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Post by burythehammer on Nov 14, 2014 17:18:27 GMT -5
Does anyone still think it's a coincidence that both us and NYY chose to blow past our pool limit this year. I mean if there's a Yoan Moncada in 2015 or 16 we're out of luck but still, I think they saw this coming.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 14, 2014 17:37:15 GMT -5
Is it just me or does something not seem right here. 19 year old kid with talent that is being compared to two of the better players in the MLB (Abreu, Puig) get's permission to come and go from Cuba as he pleases. It just seems weird, like when you see that amazing girl and can't figure out why she is single.
Anyways for the Yankees 500M payroll plan, it's not really saying much. The quote was the Yankees could have a 500M payroll and break even, which means they have something around 300M of net income. For a business valued at 2.5B, 300M of net income is not particularly jaw dropping. This break even point is also an accounting statement. Break even for a mature business of the Yankees size is very very scary. It means you have nothing left over to pay off your debt and your 2.5B investment would have better served in a savings account, both for the reduction of risk and your return on investment. The owners would be losing a good deal of equity based on inflation alone. We really have no need to worry about the Yankees payroll being anything materially higher than what the Dodgers are spending.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 14, 2014 19:19:05 GMT -5
I'm sure if they didn't care about making a profit they would sign everyone, but like jimed said, there obviously is some limit as to how much they want to spend. I think there are diminishing returns at play especially for the Yankees. The higher a team's payroll the lower a return on each marginal dollar spent. Therefor a team's return on marginal dollars spent would at some point go to zero or negative. So even though the team "could" go to $500M in total outlay, it won't because it won't add value to the franchise to do so....but if it did, you could be sure that they would. I am of the belief that there are several teams that could sign Moncada and still end up well below their breakeven point for total player outlays. I would certainly include the Red Sox as one of those teams. Hence who will sign Moncanda will come down to two factors. Who values him the most, and whom is willing to accept the lowest expected marginal return on an outlay for his services. If the Yankees sign Moncada it won't be because their breakeven point is so much higher. This is a little esoteric for me. Adding a 19 year old phenom is a sizeable upgrade for any team especially considering the very long term potential return. Of course an additional component to a signing team's marginal return is keeping Moncado et al from even more favorably increasing the marginal dollar return for its most fierce rivals. The below Fangraphs link alludes to alleged Yankee financial largess and its biceps flex of same. Does this apparent financial superiority make any sense? Well Yankee Stadium can seat many more than Fenway (and probably does on a per game basis), Heck there are 15 million people in N.Y City alone verses how many in Boston? YES network I also suspect has a more lucrative deal than the Sox do with NESN. There are likely more financial anomalies favoring NY due to size/marketing etc. To say that we are toe to toe with those guys financially is IMO decidedly and perhaps nearsightedly Pollyannaish. But if we are on a near equal financial footing, how did the Yankees have an 18 or so year run without any season being losing compared to the Sox having two of the last three in the last-place dumps?? ... And at a time when the Sox had their greatest success in almost a century! Are the Yankees that much smarter, better organized, have better talent evaluators, better developmental people....? Many would say no....and point to the numerous years' lower status of their minor leagues. So then why did they cumulatively beat the heck out of us over the last 18 years?? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-found-another-way-to-outspend-every-other-team/ |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 14, 2014 20:18:31 GMT -5
Being over .500 is not a worthwhile long-term goal in and of itself. The Yankees have spent a ton of money in 2013-14 to keep their head above water, at the same time the Red Sox retooled from a last place 2012 club into the 2013 World Champions. That the Yankees have won more cumulative games over the last two seasons does not make them a better-run organization.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 14, 2014 20:20:39 GMT -5
There's a mountain of interesting stuff in that FanGraphs story, with this just one of them:
Boras guys: "We're here to take control of this un-organized situation"
CPA's muscle: "You're here to show us your f*****g backside"
So the intrigue is there alright.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 14, 2014 20:20:41 GMT -5
It does make some sense and really it wouldn't bother me an awful lot it the NYY carried a payroll of 3-400m, then were taxed. It would benefit the bottom barrel, poor mouthing teams also, though we would hear a lot of how the NYY are breaking the bank and buying everything.
People seem to forget, or just not care to look back at the fact NY has done this since 1975, with the exception of the collusion years. Early FA seasons (77-80) ANY fa they wanted (or coveted), except for Rod Carew went to NY they were so willing to pay the most under just about any circumstance (except loathing of the city in Carew's case) via FA.
Can see NY going out and really going top dollar payroll wise, especially if they go a couple seasons in a row and struggle. 2014 was season one. What happens in 2015 for them?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 15, 2014 10:28:21 GMT -5
I think there are diminishing returns at play especially for the Yankees. The higher a team's payroll the lower a return on each marginal dollar spent. Therefor a team's return on marginal dollars spent would at some point go to zero or negative. So even though the team "could" go to $500M in total outlay, it won't because it won't add value to the franchise to do so....but if it did, you could be sure that they would. I am of the belief that there are several teams that could sign Moncada and still end up well below their breakeven point for total player outlays. I would certainly include the Red Sox as one of those teams. Hence who will sign Moncanda will come down to two factors. Who values him the most, and whom is willing to accept the lowest expected marginal return on an outlay for his services. If the Yankees sign Moncada it won't be because their breakeven point is so much higher. This is a little esoteric for me. Adding a 19 year old phenom is a sizeable marginal upgrade for any team especially considering the very long term potential return. Of course an additional component to a signing team's marginal return is keeping Moncado et al from even more favorably increasing the marginal dollar return for its most fierce rivals. The below Fangraphs link alludes to alleged Yankee financial largess and its biceps flex of same. Does this apparent financial superiority make any sense? Well Yankee Stadium can seat many more than Fenway (and probably does on a per game basis), Heck there are 15 million people in N.Y City alone verses how many in Boston? YES network I also suspect has a more lucrative deal than the Sox do with NESN. There are likely more financial anomalies favoring NY due to size/marketing etc. To say that we are toe to toe with those guys financially is IMO decidedly and perhaps nearsightedly Pollyannaish. But if we are on a near equal financial footing, how did the Yankees have an 18 or so year run without any season being losing compared to the Sox having two of the last three in the last-place dumps?? ... And at a time when the Sox had their greatest success in almost a century! Are the Yankees that much smarter, better organized, have better talent evaluators, better developmental people....? Many would say no....and point to the numerous years' lower status of their minor leagues. So then why did they cumulatively beat the heck out of us over the last 18 years?? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-found-another-way-to-outspend-every-other-team/We also have about 1/10th of the player salary liabilities spent beyond 2015 than they do. They have a budget, evidenced by losing Cano and Infante. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 15, 2014 12:20:58 GMT -5
@jessesanchezmlb: Source: Cuban teenage prospect Yoan Moncada has been declared a free agent by MLB. He still must be unblocked by OFAC before he can sign.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 15, 2014 12:33:40 GMT -5
@jessesanchezmlb: Source: Cuban teenage prospect Yoan Moncada has been declared a free agent by MLB. He still must be unblocked by OFAC before he can sign. Is that a rubber stamp type of thing or might it take awhile? |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 15, 2014 12:44:35 GMT -5
I read it could take a while.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 15, 2014 12:53:22 GMT -5
This page gives a little more information on the last step with the OFAC. The part that worries me is the repeated use of the term 'permanent resident'. As Moncada has a Cuban Visa, I wonder if this will be a sticking point for the OFAC. customsesq.com/blog/ofac-cuba-and-baseball/ |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 15, 2014 13:05:17 GMT -5
@jessesanchezmlb: Source: Cuban teenage prospect Yoan Moncada has been declared a free agent by MLB. He still must be unblocked by OFAC before he can sign. Is that a rubber stamp type of thing or might it take awhile? Pedro is right. Doesn't look like any sort of rubber stamp. This is from the FanGraphs article which freddy linked to earlier. Very good read: The "first half" of 2015 takes you right up to the date after which the teams that have gone over their spending limits would be barred from bidding. Lots of forces at work here. Here's a good report, from Ben Badler and BA, about the Office of Foreign Assets Control and their relationship with MLB. A quote from that story: That makes me think that the most interesting part of this is Moncada's tacit approval from the Cuban government to travel freely back and forth to and from the country. The question then is how OFAC views that. I'm inclined to think there will be a bit of pressure brought to bear on that bureaucracy to cut to the chase. My own conjecture is that this may be exactly what Cuba is looking for with this new approach. Stay tuned. Add: Here you go, you're direct entry point into The Matrix |
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Post by redsox4242 on Nov 15, 2014 13:15:59 GMT -5
Man, if we can sign Moncada we would have so much young talent locked up for years to come. Xander, Betts, Moncada, Vazquez. All great young players.
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 15, 2014 13:43:54 GMT -5
Plus a high protected pick in the upcoming draft which Cherington can't miss on.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,607
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2014 14:10:49 GMT -5
Lock him down quick Ben.
Anyone know if he knows Castillo or Cespedes well?
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Post by youngbillrussell on Nov 15, 2014 14:17:32 GMT -5
Nomar- I read that Moncada and Castillo have competed against each other in a skills competition(Racing) Cuba has similar to an All star game.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Nov 15, 2014 14:18:41 GMT -5
Committing $80 million plus to Moncada is a much better use of money than 5 or 6 years and $15 and $20 million per year to Sandoval.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,607
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2014 14:43:33 GMT -5
Committing $80 million plus to Moncada is a much better use of money than 5 or 6 years and $15 and $20 million per year to Sandoval. Exponentially. And it isn't an MLB contract he'd be getting so it's not as big of a bill to swallow IMO. |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Nov 15, 2014 15:00:35 GMT -5
Exponentially. And it isn't an MLB contract he'd be getting so it's not as big of a bill to swallow IMO. I think I read somewhere though that he's angling for a 40 man roster spot. Either way though, half of this expenditure isn't going to count towards the salary cap. And, as Martha Stewart would say, that's a good thing. I don't think any of it counts towards the cap, does it? And thats really the big advantage. Every dollar allocated towards a major league free agent has a fairly significant opportunity cost, because it is a dollar that otherwise could have been allocated towards another player (assuming of course that the team is using the luxury tax threshold as a semi-cap, which I believe they will). Any money spent on Moncada doesn't have that cost. With the draft slot limits and the international free agent limits, there are very few opportunities to acquire talent without a high opportunity cost. This is one of those times and the team should do everything they can to take advantage. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 15, 2014 15:11:47 GMT -5
He can not sign a big league contract so non of it will be in the big league payroll.
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Post by jmei on Nov 15, 2014 15:30:58 GMT -5
Exponentially. And it isn't an MLB contract he'd be getting so it's not as big of a bill to swallow IMO. I think I read somewhere though that he's angling for a 40 man roster spot. Either way though, half of this expenditure isn't going to count towards the salary cap. And, as Martha Stewart would say, that's a good thing. I believe players who sign under the IFA regime are, like Rule 4 draft picks, barred under the new CBA from signing major-league deals that put them on the 40-man roster. And, as mentioned, he would receive a signing bonus that does not count against the luxury-tax threshold (in the same way that other IFA/draft bonuses don't count against the LT threshold). |
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Nov 15, 2014 15:35:35 GMT -5
This is a rare opportunity for the Sox to flex their financial power. Usually if the Sox sign a FA or IFA it counts towards the cap number. The Sox are investing into their future without worrying about future monetary obligation they may be stuck with.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 15, 2014 21:04:44 GMT -5
If the owners meeting with the Levinson bros. and Jon Lester results in his returning to the Fenway mound; if OFAC declares Moncada eligible to be signed and the Sox wrap him up; and, if Cherington can pull off a Heyward trade without sacrificing Betts, Swihart and Xander, this would be one happy fan who considers this an offseason that establishes a promising future for this franchise.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2014 21:46:01 GMT -5
If the Braves got anything close to those guys they should throw a parade. Still wishful thinking everything falls into place like that.
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Post by feez732 on Nov 15, 2014 22:23:32 GMT -5
Just to play devil's advocate, the fact that it's a signing bonus and not a major league contract means that they'll still have to pay him a salary for the years he's under team control. If he truly is a stud, that will be a non-trivial amount (maybe ~$30 million).
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