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2015 Post-Draft Discussion Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 30, 2015 18:01:38 GMT -5
Jim Callis @jimcallismlb 2m2 minutes ago 3rd-rder Austin Rei's bonus w/ redsox = $742,400 (full 81 slot). Washington C, best college defensive C in @mlbdraft, some bat potential too
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 30, 2015 18:11:27 GMT -5
My God.. Who exactly is on the side of the amateur player during trade/CBA negotiations Steve? MLBPA seems to bargain away their right's of amateur's 1st every time as I have pointed out time and time again, since they are not dues paying, card carrying union members. And, to be fair, these kids have risked little at this point, and worked hard, but only for so long to get where they are. They're already making a ton of money. If it weren't for the draft, we might be paying more for potential talent than for established talent. Heck, that's already the case. Lots of draft picks get a million bucks, while third year players get ~500k. That's kinda nuts as it is if you think about it. Some get 10k also, as we saw. My points are the only real concession the MLBPA has gotten for amateur players, or minor league kids is that they can become FA after 4y of toiling within an organization rather than 6y and that's it for how many negotiation periods? How many times has the league minimum salary increased to over half a million dollars, as it currently stands? Why can't the Union, which is supposed to stand for the "working class" do just that for ONCE with future employees of it's organization? Is it because these silent people just don't pay dues yet and have a vote? They just don't matter, so their rights can be trampled on by both sides and be abused by BOTH sides and treated like second class citizens? I have ideas and always have with regards to solutions and it's a"peoples of the middle way" as well. The MLBPA and Clubs should have their own housing, at all levels for it's players located close to minor league fields. Not that expensive and better than having players spread all over town. Walking distance would be best, but bus transport to games would work also. MiLB teams used to do this in some ways. Believe the Sox GCL team still uses dorm housing for players? Team could lease older hotels, or rooms of a hotel for all of it's players near location of each stadium. Each and every team in the league could be doing this. Both parties refuse to address the issue of housing and pay. It is not just the fault of one side.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 30, 2015 18:30:35 GMT -5
The Sox announce five signings:
Benintendi Rei Poyner Noviello Spoon
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 30, 2015 20:23:04 GMT -5
Woooo Benny Baseball!
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Post by quintanariffic on Jun 30, 2015 21:46:03 GMT -5
I would rank Benintendi 8 above Kopech because of his floor, personally. Judgment call there IMO. Fair enough - it will be close. Given that Kopech was a 1st rounder himself, whose stuff has subsequently played up due to mechanical tweaks and who is performing very well in full-season ball at age 19, I'll say Kopech by a nose.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 30, 2015 22:58:56 GMT -5
Well, the SP brass have indeed put Benintendi ahead of Kopech (at 7 because Swihart graduated). More interesting to me is that they put his floor at 4 ("Impactful Bench Player"). That seems absurdly optimistic to me - anyone who has never hit with a wooden bat before has got to have a realistic chance to not have an MLB career.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 30, 2015 22:59:54 GMT -5
My 2 cents before we get yelled at: He's a top prospect, but he has done literally nothing so far. I say number 12. You don't want to hear it, but he has to prove something first.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 30, 2015 23:59:47 GMT -5
Well, the SP brass have indeed put Benintendi ahead of Kopech (at 7 because Swihart graduated). More interesting to me is that they put his floor at 4 ("Impactful Bench Player"). That seems absurdly optimistic to me - anyone who has never hit with a wooden bat before has got to have a realistic chance to not have an MLB career. Lets ease up on the wooden bat business. Not to say it doesn't matter at all, but his numbers in the SEC simply can't be discounted when they are better than every other players'. I don't think its that crazy to say that the worst case scenario (barring unforeseen injury) is that of a bench player.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 1, 2015 0:20:01 GMT -5
Well, the SP brass have indeed put Benintendi ahead of Kopech (at 7 because Swihart graduated). More interesting to me is that they put his floor at 4 ("Impactful Bench Player"). That seems absurdly optimistic to me - anyone who has never hit with a wooden bat before has got to have a realistic chance to not have an MLB career. Lets ease up on the wooden bat business. Not to say it doesn't matter at all, but his numbers in the SEC simply can't be discounted when they are better than every other players'. I don't think its that crazy to say that the worst case scenario (barring unforeseen injury) is that of a bench player. Marrero has never hit with wooden bats either, other than a bit over 1/3 of a season at Portland in 2014.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 1, 2015 0:33:56 GMT -5
My point is not so much about the wooden bats, it's more that he has never played professionally and the way to the majors is long, even for an advanced college player. You can certainly give him a lower bust chance then other draftees but it's definitely not 0%.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,200
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Post by jimoh on Jul 1, 2015 3:33:19 GMT -5
Lets ease up on the wooden bat business. Not to say it doesn't matter at all, but his numbers in the SEC simply can't be discounted when they are better than every other players'. I don't think its that crazy to say that the worst case scenario (barring unforeseen injury) is that of a bench player. Marrero has never hit with wooden bats either, other than a bit over 1/3 of a season at Portland in 2014. Marrero had an ops of about 780 his last two years of college.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 1, 2015 7:37:06 GMT -5
Marrero has never hit with wooden bats either, other than a bit over 1/3 of a season at Portland in 2014. Marrero had an ops of about 780 his last two years of college. ....and yet he is a bench player should be the conclusion to your sentence.
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Post by jmei on Jul 1, 2015 8:17:51 GMT -5
My point is not so much about the wooden bats, it's more that he has never played professionally and the way to the majors is long, even for an advanced college player. You can certainly give him a lower bust chance then other draftees but it's definitely not 0%. This is a straw man. No one is saying he has a 0% bust rate. Every player/prospect has bust potential, even established major leaguers. We're talking about reasonable floors here. Think a 20th percentile projection (and a ceiling as an 80th percentile projection).
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 1, 2015 8:46:00 GMT -5
I think Benintendi is the most advanced player moving entering the pros that the Red Sox have drafted in my baseball-watching life. Garciaparra is the only possible other choice - and he was in the majors 26 months after being drafted. I would be totally unsurprised to see him in the majors at midseason 2017.
Also, college stats and scouting matter. They are playing the same game, and the new composite bats they started using play much closer to wood than the aluminum ones.
The Red Sox have an absolutely ridiculous amount of under-25 position player talent who I could reasonably see winning an MVP award someday: Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi are all that good. Maybe Margot too.
Unrelated side note: We're seeing this year how hard it is to evaluate drafts immediately. With the re-emergence of Light and Buttrey and the continued improvement of Johnson the 2012 draft, amazingly, looks pretty good right now.
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Post by mannofsteele on Jul 1, 2015 9:44:49 GMT -5
Is Brakeman completely impossible at this point? I'm not sure how much remaining cap is available to play with.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 1, 2015 13:48:41 GMT -5
Is Brakeman completely impossible at this point? I'm not sure how much remaining cap is available to play with. I thought that we had a couple hundred thousand extra in addition to the 100K base for each player. I think at this point, because of Benintendi and a few other recent signings getting slot, I think that we will only be able to get EITHER Brakeman or Valentin. I imagine that if we shift all of the remaining money to one of those players that one of them will sign, and my uneducated guess is more likely that it'll be Valentin.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2015 14:21:07 GMT -5
As written in our post on yesterday's signings, the club has $555,490 remaining to sign Lakins (slot value: $287,500) and to put toward bonuses after the 10th. If you assume Lakins gets slot, that's $267,990, so if it's put toward one bonus, that's $367,990. Put toward two, it's like, $200,000 and $267,990. We'll see if that buys anything.
(This is using cap + 5%, btw)
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 639
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Post by alnipper on Jul 1, 2015 19:12:33 GMT -5
I think Benintendi is the most advanced player moving entering the pros that the Red Sox have drafted in my baseball-watching life. Garciaparra is the only possible other choice - and he was in the majors 26 months after being drafted. I would be totally unsurprised to see him in the majors at midseason 2017. Also, college stats and scouting matter. They are playing the same game, and the new composite bats they started using play much closer to wood than the aluminum ones. The Red Sox have an absolutely ridiculous amount of under-25 position player talent who I could reasonably see winning an MVP award someday: Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi are all that good. Maybe Margot too. Unrelated side note: We're seeing this year how hard it is to evaluate drafts immediately. With the re-emergence of Light and Buttrey and the continued improvement of Johnson the 2012 draft, amazingly, looks pretty good right now.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 639
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Post by alnipper on Jul 1, 2015 19:18:45 GMT -5
I think Craig Hansen and Ellsbury were more advanced coming out of a draft. Obviously, one ended up not being a very good player. I agree on all your future potential MVP's. Maybe next year we can draft another MVP.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,200
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Post by jimoh on Jul 1, 2015 19:38:37 GMT -5
Marrero had an ops of about 780 his last two years of college. ....and yet he is a bench player should be the conclusion to your sentence. Actually I should have said Marrero ONLY had an OPS of about 780 his last two years of college (780 is not so hot in college), whereas Benintendi had an OPS of 1200 this year. Sorry that the point wasn't clear.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 2, 2015 3:20:14 GMT -5
....and yet he is a bench player should be the conclusion to your sentence. Actually I should have said Marrero ONLY had an OPS of about 780 his last two years of college (780 is not so hot in college), whereas Benintendi had an OPS of 1200 this year. Sorry that the point wasn't clear. Agreed, and I meant that despite that low OPS, and his inability to consistently put up good offensive numbers, he has still reached more or less the floor we are giving Benintendi. I think we're on the same page, sorry for also being vague.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 2, 2015 3:56:45 GMT -5
Agreed, and I meant that despite that low OPS, and his inability to consistently put up good offensive numbers, he has still reached more or less the floor we are giving Benintendi. I think we're on the same page, sorry for also being vague. Marrero so far has reached 3 on the SP.com scale ("up and down player"), not 4 (" impactful bench player").
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 2, 2015 10:12:21 GMT -5
I think Benintendi is the most advanced player moving entering the pros that the Red Sox have drafted in my baseball-watching life. Garciaparra is the only possible other choice - and he was in the majors 26 months after being drafted. I would be totally unsurprised to see him in the majors at midseason 2017. Also, college stats and scouting matter. They are playing the same game, and the new composite bats they started using play much closer to wood than the aluminum ones. The Red Sox have an absolutely ridiculous amount of under-25 position player talent who I could reasonably see winning an MVP award someday: Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi are all that good. Maybe Margot too. Unrelated side note: We're seeing this year how hard it is to evaluate drafts immediately. With the re-emergence of Light and Buttrey and the continued improvement of Johnson the 2012 draft, amazingly, looks pretty good right now. Dustin Pedroia was at least as advanced as Benintendi, imo. He was seen as having a low ceiling, but he was very advanced. It's at least arguable ... Pedroia just ****ing destroyed A-ball, too, iirc. These things are a little more clear in retrospect, anyway. Brian Johnson was seen by some as "advanced" but now is probably more seen as a two-way player that had to develop a bit as a pitcher.
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Post by azblue on Jul 2, 2015 10:19:00 GMT -5
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 2, 2015 10:39:21 GMT -5
Really? .400/.474/.560 in A ball and .336/.417/.523 in High-A. Maybe he didn't "destroy" them, only thrashed them within an inch of their life?
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