SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2015 Draft Discussion
|
Post by telson13 on May 17, 2015 19:06:11 GMT -5
He's risky because he has no track record and is pretty short, but what a year for him. 17 HR, more BB than K, 20 SB. I could see him appealing to the Sox because of his youth...it's another year of development time that they get to dictate coaching during. Plus, the BB:K rate is right up their alley. It seems like, in a draft full of risk, they're going to shoot for high ceiling. They obviously don't consider size a make-or-break (Betts, Pedroia, Margot to name a few) issue, and he looks like he's got quality tools across the board.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 17, 2015 19:16:28 GMT -5
For all of those who are drooling over Aiken, does the fact that there has been absolutely no buzz surrounding the Sox with Aiken, nor did any mock draft by the "experts" even include Aiken in the top 10, even register? This tells me that there must be huge medical risks with him, and that it's more than a little TJ surgery going on. Wouldn't the Sox be all over him if it was a routine surgery that was going to be very likely to put him back to where he was before the injury? If Aiken was somebody that looked like he didn't have that big a health risk, wouldn't the Sox be all over him? And there's absolutely nothing in that regard. This tells me that the kid is not healthy and that there's a lot of doubt that he'll ever be that kind of healthy again. Because if he was, I'd want the Sox to draft him, too. All things being equal, I'd love to see the Sox draft a guy who can be a front-line starter. The thought of a healthy Aiken, teamed up with a Kopech, and an arm like Anderson Espinoza, would give a lot of hope for the future, even if that's a big dream, and there's a lot between here and there. I just don't think that's the case here, unfortunately. I think the Sox want Bregman, or if they don't get him, Fullmer. If that doesn't happen, maybe it's this young OF we're hearing about? I'm not sure that that says anything...the Sox are really very good about playing things close to the vest (Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello extension as recent examples). I admit, Fullmer even with all of his delivery and size questions has been healthy and flat-out dominant, but at this point (with Tate maybe tiring after 80 innings?) he might not make it to the Sox. FWIW, Kopech is looking like a great pick...pitching well in Greenville and hitting 100 mph. With Acosta, Cosart, Ball, and Espinoza, adding Aiken, Tate, or Fullmer would really give them a stable of fantastic young arms as the next wave.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on May 17, 2015 22:15:24 GMT -5
What was the story with Vitek when we got him. He got a lot of helium and came out of nowhere from Ball state?
|
|
|
Post by pasadenasox on May 17, 2015 23:03:08 GMT -5
If I remember correctly he was supposed to be a polished solid hit-tool guy with fringy power and no-clear cut position and got linked with a couple of teams drafting higher, Oakland was one.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 17, 2015 23:06:34 GMT -5
If I remember correctly he was supposed to be a polished solid hit-tool guy with fringy power and no-clear cut position and got linked with a couple of teams drafting higher, Oakland was one. I'm certainly no expert, but I didn't care for the Vitek pick even back then. I always thought of him as a tweener who had nowhere to play, because he didn't have the power for the corner positions.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 18, 2015 6:50:34 GMT -5
Do teams have access to any of these players to run their hand-eye coordination tests on them or to do interviews?
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on May 18, 2015 7:58:04 GMT -5
Do teams have access to any of these players to run their hand-eye coordination tests on them or to do interviews? Well, that is a good question. For the NFL (and I assume some other major sports) there are so many qualifying "measureables" one would think that would be available in baseball....although I have not seen it. Most of the data aside from home to first or radar gun readings seem to be on the level of "the eye test". jimed, I don't put a great amount of stock in BABIP (or as much as some others) because I feel it is skewed toward luck. I believe skill is an essential component of the result.
|
|
|
Post by joshv02 on May 18, 2015 8:07:00 GMT -5
If I remember correctly he was supposed to be a polished solid hit-tool guy with fringy power and no-clear cut position and got linked with a couple of teams drafting higher, Oakland was one. I'm certainly no expert, but I didn't care for the Vitek pick even back then. I always thought of him as a tweener who had nowhere to play, because he didn't have the power for the corner positions. Yeah, but that view was wrong - or at least not important. He couldn't hit (power or not) for any position short of backup SS. The player he was compared against at the time, Zach Cox, is now repeating his 5th year at AA. Baseball drafting sucks.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on May 18, 2015 12:24:39 GMT -5
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on May 18, 2015 12:44:59 GMT -5
Whitley sneaking in at 7. I've heard a lot more about Tucker than Whitley (both HS OFs).
Bregman at 4, Fulmer at 6, Benintendi at 9.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan2015 on May 18, 2015 12:51:54 GMT -5
Really want fulmer. Feel like he has big potential and keeps proving people wrong. This is a big comparison but I feel he could be a sonny gray type, something to shoot for.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2015 12:53:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jdb on May 18, 2015 13:21:02 GMT -5
Really want fulmer. Feel like he has big potential and keeps proving people wrong. This is a big comparison but I feel he could be a sonny gray type, something to shoot for. Lots of talk now about Fulmer going 1-1.
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on May 18, 2015 15:03:46 GMT -5
Really want fulmer. Feel like he has big potential and keeps proving people wrong. This is a big comparison but I feel he could be a sonny gray type, something to shoot for. Lots of talk now about Fulmer going 1-1. Where?
|
|
|
Post by bigpupp on May 18, 2015 15:28:28 GMT -5
What was the story with Vitek when we got him. He got a lot of helium and came out of nowhere from Ball state? Not a helium pick. In fact, he was mocked to go as high as 9 to San Diego for months before the draft (funny that they ended up picking Whitson).
|
|
|
Post by jdb on May 18, 2015 18:30:25 GMT -5
Lots of talk now about Fulmer going 1-1. Where? The last BA mock had him there and a few D Back blogs said Stewart has switched his attention to a college arm. In this scenario if Fulmer, Tate, Bregman and Swanson are gone you would think The Arky CFer becomes the favorite since we are linked to college guys. I'd be fine with that but also like some of the HS players in that range. I really think Trenton Clark could be a high upside pick.
|
|
|
Post by mookiemagicfan on May 19, 2015 11:16:24 GMT -5
For me: in this order 1. Fulmer 2. Aiken 3. Tucker 4. Bregman 5. Bendintini
assuming Rodgers and Tate are gone
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
|
Post by steveofbradenton on May 19, 2015 14:05:42 GMT -5
For me: in this order 1. Fulmer 2. Aiken 3. Tucker 4. Bregman 5. Bendintini assuming Rodgers and Tate are gone My order of interest is: 1) Fulmer 2) Allard 3) Bregman 4) Aiken 5) Nikorak You might guess, I want a pitcher who I can dream on. I'm surprised abouth how many HS outfielders are ranked so highly. If we go that way, give me POWER
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on May 19, 2015 14:18:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jrffam05 on May 19, 2015 15:04:31 GMT -5
Comment From McDude We’ve seen draft prospects is the past few drafts with TJS not really fall much due to injury; why are Aiken and Matuella projected to go so low in many mock drafts?… wouldnt the risk be the worth the reward even in the middle of the first round? Kiley McDaniel: Matuella hasn’t been healthy for longer than 30 innings at a time and lots of scouting directors haven’t seen him. Aiken may have the trainwreck elbow to end all elbows once we find out if the buzz is accurate or not. I’ve found that fans, particularly semi-informed ones, think their team should take Matuella or Aiken in the top 10-12 picks because rehabbing injuries are automatic (Giolito, Hoffman, etc.) for these guys and these guys are really good. It isn’t that simple and these guys are different than those guys. Let me pose the Aiken question this way, if Aiken's surgery and medical records come out to be regular (similar to Hoffman), is there another reason to not like him at #7? I can't see a healthy Hoffman and a healthy Aiken's value being materially different, and in a weak class Aiken at 7 doesn't seem unreasonable compared to Hoffman at 9. I also think (uneducated guess) injuries being similar and all other factors equal it would be preferable to have the younger player recovery instead of the older. The #9 and #11 picks as a justification for Hoffman doesn't make sense to me. BPA in the draft always, and an injured Hoffman at #9 is reasonably the BPA based on the team's evaluation. The risk of a gap in talent doesn't make sense to me either, because picking a HS player or a College player with the top pick will naturally create a gap in talent. Hopefully an answer to this question will reduce the Aiken debate to a binary, either his surgery/arm is typical and he is an option at #7, or it's complicated and he is not an option at #7. I'm one of the bigger fan boys of Aiken on this site, and I've already started looking at this draft with him not being an option.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 19, 2015 15:19:26 GMT -5
Comment From McDude We’ve seen draft prospects is the past few drafts with TJS not really fall much due to injury; why are Aiken and Matuella projected to go so low in many mock drafts?… wouldnt the risk be the worth the reward even in the middle of the first round? Kiley McDaniel: Matuella hasn’t been healthy for longer than 30 innings at a time and lots of scouting directors haven’t seen him. Aiken may have the trainwreck elbow to end all elbows once we find out if the buzz is accurate or not. I’ve found that fans, particularly semi-informed ones, think their team should take Matuella or Aiken in the top 10-12 picks because rehabbing injuries are automatic (Giolito, Hoffman, etc.) for these guys and these guys are really good. It isn’t that simple and these guys are different than those guys. Let me pose the Aiken question this way, if Aiken's surgery and medical records come out to be regular (similar to Hoffman), is there another reason to not like him at #7? I can't see a healthy Hoffman and a healthy Aiken's value being materially different, and in a weak class Aiken at 7 doesn't seem unreasonable compared to Hoffman at 9. I also think (uneducated guess) injuries being similar and all other factors equal it would be preferable to have the younger player recovery instead of the older. The #9 and #11 picks as a justification for Hoffman doesn't make sense to me. BPA in the draft always, and an injured Hoffman at #9 is reasonably the BPA based on the team's evaluation. The risk of a gap in talent doesn't make sense to me either, because picking a HS player or a College player with the top pick will naturally create a gap in talent. Hopefully an answer to this question will reduce the Aiken debate to a binary, either his surgery/arm is typical and he is an option at #7, or it's complicated and he is not an option at #7. I'm one of the bigger fan boys of Aiken on this site, and I've already started looking at this draft with him not being an option. I don't think you can dismiss the Blue Jays' pick situation as playing into the decision by just saying you always take BPA. Look at it this way: "BPA" is a theory more than it's adding together a set of inputs and coming out with a standard, apples-to-apples, "BPA" number that compares everyone so you can rank them. For a team that can take more risk than another team, their BPA might be a different guy than a team that is choosing, for whatever reason, to be more risk averse. If you have just one of the first 80 picks, your risk tolerance on that pick, even if it's at #7, is probably a lot lower than your risk tolerance if you have 2 of the first 11 picks. If the Red Sox whiff on #7 this year, there's a chance this draft is a complete washout. If the Blue Jays whiffed on #9... they still had 11 and whatever other picks they held. Risk tolerance is a part of figuring out who your BPA is. The above said, I do think a lot depends on what his medicals say. But I also think that we, as fans, simplify even the recovery from standard Tommy John a bit too much these days. It's not a cure-all necessarily, and we're seeing that there is increased chance for injury in the future.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on May 19, 2015 16:15:10 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2015 17:24:23 GMT -5
Benintendi is also 5'10" 180. Sounds just like Mookie, so I want him.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 19, 2015 17:51:53 GMT -5
Didn't Washington Nationals take the same risk as Boston would by taking Lucas Giolito who needed Tommy John surgery 2012 1rd 16 overall there next pick 80 2rd Tony Renda 2B. Now Giolito Rank 6 best prospect top 100 MLB. Tommy John surgery isn't a death sentence as it once was. With Fulmer and Tate gone before the Red Sox pick 7th I think Brady Aiken is a risk worth taking since the Red Sox farm system is ranked 2 in MLB.
|
|
|
Post by buttclown on May 19, 2015 17:58:33 GMT -5
Didn't Washington Nationals take the same risk as Boston would by taking Lucas Giolito who needed Tommy John surgery 2012 1rd 16 overall there next pick 80 2rd Tony Renda 2B. Now Giolito Rank 6 best prospect top 100 MLB. Tommy John surgery isn't a death sentence as it once was. With Fulmer and Tate gone before the Red Sox pick 7th I think Brady Aiken is a risk worth taking since the Red Sox farm system is ranked 2 in MLB. Giolito's and Aiken's situations are not the same. I agree that Tommy John is hardly a death knell anymore but I don't think it is wise to take that risk given the team's dearth of early round picks this year. Also, I feel that even pre TJS Aiken is overrated a bit around these parts because of the associations that come with being a first overall pick. It is not like he was the unanimous pick in that spot in the mold of Harper, Strasburg, or David Price.
|
|
|