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6/1-6/4 Red Sox vs. Twins Series Thread
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 2, 2015 20:52:07 GMT -5
Scott Lauber @scottlauber 3m3 minutes ago
Robbie Ross Jr. will be called up as #RedSox' 26th man for doubleheader tomorrow
Tim Britton @timbritton 4m4 minutes ago
Farrell said decision for 9th inning was easy, since Buchholz has been a little under the weather. "An outstanding performance by Clay."
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Post by ethanbein on Jun 2, 2015 20:53:04 GMT -5
And Farrell cites 4th time through the order as a reason for taking out Clay. Maybe he can stay a little longer.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2015 20:57:58 GMT -5
Don't look at the home plate ump like that Xander, ask for an appeal instead! Not enough hitters do it. What was the context of this? Wasn't watching. FWIW, hitters can't appeal check swing calls. |
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 2, 2015 21:01:28 GMT -5
4th time through the order.
Clay not feeling well.
One run game.
Koji rested and ready to go.
You have to bend over backwards while jumping through hoops to give the manager grief tonight.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 2, 2015 21:13:51 GMT -5
Great game pitched by buchholz. Really finishing off his pitches tonight.
Seems like he is throwing more fastballs early in the counts than earlier in the year and tonight the secondary pitches were not getting hit.
We could not ask for anything more from a starting pitcher than what buchholz gave us tonight. Congrats!
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 2, 2015 21:14:06 GMT -5
Don't look at the home plate ump like that Xander, ask for an appeal instead! Not enough hitters do it. What was the context of this? Wasn't watching. FWIW, hitters can't appeal check swing calls. Yes, strike 2 called on a not-quite-checked swing. Perhaps the rules don't foresee the hitter asking for an appeal, but I always nod in approval whenever I see a guy like Miguel Cabrera immediately point to the 1B ump on a checked swing. Of course, my opinion is that the HP ump should never under any circumstances make these calls and the rules should be changed accordingly. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 2, 2015 22:25:20 GMT -5
After tonight's game, Clay Buchholz has a 2.92 FIP, which ranks amongst the top 15 qualified starting pitchers in the league, between Dallas Keuchal and Matt Harvey. He's having a really, really good season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 2, 2015 22:34:07 GMT -5
Buchholz's mean ERA is 3.82, but the median (average start) is 2.45.
His FIP is 2.92, but the median is 1.97.
His xFIP is 3.10, with a 3.33 median. I won't know SIERA until tomorrow.
I'd love to do a study someday that included the medians for predicting the rest of the season, at various points. I last looked at the medians versus the means (without posting about it) for the staff after 5 starts, and the one thing that definitely seems to be true is that median ERA early in the season matches the advanced metrics much better that mean, and is hence more predictive than it.
This game also brought Clay's WPA from -.02 to a team-leading 0.53. But ERod can get that lead back tomorrow, as he's at 0.45.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jun 2, 2015 22:36:14 GMT -5
Sensational job by Buchholz. It would be really nice if the offense could start producing. That's the "fix" to this team that is going to make the difference between it being a playoff team and a failed season.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 2, 2015 23:05:06 GMT -5
After all the angst, Clay has risen to the task and has remained strong for an encouraging stretch. He looks like the Ace. Can't wait to see what EdRod and Porcello and the offense do after this emotionally liberating W at home. They gotta be feeling cautiously confident, and good about each other's abilities to grind out wins. Two more tomorrow could change everything. That concept alone sure beats the recent tsunami of negativity. Speaking as a fan: Go Sox
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 2, 2015 23:10:59 GMT -5
ya mean if we put them all on Prozac they will start to hit?
can't be that simple. (Let Lovullo make out the lineup card.)
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Jun 2, 2015 23:16:35 GMT -5
Important day for the offense tomorrow. Gets to face two very hittable pitchers. Also important for Porcello, because he hasn't pitched well and needs to right the ship.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 3, 2015 0:10:27 GMT -5
Great and badly needed pitching performance by Buchholz tonight. When he is good, he can be very, very good. It's nice to see a Red Sox starter with an ERA below 4. I don't know that any other starter other than Rodriguez is capable of doing that.
With the Sox offense as it is, it seems a shutout is about the only way to win, and voila, Buchholz, with help from Uehara, came up with one.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 3, 2015 0:33:39 GMT -5
There have been some good pitching performances over the last few weeks, but not a lot in the way of offense to back them up. Kelly was fine two nights ago, though he blows hot and cold. Buchholz, on the other hand, has definitely found a groove.
Anyway, I believe it's too early to project final numbers, and ERA isn't the best one in any case. After one start, it's certainly too early to project Rodriguez, as good as he looked.
As a moderator, I often watch posters blow hot and cold themselves when a player doesn't quite live up to expectations start to start. That's not good for them, or the player's status, I think.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 3, 2015 1:21:05 GMT -5
Is there any question that Clay Buchholz is good enough (if he stays healthy, which is admittedly a decent-sized if) to start game 1 of a post-season series? I don't think there's any doubt of that.
Right now, though, there's no one you'd be happy to see starting game 2. The top two candidates may well be pitching tomorrow.
Porcello was definitely supposed to be that guy, of course. If he can pitch up to that, there's every reason to think that they can construct a good 3 through 5 (plus long man) from among ERod, Miley, Kelly, Wright, and Johnson.
Then you just have to deal with Hanley, Ortiz, and Sandoval being -2.51 wins below average offensively (including clutch) in just a little over a quarter of a season. Based on their last three years, the expectation would be +2.14.
Think about that. Despite everything else that's gone wrong -- the catcher injuries, the SP struggles, the black hole in RF, Hanley's defense (itself already worth more than a win), Napoli's prolonged slump, Pedroia's fielding lapses, the thinness of the pen beyond Koji and Taz, Farrell's weakness as a tactician -- had the heart of the order simply hit as expected, we'd be half a game up on the Yankees.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jun 3, 2015 1:39:38 GMT -5
Heart of the order: Papi, Hanley, Panda, Napoli. There is no way tbe 3 Amigos and Nap remain dormant. Simple regression demands they start hitting well; and that Porcellio and Miley find their way soon. We can hope tbe floodgates are creaking open, prozac or not.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 3, 2015 1:54:09 GMT -5
Hanley is hitting .133 / .167 / .200 (with 3 GDP, and 1 of his 2 BB was an IBB) in 48 PA with Leverage Index > 1.35.
In 38 PA with LI of 0.3 or less, he's hit .406 / .500 / 1.031, including 3/7, 2 BB, 3 HR with LI less than 0.05.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 3, 2015 7:32:00 GMT -5
I don't know why I am reading that the Sox hitters notice the umpires are calling the low strike and the zone as a whole is bigger. But in the offseason one of the reasons the FO picked these pitchers Porcello and Miley is because they throw on the lower half of the strike zone. So the hitters are caught off guard someone should of told them. Or maybe there slow to adjust ,possibly to stubborn to adjust. If this is true it's surprising and disappointing this offense is always producing.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 3, 2015 7:39:26 GMT -5
Buchholz's mean ERA is 3.82, but the median (average start) is 2.45. His FIP is 2.92, but the median is 1.97. His xFIP is 3.10, with a 3.33 median. I won't know SIERA until tomorrow. I'd love to do a study someday that included the medians for predicting the rest of the season, at various points. I last looked at the medians versus the means (without posting about it) for the staff after 5 starts, and the one thing that definitely seems to be true is that median ERA early in the season matches the advanced metrics much better that mean, and is hence more predictive than it. This game also brought Clay's WPA from -.02 to a team-leading 0.53. But ERod can get that lead back tomorrow, as he's at 0.45. Not so much arguing the point, but isn't the mean ERA the average, whereas the median is just the middle? |
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Post by thursty on Jun 3, 2015 8:00:04 GMT -5
I kept my mouth shut when there was early chatter on this board that the Sox had no pitching prospects to speak of, and that Rodriguez might be a bottom of the rotation guy at best. For now I'll just say that this is a 22 year old with dynamite stuff he can actually command. We really have no idea how good he might eventually be, so we might hold off on hard and fast projections. There isn't an unlimited supply of crow for all of us to chow down on. Says the one who described Bryce Harper as no more than a mid-level prospect. Oops |
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Post by okin15 on Jun 3, 2015 8:06:53 GMT -5
Both are a type of average. In certain circumstances, one tells us more than another, especially if there is an outlier which drags the mean high (or low).
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 3, 2015 8:32:00 GMT -5
I kept my mouth shut when there was early chatter on this board that the Sox had no pitching prospects to speak of, and that Rodriguez might be a bottom of the rotation guy at best. For now I'll just say that this is a 22 year old with dynamite stuff he can actually command. We really have no idea how good he might eventually be, so we might hold off on hard and fast projections. There isn't an unlimited supply of crow for all of us to chow down on. Says the one who described Bryce Harper as no more than a mid-level prospect. Oops Dig it up plesase... |
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2015 8:45:33 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 3s3 seconds ago
Brian Johnson's been scratched from his start for the PawSox, replaced by Miguel Celestino. Appears a callup for Johnson may be imminent.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 3, 2015 8:49:16 GMT -5
Has to be for Wright tomorrow right?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 3, 2015 8:50:23 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 42s43 seconds ago
Clarification: Brian Johnson NOT getting called up.skipped due to workload.
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