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2015 Draft Discussion
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Post by jmei on May 15, 2015 6:47:58 GMT -5
Root for the Diamondbacks to make a wild card first overall pick, as has been rumored.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2015 7:39:29 GMT -5
Root for the Diamondbacks to make a wild card first overall pick, as has been rumored. Yeah, Dave Stewart going to see Whitley has me hopeful, even if just for the comedy aspect.
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 8:01:39 GMT -5
Root for the Diamondbacks to make a wild card first overall pick, as has been rumored. I am rooting but, unless something happens, there is more buzz about Tate or Swanson at #1 than a below-market deal for a prepster. Also, MIN is key since I am hearing they are on Bregman. Possible draft scenarios: 1. ARI - Tate/Stephenson 2. HOU - Rodgers/Rodgers 3. COL - Swanson/Tate 4. TEX - Harris/Swanson 5. HOU - Cameron/Cameron 6. MIN - Bregman/Bregman 7. BOS - Fulmer/Fulmer8. CWS - Jay/Jay 9. CHC - Buehler/Harris 10. PHI - Stephenson/Clark
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2015 8:29:55 GMT -5
You really think Houston would go with two HS position players though? I know one's an outfielder and one's an infielder, but I'd think they may take one of the college arms, no?
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 9:17:36 GMT -5
You really think Houston would go with two HS position players though? I know one's an outfielder and one's an infielder, but I'd think they may take one of the college arms, no? I think HOU will take Tate, if available; otherwise, I currently believe they would go for two bats (HS or college) because that's where the value is. I don't view the top college arms as being on the same level as the top bats. BA has six bats in their top 10 prospects. Of the four pitchers, three have question marks (Funkhouser (consistency), Fulmer (size/delivery) and Nikorak (consistency)). If I'm HOU, I'm taking the best talent, period.
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Post by jdb on May 15, 2015 9:49:04 GMT -5
AmFox what's your take on Funkhouser? I'd stay away with that control and if we go college SP I think I like Buelher over everyone not named Tate.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 15, 2015 10:24:24 GMT -5
AmFox what's your take on Funkhouser? I'd stay away with that control and if we go college SP I think I like Buelher over everyone not named Tate. jdb why do you like Buelher over Fullmer? Granted I've only seen them a few times on TV, but wasn't as sure about Buelher. Appreciate your critique.
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 11:35:25 GMT -5
AmFox what's your take on Funkhouser? I'd stay away with that control and if we go college SP I think I like Buelher over everyone not named Tate. It may be recency bias, but Funk's lack of command is concerning. Funkhouser is thought of as an inning-eater with two plus pitches and a solid third pitch. However, he has not taken the jump that people expected this year, which is why, in some circles, Jon Harris (a similar pitcher) has passed Funkhouser. Both project as mid-rotation starters and both are the bigger-bodied pitchers that the Red Sox prefer. Fulmer strikes me as a Sonny Gray comp. Undersized and with a high-effort delivery, he could project as a 2-3 starter or he could be in Boston's bullpen by the end of 2016. High risk for a high ceiling, with the floor of being a set-up man or closer. I'm not a Buehler fan. I see risk in the slight frame and the elbow soreness at the beginning of the year. I see him as a back-of-the-rotation pitchability arm, despite reports of mid-90s velo. But the Red Sox may have him higher, because he is a groundball pitcher, whereas Funkhouser is on the groundball side of neutral and Fulmer is on the flyball side of neutral. The other pitcher who should be mentioned is Tyler Jay. In some ways, he would be the prototypical Red Sox pick, if they were picking in the 20s - lefthanded, cold-weather arm, low mileage, could convert to starter with a bullpen floor. While he may go as high as #8, I don't see the Red Sox taking him. I have not developed a ranking yet, since so much is in flux, but my guess is that I would have Tate, Fulmer, Harris, Jay and Funkhouser as my top five college arms. There is a huge gap between Tate and anyone else.
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Post by jdb on May 15, 2015 12:07:43 GMT -5
AmFox what's your take on Funkhouser? I'd stay away with that control and if we go college SP I think I like Buelher over everyone not named Tate. jdb why do you like Buelher over Fullmer? Granted I've only seen them a few times on TV, but wasn't as sure about Buelher. Appreciate your critique. Well until AmFox post I thought Beuhler had a better chance to start due to his above average control and cleaner delivery. It's not that I don't like Fullmer but just Beulher a tad more. Heck the way he described Funkhouser I could get behind him and hope that control improves a bit.
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 12:32:09 GMT -5
Adding back relevant information from this thread:
From MLB.com’s ranking of USA team’s 10 best pro prospects:
From Keith Law:
From Kiley McDaniel (in response to question comparing Fulmer, Funkhouser & Buehler)
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 12:46:59 GMT -5
BA's mock 2.0 just came out: www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-2-0/1. ARI - Carson Fulmer, rhp, Vanderbilt 2. HOU - Dansby Swanson, ss, Vanderbilt 3. COL - Brendan Rodgers, ss, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS 4. TEX - Dillon Tate, rhp, UC Santa Barbara 5. HOU - Kyle Tucker, of, Plant (Fla.) HS 6. MIN - Daz Cameron, of, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga. 7. BOS - Alex Bregman, ss, LSU
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2015 13:06:33 GMT -5
You know it's a weird draft when, over the course of like a month, a guy could potentially work his way from the low teens to the first pick overall, and a New York prep outfielder could go anywhere from 1-1 to the 20s.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 15, 2015 13:15:58 GMT -5
I hope we get Bregman if the draft falls like that. Zero faith that our scouting dept. is capable of identifying the correct arm from a group of 3-4 iffy prospects. At least Bregman will play in MLB.
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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 13:29:11 GMT -5
I hope we get Bregman if the draft falls like that. Zero faith that our scouting dept. is capable of identifying the correct arm from a group of 3-4 iffy prospects. At least Bregman will play in MLB. There is never a right or wrong answer at the time you're making the pick unless you have seen the future. There is so much uncertainty with most of them with very few exceptions.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2015 13:30:56 GMT -5
Zero faith that our scouting dept. is capable of identifying the correct arm from a group of 3-4 iffy prospects. Based on what? Trey Ball?
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Post by ramireja on May 15, 2015 13:50:32 GMT -5
You know it's a weird draft when, over the course of like a month, a guy could potentially work his way from the low teens to the first pick overall, and a New York prep outfielder could go anywhere from 1-1 to the 20s. Yes, its certainly the weirdest and most difficult to predict draft I've ever followed. It really wasn't that long ago that I was praying for one of Matuella, Aiken, Kirby, or Buehler to DROP to our pick. Now I'm not realistically considering any of those options at 7.
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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2015 13:55:23 GMT -5
You know it's a weird draft when, over the course of like a month, a guy could potentially work his way from the low teens to the first pick overall, and a New York prep outfielder could go anywhere from 1-1 to the 20s. Yes, its certainly the weirdest and most difficult to predict draft I've ever followed. It really wasn't that long ago that I was praying for one of Matuella, Aiken, Kirby, or Buehler to DROP to our pick. Now I'm not realistically considering any of those options at 7. And then you can imagine how different it would look a year from now and that's an insight of how imperfect of a science the draft is. I get so annoyed by people who whine about Trey Ball who shouldn't even be judged at all until the end of this season. Even if Ball never pitches in the majors, he wasn't a bad draft pick at the time the pick was made.
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 15, 2015 13:57:50 GMT -5
I think my top 3 right now is Tate - Bregman - Fulmer.
Tate won't fall to us but hopefully one of the other two does.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 15, 2015 14:04:20 GMT -5
Zero faith that our scouting dept. is capable of identifying the correct arm from a group of 3-4 iffy prospects. Based on what? Trey Ball? I don't think Cherington can identify pitching at any level; amatuer, minors or majors. I just look at all the decisions he makes on pitchers.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 15, 2015 14:50:26 GMT -5
Based on what? Trey Ball? I don't think Cherington can identify pitching at any level; amatuer, minors or majors. I just look at all the decisions he makes on pitchers. There are thirty teams and thousands of sources outside of professional baseball that are working to evaluate over 1200 players that will be drafted in a three day period. Most of these players by definition won't have the talent to make the MLB, seeing as there are 25 roster spots on a team and 40 rounds in the draft. Some players will face developmental, injury, or personal issues. Player(s) from this draft might lead a home invasion, shoot themselves in the leg, or get a DUI(s). The Red Sox as well as every other team have multiple layers of scouts, cross checkers, and executives getting as much exposure to these players as possible, as well as independent organizations like Baseball America, Minorleagueball, Baseball prospectus, and our favorites SoxProspects. Of all the players in the draft pool 0.00% are ready for the MLB without development, and there is a million different things that could happen to a baseball player from June 8th 2015 to their MLB debut date if they ever get there. It's almost guaranteed that any player the Sox pick at #7, would go within the next 10 picks if the Sox didn't pick them, and will be in line with what every other professional in the industry agrees upon. 24 organizations passed on Mike Trout,the unanimous best player in the league (possibly era?) before he was drafted. There is so much more that goes into drafting a player than the recent, non definitive success of pitchers in the Red Sox organization.
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Post by Guidas on May 15, 2015 14:59:53 GMT -5
BA's mock 2.0 just came out: www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-2-0/1. ARI - Carson Fulmer, rhp, Vanderbilt 2. HOU - Dansby Swanson, ss, Vanderbilt 3. COL - Brendan Rodgers, ss, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS 4. TEX - Dillon Tate, rhp, UC Santa Barbara 5. HOU - Kyle Tucker, of, Plant (Fla.) HS 6. MIN - Daz Cameron, of, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga. 7. BOS - Alex Bregman, ss, LSU Sonny Gray had same concerns about "durability." Basically any guy who's not 6-3 or better and without a frame like a linebacker has questions about durability slapped on them - unless there's a genuine injury history. I don't know if Bueller has had TJ or should issues, but I love what I saw from him (at least on video, which I admit is, uh, video).
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Post by Guidas on May 15, 2015 15:13:45 GMT -5
You know it's a weird draft when, over the course of like a month, a guy could potentially work his way from the low teens to the first pick overall, and a New York prep outfielder could go anywhere from 1-1 to the 20s. Agreed. Been interesting to watch Jay's helium, as well. Liking him more based on some of the stuff I'm reading but really have no idea what he is. The motion looks a bit…challenged.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 15, 2015 15:37:19 GMT -5
And here I provide you with the highly scientific, completely accurate pedroelgrande's top 30. If teams don't draft players exactly in this order they don't know what they are doing:
1) Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara 2) Brendan Rogers, SS, Florida HS 3) Alex Bregman, SS, LSU 4) Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt 5) Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS 6) Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt 7) Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS 8) Ian Happ, OF/INF, Cincinnati 9) Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS 10) Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt 11) Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS 12) Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas 13) Garrett Whitley, OF, New York HS 14) Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Lousville 15) Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri Sate 16) Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois 17) Nick Plummer, OF, Michigan HS 18) Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS 19) Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke 20) Nate Kirby, LHP, UVA 21) Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Pomona 22) Phil Bickford, RHP, Junior College 23) Dakota Chalmers, RHP, Georgia HS 24) Demi Orimoloye, OF, Canada HS 25) Chris Betts, C, California HS 26) Tyler Stephenson, C, Georgia HS 27) Cornelious Randolph, 3B, Georgia HS 27) Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona 28) Kep Brown, OF, South Carolina HS 29) Chris Shaw, 1B, Boston College 30) James Kaprelian, RHP, UCLA
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Post by jdb on May 15, 2015 17:16:38 GMT -5
Thanks for your list Pedro. Have you heard any links at all for us to a HS player? Also Bregmans playing tonight on espnu at 8.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 15, 2015 17:21:46 GMT -5
You know I hate this and it never works but maybe a safe pick save some money and go balls to the wall at 81. I still say grab Aiken and slowly develop him if the medicals are okay. If not I am coming around with Bregman or Fulmer because we have extensive knowledge on them for years I am sure we have kept up on them. Does Bregman have any power?
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