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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2014 15:26:19 GMT -5
It would likely be a major league contract, I think, if we're talking that much money. As you point out, for a player to get a bonus that big is pretty much without precedent in the sport. The closest cases to analogize to I can think of are Soler, who got a nine-year, $30M deal with a $6M bonus, and Iglesias, who got a four-year, $8.25M deal with a $6M bonus. He'll probably get something like the Soler deal, I'd guess. So if that is the case, a team exceeding the luxury tax would be double taxed? Once for international signings and again for any overages on the luxury tax? I don't believe so. July 2 bonuses don't count against he luxury tax, and this would be a July 2 bonus. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 12, 2014 17:38:18 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2014 22:52:11 GMT -5
Not exactly a leap to say that the Sox should go all out on this guy. With the way the Yankees have been spending in the international market, I would say the Yanks have to be the favorites to get Moncada, but I hope the Sox are right there with him.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2014 23:01:30 GMT -5
Those grades are almost certainly inflated, but a true-talent 60 hit/60 power guy is a guy who hits .280 with 20+ home runs a year. That's something that only thirteen qualified hitters did in the majors last year. Thus the hype.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2014 23:01:37 GMT -5
Yeah I wouldn't want to let NY get this guy.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Nov 12, 2014 23:54:08 GMT -5
How can they grade his hit at 60 when he didn't have live pitching?
This is a once in a once in a decade opportunity quite possibly for the Red Sox. I really hope we sign him and he live up to his talent.
Looking at his 60 to 80 million dollar cost after taxes he would cost more than the Sox offered Lester. If things go as planned he'll be in the majors when the t.v. contract is up. It is hard not to get excited over our future lineup by 2017-2018.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2014 7:05:38 GMT -5
According to Passan, after speaking to GMS/execs, Moncada is expected to get about 30-40m (which means 60-80m in reality). I have to think that number will go up between now and when he signs.
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Post by kman22 on Nov 13, 2014 8:00:35 GMT -5
How can they grade his hit at 60 when he didn't have live pitching? This is a once in a once in a decade opportunity quite possibly for the Red Sox. I really hope we sign him and he live up to his talent. Looking at his 60 to 80 million dollar cost after taxes he would cost more than the Sox offered Lester. If things go as planned he'll be in the majors when the t.v. contract is up. It is hard not to get excited over our future lineup by 2017-2018. No idea how it'd shake out in terms of fielding, but there'd be so much potential. |
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2014 9:42:47 GMT -5
With all of the money the Red Sox will be saving by going with prospects over the next 5 years, this is exactly the rainy day that they should be saving it for.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 13, 2014 10:09:51 GMT -5
Feel like its gonna come down to the big players Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers. I heard a Bryce Harper projection from someone on this board, if that's the case I hope the sox do everything to sign him.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 13, 2014 10:38:07 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 9m9 minutes ago
Red Sox, Braves had big showing to see Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada yesterday. Full report on his Guatemala showcase
I like our chances head to head against the Braves. Unless of course they are determined to make a splash before the stadium opening.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2014 10:53:15 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance..
What would Moncada timeline be? I.E. Castillo was signed to start on the ML team basically from the start. Where would Moncada start off and how long would he take before making the majors. I'm thinking Soler is the best comp. I speculating off extremely limited knowledge he would probably be ready for AA right off the bat, but they would probably want to start him in A ball to get his feet wet.
Also in terms of his signing, once he is signed would he basically be treated as a draft prospect of the same age? I.E. not needing a 40 man spot till he is rule 5 eligible, 6 years of ML team control, typical arbitration settings?
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Post by jdb on Nov 13, 2014 10:55:02 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 13, 2014 11:05:34 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance.. What would Moncada timeline be? I.E. Castillo was signed to start on the ML team basically from the start. Where would Moncada start off and how long would he take before making the majors. I'm thinking Soler is the best comp. I speculating off extremely limited knowledge he would probably be ready for AA right off the bat, but they would probably want to start him in A ball to get his feet wet. Also in terms of his signing, once he is signed would he basically be treated as a draft prospect of the same age? I.E. not needing a 40 man spot till he is rule 5 eligible, 6 years of ML team control, typical arbitration settings? I guess he'd start in High-A or Greenville and then go from there depending on his performance. He is incredibly hyped but I think he'll need at least a full minor league season. He would be like any July 2 prospect (From the stand point you are asking), he'll just get a huge bonus. This will be the ultimate straight cash homie signing. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2014 11:05:41 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance.. What would Moncada timeline be? I.E. Castillo was signed to start on the ML team basically from the start. Where would Moncada start off and how long would he take before making the majors. I'm thinking Soler is the best comp. I speculating off extremely limited knowledge he would probably be ready for AA right off the bat, but they would probably want to start him in A ball to get his feet wet. Also in terms of his signing, once he is signed would he basically be treated as a draft prospect of the same age? I.E. not needing a 40 man spot till he is rule 5 eligible, 6 years of ML team control, typical arbitration settings? He'd sign a minor league contract, so he'll be a minor leaguer subject to the same rules as any other IFA who signs one. Unsure where he starts, but if you're saying that Soler started in Double-A, he didn't. He got less than 100 at-bats in rookie and then Low A in 2012, then spent 2013 in High A while battling injuries. You may be thinking of Iglesias, and in hindsight, I think they pushed him too quick based on the fact that his defense was already so good. Moncada probably winds up with a similar track to Soler, I'd think. At 19, I'd have a hard time starting him above A-ball, although he'd have the chance to move quickly. In a hypothetical world where the Red Sox sign him, I'd think he spends a significant amount of time at the complex in Extended or the GCL getting his feet underneath him, and frankly, what position he's going to play could affect where they send him, as 3B in the low minors is jammed already with Devers and Chavis (although the latter may move to second or something). If he's at third but shows he's ready, maybe you'd push him to Salem? |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2014 12:40:33 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance.. What would Moncada timeline be? I.E. Castillo was signed to start on the ML team basically from the start. Where would Moncada start off and how long would he take before making the majors. I'm thinking Soler is the best comp. I speculating off extremely limited knowledge he would probably be ready for AA right off the bat, but they would probably want to start him in A ball to get his feet wet. Also in terms of his signing, once he is signed would he basically be treated as a draft prospect of the same age? I.E. not needing a 40 man spot till he is rule 5 eligible, 6 years of ML team control, typical arbitration settings? He'd sign a minor league contract, so he'll be a minor leaguer subject to the same rules as any other IFA who signs one. Unsure where he starts, but if you're saying that Soler started in Double-A, he didn't. He got less than 100 at-bats in rookie and then Low A in 2012, then spent 2013 in High A while battling injuries. You may be thinking of Iglesias, and in hindsight, I think they pushed him too quick based on the fact that his defense was already so good. Moncada probably winds up with a similar track to Soler, I'd think. At 19, I'd have a hard time starting him above A-ball, although he'd have the chance to move quickly. In a hypothetical world where the Red Sox sign him, I'd think he spends a significant amount of time at the complex in Extended or the GCL getting his feet underneath him, and frankly, what position he's going to play could affect where they send him, as 3B in the low minors is jammed already with Devers and Chavis (although the latter may move to second or something). If he's at third but shows he's ready, maybe you'd push him to Salem? Jrffam - no need to apologize, I think it's a helpful question. Agree with Hatfield's reasoning. Some will depend on what he shows in the spring, but if the talk is that Moncada is equivalent to a 1-1 overall talent and close in age to a high schooler the it might be helpful to look for those kinds of equivalent talents. Carlos Correa and Justin Upton (who was actually drafted as a shortstop but I don't think ever played there as a pro) both were assigned to the Midwest League for their first full seasons. Correa had played in the rookie leagues after signing, while Upton signed later an didn't play in 2005. Correa was also on the young side for a high school pick. So yeah, Greenville would be my bet. An extremely aggressive timeline would put him at Double-A to start 2016. Were he to bash his way out of every league he plays in it probably puts him at a September 2016 debut. More likely I'd say we'd be looking at late 2017 to mid 2018. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2014 13:14:17 GMT -5
Just to clarify, I wasn't trying to suggest that Soler started in AA or that Moncada should start there. It was two different statements, one that Soler seems to be the closest comp, but that's mostly due to a small pool or comparable players. The other was I was "assuming" that Moncada was somewhere around a AA players talent, but wasn't trying to say that is where he will/should start.
Anyway, to progress the discussion, if Moncada got the 40M signing bonus, cost another 40M in overages, and made 20M in the 6 years of team control, (this is the most I could imagine him costing for those 6 years) he would be an 100M investment. At 6M per WAR he would need to be worth 2.77 WAR per year. Obviously there is a good deal of risk in this, if he never makes the majors that is 80M down the drain, which is about 91 Jon Denney's we could have signed instead. This is just a quick and conservative SWAG on my part (I used the highest projected bonus, a high arbitration salary, no prearb extension, no draft pick compensation, Low War-$ ratio without inflation, and also the fact that if he did make 20M in arbitration it would mean he was playing much better than 2.77 WAR per in his first 3 years), but I still like the risk reward of the deal assuming he gets 30-40M. I also think we would see a ton of competition to sign him in the AL East, especially the Yankees.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2014 14:16:07 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 9m9 minutes ago Red Sox, Braves had big showing to see Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada yesterday. Full report on his Guatemala showcase I like our chances head to head against the Braves. Unless of course they are determined to make a splash before the stadium opening. I'm not so sure we have a better chance than them. He's played a lot of 2B, and the Braves could give him that 2B spot, whereas we'd definitely move him to 3B or CF. If he's not 100% open to that, you could say that the Braves have the advantage. Also think of the people in front of him at 2B or 3B: Devers, Chavis, and Rijo all present road blocks to him if he starts in Greenville or more likely the GCL and progresses quickly. Regardless, it will be more than a 2 person race considering the type of talent he is. I hope we win, but I'd be lying to myself if I said I think we had the best shot. |
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Post by kman22 on Nov 13, 2014 14:31:38 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 9m9 minutes ago Red Sox, Braves had big showing to see Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada yesterday. Full report on his Guatemala showcase I like our chances head to head against the Braves. Unless of course they are determined to make a splash before the stadium opening. I'm not so sure we have a better chance than them. He's played a lot of 2B, and the Braves could give him that 2B spot, whereas we'd definitely move him to 3B or CF. If he's not 100% open to that, you could say that the Braves have the advantage. Also think of the people in front of him at 2B or 3B: Devers, Chavis, and Rijo all present road blocks to him if he starts in Greenville or more likely the GCL and progresses quickly. Regardless, it will be more than a 2 person race considering the type of talent he is. I hope we win, but I'd be lying to myself if I said I think we had the best shot. Yeah, I don't think those are actual road blocks here. Moncada (if we are to believe estimates) is going to get upwards of $30M. That would represent more than the Red Sox have spent on those three combined. Plus, wasn't there talk that he could play SS also. I thought I had read that he was listed as a 3B/2B/SS, maybe not. Either way, I think if they drop that kind of cash on him, they would already have a plan figured out on how to get him game time. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 13, 2014 14:39:17 GMT -5
Ben Badler ?@benbadler 9m9 minutes ago Red Sox, Braves had big showing to see Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada yesterday. Full report on his Guatemala showcase I like our chances head to head against the Braves. Unless of course they are determined to make a splash before the stadium opening. I'm not so sure we have a better chance than them. He's played a lot of 2B, and the Braves could give him that 2B spot, whereas we'd definitely move him to 3B or CF. If he's not 100% open to that, you could say that the Braves have the advantage. Also think of the people in front of him at 2B or 3B: Devers, Chavis, and Rijo all present road blocks to him if he starts in Greenville or more likely the GCL and progresses quickly. Regardless, it will be more than a 2 person race considering the type of talent he is. I hope we win, but I'd be lying to myself if I said I think we had the best shot. If you can get top flight talent, road blocks are just considered good problems to have |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2014 14:44:02 GMT -5
I'm not so sure we have a better chance than them. He's played a lot of 2B, and the Braves could give him that 2B spot, whereas we'd definitely move him to 3B or CF. If he's not 100% open to that, you could say that the Braves have the advantage. Also think of the people in front of him at 2B or 3B: Devers, Chavis, and Rijo all present road blocks to him if he starts in Greenville or more likely the GCL and progresses quickly. Regardless, it will be more than a 2 person race considering the type of talent he is. I hope we win, but I'd be lying to myself if I said I think we had the best shot. If you can get top flight talent, road blocks are just considered good problems to have Good problem to have for the team, but if I'm a super-talented 19 year old, a clear path to the majors and an open spot at my natural position would be great. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2014 15:00:54 GMT -5
If you can get top flight talent, road blocks are just considered good problems to have Good problem to have for the team, but if I'm a super-talented 19 year old, a clear path to the majors and an open spot at my natural position would be great. I'm not sure the Braves are in the same realm as we are in financial flexibility. They are working at the upper limit of their payroll right now, we have ~ 55M to spend. This payment is also a transaction, instead of being spread out over a period of time. So it is Bonus X 2 for tax in the period you sign him. That being said if team A offers 20M and team B offers 40M, I don't think the 19 is going to worry about which path is clearer. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 13, 2014 15:03:57 GMT -5
Guys gotta pump the breaks a little bit here:
First off this was his first showcase. The Red Sox and and Braves had a strong presence that's great but lets wait until the process gets further along and we hear who is getting private workouts etc. then we can really speculate on who is in or out.
Secondly if he is as talented as we are lead to believe there is no road block. As somebody said from the Red Sox stand point its a good problem to have. From his stand point he is probably trying to get paid.
We are getting way ahead here we don't know what position he ultimately projects at, we have heard he played 2nd/3rd base for his Cuban team and played a bit of SS for the Junior Cuban National team but that he doesn't project there. In his report of the showcase Badler said he worked 2nd, 3rd and SS but that he didn't look comfortable at SS so I think we can scratch.
So for Red Sox he probably profiles at 3rd base. Devers isn't a sure bet to stay there and while I like Chavis If Moncada is, again, as good as we are led to believe then I don't see the road block.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 13, 2014 15:26:35 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2014 15:39:35 GMT -5
I'm not so sure we have a better chance than them. He's played a lot of 2B, and the Braves could give him that 2B spot, whereas we'd definitely move him to 3B or CF. If he's not 100% open to that, you could say that the Braves have the advantage. Also think of the people in front of him at 2B or 3B: Devers, Chavis, and Rijo all present road blocks to him if he starts in Greenville or more likely the GCL and progresses quickly. Regardless, it will be more than a 2 person race considering the type of talent he is. I hope we win, but I'd be lying to myself if I said I think we had the best shot. Yeah, I don't think those are actual road blocks here. Moncada (if we are to believe estimates) is going to get upwards of $30M. That would represent more than the Red Sox have spent on those three combined. Plus, wasn't there talk that he could play SS also. I thought I had read that he was listed as a 3B/2B/SS, maybe not. Either way, I think if they drop that kind of cash on him, they would already have a plan figured out on how to get him game time. FWIW, you can't really compare the money those players got with what Moncada will get. Chavis was in the draft context, Devers was 16 and much more uncertain, and Rijo really doesn't belong in the conversation. If Devers were to suddenly become a free agent at 19 and his development goes perfectly from now until then, he might fetch a similar bonus. Think of what Xander Bogaerts would have gotten on the open market after his age 19 season - maybe not $30M, but way more than $510k, right? I agree with the others who say it's a great problem to have and you cross that bridge when you get to it. |
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