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2015 Post-Draft Discussion Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2015 14:42:42 GMT -5
@jimcallismlb: $130k, grasscourt: with the redsox now signing Brakeman...what did they sign Valentin for to not go over their budget? @mlbdraft Hmmm, leaves $80,490. Maybe Jenco? Or is that getting greedy? |
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 17, 2015 15:03:43 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheymancbs 52s53 seconds ago New York, USA
walker buehler, dodgers top pick, is said to have elbow issue.
Jim Callis @jimcallismlb 5m5 minutes ago
Source confirms that Walker Buehler is a done deal w/@dodgers. @mlbdraft
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Post by grasscourt on Jul 17, 2015 15:35:45 GMT -5
@jimcallismlb: $130k, grasscourt: with the redsox now signing Brakeman...what did they sign Valentin for to not go over their budget? @mlbdraft Hmmm, leaves $80,490. Maybe Jenco? Or is that getting greedy? Nothing wrong with a little greed |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 17, 2015 16:32:27 GMT -5
Reaffirming Callis and Speier:
JJ Cooper @jjcoop36
Red Sox signed Stanford RHP Marc Brakeman at the deadline.
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Post by myleskennefick on Jul 17, 2015 16:44:55 GMT -5
Nick Shumpert didn't sign with the Tigers.
@iamjoonlee: Source: Nick Shumpert, Mookie Betts’ cousin, did not sign with the #Tigers. Will attend JuCo San Jacinto instead of Kentucky. @blessyouboys
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 17:06:00 GMT -5
A comparison of big-bonus players from the drafts starting with 2012, when the new system was put in place. The number listed is the lowest of 1) actual slot drafted, 2) equivalent slot of the bonus paid, and 3) BA ranking (which applies to just Brakeman). Only players who signed for the lowest slot recommendation or higher are listed. College guys in red (italics = JuCo).
2012
14 Deven Marrero
31 Brian Johnson
37 Pat Light
38 Ty Buttrey
83 Jamie Callahan
118 Austin Maddox
2013
7 Trey Ball
25 Jon Denney
45 Teddy Stankiewicz
108 Myles Smith
117 Nick Longhi
130 Corey Litrell
173 Jordon Austin
198 Gabe Speier
2014
26 Michael Chavis
33 Michael Kopech
56 Sam Travis
97 Jake Cosart
116 Josh Ockimey
134 Kevin McAvoy
158 Devon Fisher
175 Kevin Steen
177 Trenton Kemp
194 Danny Mars
2015
7 Andrew Benintendi
68 Austin Rei
83 Logan Allen
107 Tate Matheny
141 Jagger Rusconi
141 Marc Brakeman
160 Travis Lakins
Not as lush a crop as the previous two years in terms of highly-paid or rated talent, but a deeper and possibly better haul than their last college-oriented crop, 2012, which is looking pretty solid now. Whether it proves to be better probably comes down to Benintendi versus Marrero, which right now seems like a big difference.
The international crop, though, is going to have a hard time matching last year's, even excluding Moncada and Castillo.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 17, 2015 17:21:28 GMT -5
A comparison of the drafts starting with 2012, when the new system was put in place. The number listed is the lowest of 1) actual slot drafted, 2) equivalent slot of the bonus paid, and 3) BA ranking (which applies to just Brakeman). Only players who signed for the lowest slot recommendation or higher are listed. College guys in red (italics = JuCo). 2012
14 Deven Marrero
31 Brian Johnson
37 Pat Light38 Ty Buttrey 83 Jamie Callahan 118 Austin Maddox
20137 Trey Ball 25 Jon Denney 45 Teddy Stankiewicz108 Myles Smith117 Nick Longhi 130 Corey Litrell173 Jordon Austin 198 Gabe Speier 201426 Michael Chavis 33 Michael Kopech 56 Sam Travis97 Jake Cosart116 Josh Ockimey 134 Kevin McAvoy158 Devon Fisher 175 Kevin Steen 177 Trenton Kemp 194 Danny Mars
20157 Andrew Benintendi
68 Austin Rei
107 Tate Matheny141 Jagger Rusconi 141 Marc BrakemanCertainly the thinnest crop in terms of highly-paid or rated talent. However, for college talent it approaches 2012, depending on how much you like Benintendi. Furthermore, the international crop is going to have a hard time matching last year's, even excluding Moncada and Castillo. Still, we're loaded in the low imors, of course. You're missing Logan allen and kyri Washington who were both top 150 on BAs list. Plus Lakins was 152 on PG. |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2015 19:33:46 GMT -5
A comparison of the drafts starting with 2012, when the new system was put in place. The number listed is the lowest of 1) actual slot drafted, 2) equivalent slot of the bonus paid, and 3) BA ranking (which applies to just Brakeman). Only players who signed for the lowest slot recommendation or higher are listed. College guys in red (italics = JuCo). 20157 Andrew Benintendi
68 Austin Rei
107 Tate Matheny141 Jagger Rusconi 141 Marc BrakemanYou're missing Logan allen and kyri Washington who were both top 150 on BAs list. Plus Lakins was 152 on PG. Thanks for that! I had Allen in my spreadsheet, just didn't get him when I filtered. Lakins I hadn't entered; lost track of when I last updated it. I'm omitting Washington, because he was in BA's top 250 but didn't get anywhere near what would be expected given his rankings -- <$100K versus $280K to $360K. I have to assume that every MLB team knew something BA and PG didn't, so he's a different class of player. I'll fix the listing (and amend my comment!). |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2015 20:30:57 GMT -5
You're missing Logan allen and kyri Washington who were both top 150 on BAs list. Plus Lakins was 152 on PG. Thanks for that! I had Allen in my spreadsheet, just didn't get him when I filtered. Lakins I hadn't entered; lost track of when I last updated it. I'm omitting Washington, because he was in BA's top 250 but didn't get anywhere near what would be expected given his rankings -- <$100K versus $280K to $360K. I have to assume that every MLB team knew something BA and PG didn't, so he's a different class of player. I'll fix the listing (and amend my comment!). What they knew might have been that he had no intention of going back to school though. Looking at this year, at least, I'd bet what happened with the post-10th guys is that they probably offered everyone $75k-$100k to sign now, or said if you want more we'll see what we have in the pool in mid-June, but no guarantees we're gonna sign you. Valentin and Brakeman waited. The rest signed. |
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 17, 2015 21:39:46 GMT -5
There has been nothing mentioned about what Noviello got in Bonus. Probably 100k.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2015 4:40:13 GMT -5
There has been nothing mentioned about what Noviello got in Bonus. Probably 100k. Yes. We've confirmed. $100k |
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 18, 2015 7:50:31 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2015 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history. (Although there have been some reports on Logan Allen's potential bonus). These have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 (7) Andrew Benintendi $3,000,000 3 (81) Austin Rei $700,000 4 (111) Tate Matheny $500,000 5 (141) Jagger Rusconi $384,000 6 (171) Travis Lakins $287,500 7 (201) Ben Taylor $10,000 8 (231) Logan Allen $725,000 9 (261) Tucker Tubbs $10,000 10 (291) Mitchell Gunsolus $25,000 After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 (321) Nick Hamilton $250,000 14 (411) Bobby Poyner $150,000 16 (471) Mark Brakeman $150,000 18 (531) James Nelson $200,00020 (591) Yomar Valentin $250,000 23 (681) Kyri Washington $400,000 25 (741) Andrew Noviello $150,000 After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 (351) Kevin Kelleher 13 (381) Matt Kent 15 (441) Jerry Downs 17 (501) Chad De La Guerra 19 (561) Logan Boyd 21 (621) Danny Zandona 22 (651) Max Watt 24 (711) Brad Stone 27 (801) Saige Jenco29 (861) Will Stillman
32 (951) Clate Schmidt
34 (1011) Nick Lovullo35 (1041) Tyler Spoon 36 (1071) Trevor Kelley 37 (1101) Adam Lau Total spent towards cap using these projections: $6,491,500
Red Sox Cap: $6,223,800
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,534,990
Super wicked early projected not to sign26 (771) Kevin Ginkel 28 (831) Steve Mangrum 30 (891) Jack Conley 31 (921) Nick Duron33 (981) Cal Smith 38 (1131) CJ Ballard 39 (1161) Daniel Reyes 40 (1191) DJ Artis Gotta say I did decent with my super wicked early gut check predictions that I posted immediately following the draft without any inside info. Missed a few late round guys and was definitely off on some of the bonuses, but was only $37K off on the final bill. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2015 11:41:29 GMT -5
Interesting that all of those late guys signed for under 100k. I wonder if they set out to identify guys who'd sign for that this year.
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Post by aboynamedkimandrew on Jul 18, 2015 15:44:09 GMT -5
Thanks for that! I had Allen in my spreadsheet, just didn't get him when I filtered. Lakins I hadn't entered; lost track of when I last updated it. I'm omitting Washington, because he was in BA's top 250 but didn't get anywhere near what would be expected given his rankings -- <$100K versus $280K to $360K. I have to assume that every MLB team knew something BA and PG didn't, so he's a different class of player. I'll fix the listing (and amend my comment!). What they knew might have been that he had no intention of going back to school though. Looking at this year, at least, I'd bet what happened with the post-10th guys is that they probably offered everyone $75k-$100k to sign now, or said if you want more we'll see what we have in the pool in mid-June, but no guarantees we're gonna sign you. Valentin and Brakeman waited. The rest signed. I'm not sure that strategy makes sense. The player would know they could always accept the $75K-$100K offer at the deadline. Unless we had nearly all 40 players willing to sign (and thus significantly exceeded available roster space) I can't imagine many cases of a player that wanted $200K being told at the deadline, "We're sorry that $100K offer is off the table." If the Sox thought he was worth at least $100K, he'd still be worth at least that much. Of course, that would be especially true if they thought he was worth more than $100K but they had other priorities to sign first and ran out of pool money. |
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Post by sammo420 on Jul 18, 2015 18:23:06 GMT -5
What they knew might have been that he had no intention of going back to school though. Looking at this year, at least, I'd bet what happened with the post-10th guys is that they probably offered everyone $75k-$100k to sign now, or said if you want more we'll see what we have in the pool in mid-June, but no guarantees we're gonna sign you. Valentin and Brakeman waited. The rest signed. I'm not sure that strategy makes sense. The player would know they could always accept the $75K-$100K offer at the deadline. Unless we had nearly all 40 players willing to sign (and thus significantly exceeded available roster space) I can't imagine many cases of a player that wanted $200K being told at the deadline, "We're sorry that $100K offer is off the table." If the Sox thought he was worth at least $100K, he'd still be worth at least that much. Of course, that would be especially true if they thought he was worth more than $100K but they had other priorities to sign first and ran out of pool money. My "guess" is he meant 75-100K over the first 100K that doesn't count against the pool. |
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