SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
The Rotation Going Forward
|
Post by ctfisher on Jun 24, 2014 19:31:17 GMT -5
If you really think we're out of it this year, even if you're optimistic about next year, I would see if you can get someone for Koji. He's pushing 40, and probably is a little more replaceable cause people have stopped overpaying closers so frequently, and there's not much point in having an elite closer on a bad team. there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help, so shop him at least and see what's on offer
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2014 20:41:15 GMT -5
Read the post above yours. He makes a lot of sense. We're not going to be cellar-dwellars for 3-5 years. Keep Lester, Lackey and Koji. Build a staff around them. Right now, Lackey is 35 years, 8 months old. Aside from his already expressed sentiment that he might want to retire after this season, just how much is left in that tank that you want to build a staff around him? I'm fine with keeping Lackey but you have to realize that doing so entails not one but two opportunity costs - whatever we would have netted in trading him AND whatever innings experience that would have been gained by starting a younger pitcher in his place. I feel that I am thinking forward to 2015 when I say it's probably best to trade Lackey now. But if the prevailing position is take Lackey down with the sinking ship, then so be it. It'll be interesting to see how the next month plays out and whether peoples' opinions change the closer we get to the trade deadline. Lackey might not be young, but since he's returned from surgery, he's been one of the best starting pitchers in the league (and he's been even better if you just look at 2014). He's been healthy, and his velocity has actually increased as he's gotten further removed from surgery. ZiPS RoS projects him to put up a 3.87 ERA/3.71 FIP going forward, while Steamer RoS has him at 3.84 ERA/3.69 FIP (and neither of those projection systems take into account that Lackey's terrible 2011 was caused by pitching hurt all season). There's basically no reason to think that Lackey is going to be anything but an above-average starting pitcher next year, with the potential to be one of the better starting pitchers in the league if recent results hold up. Considering how bad the position player side has looked this year, the Red Sox could use all the starting pitching they can get if they're to compete for a title in 2015.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 24, 2014 21:48:45 GMT -5
This might be helpful. There are 151 SP who have made 8 or more starts, or almost exactly 5 per team. Here are the rankings of the Sox starters in the various metrics, plus where RDLR and Worman would rank if they qualified.
The metrics are given from most result-based to most theoretical. Note that xFIP- and SIERA are trying to do the same thing (only SIERA tries to do it smarter), so they should really share a spot in your mind; this is four different lenses, not five, with the last lens coming in two competing versions, which in fact have a .975 correlation (after adjusting SIERA for league; see below). The average and standard deviation of ranking reflect that.
WP/G is WPA / pLI per GS.
Why FanGraphs doesn't have a SIERA- is a mystery. SIERA is inherently park-adjusted, but it is not adjusted for league, and all the AL starters are penalized by 5%. SIE- adjusts for that.
Name WP/G ERA- FIP- XFIP- SIE- Ave SD Jon Lester 41 30 14 19 18 26 10 John Lackey 31 44 20 20 25 30 9 Jake Peavy 101 97 120 110 117 108 10 Felix Doubront 118 128 139 148 145 133 11 Clay Buchholz 148 150 130 138 132 142 8 Rub. de la Rosa 8 10 27 12 16 15 7 Brandon Workman 50 33 60 108 115 64 30 Note that Rubby has the least noise in his performance, his high FIP- notwithstanding. The only sketchy guy is Workman, who has had an almost certainly unsustainably low HR/FB. But whether he is actually a better pitcher than his SIERA and xFIP (which are essentially that of a somewhat better-than-average 5th starter) is an open question.
I've always regarded the best 15 pitchers in baseball as #1's (only winning clubs have an ace), the next 30 as #2's, and so on, so that the last 15 guys are sub-#5 (losing clubs lack 5 quality starters). By that method, Lackey has been an average #2, Lester a bit better, although they have both been unlucky and gotten below-average #2 results. Peavy is a first-rate #5, Doubront has been just acceptable as same. Rubby has been pitching like a borderline ace.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jun 24, 2014 22:09:08 GMT -5
The sooner they officially get Peavy/Doubront out of the rotation the better, because until then, there's very little chance the Sox or any of us know what they have in terms of 2015.
Peavy continues to trot out pretty mediocre stuff, and Doubront continues to be a mediocre starter
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2014 22:12:49 GMT -5
Peavy making the decision a little less difficult.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2014 22:21:03 GMT -5
If you really think we're out of it this year, even if you're optimistic about next year, I would see if you can get someone for Koji. He's pushing 40, and probably is a little more replaceable cause people have stopped overpaying closers so frequently, and there's not much point in having an elite closer on a bad team. there are plenty of teams that need bullpen help, so shop him at least and see what's on offer Koji's not that replaceable. Sunday was the first time he's blown a game in quite a long time. He has dominated hitters over the past few years. He isn't easily replacable. Not all closers are created equal. Dave Robertson replaced Mariano this year for the Yanks but he's not Mariano. Not even close. Koji replaced Hanrahan and then Bailey. Think about how adventurous the 9th innings were. Very rarely is there drama when Koji pitches. I get that he turns 40 soon, but that doesn't mean he's suddenly going to pitch terribly. Rivera was still going strong at 43 when he retired. I think Koji can be a strong reliever for another couple of years. He's not relying on fast fastballs to get hitters out. It's all location with him. If the Red Sox want to have a good shot at winning in 2015, then Koji is the guy you want to close and you want the rotation to be headed by Lester and Lackey. Just because the Sox stink in 2014 doesn't mean that they don't have the pieces in place to be very good in 2015. They need to change the supporting cast and get a strong bat or two.
|
|
|
Post by pedey on Jun 24, 2014 22:30:00 GMT -5
I'd sooner kick Peavy out of the rotation than RDLR. Peavy has won one game this year. One. He seems to get the team in a hole every time he pitches. I'd trade him to any team that would take him, even if it meant taking most of his salary. RDLR has been good so far. Although there will be bumps in the road, I can see him as a very effective starter. How I see the rotation: 1) Lester 2) Lackey 3) Buchholz 4) Workman 5) De La Rosa
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 24, 2014 22:35:14 GMT -5
I'd sooner kick Peavy out of the rotation than RDLR. Peavy has won one game this year. One. He seems to get the team in a hole every time he pitches. I'd trade him to any team that would take him, even if it meant taking most of his salary. RDLR has been good so far. Although there will be bumps in the road, I can see him as a very effective starter. How I see the rotation: 1) Lester 2) Lackey 3) Buchholz 4) Workman 5) De La Rosa Nothing really groundbreaking here as that's about what everyone thinks right now. But will Ben do it? Will he have the guts? I don't think so. He's still worried about depth.
|
|
|
Post by pedey on Jun 24, 2014 23:15:09 GMT -5
I'd sooner kick Peavy out of the rotation than RDLR. Peavy has won one game this year. One. He seems to get the team in a hole every time he pitches. I'd trade him to any team that would take him, even if it meant taking most of his salary. RDLR has been good so far. Although there will be bumps in the road, I can see him as a very effective starter. How I see the rotation: 1) Lester 2) Lackey 3) Buchholz 4) Workman 5) De La Rosa Nothing really groundbreaking here as that's about what everyone thinks right now. But will Ben do it? Will he have the guts? I don't think so. He's still worried about depth. Peavy has allowed 7 earned runs today. I am not alone in wanting to dump him. What if he was just DFA'd? Is that feasible? Some team may want him. With Ranaudo, Webster, Wright, and Owens all excelling, depth would be at the bottom of my concerns.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 24, 2014 23:39:43 GMT -5
This plan (via Gordon Edes) makes no sense:You have your three best starters lined up for the Yankees series in De La Rosa, Lester, and Lackey, all already with an extra days' rest. Why are you inserting your #5 starter to pitch the opening game? The only answer would be that De La Rosa is being sent down to make room for Buchholz, rather than Workman being sent down or Capuano DFA'd.
The Cubs series would then be Peavy, Buchholz, Workman. Saying that Doubront gets a start implies that they expect to have optioned Workman by then to make room for Victorino.
Did I name this thread incorrectly? Should it have been "The Rotation Going Backwards"?
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 25, 2014 4:24:21 GMT -5
SIERA is inherently park-adjusted, but it is not adjusted for league, and all the AL starters are penalized by 5%. I was thinking about this, by the way, during the games at O.co Colliseum. Doesn't more foul ground equate to more FB outs than a pitcher would otherwise get? I suppose SIERA- doesn't adjust for that sort of effect? (Which would be pretty hard to do correctly.)
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jun 25, 2014 7:11:21 GMT -5
This plan (via Gordon Edes) makes no sense:You have your three best starters lined up for the Yankees series in De La Rosa, Lester, and Lackey, all already with an extra days' rest. Why are you inserting your #5 starter to pitch the opening game? The only answer would be that De La Rosa is being sent down to make room for Buchholz, rather than Workman being sent down or Capuano DFA'd. The Cubs series would then be Peavy, Buchholz, Workman. Saying that Doubront gets a start implies that they expect to have optioned Workman by then to make room for Victorino. Did I name this thread incorrectly? Should it have been "The Rotation Going Backwards"? If the Sox move Doubront, to the bullpen, and that is a big "if" because Cherrington likes Doubront as a starter, wouldn't we have 4 LHP out there? Seems to me that either Breslow or Capuano is in danger of visiting the DL if we have to make room for Doubront.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2014 7:27:23 GMT -5
SIERA is inherently park-adjusted, but it is not adjusted for league, and all the AL starters are penalized by 5%. I was thinking about this, by the way, during the games at O.co Colliseum. Doesn't more foul ground equate to more FB outs than a pitcher would otherwise get? I suppose SIERA- doesn't adjust for that sort of effect? (Which would be pretty hard to do correctly.) SIERA is based on K%, BB% (and HBP%, I think), and GB%. Maybe popup rate as well; I forget. It attempts to factor in the extra outs from GDPs that a high GB% produces, and essentially estimates BABIP and HR/FB from those components. So the only thing that needs adjusting for is the fact that NL starting pitchers get to face pitchers hitting, thus improving their K and BB rates, while AL pitchers do not.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 25, 2014 7:50:44 GMT -5
I'm confident that Doubront and Peavy will be out of the rotation by July 31st, but until then, RDLR and Workman may have to be optioned to Pawtucket. It makes some sense to wait and see if you can get any better offers for Peavy (who is not a bullpen conversion candidate) and whichever reliever Doubront would bump from the bullpen. The front office may also be hesitant to sell this early-- it sends a bad signal to the clubhouse (which is likely more fond of Peavy than the new kids), and it's still possible (though increasingly less likely) that they could get back in the race with a couple hot weeks. The downside is that Workman/RDLR lose four starts or so that they could have made in Boston. That's unfortunate, but not a huge deal if they get called up right after the trade deadline and spend the rest of the year in the big league club's rotation.
The reason Doubront is a bad mid-season trade candidate, by the way, is that his trade value is currently at its lowest, and it likely can only increase if he has a good few months in the bullpen. Alternatively, he might actually be useful as a bullpen arm if throwing shorter stints lets him dial up the velocity a little bit. Miller and Capuano are free agents, while Britton looks totally lost in Pawtucket, so he might end up being an important part of the bullpen as soon as next year.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 25, 2014 8:16:40 GMT -5
SIERA is based on K%, BB% (and HBP%, I think), and GB%. GB-FB actually, not GB%. What I mean is this: Say you have a hypothetical plate appearance in Fenway Park which has first a popup into the seats and then a groundball on the next pitch. In Oakland that might be counted as a flyball out instead, because the popup gets caught. SIERA doesn't just like GBs, it likes them better when they go along with more GBs, hence the ±(GB-FB)² term. So, if you get extra popups due to more foul ground, SIERA might like you less than it otherwise would.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 25, 2014 8:27:03 GMT -5
SIERA is based on K%, BB% (and HBP%, I think), and GB%. GB-FB actually, not GB%. What I mean is this: Say you have a hypothetical plate appearance in Fenway Park which has first a popup into the seats and then a groundball on the next pitch. In Oakland that might be counted as a flyball out instead, because the popup gets caught. SIERA doesn't just like GBs, it likes them better when they go along with more GBs, hence the ±(GB-FB)² term. So, if you get extra popups due to more foul ground, SIERA might like you less than it otherwise would. Yup, you're right -- there should be a small park adjustment for GB-FB as well. I think it's going to be very small, though.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jun 25, 2014 8:38:53 GMT -5
I'm confident that Doubront and Peavy will be out of the rotation by July 31st, but until then, RDLR and Workman may have to be optioned to Pawtucket. I'm going to save JimEd the trouble! <throws temper tantrum complete with foot stomping> Your reasoning (well your suggestion about BC's reasoning) is sound, but it's still the wrong decision at this point. Peavy and Capuano are worthless and will continue to be. Totally agree here. But he should go to the 'pen now and not come back to potential starter-hood until injuries or ST, whichever comes later.
|
|
|
Post by ctfisher on Jun 25, 2014 10:31:35 GMT -5
I get that he turns 40 soon, but that doesn't mean he's suddenly going to pitch terribly. Rivera was still going strong at 43 when he retired. I think Koji can be a strong reliever for another couple of years. He's not relying on fast fastballs to get hitters out. It's all location with him. If the Red Sox want to have a good shot at winning in 2015, then Koji is the guy you want to close and you want the rotation to be headed by Lester and Lackey. Just because the Sox stink in 2014 doesn't mean that they don't have the pieces in place to be very good in 2015. They need to change the supporting cast and get a strong bat or two. Rivera is more of an exception than the rule, and he threw harder than Koji to begin with. At a certain point, if you're throwing a BP speed fastball, then people are going to hit it. That being said, I just looked at Trevor Hoffman's stats, and he pitched well through his age 41 season and is a better comp I'd say, so maybe I'm being too pessimistic on Koji. Still, he's a free agent this offseason, so he won't offer the same value next year, and who's to say he wouldn't want to leave anyway, given the season we appear to be headed for, and the money he might potentially get elsewhere, and considering that this front office appears to stick pretty strictly to a value based approach to signing players, even if they could afford to match anyone else's offer on a 1-2 year deal
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jun 25, 2014 13:47:34 GMT -5
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 31s Farrell on @weei: Move for Buchholz still to be detemined. Said three options for move - DL, option somebody or trade. Stay tuned
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jun 25, 2014 19:16:03 GMT -5
Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 11s Farrell, asked if plan was for Peavy to make his next start, said: "For now." To me, that says, "Stay tuned.''
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 26, 2014 5:28:33 GMT -5
Moved here from the game thread: Now the question is -- what's the idea of Workman taking Rubby's start Friday night in NYC? Do they really think that Workman is better, and if so, when was the entire F.O. transported to the planet Bizarro? I'm expecting a Peavy DL stint soon. Farrell said something about a groin issue for him. If they were planning on DL'ing Peavy, why not keep Rubby on his regular turn and have Workman take Peavy's next start, opening the Cubs series? However, here's a rationale for starting Workman Friday. Farrell says in today's Globe that they really want to add another position player, preferably a RH bat. (That very likely means Hassan, who has been hitting the ball great since he was optioned.) My hypothesis is that they're really trying hard to trade Peavy before his next start, in fact, before the Yankees series, so that they can recall Hassan and have him start Friday against LHP Vidal Nuno. If they can't trade Peavy by Saturday, they'll option Workman instead, after his Friday start, in order to recall Hassan. So the Cubs series would be: If they trade Peavy before Saturday: De La Rosa, Buchholz, Workman If they option Workman, then trade Peavy before next Wednesday: De La Rosa, Buchholz, Doubront. They'd recall a reliever (or select Tommy Layne, who could then be optioned) until they can recall Workman and send Doubront back to the pen. If they option Workman, but haven't traded Peavy yet: De La Rosa, Buchholz, Peavy. This explains why they're starting Workman Friday, why they're talking about the possibility of Doubront starting against the Cubs, and it's consistent with the colossal lack of enthusiasm Farrell has shown about starting Peavy again.
|
|
|