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2015 Draft Discussion
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 17:44:53 GMT -5
Thanks for your list Pedro. Have you heard any links at all for us to a HS player? Also Bregmans playing tonight on espnu at 8. I'll let pedroelgrande answer for himself, but the only HSer I've heard connected to the #7 pick is Daz Cameron. Mostly, it's fast-moving college guys.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 15, 2015 17:52:27 GMT -5
Yeah the only HS guy who has been connected to the Red Sox, that I have seen, is Cameron. Must rumors have been on College guys particularly Fulmer and Bregman.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 15, 2015 18:27:27 GMT -5
No idea why, but I'd like to see them draft a pitcher. Maybe because our staff is so terrible. I have been very impressed with Carson Fullmer. Looks like the D-Backs may have the same feeling. Shocked by the latest mock drafts that Allard is so low. Bregman would be fine, but I'd like to see a pitcher I can, at least, dream on.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 15, 2015 19:08:51 GMT -5
LSU is playing at South Carolina on ESPNU. Started at 8. Bregman's popped out in his 1st AB with a man on third. A pitch or two before that he drove a ball deep down the RF line that just tailed foul.
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Post by xithereon on May 15, 2015 19:14:13 GMT -5
I may be the only one interested in him at #7, but I can't help but be interested in Nick Shumpert at that spot. Perfect Game has him rated just behind Allard, he hit .600 this season with a .722 OBP and 1.090 slugging with 5 hr and 33 steals (with apparently 2 CS but it is hard to tell as it says 33 SB 2 SA so I am assuming they are counting failed attempts) in only 19 games. What is most interesting though is that Perfect Game has him attending the 2015 18U PG WWBA East Memorial Day Classic playing for the North East team. He is essentially the only big name in the tournament who is not from Florida and is one of only a handful of players not from the east coast playing in the tournament. This is interesting as the tournament is a wooden bat tournament being held in Jet Blue Park just a few weeks before the draft. If there is anyone who could be a surprise pick for the Sox it would be him. It just seems like too perfect of a scouting opportunity (especially considering I could only find 3 west coast players in the tournament)for the Red Sox and I cannot help but wonder if he is there for the Sox to scout (as they will get at least four games of scouting a high upside prospect playing with wooden bats). I personally view him as the prospect with the most upside in this draft. He has plus plus speed potential, plus hit tool potential, plus power potential, plus fielding potential and a potentially plus arm and supposedly has plus plus instincts. His overall tools are around the same as Rodgers's, but possibly better instincts. In addition the Red Sox already have connections with his family and he has attended several events at Jet Blue Park in the past (including in the video below). Given all of this and the fact that it is highly unlikely he will make it out of the first round, far less into the third, I would be more than willing to take him as a reach in the 1st as otherwise he will be the player from this draft who everyone will wonder how they fell so far given the talent level. I would rather that we get the Trout or Pujols type guy in the draft before they fall (and yes I know we did not have that opportunity with Trout). As a mostly irrelevant aside, Danny Mars played in this same tournament two years ago and Chavis played in it last year. Tournament team roster: www.perfectgame.org/events/Tournaments/Teams/Default.aspx?team=34689Stats: www.maxpreps.com/athlete/nick-shumpert/Shf88fTsEeKZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/baseball-stats.htmA Scouting video:
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Post by mainesox on May 15, 2015 19:14:27 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time understanding the love for Bregman. Somebody help me out here. To me he looks like a 2B with a mediocre bat.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 15, 2015 19:29:28 GMT -5
How does a dude that has slashed .339/.409/.523 with a 64/81 SO/BB a mediocre bat? Yes he is not "toolsy" but he has performed at a high level. His bat iis above avg for a middle infielder. In a draft with as many questions marks as this you take the dudes with track record of performance.
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Post by mainesox on May 15, 2015 19:48:23 GMT -5
High school triple slash lines are even less meaningful than minor league lines. The actual grades you typically see on his hit and power tools are quite underwhelming, especially considering the likelihood of him moving off of SS.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 15, 2015 20:07:04 GMT -5
Bregman plays for LSU. He has had a long track record of hitting from his high school days all the way through College. Not everyone thinks he'll move off SS.
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Post by jmei on May 15, 2015 20:09:57 GMT -5
High school triple slash lines are even less meaningful than minor league lines. The actual grades you typically see on his hit and power tools are quite underwhelming, especially considering the likelihood of him moving off of SS. That's a college triple-slash line, which, as immortalized in Moneyball, does have some predictive value.
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Post by amfox1 on May 15, 2015 20:10:45 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time understanding the love for Bregman. Somebody help me out here. To me he looks like a 2B with a mediocre bat. I like Swanson better, but Bregman flashes four above-average tools and a repeatable swing with some power. He's got a chance to stay at SS, also. If you don't like Bregman's bat, you probably don't like too many bats in this draft.
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Post by mainesox on May 15, 2015 20:11:26 GMT -5
Right, college triple slash lines, my bad, but the point stands. And the fact that "not everyone" thinks he'll move isn't really that encouraging because plenty of people still do; it's the relative likelihood of him moving that is concerning (considering the bat isn't nearly as good if he does).
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Post by mainesox on May 15, 2015 20:14:42 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time understanding the love for Bregman. Somebody help me out here. To me he looks like a 2B with a mediocre bat. I like Swanson better, but Bregman flashes four above-average tools and a repeatable swing with some power. He's got a chance to stay at SS, also. If you don't like Bregman's bat, you probably don't like too many bats in this draft. Actually you're right, I don't really like many bats in this draft. Rogers has a nice bat, especially considering he's more likely to stick at SS than Bregman, and I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Tucker, but other than that I think I stick with a pitcher.
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Post by jmei on May 15, 2015 20:25:53 GMT -5
Right, college triple slash lines, my bad, but the point stands. And the fact that "not everyone" thinks he'll move isn't really that encouraging because plenty of people still do; it's the relatively likelihood of him moving that is concerning (considering the bat isn't nearly as good if he does). Sure, Bregman is not a high-ceiling guy, but he's certainly a high-floor guy, which, in a draft as weak as this one, shouldn't be dismissed so easily. Even if he's "just" a second baseman, a second baseman who projects to be an average to above-average bat is pretty valuable.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 15, 2015 20:28:57 GMT -5
That's fine. I like Bregman. I think he has an above avg hit tool, avg power and above avg speed. Even if he moves off of SS it's likely to 2B, he profiles fine there.
I take him before any of the arms in the draft but Tate. Because Fulmer even though I like him too has the reliever question marks. You have Funkhouser who doesn't have really knockout stuff with command questions. Nikorak is a HS arm with not a lot of track record. Buehler I like him but he has a slight frame and had elbow soreness at the start of the season. Allard I really like but he has the back issue. Tyler Jay has started like one game in his college career.
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Post by xithereon on May 15, 2015 20:29:32 GMT -5
All of the grades I saw on his hit and power tools had them ranked as above average to plus potential. In addition, most of the recent scouting reports I could find on him described him as showing even greater potential upside in his hit and power tools recently, particularly as he has grown and has filled out a little since last year. Admittedly the older scouting reports on him are not great, but the newer ones see, to be nothing but positive. In addition, the slash line information was only given as it provides some support of the scouting reports on the player. Obviously a slash line on a HS player on its own is not a great indicator, but they are far from useless. In general, better players will have better slash lines. Yes, players with less than desirable HS slash lines can improve if they have the tools and put in the work and yes players could have great slash lines but have tools that will not translate well to higher levels of competition. Nonetheless, if a player puts up good slash lines and has very good tools I find the slash line to be a positive indicator albeit a minor one. The real point of it is that, coupled with his scouting reports, it appears that he generally is avoiding swinging at junk, is making contact, is making hard contact and appears to have some semblance of an approach- which I find is always a nice positive regardless of level. Some believe he will be moved to 3rd due to his size, but his defense is considered to be solid and he is blazing fast with a good arm so it would not be unreasonable for him to stay at short. Also most of the reports on his defense are glowing, even if they think he might eventually change positions due to his build. According to Fangraphs, his 6.52 60 yard dash is right at the border of 70 grade speed (note that many scouting reports have not updated since he was around a 55 with around a 6.7 60 yard dash). In addition his arm would be a 50 for a pitcher (he can hit 90 throwing in the infield) and as such should be at least plus as an infielder. In fact, most mentions of his tools claim that he is second only to Rodgers overall at shortstop and many of these are based off of outdated looks at him as most of his tools have been evaluated better recently. Even looking at the out of date information on him I cannot find references to any of his tools as having less than above average potential and the newer reports are much more positive. All that being said I do understand that I am a bit higher on him than many, but I think his potential is unreal and I believe he is the type of player who is more likely to tap into that potential based off of what has been written about him.
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Post by mainesox on May 15, 2015 20:42:53 GMT -5
Right, college triple slash lines, my bad, but the point stands. And the fact that "not everyone" thinks he'll move isn't really that encouraging because plenty of people still do; it's the relatively likelihood of him moving that is concerning (considering the bat isn't nearly as good if he does). Sure, Bregman is not a high-ceiling guy, but he's certainly a high-floor guy, which, in a draft as weak as this one, shouldn't be dismissed so easily. Even if he's "just" a second baseman, a second baseman who projects to be an average to above-average bat is pretty valuable. Maybe I'm off target, but to me his floor is a utility guy who doesn't really play SS. I guess my biggest issue with it is, he's a guy who we can usually get later in the first round where we typically pick, so by picking him we're not really gaining anything we can't always get - to me, Marrero was a better prospect when he was drafted, and a good number of people hated that pick at the time. If I had my choice of guys who have a good chance of being there for us, I'd go with Nikorak or Fulmer (in that order), or maybe with Tucker. I'd rather pick a guy who gives us a shot at something we can't usually get, even if the certainty is lower.
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Post by mainesox on May 15, 2015 20:51:33 GMT -5
That's fine. I like Bregman. I think he has an above avg hit tool, avg power and above avg speed. Even if he moves off of SS it's likely to 2B, he profiles fine there. I take him before any of the arms in the draft but Tate. Because Fulmer even though I like him too has the reliever question marks. You have Funkhouser who doesn't have really knockout stuff with command questions. Nikorak is a HS arm with not a lot of track record. Buehler I like him but he has a slight frame and had elbow soreness at the start of the season. Allard I really like but he has the back issue. Tyler Jay has started like one game in his college career. I'm certainly not trying to say you shouldn't like him, I'm in the minority and I know that, so you're quite likely right about him, I'm just not seeing what other people are seeing I guess.
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 15, 2015 21:05:50 GMT -5
Don't ever say I'm most likely right lol. It's probably the opposite.
This is a good excersice I think. The draft is not an exact science so there is bound to be a lot of disagreement, specially in a draft like this where the consensus is there is no consensus. There will be discussions all over the board on these guys, some will feel like I do others will feel like you do.
That's why I find it hard to fault teams for "bad" drafts, as long as they are following a sound process.
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Post by jmei on May 15, 2015 21:27:13 GMT -5
Sure, Bregman is not a high-ceiling guy, but he's certainly a high-floor guy, which, in a draft as weak as this one, shouldn't be dismissed so easily. Even if he's "just" a second baseman, a second baseman who projects to be an average to above-average bat is pretty valuable. Maybe I'm off target, but to me his floor is a utility guy who doesn't really play SS. I guess my biggest issue with it is, he's a guy who we can usually get later in the first round where we typically pick, so by picking him we're not really gaining anything we can't always get - to me, Marrero was a better prospect when he was drafted, and a good number of people hated that pick at the time. If I had my choice of guys who have a good chance of being there for us, I'd go with Nikorak or Fulmer (in that order), or maybe with Tucker. I'd rather pick a guy who gives us a shot at something we can't usually get, even if the certainty is lower. You're underrating his bat-- it's miles better than Marrero's was when he came out. You're not getting advanced college bats who project to be above-average regulars in the majors picking in the late 20s. Guys like Marrero and Bradley were buy-low candidates whose flaws have more or less continued to plague them (a longer swing and a tendency to overpull the ball for Bradley; general mediocrity with the bat for Marrero). Neither of them was as well-rounded as Bregman projects to be.
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Post by johnsilver52 on May 15, 2015 22:18:32 GMT -5
Based on what? Trey Ball? I don't think Cherington can identify pitching at any level; amatuer, minors or majors. I just look at all the decisions he makes on pitchers. Somebody from within the people he has identified Michael Kopech.
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Post by mainesox on May 16, 2015 0:25:07 GMT -5
Maybe I'm off target, but to me his floor is a utility guy who doesn't really play SS. I guess my biggest issue with it is, he's a guy who we can usually get later in the first round where we typically pick, so by picking him we're not really gaining anything we can't always get - to me, Marrero was a better prospect when he was drafted, and a good number of people hated that pick at the time. If I had my choice of guys who have a good chance of being there for us, I'd go with Nikorak or Fulmer (in that order), or maybe with Tucker. I'd rather pick a guy who gives us a shot at something we can't usually get, even if the certainty is lower. You're underrating his bat-- it's miles better than Marrero's was when he came out. You're not getting advanced college bats who project to be above-average regulars in the majors picking in the late 20s. Guys like Marrero and Bradley were buy-low candidates whose flaws have more or less continued to plague them (a longer swing and a tendency to overpull the ball for Bradley; general mediocrity with the bat for Marrero). Neither of them was as well-rounded as Bregman projects to be. Marrero was seen as a potential above average hitter with plus or better SS defense, and was a potential top 5 pick in a stronger draft going into that summer.
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Post by jdb on May 16, 2015 7:37:33 GMT -5
Also we've gone riskier HS or JuCo players the first few picks the last two years and a guy who could fast track like Bregman or a college arm could prevent that dreaded 2-3 dry spell of a system not producing anyone.
I noticed the CF from Arkansas is shooting up boards and was mocked to the Cubs in that last BA draft. I wonder how much helium he could have and if he could be drafted ahead of Happ. With him, Fullmer, Bregman and Beulher I bet the Sox have a lot of scouts down at the SEC tourney next week.
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Post by amfox1 on May 16, 2015 7:46:09 GMT -5
You're underrating his bat-- it's miles better than Marrero's was when he came out. You're not getting advanced college bats who project to be above-average regulars in the majors picking in the late 20s. Guys like Marrero and Bradley were buy-low candidates whose flaws have more or less continued to plague them (a longer swing and a tendency to overpull the ball for Bradley; general mediocrity with the bat for Marrero). Neither of them was as well-rounded as Bregman projects to be. Marrero was seen as a potential above average hitter with plus or better SS defense, and was a potential top 5 pick in a stronger draft going into that summer. And then Marrero had a disappointing junior season, hitting just .268/.329/.396 in 149 at-bats, and some of his hitting flaws were exposed. The Red Sox bought low, assuming Marrero's junior year did not represent his true value. Bregman is hitting .326/.413/.564 this year and, despite your observations, is considered one of the best college bats in this class. The best lazy comparisons I have seen are to Pedroia and Panik - gym-rat players with above-average hit tools.
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Post by amfox1 on May 16, 2015 7:57:16 GMT -5
I like Swanson better, but Bregman flashes four above-average tools and a repeatable swing with some power. He's got a chance to stay at SS, also. If you don't like Bregman's bat, you probably don't like too many bats in this draft. Actually you're right, I don't really like many bats in this draft. Rogers has a nice bat, especially considering he's more likely to stick at SS than Bregman, and I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Tucker, but other than that I think I stick with a pitcher. Rodgers would be a slam-dunk pick if he falls to #7 (he won't). Since this draft resembles 2013 in a number of ways, Kyle Tucker is the Austin Meadows of this draft. My guess is that, with no picks from #7 to #81, the Red Sox will make their pick based on a combination of ceiling and floor (rather than just highest ceiling) and therefore the Red Sox won't go too far out on a limb with the #7 pick.
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