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Post by burythehammer on Sept 15, 2015 19:05:38 GMT -5
Are we sure he's ready for Winter Ball? I don't think we should be moving this guy up the chain too fast!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 16, 2015 1:40:26 GMT -5
With the debate about his current status and rate of progression, he (as well as everyone else) could use some clarification. Now that he is oriented, comfortable and rust free, winter ball seems lime the ideal time to work with Alex Cora and his crew, and other talented players, to take another step forward in terms of development of both skill set and confidence. Why not?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 16, 2015 6:34:53 GMT -5
With the debate about his current status and rate of progression, he (as well as everyone else) could use some clarification. Now that he is oriented, comfortable and rust free, winter ball seems lime the ideal time to work with Alex Cora and his crew, and other talented players, to take another step forward in terms of development of both skill set and confidence. Why not? Agreed! The only thing that may complicate this is fatigue. I believe he was starting to show that at Greenville over the last few weeks. Otherwise, more reps and some extra work defensively sounds like a recipe for the hopeful "blast off" for Moncada in 2016.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 16, 2015 6:48:50 GMT -5
Add to that the fact that he hadn't played in a year before signing, and his admission that he's not yet 100%, more playing time at Caguas under Cora's tutelage is the right move for his development.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 16, 2015 7:14:01 GMT -5
I think he should be spending some time in the gym during the off season. He obviously needs to put on some weight and improve his athleticism.
(Italics not needed)
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 16, 2015 7:53:29 GMT -5
Yeah, you're right! We have far too many wimpy Cuban guys...(Italics not needed)
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Post by p23w on Sept 16, 2015 8:40:47 GMT -5
Moncada is still growing. Good time for light reps and muscle memory development. Not such a good time for heavy reps and an intense playing schedule. He will progress as far as AA (my hope) in 2016. Important that he remain injury free, if he is to maximize his development. At AA and above we should be able to get a more clear view of Yoan's baseball acumen. Hopefully language is not an issue. I have visions of Gold dust twins Andrew and Yoan a-la Freedy and Jim. The near term future is very bright indeed.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2015 9:03:14 GMT -5
I can't tell who is kidding and who isn't on this (other than the "Moncada needs to hit the gym" bit - if you can't tell that's a joke, may I direct you to Google Image Search...), but for whatever it's worth, Moncada going to Puerto Rico does not imply that he's going to play every single day, for those worried about burning him out. There is a little bit of rotation mixed in (consider that Caguas played 39 regular season games last year and only four guys got over 30 games played). And there are plenty of off days: To play Caguas's 51 games including playoffs last season, it took 80 days. Much different grind than minor league ball in the U.S., where Greenville played its final 51 games over 55 days. Caguas never played more than six days in a row, and only then, it was usually (and perhaps always) because of a rescheduled game that'd been rained out.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 16, 2015 10:24:06 GMT -5
And during tbat short seaso. In a familiar climate with bi-lingual players and staff, we can be fairly certain he will neither be pushed nor coddled in ways that will hurt his development. Everyone in the Sox system will know why he is there, and it's not to burn out.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Sept 16, 2015 10:32:09 GMT -5
Hopefully it will be a great opportunity for another coaching staff to get their hands on him and work on his defense, maybe also get some reps at 3B.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 16, 2015 11:01:00 GMT -5
I can't tell who is kidding and who isn't on this (other than the "Moncada needs to hit the gym" bit - if you can't tell that's a joke, may I direct you to Google Image Search...), but for whatever it's worth, Moncada going to Puerto Rico does not imply that he's going to play every single day, for those worried about burning him out. There is a little bit of rotation mixed in (consider that Caguas played 39 regular season games last year and only four guys got over 30 games played). And there are plenty of off days: To play Caguas's 51 games including playoffs last season, it took 80 days. Much different grind than minor league ball in the U.S., where Greenville played its final 51 games over 55 days. Caguas never played more than six days in a row, and only then, it was usually (and perhaps always) because of a rescheduled game that'd been rained out. Plus a lot of the grind of minor league seasons comes from the ridiculous travel of 6+ hour bus rides after a night game. I think the longest you'd drive in Puerto Rico is San Juan to Mayaguez, and that's about 2.5 hours. Playing baseball is the fun part ... hanging out in Puerto Rico and playing baseball is probably Moncada's idea of a good time.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 16, 2015 13:01:28 GMT -5
The best thing about this move is Alex Cora. Think about all the implications from that move. Former infielder, positive role model, a player who was always intended to go into player development and coaching. Perfect choice. Everything I see the Redsox do is to be careful with his development. The XST time, spending the rest of the year in Greenville, now tutelege in a near ideal environment for him. Lot's of teams would have him in at least Salem by now and maybe even Portland.
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Post by azblue on Sept 16, 2015 13:54:51 GMT -5
My guess is that Moncada will begin the transition to third base with Cora's help. The Sox do not like to tinker with someone's hitting or pitching style or change a fielding position in a player's first year in the minors.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 16, 2015 14:05:52 GMT -5
My guess is that Moncada will begin the transition to third base with Cora's help. The Sox do not like to tinker with someone's hitting or pitching style or change a fielding position in a player's first year in the minors. I wouldn't assume he's moving to third. If you look at the Fall Instructs rosters, he's one of two second basemen going, the other being Chad De La Guerra. You'd think if he were going to move this offseason, they'd start the process there, and I'd assume they'd bring in another second baseman (like Andy Perez) just to fill out the numbers, and perhaps not bring over a DSL third baseman in Stanley Espinal if Moncada and Chavis were going to split the 3B reps. I get the feeling that discussions on his future position will start next spring.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2015 22:17:50 GMT -5
If you want to compare him to Billy Hamilton, you may want to note that Billy Hamilton is in the majors and Moncada was in Greenville. Lot's of guys steal bases well in the Sally. When Billy Hamilton was in A ball he stole 104 bases and then followed that up with 155 the next year and 103 the next year. Compare that with Moncada's 49. As I noted earlier, others even stole similar amounts this year in the Sally. It's a matter of perspective isn't it.OK, you're right, the valid comparison is Moncada at age 20 in low-A (Midwest league) versus Hamilton in low-A at the same age. And Moncada was only 15% better ([SB - 2 * CS]/PA). Or 13% if you count times on 1B (1B + UBB + HBP). Yeah, and the "valid perspectives" include: 1) Totals of anything are meaningless unless adjusted for time frames and opportunities. You can tell me how many women you've slept with and say that it's more than Wilt Chamberlain's 5, and hope we don't realize that you're putting your lifetime number against one of Wilt's afternoons. But we're not likely to buy it. 2) Stolen base totals are meaningless unless caught-stealings are factored in. If Hamilton had been caught 55 times when he stole 104 bases, he would have hurt the team. You can claim to have been a great bank-robber because you robbed three banks, but if we know you got caught four times and served 40 years in jail, we're not buying that, either. Oh, and that 15% better includes the first stretch of games where Moncada very clearly was barely trying to steal bases at all. SB attempts per times on 1B: .699, Hamilton at age 20 .167, Moncada before ASB .585, Moncada after ASB A "valid perspective" mandates that we ignore his SB record from before the ASB because he was barely trying. Once he started trying, he was 33% better at age 20 at stealing bases successfully than Billy Hamilton had been.This should make you feel better. Realizing that you have grossly underestimated just how mind-bogglingly good Moncada was at stealing bases should make you feel better. (Having been wrong and losing an argument should not make you feel worse, and certainly not make you feel so much worse that you refuse to acknowledge the truth.)
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 17, 2015 0:25:11 GMT -5
Eric, I never said Moncada was bad at stealing bases. I said it was his strongest tool essentially, but I will add for clarity that is difficult to really compare him to Hamilton who stole twice as many bases at age 20 and then 3 times as much the next year. If Hamilton didn't have such an aggresive approach would he have stolen bases at a higher percentage? I would say almost definitely. I also don't see how we can just say "Moncada wasn't trying" earlier. I agree that there was an obvious shift in emphasis but he wasn't hitting earlier either. We can't just say, "those first 25 games don't count" and while most other players took their lumps at the beginnig of the year Moncada was treated with special caution, probably for a good reason.
We keep giving him excuses. The XST. The data of his first 25 games as irrelevant. I get that the subsequent games were a lot more relevant but all his games were statistically significant. We can't just cherry pick every player's best 200 AB. We appear to be doing at least some statistical gymnastics to elevate him to where we expected him to be. I'm not buying that the rust of all that time off was the primary reason he was in XST and started off slow. It was more LIKELY to me that it was language related, culture related and he just was not ready for Greenville yet. Most players take several months off in the winter. Even a year of extra time is not that big a deal. Did Jose Abreu need extra time? Puig and many others missed similar amounts and stepped right in and hit.
I'm not dumping on Moncada, particularly on his base stealing ability, his strongest tool. It still is not earth shattering, top prospect in baseball performance. Let's say statistically he's the best stolen base guy in the minors. Even if he was, there were still 5 guys in the Sally alone with at least 46 stolen bases, and Moncada had 49. Jorge Mateo had 71 and Fargas 59. And Wes Rogers stole 46 bases and was caught only 4 times. 5 guys were all over 46 SB and that's just the Sally. Even in Moncada's best tool, he was the best base stealer in his league but his overall data doesn't elevate him to be a top 5 prospect in baseball. If he gets there this year it will be because of scout evaluations and the hype, less than his performance level.
I don't refuse to admit things when I'm wrong, and often have many times in the past. I was wrong apparently on Cechinni. I thought Barnes would do better this year as a reliever...etc. Eric, even in your own post you admit the perspective was incorrect. You were comparing a guy in the majors with a guy in Greenville. I would call that not even close. I feel absolutely comfortable with my analysis on Moncada. He's still my #3 prospect,
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 17, 2015 1:18:47 GMT -5
This may sound stupid amidst the depth of your differing analyses of this situation, but the Sox #1,2,3,4,5,7,8 appear to be nearly inter-changeable at this point, and might well change places a couple of times before they start shining in the Show. Imagine that! Awesome! Moncada is a top prospect, perhaps 1-1 in the draft; and he startimg to perform like the star he might become after getting into playing shape. In terms of whether he is or will become better, more valuable than Devers or Benitendi or Margot or Guerra or Espinoza or Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brockstar, Castillo, Swihart, Vasquez, EdRod, Johnson, Owens (that's 16 young and remarkable talents, count 'em, and there are more) is fast becoming an interesting but biased exercise in sophistry at this point.
I learn so much from you guys, but it seems we are all looking closely at different facets of the same rare stones. While I am not capable of deciding who should be #1 or 2 this rating period, i do know the next several "years of the kids" will be exciting and rewarding, whomever gets the most kudos now.
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Post by SALNotes on Sept 19, 2015 17:01:21 GMT -5
I saw Moncada play defense live 5 times this yr and he looked a little more comfortable each time but I'm still not convinced he's a 2nd Baseman. He's still fielding everything off to the side and as a result he kicked a lot of easy ones.
I think in 3 years he's a right fielder and a good one.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 19, 2015 20:38:13 GMT -5
I still wish they'd try him at SS. His long-term future may not be there, and I also get the sense that he's ticketed for RF/CF, but he has the arm. It's really probably totally unreasonable, but a SS with his offensive skills would be unreal. His arm seems totally wasted at 2b, and his speed/range wasted at third. The scouting may say he's not comfortable at short, and Bogaerts probably has it locked down for four more years at least, but Bogey's improvement from last year is proof that hard work at a position (especially by a very talented, athletic player) can yield huge dividends. And if Moncada put up a line in MLB similar to his half-season at Greenville (post-adjustment), that's a .300/.400/.500 SS who steals 50-70 bases a year or more. If he played average defense, he'd be one of the top-5 most valuable players in baseball. And I wouldn't even consider it, except I'm not sure Bogaerts signs long-term. Moncada would be a tremendous back-up plan, maybe even moving Bogaerts to third where his arm is more than sufficient and range would be above-average.
Yes, I know it's a pipe dream. I'd still like to see them try it.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 19, 2015 20:53:41 GMT -5
This may sound stupid amidst the depth of your differing analyses of this situation, but the Sox #1,2,3,4,5,7,8 appear to be nearly inter-changeable at this point, and might well change places a couple of times before they start shining in the Show. Imagine that! Awesome! Moncada is a top prospect, perhaps 1-1 in the draft; and he startimg to perform like the star he might become after getting into playing shape. In terms of whether he is or will become better, more valuable than Devers or Benitendi or Margot or Guerra or Espinoza or Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brockstar, Castillo, Swihart, Vasquez, EdRod, Johnson, Owens (that's 16 young and remarkable talents, count 'em, and there are more) is fast becoming an interesting but biased exercise in sophistry at this point. I learn so much from you guys, but it seems we are all looking closely at different facets of the same rare stones. While I am not capable of deciding who should be #1 or 2 this rating period, i do know the next several "years of the kids" will be exciting and rewarding, whomever gets the most kudos now. I personally wouldn't go so far as to say 1-8 are interchangeable, but in terms of ceiling, it really does look like Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi, Devers, and Margot (maybe) have perennial All-Star potential. And Guerra may very well if he hits anything like he did this year, and continues to flash the plus-plus glove. Any one of those six might reasonably be the highest-ceiling prospect in a third or more of MLB teams' minor league systems, if not the top prospect (given high risk for the low-A players). Certainly, Kopech has also shown himself to be a reasonable #2-SP ceiling player, so he's just outside of that group. And while Chavis had a tough year contact-wise, he was very young for the league and still piled up the XBHs. The Sox have a remarkably deep system coupled with some incredibly high-ceiling talent that, itself, is deep as a group. So yeah, looking at Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, E Rodriguez, JBJ, Vazquez, Owens, Johnson, Barnes (I hold out hope), Holt, and the aforementioned group...the next 3-4 years are going to be ridiculously fun to watch. Not to mention...barring some bizarre signing this winter, like Zimmerman, they'll have a draft pick probably in the 11-14 range, and a quality second-rounder.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2015 21:53:59 GMT -5
I don't think Moncada has the hands/footwork for shortstop. It's not just about raw athletic tools (range, arm, etc.), but also about whether he can develop the fine motor skills necessary to play a position that requires very fast hands and feet. Those are his weak points now at 2B, and I'm skeptical that he'll improve enough in those areas to make it worth even considering moving him to shortstop. There are plenty of guys who had the raw athletic tools for shortstop but who could never development the necessary skills to stick there long-term (B.J. Upton, Billy Hamilton, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Jones, etc.).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2015 22:18:03 GMT -5
I don't think Moncada has the hands/footwork for shortstop. It's not just about raw athletic tools (range, arm, etc.), but also about whether he can develop the fine motor skills necessary to play a position that requires very fast hands and feet. Those are his weak points now at 2B, and I'm skeptical that he'll improve enough in those areas to make it worth even considering moving him to shortstop. There are plenty of guys who had the raw athletic tools for shortstop but who could never development the necessary skills to stick there long-term (B.J. Upton, Billy Hamilton, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Jones, etc.). He has outgrown the position. People always draw the line according to height, but in this case he's just too filled out and he's not even 21. I think we could try him at 3B but he looks like someone who could be a good COF to me.
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Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2015 22:44:46 GMT -5
If the position wasn't so stocked in the system, I'd suggest CF for Moncada. It looks like there or RF to me, and I think he can be a really good defender at either of those spots.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 20, 2015 1:19:07 GMT -5
Wonderful problems
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 20, 2015 8:04:35 GMT -5
I don't think Moncada has the hands/footwork for shortstop. It's not just about raw athletic tools (range, arm, etc.), but also about whether he can develop the fine motor skills necessary to play a position that requires very fast hands and feet. Those are his weak points now at 2B, and I'm skeptical that he'll improve enough in those areas to make it worth even considering moving him to shortstop. There are plenty of guys who had the raw athletic tools for shortstop but who could never development the necessary skills to stick there long-term (B.J. Upton, Billy Hamilton, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Jones, etc.). I'd be shocked if the Sox moved him to shortstop. Generally, the Sox have always kept guys at short unless they were sure it wouldn't work, then once they moved them, they never went back. Guys like Middlebrooks, Chavis, etc came into the system and got immediately moved, someone like Pedroia was a SS for a while, then got moved, and not one of them moved back. Now, as for whether he'll stick at 2nd or not, I can't say specifically having never seen him in person. But I will say that almost everyone (including me!) thought Bogaerts lacked the footwork and elite athleticism to play shortstop when he was in A-ball, so some humility in projecting these guys is always in order.
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