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Post by Guidas on Feb 15, 2015 13:08:47 GMT -5
Right now it looks like it will come down to the teams' confidence in their projection ability vs. basic math. Specifically, what do the Sox (and presumably other teams) project Moncada to be for the average of his controllable 6-year MLB career? A 3.5 WAR player? A 4.0 WAR player? A 5.0+ WAR player? If they think the floor is legitimately, say, a 4.0 then how much would 6 years (or 7 if they delay his MLB service time in that first year by the magic 20 days) of that go for, with inflation, plus 3 years of MLB minimum, plus 3 years arb?
Bottom line, if they really - really - think he's a 4 WAR or better player and the injury risk is no worse than any other 19 year-old position player who's built like an SEC safety, then $80M ($40M + $40M tax) is acceptable. Projections being what they are, it's a significant gamble, but if the skill set really proves out to be Cano-ish it's not an overpay.
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Post by soxfan06 on Feb 15, 2015 13:49:21 GMT -5
Red Sox are signing Moncada.
No proof but figured the baseless speculation that we are out, should be countered by some baseless speculation that we are signing him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 15, 2015 14:40:38 GMT -5
Not news, just a guess that if/when we don't get Moncada, and a last chance to get Cubans before the penalties kick in, Alvarez looks like a natural fall-back for $10 mil. Great write up on the Cubans here: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cuban-prospect-emerges-while-others-move-closer-to-deals/McDaniels basically says he expects Alvarez to sign for $10m+ with the ceiling TBD by future looks though they will probably be very limited. $20-40m seems pretty high to me for an 18yo pitcher ... was thinking more like $12-15m but wth do I know. Not surprisingly, Kiley pegged the bidders as the teams already facing signing penalties but left open the possibility that another team might see him as good enough to take the 3 year restriction. With the usual caveat about renegging on verbal agreements with 2015 guys, seems reasonable to assume his market is limited to 6-7 teams... I had also read that article. My thought on Alvarez is that he's the one that hasn't cleared yet and that's expected to take 4-8 weeks. By the time he clears, he'll likely be the last available player and the market should rise. He's also the second highest ranked. 19 year old Moncada would have ranked 8th, 18 year old Alvarez would have ranked 57th, I'm speculating that he will go for at least half of what Moncada gets but it is speculation. |
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Post by burythehammer on Feb 16, 2015 6:40:28 GMT -5
I've come up with an analogy for the people who keep saying our current major league infield/roster makes us less in need of Moncada. And I've seen smart people like Tim Britton writing this.
If the Red Sox had the number one pick in the upcoming MLB Draft, would they not draft an infielder #1 overall even if he was the best player available? All things being equal, ignoring signability strategy and all that, we'd all kill them if they didn't. It's not perfect because obviously the payout for Moncada is going to be like 10 times what it would be for 1.1 in the draft, but that's a separate issue. We're not talking about a Castillo type who can step onto a major league field tomorrow. He may fly through the minors, who knows, but he's a prospect.
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Post by bsout2 on Feb 16, 2015 8:52:00 GMT -5
Question. Why does everyone keep talking about arbitration? Won't Moncada sign a 5 or 6 year major league deal? Thus allowing him to be a FA at 25. I could be completely wrong with how this works.
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Post by mgoetze on Feb 16, 2015 8:58:43 GMT -5
Question. Why does everyone keep talking about arbitration? Won't Moncada sign a 5 or 6 year major league deal? Thus allowing him to be a FA at 25. I could be completely wrong with how this works. Because Moncada isn't allowed to be signed to a major league deal per MLB rules. The only thing he can get is a standard minor league deal with signing bonus. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 16, 2015 9:05:46 GMT -5
Once he's signed, he's the same status as any other minor league player (except he'll be driving a better car).
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Post by bsout2 on Feb 16, 2015 10:50:45 GMT -5
Question. Why does everyone keep talking about arbitration? Won't Moncada sign a 5 or 6 year major league deal? Thus allowing him to be a FA at 25. I could be completely wrong with how this works. Because Moncada isn't allowed to be signed to a major league deal per MLB rules. The only thing he can get is a standard minor league deal with signing bonus. Thanks. I thought he could sign an MLB deal. |
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Post by azblue on Feb 16, 2015 11:55:17 GMT -5
It may be significant that Peter Gammons has offered some caution about Moncada. Did this come from a Red Sox source, indicating that the Sox think that the money it make take to sign Moncada is above their valuation of him? www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-the-moncada-phenomenon-and-its-roots/One of the game’s most respected evaluators, who has seen a lot of Moncada, has some reservations. “Look, he’s a good player,” says the executive. “But we’ve been scouting him in workout showcases, not games. Is he that much better than anyone in the US? Hard to tell. Is he a plus-plus runner? No. Is he a plus defender? No. His swing from the right side has a ways to go. He has a linebacker’s body, but that body really isn’t projectable. Is he a better prospect than the top position player in the States (Orlando HS SS Brendan Rodgers)? I’m not so sure. To play $70-80M for a kid who might be two years away from the big leagues is a lot of money. I saw a lot of Castillo, and Moncada doesn’t do as many things as he does.” |
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Post by burythehammer on Feb 16, 2015 13:54:24 GMT -5
Is he a better prospect than the top position player in the States (Orlando HS SS Brendan Rodgers)? I’m not so sure. To play $70-80M for a kid who might be two years away from the big leagues is a lot of money. The fact that he acknowledges it's at least a question if Moncada would be the best player in the amateur draft sort of contradicts his second statement there. |
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Feb 16, 2015 14:03:20 GMT -5
Probably some spin from a Red Sox scout.
I honestly don't trust Gammons much anymore.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Feb 16, 2015 20:15:14 GMT -5
I like what is said about Castillo though. Castillo has had 7 years to improve his craft though. If Castillo is worth over 70 million then Moncada will probably cost about the same.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 17, 2015 11:10:44 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2015 11:10:54 GMT -5
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Feb 17, 2015 12:56:16 GMT -5
Out of those 5 teams the Red Sox need Moncada the least, as of now.
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Post by soxfan06 on Feb 17, 2015 13:09:17 GMT -5
Out of those 5 teams the Red Sox need Moncada the least, as of now. Which as we have discussed numerous times, shouldn't matter and should actually be the main reason to strongly pursue him. Waiting til you desperately need to add a player like that is a horrible way of running a team. Adding him to a stacked system is good asset management, gives you so many more options. |
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Post by burythehammer on Feb 17, 2015 13:39:05 GMT -5
I realize this is a unique situation with a lot of details to it, but it is amazing that almost every single thing I read on Moncada says something that implies only the Yankees or Red Sox would be subject to the tax or that they are subject to the tax because they already went over their pool not because any team who signs Moncada will automatically be in the penalty. Is it really that hard for people who get paid to write about this stuff to do the slightest amount of research beyond just contacting some sources and regurgitating whatever they say?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 17, 2015 13:43:20 GMT -5
I realize this is a unique situation with a lot of details to it, but it is amazing that almost every single thing I read on Moncada says something that implies only the Yankees or Red Sox would be subject to the tax or that they are subject to the tax because they already went over their pool not because any team who signs Moncada will automatically be in the penalty. Is it really that hard for people who get paid to write about this stuff to do the slightest amount of research beyond just contacting some sources and regurgitating whatever they say? They don't explain it well, but other teams would have to decide to give up on 2015 signings which they probably already have in place while the Red Sox and Yankees have already made that decision. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 17, 2015 14:11:34 GMT -5
I'm more interested in how he performs than where he signs. This kid is 2 years away and has his weakness, so people are really going out on a limb to rank him in the top 20 prospects in baseball. I know nothing about how he will perform, but I think he may be primed to be a dissappointment in a way.
Not to be confused, I still hope we sign him as long as the price seems fair.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Feb 17, 2015 14:47:33 GMT -5
Scouting the stats here but when you consider that some studies (Can't find the link but I'm pretty sure i've read it somewhere) consider that the Cuban League is similar to High A, the number he has put plate discipline wise are outstanding: 10.9% BB rate over 367 PAs as a 17-18 years old with an 18.8% K rate make him deserve all the hype surrounding him.
The guy also DOMINATED the international competition when he was facing kids his age...The kid is legit!
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Post by burythehammer on Feb 17, 2015 20:03:56 GMT -5
I realize this is a unique situation with a lot of details to it, but it is amazing that almost every single thing I read on Moncada says something that implies only the Yankees or Red Sox would be subject to the tax or that they are subject to the tax because they already went over their pool not because any team who signs Moncada will automatically be in the penalty. Is it really that hard for people who get paid to write about this stuff to do the slightest amount of research beyond just contacting some sources and regurgitating whatever they say? They don't explain it well, but other teams would have to decide to give up on 2015 signings which they probably already have in place while the Red Sox and Yankees have already made that decision. No, that's a separate issue. Guys like George King aren't even aware of what you just said. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2015 5:03:03 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Feb 19, 2015 7:01:28 GMT -5
Out of those 5 teams the Red Sox need Moncada the least, as of now. Which as we have discussed numerous times, shouldn't matter and should actually be the main reason to strongly pursue him. Waiting til you desperately need to add a player like that is a horrible way of running a team. Adding him to a stacked system is good asset management, gives you so many more options. You are correct in that Moncada makes sense from the Red Sox prospective, regardless of the state of the system and MLB roster. Nevertheless, from other teams prospectives, they do not have young players ready to contribute or established players at second and third, accordingly those gms may become desperate and actually place more value on Moncada than they would rationally place on him without that desperation. |
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Feb 19, 2015 10:52:03 GMT -5
If I am a GM, I am all in on Moncada. I'd establish his value and go over it a little even. If we sign Moncada, it would lessen the "hurt" for trading for Cole Hamels.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 19, 2015 13:23:48 GMT -5
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