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The Rotation Going Forward
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 17, 2014 9:36:54 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of any prospect's numbers in Albuquerque. It's more of a time to extend Lester than trade him. This team without Lester and Lackey would be scary bad next year. This year's team with Lester and Lackey is scary bad! Maybe if Cherrington shakes things up, and gives some Pawtucket starters some games this year, he will have a better handle on what we need next year. A 2015 rotation of Lackey Buchholz (if healthy) Workman De La Rosa Webster can win some games for us if the offense improves. Yea I guess that rotation would be good with our offense from last season maybe. But as it is, we're much better off extending lester. I don't think this years team is done yet, and I definitely don't think the answer to our problems is dealing our best pitcher for an outfield prospect, no matter how good he is. If we were to deal lester, I'd want more than just pederson, or some comparable prospect, and ideally i'd want someone established. We're 32-38 in what looks like a pretty weak division, especially if the jays don't add some pitching. We're not even at the halfway point; I think people should pump the breaks on the tanking/trade lester talk, and I think it's pretty clear that dealing lester, unless its for something a little more than a single highly rated prospect makes us worse this year and next year at least, if not for longer. Lester should have about 3 prime seasons left in him, and I'd like him to pitch them for us
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2014 10:00:17 GMT -5
Stats.
I've taken the last three years, and weighted them 3-2-1 and by BFP. I've included the 2011 post-season.
I haven't adjusted for relief innings, since both Workman and RDLR have pitched better as a starter.
Name ERA- Lackey 81 Workman 86 De La Rosa 86 Lester 89 Peavy 101 Buchholz 104 Doubront 109
Name FIP- Workman 83 Lackey 83 Lester 84 Buchholz 98 Peavy 99 Doubront 102 De La Rosa 103
Name xFIP- Lackey 86 De La Rosa 91 Lester 91 Workman 93 Peavy 104 Buchholz 105 Doubront 106
Name SIERA De La Rosa 3.36 Lackey 3.39 Workman 3.64 Lester 3.64 Peavy 4.00 Buchholz 4.20 Doubront 4.28 It's pretty damn clear that you have to give both RDLR and Workman the rotation spot over Doubront.
And here's why Peavy is eliminated even though he has a slight edge over Buchholz:
Name Year ERA- Buchholz 2011 53 De La Rosa 2012 69 Workman 2012 70 Lackey 2012 79 Peavy 2010 80 Lester 2012 81 Lackey 2011 83 Lester 2011 83 Workman 2011 100 Doubront 2011 101 Buchholz 2010 107 Peavy 2011 107 Peavy 2012 110 Lester 2010 113 Doubront 2010 114 Doubront 2012 123 Buchholz 2012 169 Peavy's only as high as he is because of 2010 (you can also kiss Frank Montas goodbye because of that). Given that Buchholz, last year, had an ERA- less than half of Peavy, and that Peavy has continued to decline in every metric:
ERA- 80, 107, 110 FIP- 87, 93, 116 xFIP- 97, 102, 112 SIERA 3.71, 3.89, 4.36
Peavy is obviously the one to go. If you could get a prospect as good as Montas for him (let alone Iglesias and Rondon), you'd be delighted.
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Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2014 10:27:49 GMT -5
Here are what the other major projection systems think (all ranked by FIP):
Steamer RoS: Lester 3.66 Lackey: 3.73 Workman: 4.08 De La Rosa: 4.18 Buchholz: 4.20 Doubront: 4.28 Peavy: 4.33
ZiPS RoS: Lester: 3.29 Lackey: 3.73 Peavy: 3.93 Buchholz: 4.03 Workman: 4.25 Doubront: 4.26 De La Rosa: 5.19
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 10:38:02 GMT -5
Here are what the other major projection systems think (all ranked by FIP): Shouldn't you be using the projected ERA rather than the projected FIP? Insofar as they are different, they should be predicting a BABIP skill rather than randomness.
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Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2014 12:29:29 GMT -5
Here are what the other major projection systems think (all ranked by FIP): Shouldn't you be using the projected ERA rather than the projected FIP? Insofar as they are different, they should be predicting a BABIP skill rather than randomness. Is that true, though? I mean, ZiPS and Steamer also project win-loss records, but those are pretty random as opposed to reflecting some true-talent skill for earning wins and losses. I guess I'm enough of a DIPS zealot that I'd still to prefer to look at FIP, especially since we're projecting forward. It's not like using ERA changes much-- just a few tenths of a run on the margins.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 17, 2014 12:42:00 GMT -5
I pretty much called the OF situation this year in the offseason. We didn't address it because Ben wouldn't part with Carp. And Sizemore pushing first JBJ and second Nava to the minors instead of reshaping the OF completely is basically the major reason why we are where we are. We should not have relied on JBJ 100% without a real backup plan. We should not have relied on Victorino to remain healthy without a real backup plan. And here we are. The plan was Sizemore, Nava, Gomes and Carp, while giving up on the best of the 4 earliest. Obviously that was the only big trade, you're talking about trading "depth" guys. It's not like they're going to bring back much return, that's why they're bench players. Personally, I thought before the season that having sizemore and victorino around would let them ease bradley in, along with carp gomes and nava around to play the corners when necessary. Given the way sizemore played in spring training, it wasn't unreasonable. Carp and sizemore have given us nothing, nava wasn't hitting half his weight in april, and victorino has played like 8 games all year, so the outfield has been terrible so far, but only victorino's injuries were easily foreseeable, and even then, the sox appeared to have the depth to deal with that. Also, what are you talking about with sizemore forcing JBJ to the minors? Pretty sure he's spent all year on the major league team I never cared what any of them got in a trade. They should have made a move for a much better than average RH 4th outfielder who could play any position, whether through trade or free agency. I didn't really want Sizemore and I was all for getting rid of Carp once Napoli was signed. I predicted Victorino's injuries, but he's been hurt even more than I thought. Day 1 of the season, JBJ got sent down so they could keep Sizemore up. Victorino got put on DL so JBJ was called back up. Then they "fixed" that by optioning Nava to AAA which was only done because he had an option, not because he was worse than Carp or Sizemore (he's better than both).
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 13:33:44 GMT -5
Shouldn't you be using the projected ERA rather than the projected FIP? Insofar as they are different, they should be predicting a BABIP skill rather than randomness. Is that true, though? I mean, ZiPS and Steamer also project win-loss records, but those are pretty random as opposed to reflecting some true-talent skill for earning wins and losses. I guess I'm enough of a DIPS zealot that I'd still to prefer to look at FIP, especially since we're projecting forward. It's not like using ERA changes much-- just a few tenths of a run on the margins. Well if you look at the W-L projections you'll see a very strong correlation with projected ERA. For instance ZiPS preseason: Jon Lester 3.73 ERA, 14-8 (.636 winning percentage) Jake Peavy 3.74 ERA, 10-6 (.625 winning percentage) Allen Webster 4.55 ERA, 8-7 (.533 winning percentage) Brandon Workman 4.50 ERA, 9-8 (.529 winning percentage) Anthony Ranaudo 4.59 ERA, 7-6 (.538 winning percentage) Projection systems are trying to hit the average expected performance. They don't then go and say "let's randomly pick some pitchers to have their ERA outperform or underperform their FIP and then pick some to have their W-L outperform or underperform their ERA". If you look at those ZiPS preseason projections, all the Sox starters are projected to have a slightly higher ERA than FIP. All except one, that is: Clay Buchholz. Eric Van is convinced that Buchholz has a skill for keeping his BABIP low, and so is ZiPS.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 17, 2014 13:37:23 GMT -5
You did get the OF situation right so far, but I still argue the upside was worth the risk (given the existing roster, not this mythical RH bat who can play multiple positions.) I now agree with you JimEd that they should get rid of Sizemore and maybe Carp so that they can play Bradley, Holt and perhaps Betts instead.
As for the pitchers I wonder if the biggest issue (for the FO) with demoting Doubront to the 'pen is that he may have to start next year, at least to open the season. If you can keep Lester and Lackey, then you don't really need Doubront to start (RDLR, Webster, Workman and Wright should be able to fill out the 4-7 slots). But if you lose one, or worse, both, then you really need Doubront along with Buchholz as the veteran guys, so that you have enough depth to deal with ST injuries, and not rush Ranaudo, Barnes and Owens. I hope the FO isn't a) thinking that far ahead and b) that worried about babying Doubront. He should still be able to start next year, even if he pitches out of the 'pen the rest of this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 17, 2014 23:43:47 GMT -5
In a year where it's still undecided if we have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs, not all trades have to have a significant impact on the current year. An example, which would involve a third team is Lester and PawSox prospect depth for Samardja. For Lester and the Shark, they project to be somewhat comparable for 2014 but the advantage of the trade to the Sox is that Samardja has an additional year of control. The prospects received for Lester and the PawSox depth would go to the Cubs. Lester would go to a team with a strong playoff shot.
As of yet, neither the Cubs nor the Red Sox have yet to come to agreement with their pitcher and both are likely to make an attempt before the trade deadline. The Cubs will be looking for pitching. The same could be said of Sale except that the White Sox would likely be looking for position players and Price but he's in our division.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 18, 2014 11:00:15 GMT -5
In a year where it's still undecided if we have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs, not all trades have to have a significant impact on the current year. An example, which would involve a third team is Lester and PawSox prospect depth for Samardja. For Lester and the Shark, they project to be somewhat comparable for 2014 but the advantage of the trade to the Sox is that Samardja has an additional year of control. The prospects received for Lester and the PawSox depth would go to the Cubs. Lester would go to a team with a strong playoff shot. As of yet, neither the Cubs nor the Red Sox have yet to come to agreement with their pitcher and both are likely to make an attempt before the trade deadline. The Cubs will be looking for pitching. The same could be said of Sale except that the White Sox would likely be looking for position players and Price but he's in our division. Given their respective track records, I think I'd rather have lester. Especially cause he has a track record of showing up in big games, and as you say, it's undecided whether or not we can compete this year. I'd be interested in what looking into Sale though, even though the cost might be a little prohibitive
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 19, 2014 18:07:54 GMT -5
Clay B. will get his spot back until the next DL visit. The question is does Workman or Rubby take Felix's spot?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 19, 2014 18:51:14 GMT -5
In a year where it's still undecided if we have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs, not all trades have to have a significant impact on the current year. An example, which would involve a third team is Lester and PawSox prospect depth for Samardja. For Lester and the Shark, they project to be somewhat comparable for 2014 but the advantage of the trade to the Sox is that Samardja has an additional year of control. The prospects received for Lester and the PawSox depth would go to the Cubs. Lester would go to a team with a strong playoff shot. As of yet, neither the Cubs nor the Red Sox have yet to come to agreement with their pitcher and both are likely to make an attempt before the trade deadline. The Cubs will be looking for pitching. The same could be said of Sale except that the White Sox would likely be looking for position players and Price but he's in our division. I see this as a move that would be typical Epstein and one that could get him into very hot water with Cubbie fans around the country. Sending the Shark to Boston for, say Lester and Ranaudo, maybe another smaller piece even.. a catcher in Lavarnway, maybe even Butler as the throw in type and we know how Epstein feels towards ex Red Sox players.. He'd sign Lester. I imagine he could still get him in the 5/100-110m range and Boston would get The Shark for another year and a WHOLE lot of less miles on his arm. It would be a win-win for Boston all the way around.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 19, 2014 19:03:28 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 44s Clay Buchholz will make his next start for #RedSox. No decision yet on move to open rotation spot
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2014 1:51:18 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 44s Clay Buchholz will make his next start for #RedSox. No decision yet on move to open rotation spot The logical thing is for Clay to take not only Peavy's next start, but his roster spot.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 20, 2014 8:32:27 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 44s Clay Buchholz will make his next start for #RedSox. No decision yet on move to open rotation spot The logical thing is for Clay to take not only Peavy's next start, but his roster spot. A Peavy departure makes sense both for this year and the future. He's gone after the season anyway, we have better current replacements, and we could get something back for him. And we want RDLR/Workman/+ to continue to prove themselves for next year.
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Post by jmei on Jun 20, 2014 9:11:30 GMT -5
I'm not convinced the Red Sox can get anything for Peavy unless they eat a large chunk of his salary, and even then, I'm not sure they get a prospect who cracks the SP top 20 or so. Steamer projects him to be a below-average 4.33 FIP guy going forward, and he's been one of the worst pitchers in the league by fielding-independent metrics this year. Expensive expiring below-league-average pitchers with a lengthy injury history and a poor season-to-date aren't exactly easy to move. That's not to say that the front office shouldn't try to move him, but it does mean that we should temper our expectations with regards to both the likelihood that Cherington can find someone to take him and the trade return that he might fetch.
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Post by jmei on Jun 20, 2014 9:15:42 GMT -5
In the short-term, my guess is that they option Workman and De La Rosa until they figure something out with Peavy and Doubront. There's a chance they DFA Capuano and move Doubront or Workman to the bullpen, but that's about as extreme a move as I expect before trade season starts in earnest in early- to mid-July.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 20, 2014 9:20:06 GMT -5
You are probably right. But it sucks both Workman and De La Rosa should be in the rotation from here on out. Not only for this year but next.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2014 9:41:12 GMT -5
I expect Peavy and Doubront to the bullpen. Capuano and Breslow moved/DFA'd.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2014 15:43:20 GMT -5
In the short-term, my guess is that they option Workman and De La Rosa until they figure something out with Peavy and Doubront. There's a chance they DFA Capuano and move Doubront or Workman to the bullpen, but that's about as extreme a move as I expect before trade season starts in earnest in early- to mid-July. In response to this and your previous post -- if this happens, I have half a mind to share Ben's e-mail address so that we can each send him this link a few hundred times. Simply releasing Peavy so that Buchholz could take his next start is obviously a better move than optioning a better pitcher, when in fact there are multiple better options in the organization. Continuing to send your seventh or eighth best starter out there every fifth day is simply not defensible. (Of course, trading for the guy wasn't defensible in the first place, so I'm girding myself for another equally as bad decision.)
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2014 15:56:33 GMT -5
In the short-term, my guess is that they option Workman and De La Rosa until they figure something out with Peavy and Doubront. There's a chance they DFA Capuano and move Doubront or Workman to the bullpen, but that's about as extreme a move as I expect before trade season starts in earnest in early- to mid-July. In response to this and your previous post -- if this happens, I have half a mind to share Ben's e-mail address so that we can each send him this link a few hundred times. Simply releasing Peavy so that Buchholz could take his next start is obviously a better move than optioning a better pitcher, when in fact there are multiple better options in the organization. Continuing to send your seventh or eighth best starter out there every fifth day is simply not defensible. (Of course, trading for the guy wasn't defensible in the first place, so I'm girding myself for another equally as bad decision.) I don't think you're factoring in Peavy's energy, toughness or being a gamer, Eric. All these things are very important to fielding a winning team regardless of what those stat things say. At least, Mr. Farrell thinks so.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2014 15:59:08 GMT -5
I swear, Peavy should be aiming at LHH' knees and then the ball will wind up on the outside corner instead of 2 feet outside.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2014 16:00:25 GMT -5
In the short-term, my guess is that they option Workman and De La Rosa until they figure something out with Peavy and Doubront. You know what my response is to that.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jun 20, 2014 22:06:14 GMT -5
Lester, Lackey, and Peavy (for better or worse), are the clear 1,2,3 of the rotation. After that you have a group of Buch, Doubront, RDLR, Workman, Ranaudo, Webster, and Barnes. You got Johnson and Owens creeping up quickly right behind. I think this summer at least two of these guys gotta go so that the others can keep moving forward. Thoughts?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 20, 2014 22:09:43 GMT -5
Lester, Lackey, and Peavy (for better or worse), are the clear 1,2,3 of the rotation. After that you have a group of Buch, Doubront, RDLR, Workman, Ranaudo, Webster, and Barnes. You got Johnson and Owens creeping up quickly right behind. I think this summer at least two of these guys gotta go so that the others can keep moving forward. Thoughts? Peavy is clearly the guy who is about the 7th best starter right now.
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