game. I wouldn't mind that. I do like Workman and have always thought it a waste when people called for him to move to the bullpen, but he is living on the edge as a starter with his velocity. Shave 2 mph off his average fastball and suddenly his starts might look like batting practice. Once I take my emotions out of the equation I am not opposed to trading Workman, because we have quite a few similar players. I just don't want to see him traded in a short sighted move. He should be a good trade chip, and treated as such.
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Post by jmei on Jun 11, 2014 8:57:11 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries. This is a pretty one-sided reading of recent history. This front office has absolutely been willing to move depth when they've gotten sufficient value in return. Think about the trades of Iglesias, Youkilis, Bowden, Reddick, Lowrie, Weiland, etc. They've also been happy to trade/DFA spare parts that are blocking more talented players-- think Clayton Mortenson (traded for Quintin Berry), Pedro Ciriaco (moved to the Royals for a PTBNL), DFA of guys like Daniel Bard, Jose De La Torre, Brandon Snyder, etc. Just because Cherington hasn't moved guys like Mike Carp or whichever pitcher you think needs to hit the road yet doesn't mean he's unwilling to move anyone, it means he hasn't gotten offers that are good enough yet. The fact that Sizemore and Lavarnway and Wright and whoever else you think is an affront to the 40-man roster is still in the organization just means that noone has seriously challenged for their roster spots yet.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2014 9:02:33 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries. I think this is a fair statement for the first third of the season, then it is not fair. Ben definitely subscribes to the old adage about finding out what you have in the first third of a season, getting your ducks in a row in the next third in order to be ready to push toward a playoff spot in the last third. BTW, as long as Holt is hot, he's not going anywhere; they'd send Nava back to AAA before they optioned a red-hot Holt.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2014 9:03:39 GMT -5
Jayson Stark ?@jaysonst 1m W/ Liriano about to join Cole on disabled list & back of rotation already struggling, other clubs expect #Pirates to try to deal for starter
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 11, 2014 9:11:41 GMT -5
Jayson Stark ?@jaysonst 1m W/ Liriano about to join Cole on disabled list & back of rotation already struggling, other clubs expect #Pirates to try to deal for starter I'd give them RDLR for Polanco straight-up.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2014 9:14:55 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries. This is a pretty one-sided reading of recent history. This front office has absolutely been willing to move depth when they've gotten sufficient value in return. Think about the trades of Iglesias, Youkilis, Bowden, Reddick, Lowrie, Weiland, etc. They've also been happy to trade/DFA spare parts that are blocking more talented players-- think Clayton Mortenson (traded for Quintin Berry), Pedro Ciriaco (moved to the Royals for a PTBNL), DFA of guys like Daniel Bard, Jose De La Torre, Brandon Snyder, etc. Just because Cherington hasn't moved guys like Mike Carp or whichever pitcher you think needs to hit the road yet doesn't mean he's unwilling to move anyone, it means he hasn't gotten offers that are good enough yet. The fact that Sizemore and Lavarnway and Wright and whoever else you think is an affront to the 40-man roster is still in the organization just means that noone has seriously challenged for their roster spots yet. I'm strictly talking about the post-2012 Cherington when the org philosophy completely changed.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2014 9:17:38 GMT -5
I've said it too many times before, but I'm still skeptical that any depth at all is going to be moved until it happens. I'm waiting on Holt to get sent down so we can keep Carp and Sizemore around. All we ever do is add players to keep everyone with options in the minors until there are injuries. I think this is a fair statement for the first third of the season, then it is not fair. Ben definitely subscribes to the old adage about finding out what you have in the first third of a season, getting your ducks in a row in the next third in order to be ready to push toward a playoff spot in the last third. BTW, as long as Holt is hot, he's not going anywhere; they'd send Nava back to AAA before they optioned a red-hot Holt. Right, they'll be stupid about Nava to keep a worthless player in Sizemore. But then when everyone is back - Victorino, Carp, WMB, Holt, someone from the 25-man has to be DFA'd or traded to make room for Holt, because we added Drew. This team cannot fit Nava or a utility IF when everyone is healthy without finally getting rid of Carp and Sizemore.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 11, 2014 9:19:47 GMT -5
I pretty much agree with all of Eric's points, though I'm not sure if Mujica is the guy I'd send out - I might try to deal Breslow or Capuano rather than selling low on Mujica. I think De La Rosa is ready and has little left to learn in Triple-A, a sentiment which I've expressed frequently. I thought Workman needed 50-100 more Triple-A innings when they recalled him, but I'll happily admit to being to conservative on that front. Both deserve starting jobs right now.
I'm not sure how the Peavy/Buchholz thing will work itself out, but I've run out of patience with Doubront entirely and I just don't have any interest in him ever starting another game for the Red Sox. Workman and De La Rosa are both better right now, and obviously both have more upside going forward. If one of the two loses their spot when Buchholz comes back I'd understand, but there's no reason to let Doubront keep starting other than that he was there first. The fact that Doubront profiles as a type who could play up in the bullpen makes me even more impatient with him as a starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 11, 2014 9:20:53 GMT -5
I also kind of expect there to be some panic trade for an OF that enables us to put JBJ in AAA and still keep all the crap OFers we have.
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