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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 25, 2014 18:46:34 GMT -5
I wonder where all this Bogaerts trade talk is coming from?
No, I don't.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 25, 2014 18:47:02 GMT -5
I was under the impression that Lester has a figure that would satisfy him, and for which he would return to the Sox even if he had better offers. I'm not sure how having a preference to return here would work otherwise. If you were in line for a big raise, really liked your job, and were about to start fielding offers from other companies, wouldn't you decide what you were worth, and then ask for it? Would it make any sense to not know that number before you started fielding offers? Would it make any sense to change that number after you started getting offers? You'd pick the number that would make you entirely happy, because you really want to keep your job, and yoi believe you are worth that much. Getting a lot more is not going to make you happier. I was even under the impression that 6/$138 was reported as that number. If you're the Sox, you wait until someone bids it up that amount, and then you match it. Fat lady sings. Now, can someone run with that assumption and see what kind of money is left over for Miller, etc.?
I think that would hinge entirely on two things. First, if 189 is even in the minds of ownership in 2015 or 2016. Two, if it is, how much salary relief total do they get from Cespedes/Victorino/Craig/etc. If they still plan on being around the tax limit by 2016, then there probably wouldn't be much $ left. If they don't really care, then I'd bet Miller ends up back in Boston
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 25, 2014 19:00:13 GMT -5
Think his glove probably could for sure. If the Sox could use him and little more to acquire Hamels? They probably should go that way if Lester's price ends up over 130m and 6y, it's just too much in my book Dan, though still think Seattle holds the cheaper options without giving up and key pieces.
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Post by jdb on Nov 25, 2014 19:10:22 GMT -5
Meanwhile, if pitches thrown count for anything (pending the all-important pre-signing MRI, of course), since entering MLB, pitches throw, according to FanGraphs are: Shields (age 33 on opening day, 2015): 29464 Lester (age 31 on opening day, 2015): 26328 Hamels (age 31 on opening day, 2015) 27887 Scherzer (age 30 on opening day, 2015): 20947 This is why I am (at least in theory) OK with Scherzer for 7 if they are willing to do Lester for 6. I say in theory because I think it's playing with fire to give any pitcher over 31 more than 5 years, no matter how well you know him. I'll point out Samardzija has limited mileage on his arm as well.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 25, 2014 19:17:18 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 6s6 seconds ago
John Henry says #RedSox willing to go over $189 million luxury tax
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 25, 2014 19:17:38 GMT -5
Think his glove probably could for sure. If the Sox could use him and little more to acquire Hamels? They probably should go that way if Lester's price ends up over 130m and 6y, it's just too much in my book Dan, though still think Seattle holds the cheaper options without giving up and key pieces. I agree that there are cheaper options, but below the number 1 level. The Sox must have two of those to be competitive. Either that, or they must have one hell of a BP, a lot better than it is now, and right now it isn't bad. But if the Sox have a bunch of five and six inning starters, they would have to significantly strengthen the BP. I'd rather keep the BP close to where it is now - maybe adding Miller - and try real hard to get two number one's. The do a deal with Seattle for Iwakuma or Walker.
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 25, 2014 19:18:42 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 6s6 seconds ago John Henry says #RedSox willing to go over $189 million luxury tax And bingo...
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 25, 2014 19:19:47 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 6s6 seconds ago
John Henry says #RedSox willing to go over $189 million luxury tax
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 12m12 minutes ago
John Henry says his comment about long-term contracts "was really overblown. ... You can't win unless you engage in free agency."
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Post by kman22 on Nov 25, 2014 19:27:50 GMT -5
Could Marrero replace Bogaerts without hurting the team? He certainly would improve the defense, and if he hits .250, which he probably would, would the potential loss of the better bat of Bogaerts be offset by the additional thumpers just added, and by the improved defense at SS? What if Bogaerts did bring a premium pitcher, Hamels or Zimmerman, etc? Marrero probably would hit .250? Bogaerts was far more revered as a hitter entering the majors last season and he didn't reach .250 last season.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 25, 2014 19:28:01 GMT -5
Meanwhile, if pitches thrown count for anything (pending the all-important pre-signing MRI, of course), since entering MLB, pitches throw, according to FanGraphs are: Shields (age 33 on opening day, 2015): 29464 Lester (age 31 on opening day, 2015): 26328 Hamels (age 31 on opening day, 2015) 27887 Scherzer (age 30 on opening day, 2015): 20947 This is why I am (at least in theory) OK with Scherzer for 7 if they are willing to do Lester for 6. I say in theory because I think it's playing with fire to give any pitcher over 31 more than 5 years, no matter how well you know him. I'll point out Samardzija has limited mileage on his arm as well. Yes he is right there with Zimmerman with approximately half as many pitches thrown.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 25, 2014 20:05:05 GMT -5
Now Jake Wesley is saying the RS are debating whether to up their offer to Lester. I want him back here as badly as anyone but it's starting to look like he's determined to squeeze every dime out. So much for his Herald statement that he'd leave $20 million on the table to be somewhere he knows he'll be happy, I guess.
It's getting to the point where the RS may have to walk away from the table.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 25, 2014 20:19:11 GMT -5
Now Jake Wesley is saying the RS are debating whether to up their offer to Lester. I want him back here as badly as anyone but it's starting to look like he's determined to squeeze every dime out. So much for his Herald statement that he'd leave $20 million on the table to be somewhere he knows he'll be happy, I guess. It's getting to the point where the RS may have to walk away from the table. He has an agent, and it's his agents job to get the best deal he can for his client. We tend to think of agents as greedy, but a lot of it is professional. And this is why I think (and have thought) people have been greatly overestimating the likelihood of the Red Sox actually getting a major discount in Lester negotiations. Even if Lester were willing to sign for a lot less, it would still have been his agent's job to determine how high the Red Sox were willing to go and get that much. That was as true last off-season as it is now.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Nov 25, 2014 20:23:04 GMT -5
Also the Red Sox are still better over-paying for Lester than trading high-end prospects for Hamels. The Red Sox have money; opportunities to acquire young, potentially high end players are harder to come by for a team that expects to contend every year.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 25, 2014 20:24:36 GMT -5
Now Jake Wesley is saying the RS are debating whether to up their offer to Lester. I want him back here as badly as anyone but it's starting to look like he's determined to squeeze every dime out. So much for his Herald statement that he'd leave $20 million on the table to be somewhere he knows he'll be happy, I guess. It's getting to the point where the RS may have to walk away from the table. He has an agent, and it's his agents job to get the best deal he can for his client. We tend to think of agents as greedy, but a lot of it is professional.And this is why I think (and have thought) people have been greatly overestimating the likelihood of the Red Sox actually getting a major discount in Lester negotiations. Even if Lester were willing to sign for a lot less, it would still have been his agent's job to determine how high the Red Sox were willing to go and get that much. That was as true last off-season as it is now. Oh, I agree. If you read my post, I'm not really knocking him for trying to get every dime. I'm just saying that at a point the RS may have to make a business decision to go in a different direction and I think we're getting close to that point. But I think the reason people thought the RS would get a discount is because Jon himself pretty much came out and said it.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 25, 2014 20:31:39 GMT -5
“@gdubcub: Source: Report that Cubs offered Lester a six-year deal of more than $135m is "not accurate."”
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Nov 25, 2014 20:33:53 GMT -5
I love Jordan Zimmermann and would strongly consider giving up one of Betts/Boegarts and one of Owens/Johnson/EdRod (plus a Ranaudo/Webster type) IF the sox could get a 6/140 type extension as part of it. No way he gives up the chance to go to free agency, and the Nats would probably just keep him at that price, but that's the only way I see giving up Betts or Boegarts.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 25, 2014 20:51:59 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Cherington: Signing of Ramirez to play left field "increases the likelihood that we will" make a trade involving an outfielder.”
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 25, 2014 20:57:21 GMT -5
I love Jordan Zimmermann and would strongly consider giving up one of Betts/Boegarts and one of Owens/Johnson/EdRod (plus a Ranaudo/Webster type) IF the sox could get a 6/140 type extension as part of it. No way he gives up the chance to go to free agency, and the Nats would probably just keep him at that price, but that's the only way I see giving up Betts or Boegarts. i wouldn't give up either of them for Zimmermann, nor would I give him 6/140. Owens/Rodriguez + Ranaudo + Rijo would be my offer.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 25, 2014 21:05:47 GMT -5
Is Zimmerman even that good? Numbers don't look that impressive but then again I haven't really seen him pitch.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2014 21:13:23 GMT -5
He's not 6/140 good
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Post by mannofsteele on Nov 25, 2014 21:31:40 GMT -5
Based on the market, there's little doubt that he isn't. It is going to cost a premium price to get Jon Lester to return to Boston. It happens. Someone you know with the ability to pitch in the biggest games. He has more appeal than any start to me on the market. With no insult to Scherzer.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 25, 2014 21:31:58 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Cherington: Signing of Ramirez to play left field "increases the likelihood that we will" make a trade involving an outfielder.” By my estimation it increases it from about 99.3% to 100%.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 25, 2014 21:37:45 GMT -5
Based on the market, there's little doubt that he isn't. It is going to cost a premium price to get Jon Lester to return to Boston. It happens. Someone you know with the ability to pitch in the biggest games. He has more appeal than any start to me on the market. With no insult to Scherzer. Absolutely not. He's definitely worse than Scherzer. He has a pitcher friendly park in the NL. He had a great year but in general his peripherals, while impressive, do not match up to Scherzer's. Zimmermann is a good #2, not the #1 that Scherzer has been.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2014 22:14:53 GMT -5
Based on the market, there's little doubt that he isn't. It is going to cost a premium price to get Jon Lester to return to Boston. It happens. Someone you know with the ability to pitch in the biggest games. He has more appeal than any start to me on the market. With no insult to Scherzer. Ok you apparently have an irrational love for him. He's very good but hardly has the track record
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 25, 2014 22:23:29 GMT -5
He's better than Matt Cain, who was able to get a 6/125m extension 2y ago. I personally think Zimmerman can get 150m+ next season via FA over 6y by just continuing to dominate the opponent with 2 pitches.. FB and slider. No loss of velocity over the last 4 seasons.. Yes. He has been every good as Scherzer, just maybe a knock for being in the NL is it.
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