The Rotation Going Forward

I'm skeptical of any prospect's numbers in Albuquerque. It's more of a time to extend Lester than trade him. This team without Lester and Lackey would be scary bad next year.

If Cherington did that, he'd discover that he needs a starter the caliber of Jon Lester to top the rotation.

That 2015 rotation you have listed is pretty scary. We don't know if Lackey is really coming back in 2015. I'd suspect the Sox and Lackey renegotiate some sort of extension. We don't know if Buchholz will be healthy or effective.

Workman looks great so far. He looked very home run prone in Pawtucket. My guess is with regular exposure he's probably either a solid reliever or a bottom of the rotation starter. De La Rosa and Webster are kids who deserve looks but I'd much rather it be at the expense of a Buchholz or a Doubront, who you don't have listed, and not Lester.

The Sox need to sign Lester, not at all costs obviously, but if they went into 2015 with the rotation you mentioned I'd be kind of worried.

If there is any market for Peavy - even if the Sox have to eat a chunk of his salary - he's the guy to move.

Biggest thing I've taken from Rubby's few starts in Boston this year is how good he truly could be if he is able to harness everything and tighten up his command.

Yea, the chances of him ever getting to that point on a consistent basis are slim, no doubt. But there are very few guys who have at least shown glimpses of success at the MLB level that have that potential

I would imagine the Sox still think he has things to improve on at AAA, though they would be hard pressed not to go with the higher upside guy vs. Doubront at this point in time

I'd go with Rubby in the rotation and Felix to the pen, though I have little confidence that will be the end result. Either way, The Rubby/Barnes/Webster trio has brightened over the last month

If the looks like Sox aren't going to make a run for the playoffs then service time and super-two considerations will likely determine a lot of who sees how much time in the second half. Particularly true of Workman who is likely in super-two range if he spends the rest of the year here. Additionally, if they send someone down for those reasons, they will be down for more than 30 days.

It's business and if we aren't making the playoffs then business can increase the value of certain pitchers going forward. The three pitchers who could be effected by those decisions are Workman, RDLR & Webster.

In the general case, super-two is usually only considered when there is a likelyhood that the player might be a star. The reason for that is that super-two happens far after the service time date and therefore teams are forced to decide between having a potential star on their roster now vs several million dollars and the bigger the star, the more millions. However, if there's pretty much no chance of making the playoffs, the value of having them on a current team is significantly lessened since making the playoffs should be goal number one.

Realistically, they can justify it right now. Felix is almost due back, he has no options and only Workman and RDLR have options.

I'm referring to if we are out of it. If we are involved in a race then we're more likely to keep those that can help us win, the other stuff becomes secondary.

Just based on eyeball looks without actually counting days, and assuming Cot's is correct with service time for the start of the year, it appears that:

If he stays up the rest of the year, Workman will likely end the year with a little over one year service time. If we send him down for about 30 days and if he goes on to being a full time MLB player after this year, he will likely qualify for super-two but effectively delayed by one year. In effect, either option will cost the Sox about the same in dollars but sending him down gives us an additional year of his services.

RDLR is unlikely to be a decision because almost no matter what we realistically do, RDLR will not have a year service time but will be a super two.

Webster is about 30 days from neither being able to accumulate a year or qualify for super two. If we call him up in that time, hypothetically he could be a super two.

If we trade anybody, they are worth more to the receiving team if they have less service time and are unlikely to qualify as super two.

I don't get all the dissing of Breslow. He's not a closer and not a setup guy either, what he has been for nearly his entire career is a solid RP that is steady with his numbers, as solid as most anyone as a middle reliever that there is and Boston has a 4m option for next season that going by today's standards isn't a bad deal at all.

yeah.. His BB/9 and K/9 numbers are both headed somewhat in the wrong direction, even last year when he was really effective, but getting rid of someone, just because he started out the season late, missing all of ST and has gotten off to a slow start might be short sighted with someone of his caliber.

I think the bolded points outline the issue. Once a mid-reliever heads in the wrong direction, his options are: long man (doesn't seem to be viable for Breslow), minor leaguer or retire. It may be 1-2 years before Breslow hits that point, but as Parcells used to say: It's better to get rid of them a year early than a year late.

Another way to look at it: In the 6th inning of a tie game, who would you rather have in there - Breslow, De La Rosa, Workman or Doubront? Breslow would be #4 on my list.

He is indeed down 2 mph from last year, when he was 90 in April and 92 in June -- this year he was 88 in April and is now up to 90.
But his reduced effectiveness -- from excellent to so-so -- is also, in part, caused by facing too many hitters who have seen him already. He's spent his career feasting on guys who have seen him 0 or 1 times, so a change of scenery would help. (This may well be the reason the A's were willing to trade him to us in the first place; he seems to have a shelf life of just a few years in a given division.)

If you don't want to send down RDLR or Workman, then two people need to be moved once everyone is healthy. Of the relief crew, Breslow has the least impressive rest-of-reason projections and is someone who NL teams might well take a flyer on.

One issue with Workman's suspension-- they don't get an extra roster spot while he's suspended, so to add Doubront to the 25-man roster, they'd need to option someone down (or DL someone). The most likely options are to option Herrera and play with three bench players for a little bit or to option RDLR and have Workman take over Rubby's spot in the rotation when he returns. It could also force their hand in terms of DFAing one of the bullpen arms, but it might still be too early in the season for that.

Obviously that was the only big trade, you're talking about trading "depth" guys. It's not like they're going to bring back much return, that's why they're bench players. Personally, I thought before the season that having sizemore and victorino around would let them ease bradley in, along with carp gomes and nava around to play the corners when necessary. Given the way sizemore played in spring training, it wasn't unreasonable. Carp and sizemore have given us nothing, nava wasn't hitting half his weight in april, and victorino has played like 8 games all year, so the outfield has been terrible so far, but only victorino's injuries were easily foreseeable, and even then, the sox appeared to have the depth to deal with that. Also, what are you talking about with sizemore forcing JBJ to the minors? Pretty sure he's spent all year on the major league team