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2015 Post-Draft Discussion Thread
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 30, 2015 11:24:33 GMT -5
Well, by my calculations, assuming Rei gets full slot and Noviello gets no more than $100,000 (seems reasonable based on Washington and Hamilton only getting $100k). They could allocate $217,990 to Valention and $250,000 to Brakeman. Not sure that gets it done, but they do have those funds. Otherwise, they will have to pick one of those two overslot guys to sign. Or maybe sign one and use the little bit remaining to sweeten the pot for some other draftee. Not sure who else is realistic that would require (and might be worth) more than $100k? Maybe Mangum or Nelson? Maybe Jenco, but he seems unlikely to sign for a reasonable number. Are you factoring in the Lakins bonus? I almost did the same thing. I'm coming out with about 250k if both Rei and Lakins get slot. I think I am, Chris. Attached is my spreadsheet. Feel free to check it out. Pretty sure I haven't omitted anything. I have both Rei and Lakins getting full slot. 2015 Sox draft.xlsx (20.56 KB) |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2015 11:35:15 GMT -5
Right, looking at that, I'm not sure where you're getting $468k from if both Lakins and Rei get slot.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 30, 2015 11:43:27 GMT -5
Right, looking at that, I'm not sure where you're getting $468k from if both Lakins and Rei get slot. The 5% overslot? Pretty sure they have no issues using that - $311,190. They save $205,500 on Taylor $158,500 on Tubbs $142,700 on Gunsolus $311,190 for 5% overlot For a total $817,890. Subtract $549,900 for Allen that should leave $150,000 extra for Brakeman and $117,990 extra for Valentin. |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 30, 2015 11:46:38 GMT -5
I ws sort of scratching my head about why lots of folks thought he was going for something under slot. Love you ASF, but this sounds like a bit of Monday Morning Quarterback. Picks 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 all came in under slot. 1 and 8 have not signed yet and they might also get under slot. The only pick in the top 10 so far not to get under slot so far has been Tyler Jay at #6, and he got slot. I don't think it was unreasonable to project slightly under slot, but it's still not surprising at all that he got slot value. Mike |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2015 11:58:58 GMT -5
Right, looking at that, I'm not sure where you're getting $468k from if both Lakins and Rei get slot. The 5% overslot? Pretty sure they have no issues using that - $311,190. They save $205,500 on Taylor $158,500 on Tubbs $142,700 on Gunsolus $311,190 for 5% overlot For a total $817,890. Subtract $549,900 for Allen that should leave $150 extra for Brakeman and $117,990 for Valentin. You had $250 for Brakeman and $218 for Valentin. Typos? In agreement with what you've got now. |
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Post by Steve Henley on Jun 30, 2015 12:04:09 GMT -5
Picks 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 all came in under slot. 1 and 8 have not signed yet and they might also get under slot. The only pick in the top 10 so far not to get under slot so far has been Tyler Jay at #6, and he got slot. Anyone who roots for the owners in a sports labor dispute is categorically a bad person. |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 30, 2015 12:06:12 GMT -5
The 5% overslot? Pretty sure they have no issues using that - $311,190. They save $205,500 on Taylor $158,500 on Tubbs $142,700 on Gunsolus $311,190 for 5% overlot For a total $817,890. Subtract $549,900 for Allen that should leave $150 extra for Brakeman and $117,990 for Valentin. You had $250 for Brakeman and $218 for Valentin. Typos? In agreement with what you've got now. $150K over the $100K slot = $250K allocated for Brakeman. Same thing for Valentin. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2015 12:27:05 GMT -5
Ahhhhhhhh right, sorry.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 30, 2015 12:28:59 GMT -5
I ws sort of scratching my head about why lots of folks thought he was going for something under slot. Love you ASF, but this sounds like a bit of Monday Morning Quarterback. Picks 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 all came in under slot. 1 and 8 have not signed yet and they might also get under slot. The only pick in the top 10 so far not to get under slot so far has been Tyler Jay at #6, and he got slot. I don't think it was unreasonable to project slightly under slot, but it's still not surprising at all that he got slot value. Mike Maybe that's why he fell to 7. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 30, 2015 12:30:14 GMT -5
Picks 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 all came in under slot. 1 and 8 have not signed yet and they might also get under slot. The only pick in the top 10 so far not to get under slot so far has been Tyler Jay at #6, and he got slot. Anyone who roots for the owners in a sports labor dispute is categorically a bad person. I wouldn't say that as much as that we're rooting for more prospects to be signed. I'll save the owner hatred for CBA negotiation debates. I don't think there is any siding with the owners on draft pick signings - they pretty much want to spend every penny they are allowed to every year. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 30, 2015 12:38:33 GMT -5
I don't know why I'm holding out hope for Lakins to go underslot.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 30, 2015 12:54:32 GMT -5
Updated Predictions. Signed1 (7) Andrew Benintendi $3,590,400 4 (111) Tate Matheny $512,700 5 (141) Jagger Rusconi $384,000 7 (201) Ben Taylor $10,000 8 (231) Logan Allen $725,000 9 (261) Tucker Tubbs $5,000 10 (291) Mitchell Gunsolus $10,000 11 (321) Nick Hamilton $100,000 12 (351) Kevin Kelleher <$100K 13 (381) Matt Kent <$100K 15 (441) Jerry Downs <$100K 17 (501) Chad De La Guerra <$100K 19 (561) Logan Boyd <$100K 21 (621) Danny Zandona <$100K 22 (651) Max Watt <$100K 23 (681) Kyri Washington <$100K 24 (711) Brad Stone <$100K 31 (921) Nick Duron <$100K 36 (1071) Trevor Kelley <$100K 37 (1101) Adam Lau <$100K Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus3 (81) Austin Rei $700,000 6 (171) Travis Lakins $287,500 After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)20 (591) Yomar Valentin $300,000 25 (741) Andrew Noviello $200,000 After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 14 (411) Bobby Poyner 35 (1041) Tyler Spoon Total spent towards cap using these projections: $6,524,600
Red Sox Cap: $6,223,800
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,534,990 Projected not to sign16 (471) Mark Brakeman 18 (531) James Nelson 26 (771) Kevin Ginkel 27 (801) Saige Jenco 28 (831) Steve Mangrum 29 (861) Will Stillman 30 (891) Jack Conley 32 (951) Clate Schmidt 33 (981) Cal Smith 34 (1011) Nick Lovullo 38 (1131) CJ Ballard 39 (1161) Daniel Reyes 40 (1191) DJ Artis |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2015 13:12:20 GMT -5
I don't know why I'm holding out hope for Lakins to go underslot. As a draft-eligible sophomore, I'd be surprised. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2015 13:22:08 GMT -5
So Noviello has apparently signed as of this morning.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 30, 2015 13:30:02 GMT -5
Very curious to hear what got.
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Post by templeusox on Jun 30, 2015 13:46:02 GMT -5
Can't wait for the Benintendi era to begin. He's gonna tear up NYPL fastballs.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 30, 2015 14:02:07 GMT -5
Can't wait for the Benintendi era to begin. He's gonna tear up NYPL fastballs. Yeah I think he'll mash. |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 30, 2015 14:30:20 GMT -5
Picks 2, 3, 4, 5, and 9 all came in under slot. 1 and 8 have not signed yet and they might also get under slot. The only pick in the top 10 so far not to get under slot so far has been Tyler Jay at #6, and he got slot. Anyone who roots for the owners in a sports labor dispute is categorically a bad person. My God.. Who exactly is on the side of the amateur player during trade/CBA negotiations Steve? MLBPA seems to bargain away their right's of amateur's 1st every time as I have pointed out time and time again, since they are not dues paying, card carrying union members. |
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Post by soxfan4life on Jun 30, 2015 14:59:23 GMT -5
As far as Benitendi tearing it up in the NYPL keep in mind that he will be using wooden bats for the first time.Trust me I will not complain if he does though
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Post by okin15 on Jun 30, 2015 15:09:40 GMT -5
Anyone who roots for the owners in a sports labor dispute is categorically a bad person. My God.. Who exactly is on the side of the amateur player during trade/CBA negotiations Steve? MLBPA seems to bargain away their right's of amateur's 1st every time as I have pointed out time and time again, since they are not dues paying, card carrying union members. And, to be fair, these kids have risked little at this point, and worked hard, but only for so long to get where they are. They're already making a ton of money. If it weren't for the draft, we might be paying more for potential talent than for established talent. Heck, that's already the case. Lots of draft picks get a million bucks, while third year players get ~500k. That's kinda nuts as it is if you think about it. |
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Post by soxfan4life on Jun 30, 2015 15:20:46 GMT -5
I wonder where they will rank Benitendi in the orgaization.Possibly top ten?I would say in the top twenty at least.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 30, 2015 15:46:36 GMT -5
I don't think there is any siding with the owners on draft pick signings - they pretty much want to spend every penny they allowed themselves to every year. FTFY. |
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Post by quintanariffic on Jun 30, 2015 15:56:19 GMT -5
I wonder where they will rank Benitendi in the orgaization.Possibly top ten?I would say in the top twenty at least. We should know tomorrow, but I'd be shocked if he were any higher than 9 (Kopech at 8) and any lower than 12 (Ball at 13). |
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Post by thegoo13 on Jun 30, 2015 16:28:33 GMT -5
I wonder where they will rank Benitendi in the orgaization.Possibly top ten?I would say in the top twenty at least. We should know tomorrow, but I'd be shocked if he were any higher than 9 (Kopech at 8) and any lower than 12 (Ball at 13). I'll say he debuts at #7 Forgot that Anderson Espinoza should come shooting up the list. I'll change to #8. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 30, 2015 16:57:05 GMT -5
I would rank Benintendi 8 above Kopech because of his floor, personally. Judgment call there IMO.
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