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9/23-9/25 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by larrycook on Sept 25, 2014 21:11:48 GMT -5
Sox now 6 for 15 with RISP.
The second Bradley enters the game the hits dry up.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 25, 2014 21:16:35 GMT -5
Vazquez raised his wRC+ from 54 to 69 today with 197 PAs. Good game.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 25, 2014 21:18:00 GMT -5
Sox now 6 for 15 with RISP. The second Bradley enters the game the hits dry up. That's kinda harsh to say before he had an AB.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2014 21:18:59 GMT -5
I wish they had stopped playing JBJ just to keep his average above .200. It's gotten to the point where I feel bad for the kid.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 25, 2014 21:21:03 GMT -5
why would losing our second round pick make us not sign Sandoval? If you let Cecchini and WMB compete for 3B, be prepared to let your unwillingness to let a 2nd rd pick go make us suck next year Because we don't want to give a 5'10" 250 pound player the security of $100+ million so he can take it easy? The money is a different concern, but he wasn't talking about the money. He said we shouldn't sign Sandoval because he'd cost a 2nd rd pick, which is ridiculous
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 25, 2014 21:26:34 GMT -5
Because we don't want to give a 5'10" 250 pound player the security of $100+ million so he can take it easy? The money is a different concern, but he wasn't talking about the money. He said we shouldn't sign Sandoval because he'd cost a 2nd rd pick, which is ridiculous But he was also speculating about the possibility that Sandoval might go Jaba the Hut on you if you give him all that money. If that were to happen, we'd cry over both the sunk cost and the lost pick.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 25, 2014 21:34:41 GMT -5
Because we don't want to give a 5'10" 250 pound player the security of $100+ million so he can take it easy? The money is a different concern, but he wasn't talking about the money. He said we shouldn't sign Sandoval because he'd cost a 2nd rd pick, which is ridiculous You have to look at the entire contract to decide, including the draft pick.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2014 21:38:06 GMT -5
Because we don't want to give a 5'10" 250 pound player the security of $100+ million so he can take it easy? The money is a different concern, but he wasn't talking about the money. He said we shouldn't sign Sandoval because he'd cost a 2nd rd pick, which is ridiculous No, it's not ridiculous. We're talking Pablo Sandoval here, not Giancarlo Stanton. He's not an all-out stud and he's a risky acquisition for the reasons others have outlined here. I'm conservative about giving up picks and want a better player and a less risky player than Sandoval if we're going to give one up. But the others are correctly characterizing my concern about the money/years, too. I suggested in another thread that I'd be interested at four years/$60 million and no pick. Once the price gets materially higher than that, I'm out. As I mentioned, Pedroia was a 2nd rounder, Papelbon a 4th and A. Rizzo a 6th.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 25, 2014 21:40:49 GMT -5
The money is a different concern, but he wasn't talking about the money. He said we shouldn't sign Sandoval because he'd cost a 2nd rd pick, which is ridiculous No, it's not ridiculous. We're talking Pablo Sandoval here, not Giancarlo Stanton. He's not an all-out stud and he's a risky acquisition for the reasons others have outlined here. I'm conservative about giving up picks and want a better player and a less risky player than Sandoval to give one up. But the others are correctly characterizing my concern about the money/years, too. I said in another thread that I'd be interested at four years/$60 million and no pick. Once the price gets materially higher than that, I'm out. yes, it is ridiculous. We're talking about a SECOND round pick here. So you wouldn't be interested at 4/60 plus a second round pick? How low would it have to be for you to sign him with a 2nd rd pick attached?
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 25, 2014 21:40:53 GMT -5
Whose three year decline is really a decline? Sandoval 28 years old 2012 442AB 12 HR .283/.342/.447 wOBA: .338 wRC: 119 2013 584AB 14 HR .278/.341/.417 wOBA: .331 wRC: 116 2014 617AB 16 HR .279/.325/.417 wOBA: .324 wRC: 112 Headley 30 years old 2012 604AB 31 HR .286/.376/.498 wOBA: .378 wRC: 145 2013 520AB 13 HR .250/.347/.400 wOBA: .330 wRC: 114 2014 458AB 13 HR .242/.328/.373 wOBA: .316 wRC: 103 Should we look at Prince Fielder next? He has negative WAR this year at age 30. wRC+ age 28: 153 age 29: 125 age 30: 88 I don't see the relevance. If it is that you simply don't like heavy guys, that's not baseball analysis. There certainly is plenty of evidence that heavy guys age faster, but not all of them do, as Ortiz seems to be proving. And Fielder is the same height at Sandoval and at least 30 lbs. heavier, and it could be somewhat more than that. Also, I am not strongly advocating Sandoval, but just pointing out some facts. That he would cost a pick is definitely a factor. However, a solid hitter at 3B also could be a very key factor towards getting back to the post-season and a pick is worth that. However, as I have previously written, my choice would be to go with Cecchini, and he certainly is doing everything he can to make that appear to be a reasonable possibility.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 25, 2014 21:48:55 GMT -5
Should we look at Prince Fielder next? He has negative WAR this year at age 30. wRC+ age 28: 153 age 29: 125 age 30: 88 I don't see the relevance. If it is that you simply don't like heavy guys, that's not baseball analysis. There certainly is plenty of evidence that heavy guys age faster, but not all of them do, as Ortiz seems to be proving. And Fielder is the same height at Sandoval and at least 30 lbs. heavier, and it could be somewhat more than that. Also, I am not strongly advocating Sandoval, but just pointing out some facts. That he would cost a pick is definitely a factor. However, a solid hitter at 3B also could be a very key factor towards getting back to the post-season and a pick is worth that. However, as I have previously written, my choice would be to go with Cecchini, and he certainly is doing everything he can to make that appear to be a reasonable possibility. I'm just pointing out a significant risk. And I don't compare Papi to anyone. Sandoval is a huge risk for the money he's going to make.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2014 21:56:19 GMT -5
No, it's not ridiculous. We're talking Pablo Sandoval here, not Giancarlo Stanton. He's not an all-out stud and he's a risky acquisition for the reasons others have outlined here. I'm conservative about giving up picks and want a better player and a less risky player than Sandoval to give one up. But the others are correctly characterizing my concern about the money/years, too. I said in another thread that I'd be interested at four years/$60 million and no pick. Once the price gets materially higher than that, I'm out. yes, it is ridiculous. We're talking about a SECOND round pick here. So you wouldn't be interested at 4/60 plus a second round pick? How low would it have to be for you to sign him with a 2nd rd pick attached? That's a fair question and I'm not going to say that I wouldn't think about it. It would depend on a lot of factors. What's the organization's evaluation of Cecchini? Do they see him developing into a 3-4 WAR player? Are we signing Shields? Signing him and Sandoval would mean we're giving up two picks. What else can we do with the $15 million/year that we'd be paying Sandoval? I think you're getting too hung up on the idea that a 2nd round pick is enormously less valuable than a 1st rounder. Remember, the NYY had the sixth pick in the whole damn draft in 1992 and they ended up with a guy who is a whopping -9.6 dWAR (bRef) for his career, so the 1st round doesn't guarantee you anything. (Couldn't resist that one. )
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 25, 2014 22:02:55 GMT -5
yes, it is ridiculous. We're talking about a SECOND round pick here. So you wouldn't be interested at 4/60 plus a second round pick? How low would it have to be for you to sign him with a 2nd rd pick attached? That's a fair question and I'm not going to say that I wouldn't think about it. It would depend on a lot of factors. What's the organization's evaluation of Cecchini? Do they see him developing into a 3-4 WAR player? Are we signing Shields? Signing him and Sandoval would mean we're giving up two picks. What else can we do with the $15 million/year that we'd be paying Sandoval? I think you're getting too hung up on the idea that a 2nd round pick is enormously less valuable than a 1st rounder. Remember, the NYY had the sixth pick in the whole damn draft in 1992 and they ended up with a guy who is a whopping -9.6 dWAR (bRef) for his career, so the 1st round doesn't guarantee you anything. (Couldn't resist that one. ) I just think you are severely overrating second round picks based on Pedroia. Look at these draft success rates www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/3/2255951/mlb-draft-success-rates
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 25, 2014 22:03:14 GMT -5
Another good game for Webster. Seems to be getting a better feel for that sinker, and he's mixng in the killer changeup really well. Again, I really see the influence of Vazquez.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 25, 2014 22:18:11 GMT -5
Webster still has a shot. I hope they keep him. If he can just keep the ball down and throw that sinker more often I bet he does fine. He should continue to improve his fastball command and he seems to be able to pitch with more poise now. He's always going to look like a scared little boy it seems but at least he is performing. I'd rather have him than Ranaudo. And I actually like Ranaudo as a trade piece.
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Post by bjb406 on Sept 25, 2014 23:44:33 GMT -5
Its good to see all our september callups playing so well. Too bad all the rookies we were supposed to rely on for significant stretches have all sucked. Maybe for most of this year the sucking just got contagious. There really wasn't a single offensive player that spent more than half the year on the team that exceeded expectations, with the exception of maybe Holt, but that's more a case of expectations being really low to start the year (I hadn't realized until now how much his numbers had come down). I feel like we still have a ton of talent, but something is going to have to happen next year to get these guys energized.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 26, 2014 0:19:41 GMT -5
Webster still has a shot. I hope they keep him. If he can just keep the ball down and throw that sinker more often I bet he does fine. He should continue to improve his fastball command and he seems to be able to pitch with more poise now. He's always going to look like a scared little boy it seems but at least he is performing. I'd rather have him than Ranaudo. And I actually like Ranaudo as a trade piece. You know, I just don't see that when I look at him. I see someone who's focused on learning how to get big-league hitters out. If you do see that, you might ask yourself why you project that onto him. There's something there for you, obviously. See if you can get to whatever it is.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2014 3:40:38 GMT -5
Another good game for Webster. Seems to be getting a better feel for that sinker, and he's mixng in the killer changeup really well. Again, I really see the influence of Vazquez. In his first 15 major league starts, Webster had just two with a game score over 50 and more strikeouts than walks: his debut last April, and July 8 at LAA. His FIPs in those games were 6.71 and 4.03. He has now done it three games in a row, with FIPs of 5.63, 2.60, and 2.56. I looked at ptch/fx. He's thrown fewer sinkers in these games, and he's had an inch more of four-seam movement, but I think it's no secret that the key has been command.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 26, 2014 8:33:33 GMT -5
Its good to see all our september callups playing so well. Too bad all the rookies we were supposed to rely on for significant stretches have all sucked. Maybe for most of this year the sucking just got contagious. There really wasn't a single offensive player that spent more than half the year on the team that exceeded expectations, with the exception of maybe Holt, but that's more a case of expectations being really low to start the year (I hadn't realized until now how much his numbers had come down). I feel like we still have a ton of talent, but something is going to have to happen next year to get these guys energized. Ortiz might have counted as someone who exceeded expectations, given that he is approaching 40 with his body type. How long is it reasonable to expect excellence to continue?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 26, 2014 9:40:07 GMT -5
Because we don't want to give a 5'10" 250 pound player the security of $100+ million so he can take it easy? The money is a different concern, but he wasn't talking about the money. He said we shouldn't sign Sandoval because he'd cost a 2nd rd pick, which is ridiculous 2nd round draft pick, huge amount of total dollar investment involved to obtain his services and large bust potential involved = Stay away at all costs.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Sept 26, 2014 10:31:21 GMT -5
Another good game for Webster. Seems to be getting a better feel for that sinker, and he's mixng in the killer changeup really well. Again, I really see the influence of Vazquez. In his first 15 major league starts, Webster had just two with a game score over 50 and more strikeouts than walks: his debut last April, and July 8 at LAA. His FIPs in those games were 6.71 and 4.03. He has now done it three games in a row, with FIPs of 5.63, 2.60, and 2.56. I looked at ptch/fx. He's thrown fewer sinkers in these games, and he's had an inch more of four-seam movement, but I think it's no secret that the key has been command. Confidence has to be building too, making keeping this improved command a little easier.
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