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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2014 16:08:57 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't think those are actual road blocks here. Moncada (if we are to believe estimates) is going to get upwards of $30M. That would represent more than the Red Sox have spent on those three combined. Plus, wasn't there talk that he could play SS also. I thought I had read that he was listed as a 3B/2B/SS, maybe not. Either way, I think if they drop that kind of cash on him, they would already have a plan figured out on how to get him game time. FWIW, you can't really compare the money those players got with what Moncada will get. Chavis was in the draft context, Devers was 16 and much more uncertain, and Rijo really doesn't belong in the conversation. If Devers were to suddenly become a free agent at 19 and his development goes perfectly from now until then, he might fetch a similar bonus. Think of what Xander Bogaerts would have gotten on the open market after his age 19 season - maybe not $30M, but way more than $510k, right? I agree with the others who say it's a great problem to have and you cross that bridge when you get to it. I'm not referring to money or us being blessed with talent if we signed him. I'm saying if I were Moncada, and two teams are giving me the same amount of money, I'd rather be in an organization where I'm not going to be blocked at all. It's all hypothetical because I have no clue who will offer what amount, I'm just saying that it was premature to say if it came down to Boston and Atlanta (which it likely won't), I don't think we can sit here and assume we have the advantage in signing him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2014 16:41:06 GMT -5
I guess the point would stand though. If you're Moncada, you're nuts if you're not going to sign with a team because they have Rafael Devers (who's probably moving to first base anyway) in Rookie ball.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2014 17:17:51 GMT -5
If you can get top flight talent, road blocks are just considered good problems to have Good problem to have for the team, but if I'm a super-talented 19 year old, a clear path to the majors and an open spot at my natural position would be great. If he's worth signing for $50 million, he has no road blocks.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 13, 2014 18:14:14 GMT -5
Completely agree that our current prospects are irrelevant, from both his and our perspective. But from our perspective, does this at all affect how we approach the 3B market this winter? I'm guessing not since it could be months before he's even unblocked by OFAC, and of course he's still a prospect and could always turn out to a bust, but handing out a six year deal to Hanley or Pablo essentially blocks Moncada at what appear to be his two most valuable positions (not even including CF where he'd also be blocked).
Again, I'm not saying this should prevent us from going all out for Moncada, I'm wondering if it makes us less likely to give out a long-term deal to a FA 3B.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 13, 2014 19:23:57 GMT -5
I don't think so unless they get reports that within a year he'll be ready at which point a one year stop gap looks even better. Realistically though he'll need parts of two seasons to be ready.
The Red Sox want to compete now so I don't think they'll change their plans. It seems like Sandoval is their preferred options at least if you believe rumors and in theory he'd shift to 1B.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 13, 2014 19:46:40 GMT -5
If someone is 19 and would bring the same level of talent as someone who would go 1-1 in a draft.....you make a run at them. I don't care if he's a short stop a catcher or a (insert every other position here) you make a run at it.
After a hole in Portland. (using 2015 projected rosters) there is a nice second wave of talent coming up. It would be very exciting to see a Moncada added to that portfolio of talent and hopefully see him develop with Devers.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2014 20:25:11 GMT -5
The key here will be offering more money than anyone else. I suggest they embrace this strategy.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 13, 2014 21:32:05 GMT -5
The key here will be offering more money than anyone else. I suggest they embrace this strategy. .....and, of course, "they" have more money than the Yankees.....NOT. Recently I heard that the Yankees could spend up to $500M in salaries with luxury tax included, and still make a profit. A hard cap is the only fair way to handle these matters.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 13, 2014 22:22:33 GMT -5
The boogeyman Yankees nobody can beat or compete with are back.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2014 23:08:12 GMT -5
If you can get top flight talent, road blocks are just considered good problems to have Good problem to have for the team, but if I'm a super-talented 19 year old, a clear path to the majors and an open spot at my natural position would be great. If I were going to spend all that money on a guy he better not be looking at nobodies and being concerned they might block him. I'd pull the offer and walk away because his mentality is off. Superstars don't worry about that stuff.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 14, 2014 0:15:13 GMT -5
Moncada is able to leave and visit Cuba as he please, to me that's crazy talks about his talent level.
I could see the sox bidding $35M-$40M for his services, just slightly more then Rusney got.
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Post by bentossaurus on Nov 14, 2014 1:40:19 GMT -5
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen this written elsewhere.
Theoretically, as his OFAC and MLB clearance is still long down the road, he could use the fact that some teams have incurred in penalties for exceeding their allocated allowances to his advantage as leverage for more money, i.e. telling the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox that they have to bid higher or else he'll put off his decision and shutting them out of the race due to MLB's penalties , or the other way around, telling the Cubs and Rangers that if they blow them out of the water, he's willing to wait for the new signing period.
Now my qestion is, if my understanding of the rules is correct, if by any chance he only signs a contract past or on July 2nd, 2015, that contract is not valid for the 2015 season but only for 2016, basically delaying the start of his professional career stateside. Because he's signing a MiLB contract, that can put hum further away from free agency, potentially ending up costing him more money that he can additionally gain right now, by waiting for the next signing period
It would then be in his best interests to sign in this signing period, allowing him to start playing professionally and reach the show quickly, where the real money is.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 14, 2014 2:06:32 GMT -5
That's just for 16 y/o. The rules are that they have to turn 17 by the end of the minor league season (He is 19). So in theory if he signed in the next signing period (July 2, 2015) he could play in minor league games that season. He'd waste half a minor league season if he waited though so I think it would have to be a really great deal. There are also a bunch of new huddles that MLB has put in place where teams can't really keep players at their academies full time well in advance of the actual signing.
It will depend on when he gets cleared, the closer to July 2 the more that door opens.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 14, 2014 7:41:16 GMT -5
The boogeyman Yankees nobody can beat or compete with are back. Well, the Yankees clearly have more financial firepower than the Sox. In terms of financial leverage they and the Dodgers are at the top. If money is the deciding issue and if those teams badly want a player...well, they will get him. Lucchino has acknowledged as much. ...."We are not the Yankees". They had an incredibly long run and ultimately ran out of gas. But even in their worst season over 18 years, they never had a downer like the 2012 or 2014 Sox. We drafted and developed better in the past 15 years or so. They are in the process of retooling that part gobbling up the most international talent this year and restructuring the organization. They have been late to the Cuban party. Let's see where Tomas goes and Moncada after him.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 14, 2014 8:36:07 GMT -5
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 14, 2014 9:14:26 GMT -5
The boogeyman Yankees nobody can beat or compete with are back. Well, the Yankees clearly have more financial firepower than the Sox. In terms of financial leverage they and the Dodgers are at the top. If money is the deciding issue and if those teams badly want a player...well, they will get him. Lucchino has acknowledged as much. ...."We are not the Yankees". They had an incredibly long run and ultimately ran out of gas. But even in their worst season over 18 years, they never had a downer like the 2012 or 2014 Sox. We drafted and developed better in the past 15 years or so. They are in the process of retooling that part gobbling up the most international talent this year and restructuring the organization. They have been late to the Cuban party. Let's see where Tomas goes and Moncada after him. I don't need to wait to see where they sign to know this: The Red Sox can compete with anyone financially in the sport. And I wouldn't say they are late to the party considering El Duque and Contreras played for them. Also up to this point they have spent 15 million on international talent it just happens they did it when the rules changed so it doubled. The Rangers spent that amount a few years back, didn't read about their financial muscle and how no one can compete with them.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 14, 2014 9:23:50 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 14, 2014 11:09:38 GMT -5
The boogeyman Yankees nobody can beat or compete with are back. Well, the Yankees clearly have more financial firepower than the Sox. In terms of financial leverage they and the Dodgers are at the top. If money is the deciding issue and if those teams badly want a player...well, they will get him. Lucchino has acknowledged as much. ...."We are not the Yankees". They had an incredibly long run and ultimately ran out of gas. But even in their worst season over 18 years, they never had a downer like the 2012 or 2014 Sox. We drafted and developed better in the past 15 years or so. They are in the process of retooling that part gobbling up the most international talent this year and restructuring the organization. They have been late to the Cuban party. Let's see where Tomas goes and Moncada after him. Credible source there.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 14, 2014 13:20:41 GMT -5
The key here will be offering more money than anyone else. I suggest they embrace this strategy. .....and, of course, "they" have more money than the Yankees.....NOT. Recently I heard that the Yankees could spend up to $500M in salaries with luxury tax included, and still make a profit. A hard cap is the only fair way to handle these matters. This was mentioned in either an article or tweet in one sentence. I'm already sick of it getting mentioned as absolute truth. If they had a $500 million budget, why did they get outbid on Cano? Or even more amusing, on Omar Infante when they had no infielders?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 14, 2014 13:48:05 GMT -5
I'm sure if they didn't care about making a profit they would sign everyone, but like jimed said, there obviously is some limit as to how much they want to spend.
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 14, 2014 14:21:14 GMT -5
I'm sure if they didn't care about making a profit they would sign everyone, but like jimed said, there obviously is some limit as to how much they want to spend. I think there are diminishing returns at play especially for the Yankees. The higher a team's payroll the lower a return on each marginal dollar spent. Therefor a team's return on marginal dollars spent would at some point go to zero or negative. So even though the team "could" go to $500M in total outlay, it won't because it won't add value to the franchise to do so....but if it did, you could be sure that they would. I am of the belief that there are several teams that could sign Moncada and still end up well below their breakeven point for total player outlays. I would certainly include the Red Sox as one of those teams. Hence who will sign Moncanda will come down to two factors. Who values him the most, and whom is willing to accept the lowest expected marginal return on an outlay for his services. If the Yankees sign Moncada it won't be because their breakeven point is so much higher.
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Post by burythehammer on Nov 14, 2014 15:18:12 GMT -5
Latest "news" is another win for us (and NYY). Apparently teams already have verbal agreements in place for the top 2015 guys and would have to renege and risk pissing their contacts off in order to sign Moncada (assuming he's unblocked this period).
Of course we have no major agreements in place since we can't sign major guys anyway, so this puts us in a better position than other teams even further .
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 14, 2014 16:21:20 GMT -5
Latest "news" is another win for us (and NYY). Apparently teams already have verbal agreements in place for the top 2015 guys and would have to renege and risk pissing their contacts off in order to sign Moncada (assuming he's unblocked this period). Of course we have no major agreements in place since we can't sign major guys anyway, so this puts us in a better position than other teams even further . Link?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 14, 2014 16:35:18 GMT -5
Ben Badler of Baseball America. It's on his Twitter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2014 17:12:55 GMT -5
Ben Badler of Baseball America. It's on his Twitter. Here's the whole article. It's us, the Yankees, the Rays, and Angels who have blown the bonus pool and have no commitments that would be spoiled by his signing. Which means it really looks like us v. the Yankees.
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