SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
|
Post by libertine on Jul 17, 2015 7:57:39 GMT -5
Looking forward to 2016, the infield has Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Sandoval; Vazquez and Hanigan are the catchers; Ortiz is the DH, and Betts is in CF or RF. And your backup MI can double as a starting corner OF. That leaves 5 position player roles that are ostensibly up in the air. But two of those, I believe, are no-brainers. Hanley has to be the 1B, and JBJ has to be given a shot in the OF, based on what he's done in AAA and his defense. That leaves three roster spots. Each has an internal option which may not be up to snuff. They need a LH hitting corner OF who can start if Bradley washes out, and ideally challenge Holt for a starting job. Can Nava still be that guy? It's unclear, and if he can't, they need to get someone. They need a RH platoon partner for that guy. I think it's likely that Rusney Castillo would be OK in that role, but it's possible that he could benefit from some more AAA time. In which case, they need to get someone here, as well. And they need a RH hitting 1B to platoon with Papi (with Hanley moving to DH). In theory, Craig could be that guy, but it doesn't seem likely that he'd be good at the job. Of course, as soon as it seems we're out of it this year (and maybe before), you want to start getting answers to all of these things -- the three possible vacancies and the two experiments you're pretty much committed to. Well I hope we get a really good player in exchange for Swihart. Because there is no reason, based on what he's done in the bigs so far, he should finish this season in AAA never mind having him return there next year.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 10:25:03 GMT -5
Looking forward to 2016, the infield has Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Sandoval; Vazquez and Hanigan are the catchers; Ortiz is the DH, and Betts is in CF or RF. And your backup MI can double as a starting corner OF. That leaves 5 position player roles that are ostensibly up in the air. But two of those, I believe, are no-brainers. Hanley has to be the 1B, and JBJ has to be given a shot in the OF, based on what he's done in AAA and his defense. That leaves three roster spots. Each has an internal option which may not be up to snuff. They need a LH hitting corner OF who can start if Bradley washes out, and ideally challenge Holt for a starting job. Can Nava still be that guy? It's unclear, and if he can't, they need to get someone. They need a RH platoon partner for that guy. I think it's likely that Rusney Castillo would be OK in that role, but it's possible that he could benefit from some more AAA time. In which case, they need to get someone here, as well. And they need a RH hitting 1B to platoon with Papi (with Hanley moving to DH). In theory, Craig could be that guy, but it doesn't seem likely that he'd be good at the job. Of course, as soon as it seems we're out of it this year (and maybe before), you want to start getting answers to all of these things -- the three possible vacancies and the two experiments you're pretty much committed to. Well I hope we get a really good player in exchange for Swihart. Because there is no reason, based on what he's done in the bigs so far, he should finish this season in AAA never mind having him return there next year. What? He was below replacement level. Yes, he hit .294 / .345 / .392 from June 6 to June 30, but that was driven by a .385 BABIP; take away just two hits, which seems right based on his PBP (my metric says he had 4 lucky hits, BTW), and it's .255 / .309 / .353, which is below average fo MLB catchers, even including the backups. He was below average pitch-framing, ranking 26th of 36 MLB pitchers with 2000 or more framing chances. Then there's this, noisy as it is: Pitcher Hanigan Swihart Porcello 3.60 5.63 Masterson 5.57 7.71 Kelly, J 4.94 5.51 Miley, W 5.16 4.30 He remains a great prospect, but he played like a guy who had 38 games of AAA experience. He likely needs 100 more, minimum.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 17, 2015 16:39:50 GMT -5
With catcher and shortstop if it is a choice between defense and hitting, I always go with defense unless, of course, the hitter is exceptional. However, if he isn't good defensively then he should be moved to another position.
Swihart was hitting pretty well when he got hurt. He was showing every sign of becoming a good offensive contributor. Whether he can be more than that is yet to be determined. However, it was obvious to me, only listening to games on the radio, that Swihart was not a "leader" catcher. He seldom went to the mound when pitchers were struggling. I also should note that the pitching coach and manager also seldom go to the mound when pitchers are struggling. Most of the time, when they do, the damage is done. He's very young to be catching in the major leagues and I am sure it is very hard to try to control these older, more experienced, pitchers.
Hanigan is much more aggressive with the pitchers. He takes charge and the results show it. I watched the last game Rodriguez pitched and Hanigan's actions with him were very visible. At one point he called time to change the sign and he signaled to Rodriguez to trust him. It worked.
The Sox will have to make some tough decisions eventually, but until Vazquez demonstrates he is fully recovered, they need to keep both Hanigan and Swihart.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,507
|
Post by nomar on Jul 17, 2015 16:45:21 GMT -5
Well I hope we get a really good player in exchange for Swihart. Because there is no reason, based on what he's done in the bigs so far, he should finish this season in AAA never mind having him return there next year. What? He was below replacement level. Yes, he hit .294 / .345 / .392 from June 6 to June 30, but that was driven by a .385 BABIP; take away just two hits, which seems right based on his PBP (my metric says he had 4 lucky hits, BTW), and it's .255 / .309 / .353, which is below average fo MLB catchers, even including the backups. He was below average pitch-framing, ranking 26th of 36 MLB pitchers with 2000 or more framing chances. Then there's this, noisy as it is: Pitcher Hanigan Swihart Porcello 3.60 5.63 Masterson 5.57 7.71 Kelly, J 4.94 5.51 Miley, W 5.16 4.30 He remains a great prospect, but he played like a guy who had 38 games of AAA experience. He likely needs 100 more, minimum. I would put next to no stick in those catcher ERAs. Porcello has been awful since late April, which is when Hanigan went down. The rest of the differences are negligible.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jul 17, 2015 17:19:48 GMT -5
I don't think it's right to compare leadership abilities between Swiahrt and Hannigan. Swihart was thrown to the fire as a 23 year old while Hannigan has 10+ years in him. Most reports have Swiharts makeup off the charts I don't have any doubt he'll get to that level handling a staff.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 17, 2015 18:15:04 GMT -5
I didn't say that he wouldn't get to that level, just that he's not there now. And I wasn't saying he should be. He's been rushed and, all things considered, he's done pretty well.
I have previously written that I don't like the idea of sending him back to Pawtucket. I think he can learn a lot more in the majors - especially with Hanigan working with him - and if the Sox are not in contention, then he should be doing at least half the catching. He can work on his pitching framing just as easily in the majors as in the minors and in the majors he gets to work with major league pitchers - and umpires.
|
|
|
Post by arzjake on Jul 17, 2015 18:25:23 GMT -5
Catcher is a defense first position. Vazquez was and is that guy.
If Swihart is going to stick in Boston, give him a first baseman's mitt at Triple AAA and get ready for 16.
If not. I deal him for an Ace.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jul 17, 2015 20:25:31 GMT -5
The sox are going to need to trade for some pitching. Hopefully would be a long term type guy just coming up. We have so many riches at multiple positions in our system, they have to look to move guys like JBJ, Margot, Marco, Lin, etc. also would have to throw in some lower level guys, but not future stars like Moncada hopefully.
|
|
|
Post by chud on Jul 18, 2015 10:08:34 GMT -5
Yeah, if the goal is to trade for good, young, MLB pitching (great goal by the way) that will cost us for sure if it's even a possibility...the key for any organization is to know your own prospects better than any other team knows them w/out looking through rose colored glasses...that way you know who to keep and who to potentially trade (the Braves had this down to a science at one point)...and ultimately, when to trade those prospects you've identified as trade chips as if you hold them too long they could be exposed and their value goes down somewhat to a ton...Perfect case is Checchini, he may have a resurgence of course but it certainly seems like he hit his peak as a trade chip and has gone back the other way...but then the Sox may have identified him as a keeper too and thus allowed him to potentially surpass the risk/reward on him as a player for the team vs. his value 2 years ago as a trade chip...either way, the Sox have a lot of interchangeable pieces in the minors and they need to make the absolute right decisions on who to keep, who to trade, and then to trade them prior to losing value.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 18, 2015 11:36:17 GMT -5
The sox are going to need to trade for some pitching. Hopefully would be a long term type guy just coming up. We have so many riches at multiple positions in our system, they have to look to move guys like JBJ, Margot, Marco, Lin, etc. also would have to throw in some lower level guys, but not future stars like Moncada hopefully. There really doesn't seem to be any indication that this type of trade is in BC's DNA. I really wouldn't hold my breath. It would have to include Margot, Swihart, or, god forbid Devers or Moncada, to get the type of pitcher we need to improve the staff. I don't see him doing it.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Jul 18, 2015 11:48:13 GMT -5
I think it is enormously difficult to project the value of a prospect beyond the fairly obvious. The players who succeed more often than not do so because of their own drive and their ability to learn. Someone wrote that Mookie Betts was really good at learning baseball. I think most exceptional players - like most people who are exceptional at anything - have internal drive and focus. They learn quickly and solve problems.
Right now the player I think is really interesting is Jackie Bradley. He has come quite a way from where he was a year ago. He had a huge problem with his swing and he seems to corrected a lot of the problem. I think he still has a chance of being a major league regular, maybe even an exceptional one. If I were the GM of another team talking trades with the Sox, he would be high on my list of targets.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 18, 2015 12:22:58 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Jul 18, 2015 19:20:28 GMT -5
I still think the sox are looking toward another shot at a prospect like Rodriguez and not at established stars.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 18, 2015 23:59:14 GMT -5
I still think the sox are looking toward another shot at a prospect like Rodriguez and not at established stars. They don't have a trade chip like Andrew Miller that would bring back somebody like Rodriguez. I think all the talk about scouting Cueto or dealing for Hamels is an acknowledgement that the Sox rotation is lacking top-of-the-rotation arms. The Red Sox would be absolutely foolish to deal for Cueto, but he would be a very realistic target to sign in a deal. To me, it's preferable to giving up talent like Owens and Margot/Devers plus others. My gut feeling is that the Sox would have a real shot at Cueto through free agency. He'll be dealt soon and will most likely not sign with the team he's dealt to. The Yankees and Dodgers are always the first candidates looked at to acquire a guy like Cueto but you have to figure that the Yanks will be spending the money to sign a front-line starter that they need, but with Tanaka and Pinieda already in the rotation and Sabathia struggling, I would think David Price would be their main target, while I think the Dodgers will be spending their money trying to retain Zack Greinke. So that leaves the Sox as a likely suitor. I would think he'd be preferable, not having to give up a draft pick for him, than going after Zimmerman and surrendering a pick, even if it's a second rounder. Other than a move like that, the Sox desire to add a quality starter is unlikely. Perhaps Quintana from Chicago would be available for offense, but the Sox need somebody that can be the ace, somebody they can stack with Buchholz and E-Rod at some point next season going into a playoff series. They certainly can't do it with Porcello in mind.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,842
|
Post by wcp3 on Jul 19, 2015 8:25:55 GMT -5
Honestly, they have a nice young core in Eduardo, Xander, and Mookie - they just need to be patient and surround them with the right complementary players. The complementary players this year were a disaster, so the young guys didn't have the time to grow into their roles.
I don't think the Sox are that far away from being a playoff team. Just need that young core to be more consistent and some vets who aren't absolute garbage.
(A new manager could help, too.)
|
|
|
Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Jul 19, 2015 9:03:05 GMT -5
Fixing the Red Sox (as in to contend in 2015) is quite frankly not possible at this point - but a lot can be done to augment the long term core in the next two weeks. I'm not going to talk about specific players to deal for (those are in the trade proposal threads), but quite simply list those players in the organization that should be moved for present options.
First is that Victorino and DeAza need to be removed so that Jackie Bradley Jr can get the next two months proving that he can or cannot be the RF of the future in Boston. With his .317/.393/.474/.867 line in Pawtucket, I think he's earned that chance. Napoli doesn't have to be DFA'ed in my opinion, just shown the bench and we let Holt play 1b consistently (but of course if someone will give you anything of value for Napoli, you take it). I wouldn't hate trying Hanley at 1b either and bringing up Castillo too.
The rotation NEEDS to be comprised of Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson and Owens for the rest of the year, assuming they're still in the organization. Miley I don't think will ever be more than a 4th or 5th starter, but he is still younger than 30, durable, and not really that expensive - Porcello needs to be fixed and that will only happen in the majors.
The Sandy Leon experience needs to come to a close once Swihart is off the DL. Swihart catches Rodriguez, Johnson and Owens with whom he has a rapport (and is seen as a leader having caught them in the minors) while Hanigan gets to try and fix Porcello and Miley's starts can be split on matchups. We all know there is probably no chance that Buchholz is back prior to September, and since we missed whatever opportunity there was to trade "good Buchholz" for value with Leon, whatever percentage chance of that there was is out the window now. As such, Leon has only negative value on this team in taking development time away from Swihart.
We certainly have players that I think could fetch a "Rodriguez" type return, so long as we think of that as the top 60ish prospect he came into last year as, not the guy who is presently our best pitcher. Examples of players that might net us that type of return this year are Tazawa, Uehara and Holt. I'm not giving any of them away, for sure, but if you can get a top 50 or better prospect for those guys, you do it.
Rest of the season (ideally) looks like this: Betts - cf; Pedroia - 2b; Bogaerts - ss; Ortiz - dh; Ramirez - lf (or 1b); Sandoval - 3b; Holt 1b (or Castillo in LF); Bradley Jr - rf. The roation goes Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson, Miley, Owens.
The only untouchables in the system in AAA or above are Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart and Rodriguez. Bradley Jr, Owens, Johnson, Vazquez, and all of our legitimate prospects should be untouchable UNLESS you're getting young, cost controlled, effective starting pitching or a long term 1b option.
|
|
|
Post by chud on Jul 19, 2015 10:14:20 GMT -5
Honestly, they have a nice young core in Eduardo, Xander, and Mookie - they just need to be patient and surround them with the right complementary players. The complementary players this year were a disaster, so the young guys didn't have the time to grow into their roles. Agreed, patience is the key! The Sox have good, young pieces at the MLB level and seemingly below...I've stated before the cyclical nature of winning is unavoidable and if you want to build a sustainable winning organization (7-10 years of being in contention) it needs to be done w/ patience where a player development process is in place that provides talent, and a MLB evaluation process that can identify MLB complementary talent to surround the younger guys. It also depends upon an acceptance of the "winning cycle" and not to do anything to screw with it that might push that cycle off longer... The Sox have pieces to sell right now that most likely won't be of as much value to the team when the next winning cycle comes up and might provide a return of talent back to the organization at some varying level (i.e. Koji, Nava, De Aza...it hurts not to have Buchholz in here...)...And some pieces to shed to allow for the future development of some of the younger players who still need time at the MLB level to assess their ability to help the team next year and beyond (i.e. Napoli, Victorino, Masterson...) Hopefully we can accomplish a little or a lot of both prior to the trade deadline to evaluate the Sox talent and needs for 2016
|
|
|
Post by arzjake on Jul 19, 2015 12:22:36 GMT -5
Fixing the Red Sox (as in to contend in 2015) is quite frankly not possible at this point - but a lot can be done to augment the long term core in the next two weeks. I'm not going to talk about specific players to deal for (those are in the trade proposal threads), but quite simply list those players in the organization that should be moved for present options. First is that Victorino and DeAza need to be removed so that Jackie Bradley Jr can get the next two months proving that he can or cannot be the RF of the future in Boston. With his .317/.393/.474/.867 line in Pawtucket, I think he's earned that chance. Napoli doesn't have to be DFA'ed in my opinion, just shown the bench and we let Holt play 1b consistently (but of course if someone will give you anything of value for Napoli, you take it). I wouldn't hate trying Hanley at 1b either and bringing up Castillo too. The rotation NEEDS to be comprised of Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson and Owens for the rest of the year, assuming they're still in the organization. Miley I don't think will ever be more than a 4th or 5th starter, but he is still younger than 30, durable, and not really that expensive - Porcello needs to be fixed and that will only happen in the majors. The Sandy Leon experience needs to come to a close once Swihart is off the DL. Swihart catches Rodriguez, Johnson and Owens with whom he has a rapport (and is seen as a leader having caught them in the minors) while Hanigan gets to try and fix Porcello and Miley's starts can be split on matchups. We all know there is probably no chance that Buchholz is back prior to September, and since we missed whatever opportunity there was to trade "good Buchholz" for value with Leon, whatever percentage chance of that there was is out the window now. As such, Leon has only negative value on this team in taking development time away from Swihart. We certainly have players that I think could fetch a "Rodriguez" type return, so long as we think of that as the top 60ish prospect he came into last year as, not the guy who is presently our best pitcher. Examples of players that might net us that type of return this year are Tazawa, Uehara and Holt. I'm not giving any of them away, for sure, but if you can get a top 50 or better prospect for those guys, you do it. Rest of the season (ideally) looks like this: Betts - cf; Pedroia - 2b; Bogaerts - ss; Ortiz - dh; Ramirez - lf (or 1b); Sandoval - 3b; Holt 1b (or Castillo in LF); Bradley Jr - rf. The roation goes Porcello, Rodriguez, Johnson, Miley, Owens. The only untouchables in the system in AAA or above are Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart and Rodriguez. Bradley Jr, Owens, Johnson, Vazquez, and all of our legitimate prospects should be untouchable UNLESS you're getting young, cost controlled, effective starting pitching or a long term 1b option. The Problem I see with Bradley is, slow hands in the batting box? Anyone else think this ....
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 19, 2015 12:22:52 GMT -5
Patience is key for sure. They shouldn't be worried about the Ortiz era and winning the WS next year shouldn't be the priority. Improving the near term future should be.
Sandoval should be moved to 1b and Holt should play everyday at third. One are they should be looking is for young power arms like a Wade Davis type to pitch in the pen. These guys are incredibly valuable and under valued in my opinion because they aren't WAR drivers. The notion that bullpen arms are unreliable keeps prices down and it's true when you look at all bullpen arms as a group but the best guys are good year after year. Bullpen ERAs get skewed quickly because of sample size and in today's game the back of the bullpen is hugely valuable.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Jul 19, 2015 12:24:51 GMT -5
I think the last few posters are exactly right. We are clearly a flawed team in 2015, but one with a solid young core that can be tweaked for a better 2016.
My hopes would be: - Give Johnson a regular turn in the rotation for the rest of the year.
- Keep Wright in the Boston bullpen as the long man/spot starter.
- JBJ is our everyday RF starting Aug 1. DO NOT promote Castillo, though, unless he starts to perform consistently in AAA. Can't make one guy earn his promotion while the other flounders but gets the same chance.
- Release or salary dump Napoli, Victorino, Breslow
- Hanley at 1B is really scary to me, but I'd try him there a couple times just to see...not like we'd have anything to lose at that point and he can't be any more injury-prone there than LF.
- If any type of decent prospect is offered for Uehara, make the move
- Would love to see Masterson get meaningful innings out of the pen (7th/8th inning), in the hopes of moving him during the waiver period if possible for an A-ball, lottery ticket prospect.
- If a Holt plus prospect offer nets a future need (1B, P), then sell high on Holt and make the move.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 19, 2015 12:39:21 GMT -5
To clarify the comment about not winning the WS next year. I mean that because if they are contenders it's because their young core (Betts, Bogaerts, Johnson, Rodriguez and Swithart) along with the veterans that are here (Pedey, Holt and Pablo etc) make them one. Adding a Zimmerman makes no sense it's desperation and he's not that guy. He's showing to be solid not great this year and his numbers last year are skewed a bit by that no hitter.
|
|
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,446
|
Post by ianrs on Jul 19, 2015 13:00:17 GMT -5
I am in support of a few things, mostly focusing on preparing for 2016.
1. Trade or release players with less than one year of control remaining, before the deadline or during the waiver period (De Aza, Masterson [seems like he is a legitimate bullpen option], Napoli, Victorino). 2. Explore the market for Koji and Holt, but don't force anything. 3. Don't do anything dramatic, aka trade prospects for Cueto, Hamels. 4. Give the kids their chance. Mostly, I'm talking about JBJ in RF, Owens in the rotation. 5. Swihart and Castillo get reps in AAA for the rest of the season to work on their games, then are September call ups.
Also, just release Craig Breslow already and put us out of our misery.
|
|
|
Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Jul 19, 2015 13:00:31 GMT -5
ARZ - that's a great question and observation on Bradley Jr. Honestly, I have no idea. The last I saw was the "Scouting Scratch" on him from the middle of June. Chris talked about his improvements made in the box, and discussed that it was now time for him to get a legit chance in Boston.
I suppose I'm of the mind that, even if you're correct about his swing, it's not getting exposed (so therefore not correctly challenged) down in Pawtucket. As such, we should spend the rest of this season figuring out if there is anything that will get exposed in the majors, or if his change in approach can make him the .275/.325/.400/.725 type of player that would be exceptionally valuable with his defense.
If we aren't going to give him a chance in the majors this year, he should 100% be traded for some asset that we might give a shot to, but I think not giving him a chance would be a huge mistake.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2015 13:01:23 GMT -5
Patience is key for sure. They shouldn't be worried about the Ortiz era and winning the WS next year shouldn't be the priority. Improving the near term future should be. Sandoval should be moved to 1b and Holt should play everyday at third. One are they should be looking is for young power arms like a Wade Davis type to pitch in the pen. These guys are incredibly valuable and under valued in my opinion because they aren't WAR drivers. The notion that bullpen arms are unreliable keeps prices down and it's true when you look at all bullpen arms as a group but the best guys are good year after year. Bullpen ERAs get skewed quickly because of sample size and in today's game the back of the bullpen is hugely valuable. Sandoval is adequate offensively for 3b, for now, though I don't say that with a lot of conviction. The thought of putting him at a hitters' position like 1b isn't appealing. This will be the worst contract between Hanley, Porcello, and Panda in my opinion, when all is said and done.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,842
|
Post by wcp3 on Jul 19, 2015 13:22:03 GMT -5
Considering how much of a pitcher's league it is these days, the notion that he's "not good enough offensively for first base" is an outdated way of thinking about things.
Panda still moves well for his size, so there's some merit to the thought that he could become a very good defensive first baseman. If that's the case, and he's still a capable hitter, then the move could make some sense down the line.
|
|
|