2015 Post-Draft Discussion Thread

GCL infield crisis averted!  Hallelujah!  

Great signing.  As stated we all loved Brakeman but it just wasn't likely with the remaining budget.

I swear you can not use Twitter to figure someone out. If you check Valentin profile he has committed to Auburn. Nothing about the Sox and when I scroll his pictures there is just one with a Sox's hat on. I figured it was one of those thanks for drafting me but going to school. Brakman doesn't really even post at all.

Maybe so, but I always wonder how much leverage he will have for negotiating as a senior even if he performs better...

I wonder if a market inefficiency right now is to draft good Seniors (are there any?) in the first three rounds and then low-ball them. Their only real option is Indy league.  I mean, even if Brakeman is pretty good next year, does he really have more value than this year?  He's a year older, with more miles on his arm at that point, and less development than if he were in the minors.

But he doesn't really have any leverage right now. The Red Sox aren't going to forfeit picks to sign him, so there is a number they literally will not go over, and they aren't going to sweat not signing their 16th round pick because it does nothing to the rest of their draft. If he goes back next year and plays his way into the first or second or even third round, the team expending that pick has a much higher incentive to get him signed, as it expended a high pick on him that it could have used on another talented player. Yes, the pick is protected, but there's still a gap in their draft for the current year where a talented player they could start developing now could be. At the very least, even if it's not a significantly higher incentive, there's still a higher incentive than what the Sox have right now.

It's really just whether he's willing to gamble on getting a higher bonus next year. If, say, Lakins signed for slot and Valentin signed for only $100k, that leaves a bonus of $367,990 as the maximum bonus they could offer him. If he thinks, by going back to school, that he can get, say, double that with a healthy season (pretty much a lock in the first two rounds, you'd think), it's probably worth it for him to take the risk.

He wouldn't necessarily be one more year away from the majors, though. He'd be getting another year of development, just in college rather than A Ball. The only way it would make a real difference is if he were good enough to fast track right out of the gate, and if that were the case he'd have been picked much earlier.

The other important thing here is his non-baseball downside isn't the same as most draftees. If he doesn't sign then blows out his arm next year, he's still got that Stanford degree. He's probably good for a $75K/year job right out of school. He's not going to be Matt Harrington.

Stevie Mangrum ‏@steven_mangrum
Honored that the Red Sox drafted me but I have decided to uphold my commitment to Virginia Tech.…

Red Sox officially announce Lakins and Valentin signings. I wouldn't hold out hope for anyone else.

yeah, that should pretty much do it.

Although, from the Draft History page...

By my math, they have $235,490 left on the 5% overage, so there might still be one more who signs for $335,490.

... unless Valentin's bonus is >100k

Never know, but I'd guess Valentin got over-slot based on the timing of his signing (this is the "ok, we have X left, let's see who's getting it" wave of signings). May not be the full amount remaining.

My guess is they're done. Frankly, this is late for them the last few years. Haven't been deadline day signings for the Sox since the new system was put in place. Doesn't mean it won't happen this year, but... doubtful.

He's going to the GCL, so probably not.

They signed 22 of their first 24 picks and 28 overall. That's about average, or little above, historically.